zenblews

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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6.28k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
98.299	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
98.131	Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?	Binary
97.439	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
96.779	Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?	Binary
96.729	Will France send their military to intervene in the Gabonese coup in 2023?	Binary
96.683	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
95.840	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?	Binary
95.693	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
95.258	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
94.950	Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
93.612	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
90.462	Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?	Binary
89.971	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
88.133	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
86.353	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
85.315	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
84.452	Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023?	Binary
83.806	Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?	Binary
79.310	Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?	Binary
77.948	Will there no longer be any authorized COVID therapeutic in the U.S. in 2023?	Binary
76.532	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
75.897	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
74.192	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
73.859	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
73.253	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
72.999	Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?	Binary
72.911	Will a country other than the United States shoot down a high-altitude object before the end of February, 2023?	Binary
72.886	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
70.529	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
70.286	Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
68.934	Will NASA re-establish communications with Voyager 1 before 1 Jan 2024?	Binary
67.983	Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?	Binary
67.438	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
66.853	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Rabiu Kwankwaso)	Binary
65.743	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
64.260	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)	Binary
64.259	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa)	Binary
64.259	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba)	Binary
60.889	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
59.049	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
58.511	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
57.498	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
56.465	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
55.208	Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?	Binary
53.016	Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?	Binary
51.660	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
51.373	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
51.059	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
50.983	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
47.472	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
47.062	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
45.482	Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?	Binary
45.172	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
43.881	Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?	Binary
42.827	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
41.641	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
41.640	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
41.640	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
41.640	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
41.640	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
41.640	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
41.639	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
41.639	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
41.639	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
41.639	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Nancy Mace (R))	Binary
41.450	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
41.442	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
41.252	Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class?	Binary
38.652	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
36.984	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
36.942	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
35.354	Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?	Binary
34.700	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (All Other Teams Not Listed)	Binary
34.527	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
34.200	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
32.898	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?	Binary
31.784	Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?	Binary
31.003	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
30.844	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
30.553	Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?	Binary
30.213	Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22?	Binary
30.146	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
30.061	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
29.300	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (England)	Binary
29.231	Will "All Quiet on the Western Front" win Best Picture - Non-English Language at the 2023 Golden Globe Awards?	Binary
29.186	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
29.096	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
28.946	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
28.548	Russian Coup or Regime Change before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
28.394	Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?	Binary
28.266	Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?	Binary
27.999	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
27.425	Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2024)	Binary
27.291	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Emmer (R))	Binary
26.035	Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season?	Binary
25.410	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Cole (R))	Binary
25.312	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
25.050	[Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023?	Binary
25.049	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
24.996	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
23.165	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
23.147	Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?	Binary
23.146	Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023?	Binary
23.033	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
22.989	Will year-on-year core inflation in the United States exceed 6% for the year ending in December 2022?	Binary
22.852	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Atiku Abubakar)	Binary
22.768	Will the ban on imports of Apple watches with blood oxygen sensors take effect before December 27, 2023?	Binary
22.508	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
22.312	Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?	Binary
20.904	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Austin Scott (R))	Binary
20.676	Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?	Binary
19.566	Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?	Binary
19.361	Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
19.296	In 2023, will a non-European team win the FIFA Club World Cup for the first time since 2012?	Binary
18.317	Will there be more Antarctic sea ice on March 7, 2023 than there was on March 7, 2022?	Binary
18.301	Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?	Binary
17.809	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (New York Knicks)	Binary
17.304	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
16.263	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Lakers)	Binary
16.261	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Brian Fitzpatrick (R))	Binary
16.260	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Lee Zeldin (R))	Binary
16.191	Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?	Binary
16.067	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
15.937	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (New Left)	Binary
15.937	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Polish Coalition)	Binary
15.937	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Confederation)	Binary
15.937	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Poland 2050)	Binary
15.936	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Agreement)	Binary
15.936	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Kukiz'15)	Binary
15.936	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Democratic Left)	Binary
14.871	Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting?	Binary
14.696	Will the EU Parliament endorse a negotiating mandate for the AI Act before June 16, 2023?	Binary
13.646	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
13.646	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
13.646	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
13.646	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
13.645	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
13.645	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
13.645	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
13.645	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
13.645	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
13.645	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
13.310	Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?	Binary
12.367	Will a mandatory evacuation order be issued for any area of Virginia related to any tropical cyclone in 2023?	Binary
12.140	Will copper prices reach an all-time-high in 2023?	Binary
11.879	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Florida Panthers)	Binary
10.813	Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?	Binary
10.808	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Ash Regan)	Binary
10.648	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Dallas Stars)	Binary
10.573	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Boston Celtics)	Binary
9.816	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Germany)	Binary
9.227	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
8.885	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Philadelphia 76ers)	Binary
8.802	Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023?	Binary
8.675	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
8.329	Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?	Binary
8.311	Will there be more than 10 ministerial resignations in Rishi Sunak’s government before 2024?	Binary
8.310	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Golden State Warriors)	Binary
7.715	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (United States)	Binary
7.665	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Philadelphia Phillies)	Binary
7.648	Will the Palme d'Or, the top prize at the 2023 Cannes Film Festival, be awarded to a film from a European country?	Binary
7.593	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?	Binary
7.574	Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?	Binary
7.436	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
7.386	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
7.334	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Phoenix Suns)	Binary
6.364	Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?	Binary
6.338	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
6.227	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
6.121	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Law and Justice (PiS))	Binary
5.928	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023)	Binary
5.829	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?	Binary
5.759	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Civic Platform)	Binary
5.719	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
5.624	Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?	Binary
5.573	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Houston Astros)	Binary
5.499	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
5.457	Will Virgin Orbit file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
4.911	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)	Binary
4.899	Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
4.602	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Carolina Hurricanes)	Binary
4.490	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?	Binary
3.931	Will ChatGPT have multiple tiers of capability before 2024?	Binary
3.886	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Holly Mitchell (D))	Binary
3.885	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Barbara Lee (D))	Binary
3.877	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Adam Schiff (D))	Binary
3.877	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Katie Porter (D))	Binary
3.876	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Former Senator Barbara Boxer (D))	Binary
3.874	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Hunter Biden (D))	Binary
3.710	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
3.543	Will the Conservatives hold on to their seat in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election?	Binary
3.280	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sundar Pichai)	Binary
3.280	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Dario Amodei)	Binary
3.279	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Demis Hassabis)	Binary
3.279	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Mark Zuckerberg)	Binary
3.279	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sam Altman)	Binary
3.250	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Sergio Massa)	Binary
3.177	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
3.086	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
2.962	Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case?	Binary
2.920	Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?	Binary
2.875	Will the Nigerian Presidential Election on February 25th go to a run-off vote?	Binary
2.781	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Kate Forbes)	Binary
2.778	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
2.585	Will top institutions participating in the UK’s global AI Safety Summit make concrete and meaningful commitments to advance AI safety?	Binary
2.430	Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
2.127	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
2.094	Will Santiago Peña win the Paraguayan presidential election on April 30th?	Binary
2.050	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
1.986	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (All other teams)	Binary
1.972	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
1.601	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Sacramento Kings)	Binary
1.511	Will USDC restore its peg before May 1, 2023?	Binary
1.224	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Mayor Karen Bass (D))	Binary
1.221	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Maxine Waters (D))	Binary
1.143	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Edmonton Oilers)	Binary
1.123	Will the maiden flight of the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 launch successfully and on time?	Binary
1.118	Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023?	Binary
0.432	Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)?	Binary
0.119	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Toronto Maple Leafs)	Binary
-	Will the Arctic sea ice extent be lower on each day of 2023 compared to that of 2012?	Binary
-0.019	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-0.534	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
-0.704	Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?	Binary
-1.599	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
-1.804	Will Representative George Santos be expelled from the US. House of Representatives before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-2.356	Will voting in Twitter polls require verification on April 16, 2023?	Binary
-2.811	Will large language models become the state of the art for machine translation in 2023?	Binary
-3.183	Will Sweden's Loreen win the Eurovision Song Contest 2023?	Binary
-3.794	Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship?	Binary
-4.500	Will the US Supreme Court declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional?	Binary
-4.595	Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-4.635	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
-5.827	Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?	Binary
-6.364	Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?	Binary
-7.964	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Vegas Golden Knights)	Binary
-8.200	Will the US Congress approve additional aid for Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
-10.880	Will the author who wins the 2023 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction be a first-time finalist?	Binary
-11.664	Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?	Binary
-12.844	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Denver Nuggets)	Binary
-13.148	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
-14.787	Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?	Binary
-17.351	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-19.452	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-25.664	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Texas Rangers)	Binary
-28.441	Will US sovereign debt be downgraded in 2023?	Binary
-32.575	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Spain)	Binary
-93.120	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Mike Johnson (R))	Binary

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Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

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