zenblews

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2022

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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3.51k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
97.902	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?	Binary
97.870	Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?	Binary
97.863	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection in 2022?	Binary
97.854	Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?	Binary
97.846	Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
97.824	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?	Binary
97.407	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?	Binary
96.680	Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
96.678	Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
95.929	Before 2023, will Joe Biden announce that he will not run for president in 2024?	Binary
94.708	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2022)	Binary
94.445	Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
94.433	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
94.420	Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
94.266	Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?	Binary
94.248	Will a cyber action or series of cyber actions trigger NATO’s Article 5 in 2022?	Binary
93.598	Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?	Binary
93.537	Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?	Binary
91.858	By December 31, 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?	Binary
91.412	Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?	Binary
87.724	Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?	Binary
85.579	Will Éric Zemmour win the French presidential election in 2022?	Binary
83.431	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?	Binary
83.168	Will Governor Newsom be Reelected Governor of California in 2022?	Binary
82.765	Will EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
81.784	Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut the Kerch Strait Cable before 2023?	Binary
80.827	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023?	Binary
76.789	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?	Binary
76.404	Will Elizabeth Kim win the Democratic primary for New York's 10th congressional district in 2022?	Binary
74.590	Will Beto O'Rourke win the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election?	Binary
72.734	Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
66.295	Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?	Binary
66.241	Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?	Binary
62.018	Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022?	Binary
60.597	Will Ron DeSantis be re-elected as Governor of Florida in 2022?	Binary
59.668	Who will win the 2022 Ottawa mayoral election? (Mike Maguire)	Binary
58.432	Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?	Binary
57.554	Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
57.308	Will the New York Times place Wordle (or any currently existing part of Wordle) behind a paywall during 2022?	Binary
57.038	Will Xi Jinping be re-elected paramount leader in 2022?	Binary
56.416	Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
51.510	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?	Binary
49.495	Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?	Binary
48.449	Will Tether collapse before 2023?	Binary
47.898	Will the US Government designate Russia a "State Sponsor of Terrorism" by 2023?	Binary
47.591	Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022?	Binary
47.230	Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
45.962	Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023?	Binary
45.758	By February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope successfully see First Light?	Binary
45.266	Will there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)?	Binary
44.320	Will a Republican be elected governor of Maryland in 2022?	Binary
42.167	Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022?	Binary
39.898	Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?	Binary
38.412	Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
34.845	Will Mehmet Oz win the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania?	Binary
33.260	Will China make a successful, major cyberattack on Taiwanese critical infrastructure before December 31, 2022?	Binary
32.614	Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
31.979	Will J.D. Vance win the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio?	Binary
30.845	Will Facebook decide to make the weights of the 175B parameter model publicly available before 2023?	Binary
30.614	Will Stacey Abrams be elected Governor of Georgia in 2022?	Binary
29.602	Will James Charles have more than 25 million Youtube subscribers by January 1, 2023?	Binary
28.719	Will the weights of the 175B parameter model be made publicly available via a leak or hack by 2023?	Binary
28.592	Will there be an armed conflict in the South China Sea before 2023?	Binary
27.901	Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
27.551	Will PredictIt default on its obligation to allow its users to withdraw funds before 2023?	Binary
25.706	Will Russian or Belarusian troops cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts before 2023?	Binary
25.180	Will Doug Mastriano be elected Governor of Pennsylvania in 2022?	Binary
24.946	Will Liverpool win the 2021-2022 Premier League?	Binary
24.878	Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?	Binary
24.377	Will Princeton cancel in person classes in January 2022?	Binary
22.245	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?	Binary
21.270	Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
20.774	Will any single cyberattack in 2022 result in damages over $10 billion?	Binary
20.569	Will the Senate Commerce committee reach an agreement on preemption for a federal data security and data privacy law in 2022?	Binary
20.347	Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
20.028	Will UK initiate its rota load shedding plan during 2022-2023 winter?	Binary
19.476	Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
19.325	Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
18.940	Will Blake Masters win the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona?	Binary
18.420	Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?	Binary
18.327	Will Carrick Flynn win the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
17.401	Will the British pound trade below $1 before 2023?	Binary
16.583	Will the DART asteroid mission successfully impact in 2022?	Binary
15.865	Will Éric Zemmour be in the 2nd round of the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
15.277	Before 2023, will the US CDC recommend the general use of the monkeypox vaccine for all men who have sex with men in the US?	Binary
15.002	Will Queen Elizabeth II abdicate in 2022?	Binary
14.974	Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 before 2023?	Binary
14.957	Will Raphael Warnock be re-elected in the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia?	Binary
14.889	Will Ron Johnson win the 2022 Wisconsin US Senate election?	Binary
14.773	Will the European Central Bank raise interest rates in 2022?	Binary
13.426	Will Pakistan default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
13.193	Will Rick Caruso be elected Mayor of Los Angeles in 2022?	Binary
12.394	Will a cyberattack directly cause one or more deaths in 2022?	Binary
11.786	Will Niger experience a coup before 2023?	Binary
11.452	Will there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)?	Binary
11.272	Will Ukraine acknowledge having fired the missile that killed two people in Przewodów, Poland, before 2023?	Binary
11.154	Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev exit the Presidency of Kazakhstan in 2022?	Binary
10.782	Will North Korea have internet failures on 4 or more days between March 8, 2022 and August 1, 2022?	Binary
10.666	Will any of the ongoing BioNTech mRNA cancer vaccine trials proceed to Phase III trials in 2022?	Binary
9.322	Will David Segal win the RI-2 Democratic primary?	Binary
8.771	Will more than 20,000 people die within 28 days of a positive Covid test in the UK in 2022?	Binary
7.568	Will Omicron XE be the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the US before June 19, 2022?	Binary
7.526	Will the US claim that a Russian disinformation campaign attempted to influence the 2022 midterm elections?	Binary
7.203	Will the Buffalo Bills play in Super Bowl LVI?	Binary
6.980	Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?	Binary
6.800	Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
6.603	Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	Binary
6.223	Will Sarah Palin be elected as US Representative for Alaska in 2022?	Binary
6.148	In the next round of FITARA (Federal Information Technology Acquisition Reform Act) scoring, will the median cyber grade for the covered federal departments and agencies come out as a “B-” or higher?	Binary
5.892	[short-fuse] Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
5.689	Will Gotabaya Rajapaksa no longer be the President of Sri Lanka before 2023?	Binary
4.916	If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023?	Binary
4.639	Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022?	Binary
4.613	Will the US executive branch attempt to ban or otherwise further limit ransomware payments in 2022?	Binary
4.350	Will Brandy Bottone, the pregnant woman pulled over in Texas for an HOV lane violation, be found guilty in court?	Binary
4.276	Will an Eliciting Latent Knowledge prize of $50,000 be awarded?	Binary
3.589	Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan in 2022?	Binary
2.331	Will a popular online identity verification service be breached in 2022?	Binary
2.097	Will the Israeli Labor Party run alone?	Binary
0.959	Will at least four REvil gang members be in prison on May 15, 2022?	Binary
0.842	Will the US sanction Russian oil or gas before 2023?	Binary
0.753	By December 31, 2022, will the US federal government announce an extension of the pause on federal student loan repayments?	Binary
0.709	Will the U.S. Congress pass legislation authorizing at least $50 billion to the semiconductor industry before May 1, 2022?	Binary
0.648	Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?	Binary
0.576	Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?	Binary
0.531	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Laura Loomer)	Binary
0.515	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before July 22, 2022?	Binary
0.405	Will there be a bilateral ceasefire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2023?	Binary
0.359	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Philadelphia Phillies)	Binary
0.344	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Donald Trump)	Binary
0.163	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Houston Astros)	Binary
0.027	Will there be a successful cyberattack on the 2022 FIFA World Cup?	Binary
0.022	Will any Fields Medal winner boycott ICM 2022 for political reasons?	Binary
-	Will the Kenyan Supreme court nullify the results of the 2022 Presidential Election?	Binary
-	Who will win the 2022 Ottawa mayoral election? (Catherine McKenney)	Binary
-0.036	Will Catherine Cortez Masto be re-elected in the 2022 US Senate election in Nevada?	Binary
-0.141	Will Rafael Nadal make it to the semifinals of every Grand Slam in 2022?	Binary
-0.234	By December 31, 2022, will Twitter agree to be taken private by Elon Musk?	Binary
-0.664	Will the ceasefire in Yemen hold for its intended duration?	Binary
-1.746	Will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) exceed 60 on any single day in 2022?	Binary
-3.316	Will Solana be in the top-10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on December 31, 2022?	Binary
-5.835	Will the study “Knowledge about others reduces one’s own sense of anonymity” (Nature, 2022) replicate?	Binary
-6.016	Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?	Binary
-6.846	Before 2022-04-01, will martial law be on in any five federal subjects of Russia excluding all the territories annexed after 2013?	Binary
-7.840	Will a cyberattack using the Log4J exploit cause $20 million in damage to a single target before September 1, 2022?	Binary
-7.902	Will there be a female Fields Medalist in 2022?	Binary
-10.152	Will Seattle's Approval Voting ballot initiative (Initiative 134) pass?	Binary
-13.050	Will a DDoS attack of greater than 3.5TPS occur in 2022?	Binary
-14.438	[short fuse] Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in 2022?	Binary
-15.427	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?	Binary
-29.070	Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?	Binary
-32.599	Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022?	Binary
-33.800	Will 2022 venture capital investment in cybersecurity companies surpass 2021?	Binary
-47.987	Will the UK authorise fourth doses of Covid vaccines for healthy adults in 2022?	Binary
-57.945	Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-72.488	Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022?	Binary
-199.307	Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-420.068	Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-545.139	Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022?	Binary