jowo

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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10.27k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
181.989	What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
174.417	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
161.103	How many additional indictments will have been filed against Donald Trump on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
150.224	How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024?	Continuous
127.383	How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023?	Continuous
123.835	How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?	Continuous
121.168	How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
99.048	Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024?	Binary
98.954	Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?	Binary
98.596	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
98.414	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024?	Binary
98.364	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
98.363	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
98.081	Musk Chairman Of Twitter in 2024? (Yes) → Twitter Public Company in May 2024?	Binary
98.041	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Microsoft)	Binary
98.041	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Sam Altman against OpenAI)	Binary
98.038	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
97.990	Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?	Binary
97.958	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Sam Altman)	Binary
97.408	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
97.309	Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024?	Binary
97.287	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
97.004	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
96.723	Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024?	Binary
96.719	What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?	Continuous
96.707	LLM passes ARA before 2025? (No) → LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI)	Binary
96.676	Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024?	Binary
96.646	Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?	Binary
96.376	India Acts in Pakistan by 2024 Election? (No) → Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025?	Binary
96.004	Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025?	Binary
95.366	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
95.340	Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024?	Binary
94.938	Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?	Binary
94.930	Which Republican candidate will win the most delegates on Super Tuesday?	Multiple Choice
94.451	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
94.220	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
93.690	Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?	Binary
92.892	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
92.788	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?	Binary
92.712	Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025?	Binary
91.815	Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024?	Binary
91.262	Will the German value-added tax (VAT) of plant-based milks be reduced to be the same as cow's milk by end of 2024?	Binary
91.140	Which country will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics?	Multiple Choice
91.130	On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election?	Binary
91.109	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
90.958	Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Binary
90.812	Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024?	Binary
90.715	Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024?	Binary
89.954	Will OpenAI Inc. change its mission statement before the following years? (2025)	Binary
89.689	If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day?	Binary
89.215	By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
89.209	By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
89.186	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
88.562	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI investors against OpenAI board)	Binary
88.284	Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025?	Binary
87.986	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
87.548	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
86.807	Trump Removed or Blocked From Primary Ballot? (No) → 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee? (Donald Trump)	Binary
86.580	Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?	Binary
85.922	Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?	Binary
84.779	Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?	Binary
84.557	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Government antitrust against Microsoft)	Binary
84.460	Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025?	Binary
84.068	Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
83.288	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
80.642	How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023?	Continuous
80.535	Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025?	Binary
80.503	By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
80.105	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan)	Binary
79.913	By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
79.908	By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
79.895	Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024?	Binary
79.424	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
78.868	Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025?	Binary
78.861	By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?	Binary
78.166	Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2025)	Binary
77.666	Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024?	Binary
77.393	Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?	Binary
76.661	Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?	Binary
76.561	Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024?	Binary
74.791	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
74.561	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025)	Binary
72.459	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
71.982	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
70.941	Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024?	Binary
69.902	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023?	Binary
69.015	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
67.392	Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?	Binary
66.146	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
65.940	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
65.381	Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025?	Binary
65.196	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
64.890	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
64.401	Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?	Binary
64.111	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
62.114	Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024?	Binary
61.925	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
61.681	Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?	Binary
59.936	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
59.409	How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023?	Continuous
59.123	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
57.384	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
56.923	What will the UK consumer price inflation rate for April 2024 be?	Continuous
56.758	Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election?	Binary
56.307	Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?	Binary
55.927	Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024?	Binary
53.803	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025)	Binary
53.189	Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)?	Binary
51.617	What will be the total number of air incursions into the ADIZ between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
49.566	When will Julian Assange be extradited to the US?	Continuous
49.562	Meaningful commitments from UK AI Summit? (No) → ChatGPT available in Europe on June 30, 2024?	Binary
47.926	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
47.791	Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?	Binary
46.237	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024?	Binary
45.899	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?	Binary
45.762	Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023?	Binary
45.684	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
44.135	Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?	Binary
43.027	Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024?	Binary
42.252	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
41.375	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
41.123	Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?	Binary
39.998	What will be the US Federal Funds Rate on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
38.887	How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023?	Continuous
38.035	Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?	Binary
37.621	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
36.438	How many OpenAI or Anthropic model versions will be released between December 1, 2023 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
35.556	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (EPP)	Binary
35.556	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (S&D)	Binary
34.257	What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
34.033	Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?	Binary
33.814	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
33.699	Will India conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 Indian general elections?	Binary
33.631	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
33.559	Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025?	Binary
33.404	Will Belfast (2021) win the 2022 Best Picture Oscar?	Binary
31.016	How many level 2 or greater public charging stations will be available for light vehicles in the United States at the beginning of the listed year? (2025)	Continuous
27.350	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
25.508	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
24.567	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D))	Binary
23.478	Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models?	Binary
23.474	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?	Binary
23.383	Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
23.139	Will Spain announce a snap general election before March 2024?	Binary
21.989	What will be the US labor force participation rate for the May 2024?	Continuous
21.940	What will be the US Consumer Sentiment for May 2024?	Continuous
21.434	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
20.681	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?	Binary
20.537	Will a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022?	Binary
20.504	Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023?	Binary
20.396	Will Sweden join NATO before 2025?	Binary
19.886	What will be the total bilateral commitments of Ukraine support (in billions of EUR) on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
19.654	Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? (No) → 2024 US election considered fraudulent?	Binary
19.212	Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?	Binary
18.871	Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?	Binary
18.758	Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?	Binary
18.693	UN Troops In Gaza (No) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Joe Biden)	Binary
18.246	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
17.488	Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (R. Sunak (Tories))	Binary
17.252	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024)	Binary
16.926	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
16.240	Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (K. Starmer (Labour))	Binary
15.862	Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?	Binary
15.841	How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?	Continuous
13.824	What will be the UK natural gas futures price (GBp/thm) for May 31, 2024?	Continuous
13.751	In 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent, will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate?	Binary
13.523	What percentage of the popular vote will the African National Congress get in the 2024 South African general election?	Continuous
13.050	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
12.976	Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?	Binary
6.900	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024?	Binary
4.624	What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants?	Continuous
4.563	When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers?	Continuous
3.985	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
3.899	Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan?	Binary
2.368	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
2.361	Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023?	Binary
1.326	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
0.463	Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026?	Binary
0.350	Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?	Binary
0.231	Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?	Binary
0.141	Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?	Binary
0.115	Will a Navy ship be captured, scuttled, sunk, or critically damaged in the Black Sea before 2025?	Binary
0.034	Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023?	Binary
-0.000	Will the EPA grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025?	Binary
-0.254	What will be the wheat price on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
-1.036	Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026?	Binary
-7.430	When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users?	Continuous
-9.126	Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?	Binary
-11.472	Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025?	Binary
-12.325	Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?	Binary
-16.160	Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-19.653	Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023?	Binary
-19.721	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
-20.182	What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area?	Continuous
-20.211	Will at least 3 months of third party safety evaluations be conducted on Gemini before its deployment?	Binary
-22.654	Will the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war be publicly available by 2023?	Binary
-37.140	Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?	Binary
-60.633	What will US inflation be in 2022?	Continuous
-110.381	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-125.114	By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
-186.809	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
-268.072	Will the right-wing incumbent BJP win the 2024 national election in India?	Binary