| 116.953 | What will be the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 116.322 | How many gold medals will the United States win at the 2022 International Math Olympiad? | Continuous |
| 114.246 | When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0? | Continuous |
| 109.949 | What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be? | Continuous |
| 95.540 | How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022? | Continuous |
| 94.951 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (COVID-19) | Continuous |
| 93.441 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Borussia Dortmund) | Binary |
| 92.970 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 91.100 | How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024? | Continuous |
| 90.089 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Flu) | Continuous |
| 90.050 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (RSV) | Continuous |
| 89.409 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Florida) | Continuous |
| 88.992 | How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 88.870 | How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 87.393 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Ian Nepomniachtchi) | Binary |
| 87.393 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Fabiano Caruana) | Binary |
| 87.393 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu) | Binary |
| 87.393 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hikaru Nakamura) | Binary |
| 87.393 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vishwanathan Anand) | Binary |
| 87.393 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexander Grischuk) | Binary |
| 87.393 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Maxime Vachier-Lagrave) | Binary |
| 87.393 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda) | Binary |
| 87.393 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nihal Sarin) | Binary |
| 87.393 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vidit Gujrathi) | Binary |
| 87.393 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Etienne Bacrot) | Binary |
| 87.393 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vladimir Fedoseev) | Binary |
| 87.393 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Yuriy Kuzubov) | Binary |
| 86.553 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Combined) | Continuous |
| 86.269 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Illinois for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 85.987 | Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023? | Binary |
| 85.597 | Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU? | Binary |
| 84.671 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Pennsylvania for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 84.593 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Colorado for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 84.516 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
New York for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 83.724 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
California for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 83.611 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Dallas Mavericks) | Binary |
| 83.458 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 83.456 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Sam Sevian) | Binary |
| 83.456 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Levon Aronian) | Binary |
| 83.456 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vincent Keymer) | Binary |
| 83.456 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hans Niemann) | Binary |
| 83.456 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexandr Predke) | Binary |
| 83.245 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Pennsylvania) | Continuous |
| 82.846 | Respiratory "Tripledemic" (4 Weeks) 2023-24? (Yes) → Peak Respiratory Magnitudes 2023-2024? (Combined) | Continuous |
| 82.661 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Illinois) | Continuous |
| 82.659 | When will VDH’s frequency of COVID-19 case reporting switch to weekly or less? | Continuous |
| 82.036 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Massachusetts) | Continuous |
| 81.935 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Paris Saint-Germain) | Binary |
| 81.808 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Flu) | Continuous |
| 81.504 | LLM passes ARA before 2025? (No) → LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 81.309 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Texas) | Continuous |
| 80.630 | When will the CDC eliminate quarantine restrictions for close contacts of COVID-19 cases? | Continuous |
| 80.415 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Florida for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 79.812 | What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 78.785 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (California) | Continuous |
| 78.699 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Manchester City) | Continuous |
| 78.543 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (New York) | Continuous |
| 78.497 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (COVID-19) | Continuous |
| 78.304 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Texas for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 78.245 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Everton) | Continuous |
| 77.480 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Washington) | Continuous |
| 77.423 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Bayern Munich) | Binary |
| 77.096 | Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022? | Binary |
| 77.009 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Combined) | Continuous |
| 76.715 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Colorado) | Continuous |
| 76.477 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Minnesota Timberwolves) | Binary |
| 76.102 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Massachusetts for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 75.285 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Indiana Pacers) | Binary |
| 75.242 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur) | Continuous |
| 75.199 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Amin Tabatabaei) | Binary |
| 75.199 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Richard Rapport) | Binary |
| 75.199 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov) | Binary |
| 74.711 | Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023? | Binary |
| 74.563 | What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022? | Continuous |
| 74.258 | What will the world population be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 74.141 | Will Erling Haaland score the most goals in the 2023/24 Premier League season? | Binary |
| 73.111 | Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? | Binary |
| 72.873 | What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 72.763 | When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022? | Continuous |
| 72.138 | Will 2022 be the hottest year on record? | Binary |
| 72.042 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (New York Knicks) | Binary |
| 71.722 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Oklahoma City Thunder) | Binary |
| 70.960 | How many additional indictments will have been filed against Donald Trump on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 70.857 | How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 70.714 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Washington for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 70.512 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Cleveland Cavaliers) | Binary |
| 70.410 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Burnley) | Continuous |
| 69.766 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023? | Binary |
| 69.286 | What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 68.651 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Crystal Palace) | Continuous |
| 67.887 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Magnus Carlsen) | Binary |
| 67.887 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Arjun Erigaisi) | Binary |
| 67.887 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Andre Esipenko) | Binary |
| 67.852 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Barcelona) | Binary |
| 67.547 | Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023? | Binary |
| 67.488 | Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023? | Binary |
| 67.084 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Manchester United) | Continuous |
| 66.462 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Orlando Magic) | Binary |
| 66.335 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Luton Town) | Continuous |
| 66.309 | When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify? | Continuous |
| 65.796 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers) | Continuous |
| 65.404 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Philadelphia 76ers) | Binary |
| 64.205 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (New Orleans Pelicans) | Binary |
| 63.725 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (West Ham United) | Continuous |
| 63.302 | What will the price of oil be for December 2022? | Continuous |
| 63.041 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Liverpool) | Continuous |
| 62.386 | What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 62.255 | How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| 62.141 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Athletico Madrid) | Binary |
| 61.838 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Los Angeles Clippers) | Binary |
| 61.493 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Fulham) | Continuous |
| 61.016 | Trump Removed or Blocked From Primary Ballot? (No) → 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 60.572 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Donald Norcross (D)) | Binary |
| 60.572 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Josh Gottheimer (D)) | Binary |
| 60.572 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Frank Pallone (D)) | Binary |
| 60.572 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Bonnie Watson Coleman (D)) | Binary |
| 60.572 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Lt. Governor Tahesha Way (D)) | Binary |
| 60.572 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (NJ First Lady Tammy Murphy (D)) | Binary |
| 60.263 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Sacremento Kings) | Binary |
| 60.221 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Chicago Bulls) | Binary |
| 60.131 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nijat Abasov) | Binary |
| 60.131 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Wesley So) | Binary |
| 60.033 | What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 59.708 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Chelsea) | Continuous |
| 59.477 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Atlanta Hawks) | Binary |
| 59.297 | When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally? | Continuous |
| 59.119 | What will the estimated number of people (in millions) in severe food insecurity be in 2022, according to the 2023 FAO “State of food security and nutrition in the world” annual report? | Continuous |
| 59.030 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Miami Heat) | Binary |
| 58.847 | How many of Virginia's 133 communities will be experiencing moderate or higher levels of community transmission as of 7 March 2022? | Continuous |
| 58.762 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (State Senate Majority Leader Teresa Ruiz (D)) | Binary |
| 58.762 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Vacant) | Binary |
| 58.474 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Arsenal) | Continuous |
| 58.404 | What will the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth be in the G7 countries in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 58.357 | What percent of the world population will use the internet in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 58.334 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan) | Binary |
| 58.195 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Newcastle United) | Continuous |
| 57.355 | What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 57.262 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Google Deep Mind) | Binary |
| 57.195 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 56.643 | What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022? | Continuous |
| 56.503 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Inter Milan) | Binary |
| 56.470 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (PSV) | Binary |
| 56.451 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Arsenal) | Binary |
| 56.177 | Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025? | Binary |
| 55.914 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
| 55.911 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Napoli) | Binary |
| 55.911 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Porto) | Binary |
| 55.766 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Aston Villa) | Continuous |
| 55.655 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Brooklyn Nets) | Binary |
| 55.655 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Houston Rockets) | Binary |
| 55.604 | Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022? | Binary |
| 55.268 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Los Angeles Lakers) | Binary |
| 54.867 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Phoenix Suns) | Binary |
| 54.605 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Golden State Warriors) | Binary |
| 54.462 | Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season? | Binary |
| 54.434 | If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day? | Binary |
| 53.615 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Copenhagen) | Binary |
| 53.152 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (RB Leipzig) | Binary |
| 53.100 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Mikie Sherrill (D)) | Binary |
| 53.100 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Andy Kim (D)) | Binary |
| 52.802 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Milwaukee Bucks) | Binary |
| 52.728 | India Acts in Pakistan by 2024 Election? (No) → Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025? | Binary |
| 52.690 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Sociedad) | Binary |
| 52.689 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lazio) | Binary |
| 52.436 | By what percentage will the total US yearly retail sales of plant-based meat in 2022 grow compared to 2020? | Continuous |
| 52.411 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Missouri for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 52.391 | What will be the exchange rate for the Swedish Krona (SEK) to the US Dollar (USD) on June 30, 2024? | Continuous |
| 52.220 | When will US office workplace occupancy reach >50% of pre-pandemic levels? | Continuous |
| 52.061 | Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022? | Binary |
| 51.985 | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 51.423 | Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 51.157 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Toronto Raptors) | Binary |
| 51.157 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Utah Jazz) | Binary |
| 50.985 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 50.400 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dwayne Johnson) | Binary |
| 50.400 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mark Cuban) | Binary |
| 50.400 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mitt Romney) | Binary |
| 50.400 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Manchin) | Binary |
| 50.365 | How many active United Nations peacekeeping missions will there be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 49.574 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Charlotte Hornets) | Binary |
| 48.922 | How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? | Continuous |
| 48.812 | How many emergency department overdose visits will there be in Q1 2022 in Virginia? | Continuous |
| 48.766 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Memphis Grizzlies) | Binary |
| 48.739 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Brighton And Hove Albion) | Continuous |
| 48.700 | How many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023? | Continuous |
| 48.314 | Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (China) | Binary |
| 48.314 | Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (European Union) | Binary |
| 48.314 | Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (United States) | Binary |
| 47.105 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Portland Trail Blazers) | Binary |
| 46.952 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| 46.881 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 46.472 | Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 46.184 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Brentford) | Continuous |
| 45.987 | What will Rivian's market cap be at the close of trading on 20 April 2022? | Continuous |
| 45.064 | Will India conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 Indian general elections? | Binary |
| 44.898 | Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta? | Binary |
| 44.788 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Terry Gou (Independent)) | Binary |
| 44.570 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Renew) | Binary |
| 44.570 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Greens–EFA) | Binary |
| 44.570 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ECR) | Binary |
| 44.570 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ID) | Binary |
| 44.570 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (GUE-NGL) | Binary |
| 44.423 | Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled? | Binary |
| 44.252 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Washington Wizards) | Binary |
| 44.121 | Which country will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics? | Multiple Choice |
| 43.955 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Detroit Pistons) | Binary |
| 43.733 | What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 43.678 | How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (February 2023) | Continuous |
| 43.477 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (San Antonio Spurs) | Binary |
| 43.330 | How many total arm sales to Taiwan will the US State Department approve between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 43.316 | What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2022) | Continuous |
| 43.280 | By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 43.229 | What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 42.895 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Washington for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 42.805 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Denver Nuggets) | Binary |
| 42.666 | How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 41.984 | Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025? | Binary |
| 41.560 | What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Feb-2023) | Continuous |
| 40.394 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024? | Binary |
| 40.392 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Donald Trump) | Continuous |
| 40.057 | How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? | Continuous |
| 39.911 | How many level 2 or greater public charging stations will be available for light vehicles in the United States at the beginning of the listed year? (2025) | Continuous |
| 39.839 | Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment? | Binary |
| 39.839 | Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025? | Binary |
| 39.790 | Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 39.737 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Sep-24) | Continuous |
| 39.361 | Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024? | Binary |
| 39.264 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Ko Wen-je (TPP)) | Binary |
| 38.974 | How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| 38.964 | When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO? | Continuous |
| 38.714 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 38.104 | How many weeks will Virginia experience “widespread” influenza activity during the 2021-2022 flu season? | Continuous |
| 38.059 | Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 38.059 | Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 38.001 | Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
| 37.809 | What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022? | Continuous |
| 37.467 | By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 37.419 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Sheffield United) | Continuous |
| 36.785 | What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 36.616 | Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 36.522 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 36.140 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Rams) | Binary |
| 35.795 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester City) | Binary |
| 35.727 | How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024? | Continuous |
| 35.361 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data? | Continuous |
| 35.358 | Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 35.160 | Will 2022 be warmer than 2021? | Binary |
| 34.800 | What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review? | Continuous |
| 34.400 | What will the disclosed global venture capital investment in cultivated meat companies be in 2022 (in millions of USD)? | Continuous |
| 34.305 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Colorado for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 34.188 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Aug-24) | Continuous |
| 34.153 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Bournemouth) | Continuous |
| 34.009 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Chicago Bears) | Binary |
| 33.908 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Denver Broncos) | Binary |
| 33.868 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | Binary |
| 33.501 | What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list? | Continuous |
| 33.290 | Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 32.779 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 32.727 | What percent of US adults will report having received an updated COVID booster vaccine for the 2023-2024 season on the following dates? (March 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 32.720 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Pittsburgh Steelers) | Binary |
| 32.614 | Musk Chairman Of Twitter in 2024? (Yes) → Twitter Public Company in May 2024? | Binary |
| 32.578 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 32.374 | Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 32.374 | Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 32.373 | Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 32.373 | Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 32.372 | Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 32.371 | Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 32.371 | Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 32.371 | Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 32.370 | Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 32.369 | Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 32.235 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 32.091 | By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 32.025 | Will the EPA grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025? | Binary |
| 31.809 | What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 31.775 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Las Vegas Raiders) | Binary |
| 31.661 | What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list? | Continuous |
| 31.581 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Indianapolis Colts) | Binary |
| 31.206 | By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 30.954 | How many Japanese Air Force responses to Chinese military threats there will be by 2024? | Continuous |
| 30.949 | Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023? | Binary |
| 30.913 | What will be the total capacity (in GW) for all operational offshore windfarms in the UK on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 30.817 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Hou Yu-ih (Kuomintang)) | Binary |
| 30.686 | Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 30.686 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement? | Binary |
| 30.363 | Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023? | Binary |
| 30.023 | Will Spain announce a snap general election before March 2024? | Binary |
| 29.836 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Senator Bob Menendez (D)) | Binary |
| 29.577 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Kansas City Chiefs) | Binary |
| 29.014 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (S&D) | Binary |
| 28.670 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Minnesota Vikings) | Binary |
| 28.661 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Atlanta Falcons) | Binary |
| 27.984 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New York Giants) | Binary |
| 27.770 | What will be the total number of air incursions into the ADIZ between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 27.563 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 27.519 | What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15? | Continuous |
| 27.241 | Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023? | Binary |
| 26.482 | Will the Sacramento Kings advance to the second round of the NBA playoffs in 2024? | Binary |
| 26.267 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (San Francisco 49ers) | Binary |
| 26.192 | What will be the US labor force participation rate for the May 2024? | Continuous |
| 25.931 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest) | Continuous |
| 25.675 | Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023? | Binary |
| 25.456 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Cleveland Browns) | Binary |
| 24.762 | By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty? | Binary |
| 24.692 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (EPP) | Binary |
| 24.584 | Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 24.483 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (New Glenn) | Continuous |
| 24.239 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Arizona Cardinals) | Binary |
| 24.096 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election? | Binary |
| 24.056 | When will the UK hold its next general election? | Continuous |
| 23.475 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
California for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 23.165 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 23.029 | What will the UK consumer price inflation rate for April 2024 be? | Continuous |
| 22.991 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New Orleans Saints) | Binary |
| 22.991 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Seattle Seahawks) | Binary |
| 22.904 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (July-24) | Continuous |
| 22.822 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
| 22.755 | What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500? | Continuous |
| 22.629 | Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024? | Binary |
| 22.435 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
| 22.125 | When will WHO recommend widespread use of a malaria vaccine that is >75% effective? | Continuous |
| 22.061 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Lai Ching-te (DPP)) | Binary |
| 22.041 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Washington Commanders) | Binary |
| 21.948 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Tennessee Titans) | Binary |
| 21.813 | Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 21.811 | Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 21.753 | Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024? | Binary |
| 21.722 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Buffalo Bills) | Binary |
| 21.674 | What will the Men's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be? | Continuous |
| 21.433 | What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID deaths in the US before 2022 April 1? | Continuous |
| 21.051 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 21.039 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (June-24) | Continuous |
| 21.023 | What will be the Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature (in degrees Celsius) be for May 2024? | Continuous |
| 20.821 | Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022? | Binary |
| 20.796 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Florida for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 20.711 | Will average NAEP reading and math scores across 4th and 8th grades decline in 2024 compared to 2022? | Binary |
| 20.278 | Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination? (Yes) → Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? | Binary |
| 20.213 | What will be the average monthly rate of US workforce resignations in 2022? | Continuous |
| 20.193 | Will Belfast (2021) win the 2022 Best Picture Oscar? | Binary |
| 19.993 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New York Jets) | Binary |
| 19.706 | Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta? | Binary |
| 19.504 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 19.504 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
| 19.504 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 19.481 | What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Feb-2023) | Continuous |
| 19.274 | What percentage of the African Union’s budget will be contributed by its member states in the budget for fiscal year 2025? | Continuous |
| 19.062 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
| 19.028 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New England Patriots) | Binary |
| 19.003 | Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (BJP) | Binary |
| 19.003 | Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (INC) | Binary |
| 18.698 | Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023? | Binary |
| 18.612 | Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022? | Binary |
| 18.266 | When will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space? | Continuous |
| 18.208 | COVID VOC or Worse Before March 1, 2024? (No) → Peak Respiratory Magnitudes 2023-2024? (COVID-19) | Continuous |
| 18.177 | When will San Francisco County lift their mask mandate? | Continuous |
| 18.105 | Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates? | Binary |
| 18.031 | What will be the largest cultivated meat production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single facility by January 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 18.002 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (GUE-NGL) | Binary |
| 18.001 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Renew) | Binary |
| 18.001 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Greens–EFA) | Binary |
| 18.001 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ECR) | Binary |
| 18.001 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ID) | Binary |
| 17.680 | How many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025? | Continuous |
| 17.615 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 17.138 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (May-24) | Continuous |
| 17.074 | How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? | Continuous |
| 16.907 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Chargers) | Binary |
| 16.613 | What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14? | Continuous |
| 16.517 | What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Aug-24) | Continuous |
| 16.064 | How much money will the FTX Foundation distribute in 2023? | Continuous |
| 15.944 | Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024? | Binary |
| 15.813 | Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022? | Binary |
| 15.679 | How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 15.656 | What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (Dec-23) | Continuous |
| 15.639 | Will a major political party leave the I.N.D.I.A. alliance before the next Indian general election? | Binary |
| 15.632 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 15.632 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 15.632 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 15.632 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 15.632 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
| 15.632 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
| 15.632 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
| 15.428 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 15.428 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 15.396 | What will be the total bilateral commitments of Ukraine support (in billions of EUR) on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 15.235 | How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? | Continuous |
| 15.196 | Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025? | Binary |
| 15.147 | Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022? | Binary |
| 15.140 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 14.638 | When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100? | Continuous |
| 14.626 | Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023? | Binary |
| 14.601 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Carolina Panthers) | Binary |
| 14.489 | Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 14.414 | Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025? | Binary |
| 14.348 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Shakhtar Donetsk) | Binary |
| 14.348 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Newcastle United) | Binary |
| 14.348 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (AC Milan) | Binary |
| 14.317 | Will an additional state join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 14.087 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, optional) | Binary |
| 14.087 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, optional) | Binary |
| 14.087 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, optional) | Binary |
| 14.005 | What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based eggs be in the U.S. in 2022? | Continuous |
| 13.886 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester United) | Binary |
| 13.886 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Galatasaray) | Binary |
| 13.876 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Braga) | Binary |
| 13.858 | Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022? | Binary |
| 13.789 | When will the next German government be formed? | Continuous |
| 13.759 | Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads? | Binary |
| 13.742 | Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025? | Binary |
| 13.647 | What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (Nov-23) | Continuous |
| 13.525 | Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023? | Binary |
| 13.407 | How many OpenAI or Anthropic model versions will be released between December 1, 2023 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 13.366 | Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022? | Binary |
| 13.177 | By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 13.172 | How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"? | Continuous |
| 13.063 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, not optional) | Binary |
| 13.063 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, not optional) | Binary |
| 13.037 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (S&D) | Binary |
| 13.023 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Cincinnati Bengals) | Binary |
| 12.829 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 12.829 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
| 12.372 | What percent of children under 8 months of age will surveyed parents report having received nirsevimab on the following dates? (March 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 12.069 | Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024? | Binary |
| 12.054 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (EPP) | Binary |
| 11.845 | What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (August 2024) | Continuous |
| 11.656 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Detroit Lions) | Binary |
| 11.655 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Morocco) | Binary |
| 11.655 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay-Argentina-Chile-Paraguay) | Binary |
| 11.655 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Ukraine-Morocco) | Binary |
| 11.655 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Egypt-Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 11.655 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 11.325 | What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Jul-24) | Continuous |
| 11.150 | Will Dutch supermarket Albert Heijn still sell crompouces by April 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 11.116 | Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 10.813 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Ariane 6) | Continuous |
| 10.755 | What will be the lowest monthly value for US total capacity utilization in 2023? | Continuous |
| 10.312 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Jacksonville Jaguars) | Binary |
| 10.254 | What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (Thai AI super rice - Min) | Continuous |
| 10.179 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD)) | Binary |
| 10.179 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska) | Binary |
| 10.178 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 10.178 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota) | Binary |
| 10.178 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire) | Binary |
| 10.178 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| 10.178 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas) | Binary |
| 10.178 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa) | Binary |
| 10.178 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
| 10.178 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia) | Binary |
| 10.178 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado) | Binary |
| 10.178 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide)) | Binary |
| 10.178 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey) | Binary |
| 10.178 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York) | Binary |
| 10.094 | Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023? | Binary |
| 9.876 | What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Max) | Continuous |
| 9.766 | What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 yellow maize - Min) | Continuous |
| 9.730 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 9.730 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 9.730 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
| 9.730 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
| 9.730 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
| 9.730 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 9.730 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 9.730 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
| 9.508 | What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Min) | Continuous |
| 9.368 | What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022? | Continuous |
| 9.321 | How much oil will Russia produce (in barrels per day) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 9.260 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 9.260 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Inflection) | Binary |
| 9.260 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Meta) | Binary |
| 9.188 | What will be the UK natural gas futures price (GBp/thm) for May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 9.152 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 9.116 | How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2022? | Continuous |
| 9.037 | What will be the US Consumer Sentiment for May 2024? | Continuous |
| 8.840 | What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022? | Continuous |
| 8.682 | What will Great Britain's maximum solar power capacity (MW) be for October 2024? | Continuous |
| 8.659 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan? | Binary |
| 8.607 | What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US, in billions USD, in 2022? | Continuous |
| 8.582 | What will be the US Federal Funds Rate on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 8.444 | What will be the share of people living in countries where same-sex marriage is legal in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 8.229 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 8.229 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 8.229 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 8.222 | What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 8.190 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 8.046 | What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 yellow maize - Max) | Continuous |
| 8.018 | Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 7.966 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 7.946 | What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (Thai AI super rice - Max) | Continuous |
| 7.932 | What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Jun-24) | Continuous |
| 7.924 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Sevilla) | Binary |
| 7.924 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lens) | Binary |
| 7.806 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 7.635 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 7.635 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 7.635 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 7.552 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 7.543 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 7.493 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
| 7.462 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Crvena Zvezda) | Binary |
| 7.462 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Feyenoord) | Binary |
| 7.462 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Celtic) | Binary |
| 7.441 | What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 7.396 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever) | Binary |
| 7.396 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt) | Binary |
| 7.396 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella) | Binary |
| 7.396 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy) | Binary |
| 7.374 | What will be the percent SOL assessment pass rate in math for Virginian third graders in the 2021-2022? | Continuous |
| 7.370 | What will be the UK's annual inflation rate in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 7.316 | When will Virginia's statewide mask mandate for K-12 schools be rescinded? | Continuous |
| 7.069 | BTC Worth Over 100k USD by 2025? (Yes) → Federal Funds Target Range Upper Limit (December 31, 2024) | Continuous |
| 6.846 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 6.664 | What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016? | Continuous |
| 6.521 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 6.463 | What will be the lowest US unemployment rate in 2022? | Continuous |
| 6.436 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Apr-24) | Continuous |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace) | Binary |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst) | Binary |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds) | Binary |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds) | Binary |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake) | Binary |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 6.403 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 6.394 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 6.394 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 6.394 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
| 6.394 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt) | Binary |
| 6.394 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio) | Binary |
| 6.394 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik) | Binary |
| 6.394 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson) | Binary |
| 6.379 | Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 6.316 | What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Sep-24) | Continuous |
| 6.228 | Will Sadiq Khan win re-election in the 2024 London Mayoral Elections? | Binary |
| 6.186 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (United States) | Binary |
| 6.118 | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
| 6.089 | What percentage of US children under 5-years-old will have at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 6.041 | How many new building permits will be authorized in the SF metro area in 2022? | Continuous |
| 5.929 | Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont? | Binary |
| 5.922 | How many positive influenza specimens will be detected by the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System in the peak week for the Northern Hemisphere over the 2021-2022 flu season? | Continuous |
| 5.760 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Brazil) | Binary |
| 5.728 | When will 50,000 Chevy Bolt EV and Chevy Bolt EUV vehicles have completed repairs for the recall relating to risk of battery fire? | Continuous |
| 5.677 | What will be the total global production of biofuels (measured in thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day) in 2022? | Continuous |
| 5.657 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 5.588 | Will Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024? | Binary |
| 5.576 | Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022? | Binary |
| 5.575 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 5.575 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 5.575 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 5.575 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 5.575 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 5.575 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 5.575 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 5.575 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 5.560 | Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election? | Binary |
| 5.553 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023? | Binary |
| 5.345 | In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received? | Binary |
| 5.265 | What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal index for the value in December of the listed year relative to the value in December 2020? (2024) | Continuous |
| 5.244 | Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 5.116 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 5.022 | Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024? | Binary |
| 5.000 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023? | Binary |
| 4.847 | What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI? | Continuous |
| 4.717 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
| 4.675 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati) | Binary |
| 4.610 | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 4.606 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Vietnam) | Binary |
| 4.590 | Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024? | Binary |
| 4.544 | Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? | Binary |
| 4.542 | Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022? | Binary |
| 4.529 | Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates? | Binary |
| 4.419 | How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022? | Continuous |
| 4.390 | Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024? | Binary |
| 4.370 | Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 4.358 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (China) | Binary |
| 4.222 | What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating? | Continuous |
| 4.103 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Thailand) | Binary |
| 4.097 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman) | Binary |
| 3.852 | Before 2025, will the US FDA authorize use of an at-home over-the-counter rapid test for influenza? | Binary |
| 3.814 | What will the total amount of worldwide venture capital funding in quantum computing be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 3.630 | Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023? | Binary |
| 3.628 | Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 3.556 | Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023? | Binary |
| 3.515 | By 2023, what fraction of total content published on the Effective Altruism Wiki will have been written by volunteer contributors? | Continuous |
| 3.385 | What will China’s GDP be in 2023? | Continuous |
| 3.367 | Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023? | Binary |
| 3.350 | How many cultivated meat ventures there will be in 2022 according to the GFI State of Industry report for that year? | Continuous |
| 3.336 | Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 3.314 | Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31? | Binary |
| 3.291 | Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023? | Binary |
| 3.269 | What will Lebanon's Fragile States Index score be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 3.268 | Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2023? | Binary |
| 3.062 | Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)? | Binary |
| 3.027 | By 2023, what fraction of total traffic to the Effective Altruism Forum will be traffic to the Effective Altruism Wiki? | Continuous |
| 2.989 | What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Apr-24) | Continuous |
| 2.985 | How many migrants will die in 2022 trying to cross the Mediterranean? | Continuous |
| 2.722 | Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023? | Binary |
| 2.706 | What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive? | Continuous |
| 2.586 | How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Apple Inc. affiliation? | Continuous |
| 2.582 | Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 2.502 | How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023? | Continuous |
| 2.481 | What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be? | Continuous |
| 2.450 | Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024? | Binary |
| 2.421 | Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 2.382 | How much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021? | Continuous |
| 2.373 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 2.338 | What will the number of active volcanos be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 2.305 | Will the ANC receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election? | Binary |
| 2.283 | By 2023, how many words of content will have been published on the Effective Altruism Wiki? | Continuous |
| 2.153 | What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Oct-24) | Continuous |
| 2.128 | Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks? | Binary |
| 2.120 | What percentage of black voters will vote for a Republican president in the 2024 US presidential election? | Continuous |
| 2.085 | What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (May-24) | Continuous |
| 2.079 | In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state? | Binary |
| 2.077 | Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 2.067 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 2.031 | How many Flex Alerts will be issued in California in 2024? | Continuous |
| 2.008 | By 2023, what will be the quality of the best articles published on the Effective Altruism Wiki? | Continuous |
| 1.921 | Will the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act (DCCPA) be passed before 2025? | Binary |
| 1.848 | What will be the average unemployment in the US from January 2022 to December 2024? | Continuous |
| 1.814 | Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025? | Binary |
| 1.742 | Will Johnathan Davis be re-elected at the 2024 ACT election? | Binary |
| 1.672 | In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results? | Binary |
| 1.640 | Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025? | Binary |
| 1.614 | Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 1.602 | Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 1.533 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Minnesota Lynx) | Binary |
| 1.519 | When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.? | Continuous |
| 1.514 | How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue? | Continuous |
| 1.478 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? | Binary |
| 1.423 | What will the total worldwide box office gross be for Avatar 2? | Continuous |
| 1.420 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina) | Binary |
| 1.300 | Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections? | Binary |
| 1.283 | Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 1.119 | Will the German value-added tax (VAT) of plant-based milks be reduced to be the same as cow's milk by end of 2024? | Binary |
| 1.118 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 1.118 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (2) | Binary |
| 1.118 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (6) | Binary |
| 1.118 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (3) | Binary |
| 1.118 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (4) | Binary |
| 1.118 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (5) | Binary |
| 1.098 | Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
| 1.087 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (1) | Binary |
| 1.045 | Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025? | Binary |
| 1.027 | Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly? | Binary |
| 1.019 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas) | Binary |
| 1.019 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power) | Binary |
| 1.019 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government) | Binary |
| 1.019 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah) | Binary |
| 1.012 | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
| 1.005 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Illinois for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 0.991 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel) | Binary |
| 0.987 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested) | Binary |
| 0.970 | Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.922 | Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.922 | Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024? | Binary |
| 0.914 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 0.914 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 0.914 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 0.914 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 0.914 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 0.914 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 0.914 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 0.914 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 0.912 | Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 0.912 | Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 0.912 | Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 0.910 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 0.910 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 0.900 | What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD? | Continuous |
| 0.900 | Will Gary Gensler be subpoenaed by Congress before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.889 | How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 0.849 | Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 0.835 | Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election? | Binary |
| 0.832 | Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.814 | Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.804 | Will a lead-apatite class superconductor with a warm Tc be found before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.804 | Will a new highly-diamagnetic room-temperature material be found before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.791 | Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.785 | Room-temp Superconductor Replicated by 2025 (No) → Commercial Room-Temp Superconductor by 2025? | Binary |
| 0.784 | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 0.782 | Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.754 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Russia) | Binary |
| 0.743 | Will Libya hold a presidential election before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.742 | Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? | Binary |
| 0.736 | Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.732 | Will Tether collapse before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.717 | Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.717 | Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.717 | Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.717 | Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.717 | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.682 | How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 0.677 | How many medals will the USA win at Paris 2024? | Continuous |
| 0.675 | In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election? | Binary |
| 0.660 | Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.635 | Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.619 | When will Julian Assange be extradited to the US? | Continuous |
| 0.616 | Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.609 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 0.599 | What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025? | Continuous |
| 0.597 | What will be the Shiller P/E ratio of the S&P 500 on January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
| 0.591 | Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.584 | Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.567 | Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 0.558 | Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.555 | Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform? | Binary |
| 0.533 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024) | Binary |
| 0.524 | Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.503 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3) | Binary |
| 0.503 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2) | Binary |
| 0.503 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1) | Binary |
| 0.492 | When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party? | Continuous |
| 0.492 | Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025? | Binary |
| 0.478 | Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025? | Binary |
| 0.475 | Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.465 | Will an act such as the JCPA significantly strengthen US news companies' bargaining position before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.431 | Will the Pandemic and All Hazards Preparedness Act (PAHPA) be reauthorized for more than 4 years before April 1st, 2024, and December 31st, 2024? (2024 Dec 31) | Binary |
| 0.414 | Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.407 | Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025? | Binary |
| 0.369 | Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.358 | By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis? | Binary |
| 0.351 | Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.348 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Connecticut Sun) | Binary |
| 0.346 | What will be the wheat price on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 0.342 | Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.331 | Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025? | Binary |
| 0.322 | Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.319 | Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.316 | How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2022? | Continuous |
| 0.295 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia) | Binary |
| 0.279 | Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 0.269 | Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.223 | What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Sep-24) | Continuous |
| 0.127 | How many dollars will it cost per month to store 1 TB on Google Cloud Archive in 2025? | Continuous |
| - | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Miami Dolphins) | Binary |
| - | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Baltimore Ravens) | Binary |
| - | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Dallas Cowboys) | Binary |
| - | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Anish Giri) | Binary |
| - | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alireza Firouzja) | Binary |
| -0.000 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (New York Liberty) | Binary |
| -0.126 | By 2023, how fast will the Effective Altruism Wiki have grown relative to the LessWrong Wiki? | Continuous |
| -0.287 | When will the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Interagency Technical Working Group on Race and Ethnicity Standards complete revisions to Statistical Policy Directive No. 15 (SPD 15)? | Continuous |
| -0.555 | What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021? | Continuous |
| -0.785 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona) | Binary |
| -0.801 | Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024? | Binary |
| -0.884 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| -1.041 | Will there be any further delay to the Libor cessation in 2023? | Binary |
| -1.099 | What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
| -1.334 | What will President Joe Biden's net approval rating be on November 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| -1.655 | Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| -1.761 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| -1.761 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| -2.905 | Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024? | Binary |
| -2.935 | What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Nov-24) | Continuous |
| -3.167 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
| -3.355 | How much will a pound of fresh beef cost in cents in January 2023? | Continuous |
| -3.626 | Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Binary |
| -3.702 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada) | Binary |
| -3.792 | What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2022? | Continuous |
| -4.781 | By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be "alive"? | Binary |
| -5.318 | When will the RSV monoclonal antibody nirsevimab (Beyfortus) no longer be in shortage in the US? | Continuous |
| -6.610 | Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025? | Binary |
| -6.650 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
| -7.638 | What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months? | Continuous |
| -7.944 | How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? | Continuous |
| -8.019 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Pennsylvania for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| -8.745 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -8.972 | UN Troops In Gaza (No) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -9.602 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Texas for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| -9.611 | What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models? | Continuous |
| -9.612 | What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14? | Continuous |
| -9.744 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan) | Binary |
| -10.260 | What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -10.436 | Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023? | Binary |
| -11.097 | When will the Mars helicopter Ingenuity stop making successful flights for 6 months? | Continuous |
| -12.230 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| -13.683 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Missouri for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| -14.156 | What retail market share will plant-based milk make up of the total milk category in the US in 2022? | Continuous |
| -15.440 | Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024? | Binary |
| -16.170 | What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based foods in the U.S. be in 2022? | Continuous |
| -16.214 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
New York for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| -16.814 | How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in cultivated meat companies in 2022? | Continuous |
| -17.792 | What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose as of 4 May 2022? | Continuous |
| -19.048 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data? | Continuous |
| -20.507 | What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Dec-24) | Continuous |
| -21.591 | Will at least 3 months of third party safety evaluations be conducted on Gemini before its deployment? | Binary |
| -21.679 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| -21.739 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Meta) | Binary |
| -21.904 | What will US inflation be in 2022? | Continuous |
| -22.975 | Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics? | Binary |
| -24.259 | How many cases of vaccine-derived poliovirus will there be between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024 in the Democratic Republic of Congo? | Continuous |
| -24.950 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Massachusetts for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| -29.870 | What will be the minimum Antartic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -32.041 | Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (Israel) | Binary |
| -32.063 | Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023? | Binary |
| -34.278 | If Elizabeth Holmes is convicted in Theranos fraud trial, how long will her sentence be? | Continuous |
| -38.237 | [short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022? | Binary |
| -39.623 | What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area? | Continuous |
| -41.008 | What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022? | Continuous |
| -41.197 | What will be the US FY 2024 budget (in $ millions) for the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA)? | Continuous |
| -43.803 | What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022? | Continuous |
| -44.191 | When will the pre-August 2022 peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia occur? | Continuous |
| -49.114 | What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14? | Continuous |
| -49.629 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Google Deep Mind) | Binary |
| -49.765 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Inflection) | Binary |
| -53.673 | Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022? | Binary |
| -55.510 | When will 100M doses of Moderna's Omicron-specific booster candidate or multi-valent booster candidates be distributed? | Continuous |
| -57.715 | What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data? | Continuous |
| -59.155 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Philadelphia Eagles) | Binary |
| -61.370 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Missouri) | Continuous |
| -63.890 | What will be The Economist's estimated global excess deaths due to COVID-19 on January 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| -67.527 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| -68.772 | How much total capital will be invested in plant-based foods companies through exits (IPOs, direct listings, mergers and acquisitions) in 2022? | Continuous |
| -69.876 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Madrid) | Binary |
| -76.559 | What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14? | Continuous |
| -84.842 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Boston Celtics) | Binary |
| -86.121 | What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| -87.948 | What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022? | Continuous |
| -88.124 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (RSV) | Continuous |
| -88.352 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| -90.262 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -90.799 | How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022? | Continuous |
| -91.037 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Green Bay Packers) | Binary |
| -92.133 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | Binary |
| -99.551 | What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022? | Continuous |
| -99.704 | Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022? | Binary |
| -102.145 | What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy? | Continuous |
| -102.882 | Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -105.036 | What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data? | Continuous |
| -106.970 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| -112.086 | How many Chinese institutions of higher education will get approved for an artificial intelligence undergraduate program in 2023? | Continuous |
| -123.435 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Houston Texans) | Binary |
| -124.899 | How many weeks will influenza-like illness (ILI) activity levels be at "high" or above in at least five states during the 2023-2024 season? | Continuous |
| -130.106 | When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022? | Continuous |
| -132.009 | When will total nonfarm employees in Virginia exceed 4 million? | Continuous |
| -132.575 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data? | Continuous |
| -136.423 | When will the percentage of Virginians who have received a booster dose exceed 50%? | Continuous |
| -149.202 | What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022? | Continuous |
| -178.021 | What will be the maximum Antartic sea ice extent in these years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -180.102 | How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| -183.257 | What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 21st of January, 2022? | Continuous |
| -187.013 | Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| -194.859 | Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025? | Binary |
| -205.905 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Gukesh Dommaraju) | Binary |
| -209.343 | What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants? | Continuous |
| -374.676 | Will the right-wing incumbent BJP win the 2024 national election in India? | Binary |