| 98.466 | Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024? | Binary |
| 98.420 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | Binary |
| 98.407 | Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025? | Binary |
| 98.403 | Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? | Binary |
| 98.218 | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 98.088 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 97.802 | Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025? | Binary |
| 97.743 | Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 97.298 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 97.298 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 96.995 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
| 96.952 | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 96.774 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas) | Binary |
| 96.757 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 96.698 | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
| 96.619 | Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023? | Binary |
| 96.194 | Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025? | Binary |
| 94.370 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
| 94.346 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
| 93.964 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Bonnie Watson Coleman (D)) | Binary |
| 93.964 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Donald Norcross (D)) | Binary |
| 93.964 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Frank Pallone (D)) | Binary |
| 93.964 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Josh Gottheimer (D)) | Binary |
| 93.964 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (NJ First Lady Tammy Murphy (D)) | Binary |
| 93.964 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Vacant) | Binary |
| 93.964 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Lt. Governor Tahesha Way (D)) | Binary |
| 93.963 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (State Senate Majority Leader Teresa Ruiz (D)) | Binary |
| 93.867 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
| 93.866 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst) | Binary |
| 93.866 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
| 93.866 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 93.866 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds) | Binary |
| 93.866 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds) | Binary |
| 93.866 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace) | Binary |
| 93.866 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 93.866 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 93.866 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
| 93.866 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
| 93.866 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 93.866 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
| 93.866 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 93.866 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 93.866 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
| 93.663 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 93.085 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 92.838 | Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 92.815 | Trump Removed or Blocked From Primary Ballot? (No) → 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 92.388 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Etienne Bacrot) | Binary |
| 92.388 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Yuriy Kuzubov) | Binary |
| 92.388 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hans Niemann) | Binary |
| 92.388 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexander Grischuk) | Binary |
| 92.388 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vishwanathan Anand) | Binary |
| 92.251 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 92.251 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 91.200 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Ian Nepomniachtchi) | Binary |
| 91.200 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Fabiano Caruana) | Binary |
| 91.200 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu) | Binary |
| 91.200 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hikaru Nakamura) | Binary |
| 91.199 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vidit Gujrathi) | Binary |
| 90.992 | Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 90.396 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 89.865 | Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025? | Binary |
| 89.606 | Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 89.301 | Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 88.968 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 87.637 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 87.207 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 86.481 | Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 85.954 | Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025? | Binary |
| 84.574 | Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 84.548 | Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 84.435 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 84.398 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 84.398 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 82.022 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
| 82.022 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 82.001 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 82.001 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 79.387 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 79.056 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nihal Sarin) | Binary |
| 78.663 | If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day? | Binary |
| 77.911 | Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023? | Binary |
| 77.589 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Levon Aronian) | Binary |
| 77.084 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda) | Binary |
| 77.083 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Maxime Vachier-Lagrave) | Binary |
| 77.083 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Amin Tabatabaei) | Binary |
| 76.571 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vladimir Fedoseev) | Binary |
| 76.571 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexandr Predke) | Binary |
| 76.570 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Sam Sevian) | Binary |
| 76.570 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vincent Keymer) | Binary |
| 76.567 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 76.044 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Richard Rapport) | Binary |
| 75.274 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 74.975 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Andre Esipenko) | Binary |
| 73.967 | Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025? | Binary |
| 73.844 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 73.220 | Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 73.087 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake) | Binary |
| 72.687 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota) | Binary |
| 72.302 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 72.037 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska) | Binary |
| 71.707 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa) | Binary |
| 71.661 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan) | Binary |
| 71.514 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Arjun Erigaisi) | Binary |
| 71.513 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Parham Maghsoodloo) | Binary |
| 71.324 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
| 71.324 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
| 71.324 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
| 71.303 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 70.998 | Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 70.909 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| 70.802 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 70.248 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
| 69.943 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 69.943 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 69.943 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 68.387 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election? | Binary |
| 66.986 | Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 66.620 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 66.620 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 66.620 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 66.620 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 66.620 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 66.620 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 66.620 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 66.579 | Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? | Binary |
| 66.320 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 65.390 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 65.390 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 65.390 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 64.509 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| 64.441 | Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 64.404 | Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 64.402 | Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 64.401 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| 64.398 | Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 64.304 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
| 64.304 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia) | Binary |
| 64.304 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado) | Binary |
| 64.304 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide)) | Binary |
| 64.014 | Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election? | Binary |
| 63.657 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1) | Binary |
| 63.513 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 63.513 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
| 63.214 | Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 62.299 | Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam? | Binary |
| 61.631 | Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU? | Binary |
| 60.589 | Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023? | Binary |
| 60.010 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 59.379 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 59.083 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 58.965 | Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 58.218 | Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023? | Binary |
| 58.126 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 56.064 | Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 55.791 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt) | Binary |
| 55.141 | Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 54.593 | Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024? | Binary |
| 54.298 | Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 53.995 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik) | Binary |
| 52.861 | Will a lead-apatite class superconductor with a warm Tc be found before 2025? | Binary |
| 52.383 | Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 52.084 | Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025? | Binary |
| 51.364 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
| 50.430 | Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025? | Binary |
| 50.226 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 49.380 | Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022? | Binary |
| 48.408 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Dallas Mavericks) | Binary |
| 48.352 | Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? | Binary |
| 48.090 | Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment? | Binary |
| 47.686 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 47.507 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023? | Binary |
| 47.195 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 47.058 | Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023? | Binary |
| 46.999 | By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 46.527 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson) | Binary |
| 46.527 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio) | Binary |
| 46.527 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 46.501 | Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025? | Binary |
| 46.453 | Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta? | Binary |
| 45.839 | Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
| 45.610 | Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 45.410 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire) | Binary |
| 44.455 | Will 2022 be the hottest year on record? | Binary |
| 44.224 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 43.550 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 42.690 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 42.690 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 42.690 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 42.690 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 42.690 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 42.690 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
| 42.690 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
| 42.690 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
| 42.230 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 41.460 | Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022? | Binary |
| 41.419 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 41.273 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Minnesota Timberwolves) | Binary |
| 41.163 | Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025? | Binary |
| 40.740 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 40.740 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 40.740 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 40.146 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
| 40.114 | Will an additional state join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 40.081 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Indiana Pacers) | Binary |
| 40.055 | Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023? | Binary |
| 40.005 | Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31? | Binary |
| 39.900 | Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025? | Binary |
| 39.437 | Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022? | Binary |
| 38.697 | Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025? | Binary |
| 38.075 | Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023? | Binary |
| 37.536 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement? | Binary |
| 36.838 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (New York Knicks) | Binary |
| 36.682 | Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025? | Binary |
| 36.518 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Oklahoma City Thunder) | Binary |
| 36.484 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 36.450 | Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022? | Binary |
| 36.446 | Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025? | Binary |
| 35.426 | Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 35.308 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Cleveland Cavaliers) | Binary |
| 35.058 | Will the "Moon Cube" be shown to be non-natural before 2023? | Binary |
| 34.625 | Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta? | Binary |
| 34.526 | Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022? | Binary |
| 34.234 | Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 33.622 | Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 33.220 | Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 33.170 | Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 32.957 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nijat Abasov) | Binary |
| 32.921 | Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 32.677 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2) | Binary |
| 32.493 | Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022? | Binary |
| 31.258 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Orlando Magic) | Binary |
| 30.608 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Los Angeles Clippers) | Binary |
| 29.828 | Meaningful commitments from UK AI Summit? (No) → ChatGPT available in Europe on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 29.774 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Miami Heat) | Binary |
| 29.454 | Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025? | Binary |
| 29.310 | Will 2022 be warmer than 2021? | Binary |
| 29.001 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (New Orleans Pelicans) | Binary |
| 28.597 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024) | Binary |
| 28.455 | In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state? | Binary |
| 28.230 | Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023? | Binary |
| 27.811 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Egypt-Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 27.728 | In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results? | Binary |
| 27.652 | Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 27.018 | Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023? | Binary |
| 26.274 | Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023? | Binary |
| 26.208 | When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100? | Continuous |
| 26.014 | Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023? | Binary |
| 25.903 | Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022? | Binary |
| 25.689 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 25.557 | Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023? | Binary |
| 25.483 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023? | Binary |
| 25.178 | Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024? | Binary |
| 25.059 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Sacremento Kings) | Binary |
| 25.018 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Chicago Bulls) | Binary |
| 24.273 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Atlanta Hawks) | Binary |
| 23.744 | Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 23.621 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 23.340 | Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023? | Binary |
| 23.278 | Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 23.028 | In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election? | Binary |
| 21.986 | Will Tether collapse before 2025? | Binary |
| 21.892 | Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled? | Binary |
| 21.733 | Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024? | Binary |
| 21.565 | Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 21.544 | Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 21.493 | Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025? | Binary |
| 21.458 | Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections? | Binary |
| 21.296 | Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025? | Binary |
| 21.289 | Will Oil Exports account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024? | Binary |
| 21.263 | Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025? | Binary |
| 20.790 | Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 20.781 | Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023? | Binary |
| 20.762 | Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 20.562 | Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 20.451 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Brooklyn Nets) | Binary |
| 20.451 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Houston Rockets) | Binary |
| 20.071 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Magnus Carlsen) | Binary |
| 19.374 | Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025? | Binary |
| 19.160 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Philadelphia 76ers) | Binary |
| 18.831 | Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025? | Binary |
| 18.684 | Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models? | Binary |
| 18.325 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay-Argentina-Chile-Paraguay) | Binary |
| 18.034 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey) | Binary |
| 18.034 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York) | Binary |
| 18.034 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD)) | Binary |
| 18.034 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 18.027 | Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023? | Binary |
| 17.986 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Los Angeles Lakers) | Binary |
| 17.875 | Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session? | Binary |
| 17.397 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? | Binary |
| 16.922 | Will an act such as the JCPA significantly strengthen US news companies' bargaining position before 2025? | Binary |
| 16.777 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Phoenix Suns) | Binary |
| 16.620 | Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023? | Binary |
| 16.602 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023? | Binary |
| 16.442 | Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session?? | Binary |
| 16.005 | Will the UK and India have signed an FTA before the next UK General Election? | Binary |
| 15.954 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Toronto Raptors) | Binary |
| 15.954 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Utah Jazz) | Binary |
| 15.850 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 15.728 | Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 15.634 | Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 15.410 | Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 15.398 | 5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 15.363 | Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates? | Binary |
| 14.794 | Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2023? | Binary |
| 14.649 | Will the EPA grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025? | Binary |
| 14.370 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Charlotte Hornets) | Binary |
| 14.211 | Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 14.007 | By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis? | Binary |
| 13.849 | By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? | Binary |
| 13.831 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3) | Binary |
| 13.738 | Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025? | Binary |
| 13.595 | Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025? | Binary |
| 13.562 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Memphis Grizzlies) | Binary |
| 13.273 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina) | Binary |
| 13.247 | Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023? | Binary |
| 13.210 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Pittsburgh Steelers) | Binary |
| 13.139 | Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023? | Binary |
| 13.051 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Russia) | Binary |
| 12.995 | Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match? | Binary |
| 12.958 | Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 12.844 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Golden State Warriors) | Binary |
| 12.688 | Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 12.610 | Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022? | Binary |
| 12.529 | Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams? | Binary |
| 11.902 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Portland Trail Blazers) | Binary |
| 11.861 | Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022? | Binary |
| 11.771 | Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022? | Binary |
| 11.760 | Will India conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 Indian general elections? | Binary |
| 11.462 | Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 11.439 | Will Belfast (2021) win the 2022 Best Picture Oscar? | Binary |
| 11.434 | Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA before 2025? | Binary |
| 11.373 | If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 11.340 | Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (BJP) | Binary |
| 11.340 | Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (INC) | Binary |
| 11.035 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 10.969 | Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024? | Binary |
| 10.956 | Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022? | Binary |
| 9.664 | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026? | Binary |
| 9.506 | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2024) | Binary |
| 9.048 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Washington Wizards) | Binary |
| 8.806 | Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023? | Binary |
| 8.752 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Detroit Pistons) | Binary |
| 8.523 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 8.472 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 8.380 | Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023? | Binary |
| 8.314 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Inflection) | Binary |
| 8.273 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (San Antonio Spurs) | Binary |
| 8.255 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella) | Binary |
| 8.254 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt) | Binary |
| 8.224 | Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025? | Binary |
| 8.149 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Ukraine-Morocco) | Binary |
| 8.015 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Mikie Sherrill (D)) | Binary |
| 7.741 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Atlanta Falcons) | Binary |
| 6.903 | Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022? | Binary |
| 5.710 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 5.661 | Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections? | Binary |
| 5.654 | Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 5.513 | Will a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022? | Binary |
| 5.087 | [Short Fuse] Will OSHA's Emergency Temporary Standard vaccine mandate be blocked or struck down by the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
| 4.860 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Futbol Club Barcelona) | Binary |
| 4.860 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Internacional de Fútbol Miami) | Binary |
| 4.860 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Al-Hilal Saudi Football Club) | Binary |
| 4.860 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Atlético Newell's Old Boys) | Binary |
| 4.860 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Manchester City Football Club) | Binary |
| 4.852 | Will Sadiq Khan win re-election in the 2024 London Mayoral Elections? | Binary |
| 4.731 | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 4.421 | Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024? | Binary |
| 4.211 | Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024? | Binary |
| 3.133 | Will Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024? | Binary |
| 3.118 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Chicago Bears) | Binary |
| 2.927 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Las Vegas Raiders) | Binary |
| 2.855 | Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 2.853 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan) | Binary |
| 2.849 | Will a university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again? | Binary |
| 2.842 | Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads? | Binary |
| 2.835 | Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022? | Binary |
| 2.781 | In 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent, will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate? | Binary |
| 2.599 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy) | Binary |
| 2.403 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever) | Binary |
| 2.255 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2025? | Binary |
| 1.513 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate & House) | Binary |
| 1.486 | Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 1.222 | Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020? | Binary |
| 1.169 | Will the Council of the European Union adopt the proposed expansion to climate-focused export credits before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.946 | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026? | Binary |
| 0.677 | Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026? | Binary |
| 0.495 | Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023? | Binary |
| 0.474 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati) | Binary |
| 0.434 | Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 0.360 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output Yes) | Binary |
| 0.323 | Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024? | Binary |
| 0.063 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (United States) | Binary |
| 0.032 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Vietnam) | Binary |
| 0.025 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Thailand) | Binary |
| - | Will a state actor conduct an ASAT test that results in space debris between 2021 - 2023? | Binary |
| - | Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024? | Binary |
| - | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Ukraine) | Binary |
| - | Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan? | Binary |
| -0.185 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output No) | Binary |
| -0.628 | Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election? | Binary |
| -0.906 | Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years? | Binary |
| -0.993 | Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023? | Binary |
| -1.594 | Will Johnathan Davis be re-elected at the 2024 ACT election? | Binary |
| -2.396 | Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (China) | Binary |
| -2.562 | Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections? | Binary |
| -2.883 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Google Deep Mind) | Binary |
| -2.899 | By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| -4.190 | Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025? | Binary |
| -4.949 | Will there be any further delay to the Libor cessation in 2023? | Binary |
| -5.171 | Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics? | Binary |
| -5.425 | Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023? | Binary |
| -5.480 | Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025? | Binary |
| -6.051 | Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022? | Binary |
| -6.087 | Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024? | Binary |
| -6.366 | Will the US require and verify reporting of large AI training runs before 2026? | Binary |
| -7.247 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia) | Binary |
| -7.247 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona) | Binary |
| -7.264 | Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025? | Binary |
| -7.461 | Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025? | Binary |
| -8.370 | Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024? | Binary |
| -8.505 | By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be "alive"? | Binary |
| -9.766 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
| -10.941 | Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023? | Binary |
| -10.946 | Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025? | Binary |
| -10.986 | Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024? | Binary |
| -11.174 | Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
| -11.478 | Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024? | Binary |
| -11.618 | Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| -11.897 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| -12.340 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada) | Binary |
| -14.550 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024? | Binary |
| -15.034 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| -15.377 | Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023? | Binary |
| -17.204 | Will the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war be publicly available by 2023? | Binary |
| -17.583 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Senator Bob Menendez (D)) | Binary |
| -17.664 | Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| -18.416 | Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025? | Binary |
| -18.442 | Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025? | Binary |
| -19.567 | Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform? | Binary |
| -21.094 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Morocco) | Binary |
| -23.243 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
| -24.609 | Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates? | Binary |
| -25.025 | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | Binary |
| -25.441 | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023) | Binary |
| -28.964 | [short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022? | Binary |
| -30.956 | Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025? | Binary |
| -33.644 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House) | Binary |
| -35.896 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output No) | Binary |
| -36.829 | Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025? | Binary |
| -38.475 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan) | Binary |
| -39.859 | Will the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act (DCCPA) be passed before 2025? | Binary |
| -43.960 | Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023? | Binary |
| -47.273 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman) | Binary |
| -55.903 | Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022? | Binary |
| -57.962 | Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023? | Binary |
| -62.073 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| -68.699 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Houston Texans) | Binary |
| -75.673 | Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022? | Binary |
| -82.653 | Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024? | Binary |
| -84.994 | Will the right-wing incumbent BJP win the 2024 national election in India? | Binary |
| -94.865 | Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
| -105.054 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -111.500 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -121.824 | Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024? | Binary |
| -135.608 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| -153.193 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| -277.678 | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
| -296.097 | In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received? | Binary |
| -311.803 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| -337.634 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| -338.179 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| -515.350 | Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly? | Binary |