zenblews

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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3.755k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
98.407	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
98.346	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
98.292	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
98.283	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
98.263	Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024?	Binary
98.246	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
98.102	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
97.912	Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?	Binary
97.842	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
97.575	Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024?	Binary
95.739	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination?	Binary
95.678	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
92.248	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
91.550	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
87.676	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
84.058	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
82.775	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
81.982	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
81.692	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
80.103	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
79.431	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
77.675	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
72.672	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
71.310	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
69.323	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
67.121	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
66.289	Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024?	Binary
65.353	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
64.760	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
64.736	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
56.400	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
52.664	Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
52.185	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
50.512	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
50.338	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
49.077	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
48.994	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
48.398	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
48.248	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
45.081	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
44.153	Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?	Binary
41.978	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
40.083	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
39.843	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
39.386	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023?	Binary
38.844	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
36.101	Will the US “Rewards for Justice” program pay the $10M reward offered for information on the interference in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
36.045	Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?	Binary
35.083	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
35.029	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Nuclear Energy)	Binary
33.514	Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024?	Binary
33.330	Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024?	Binary
31.703	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
30.215	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
29.421	Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta?	Binary
29.056	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Meatpacking)	Binary
28.731	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
28.667	Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2)	Binary
28.204	Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024?	Binary
27.809	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?	Binary
26.691	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
26.625	Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024?	Binary
26.149	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2023)	Binary
25.927	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
25.067	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
25.014	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
24.465	Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023?	Binary
23.840	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
23.414	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Water Treatment)	Binary
22.869	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
22.026	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?	Binary
21.642	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
21.140	Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
20.802	Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?	Binary
20.568	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
20.421	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
20.381	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
18.883	Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024?	Binary
18.862	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
18.093	Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023?	Binary
17.378	Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023?	Binary
16.066	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to adenovirus infection?	Binary
16.016	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
14.762	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
14.703	Will it become public that the FBI sought a warrant to launch an operation to disrupt web shells on private computers in 2022?	Binary
14.693	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
14.471	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
14.351	Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024?	Binary
13.463	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
13.343	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Aviation)	Binary
12.841	Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
12.652	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
10.659	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
10.029	Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning?	Binary
8.872	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
8.262	Will there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022?	Binary
7.801	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
7.536	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United)	Binary
7.466	Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024?	Binary
7.390	Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023?	Binary
7.264	Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023?	Binary
7.161	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
7.020	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United)	Binary
6.711	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
6.695	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Gas/Oil Pipeline)	Binary
6.535	Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
4.977	If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass?	Binary
4.951	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
4.685	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton & Hove Albion)	Binary
4.446	Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?	Binary
4.369	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023)	Binary
4.313	Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
4.009	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
3.804	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
3.630	Will the Peoples Democratic Party win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential election?	Binary
3.326	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City)	Binary
3.235	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
3.227	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur)	Binary
1.502	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal)	Binary
0.674	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
0.363	Will Tsinghua University bar some students from returning to the dorms for the 2023 Spring Semester?	Binary
0.117	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
0.025	Will the city of Redondo Beach, CA pass a ballot initiative to adopt STAR voting in March 2023?	Binary
-	Will Philip Davis cease to be Prime Minister of the Bahamas before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.128	Will OPEC raise its forecast for 2023 global oil demand in its January 2023 report?	Binary
-1.304	Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-2.853	Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?	Binary
-3.274	Will Andrej Babiš win the next Czech Republic presidental election?	Binary
-4.074	Will Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously?	Binary
-5.233	In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?	Binary
-6.075	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
-6.268	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
-8.374	Will the Supreme Court overturn California's Proposition 12 in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross before 2024?	Binary
-8.486	Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023?	Binary
-10.383	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
-15.936	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
-21.887	Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024?	Binary
-22.618	Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?	Binary
-24.715	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-25.859	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
-36.452	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
-62.059	Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?	Binary
-79.414	Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?	Binary
-192.908	Will Saudi Arabia and Iran restore diplomatic relations by 2024?	Binary
-238.210	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary