TeeJayKay

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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16.87k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
148.641	How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023?	Continuous
140.594	When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases fall below 1015?	Continuous
137.045	When will the CDC eliminate quarantine restrictions for close contacts of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
134.479	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
132.519	What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?	Continuous
129.065	When will VDH’s frequency of COVID-19 case reporting switch to weekly or less?	Continuous
128.207	When will the percentage of Virginians who have received a booster dose exceed 50%?	Continuous
127.779	What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?	Continuous
124.735	When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 hospitalizations fall below 49?	Continuous
116.615	How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
115.010	When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?	Continuous
113.381	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
111.929	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
111.016	What will Virginia's percent unemployment rate be in April 2022?	Continuous
109.610	How many gold medals will the United States win at the 2022 International Math Olympiad?	Continuous
108.404	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
107.690	What will be the British male life expectancy at birth in 2021 according to the UK Office of National Statistics?	Continuous
105.580	How many influenza-associated pediatric deaths will there be in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
104.387	How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?	Continuous
104.127	What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022?	Continuous
102.186	What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
98.780	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
98.509	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
98.495	How many of Virginia's 133 communities will be experiencing moderate or higher levels of community transmission as of 7 March 2022?	Continuous
98.327	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
98.102	When will the Republican presidential nominee next win the state of Massachusetts in a US Presidential Election? (2024)	Binary
97.948	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
97.222	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
97.103	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
96.938	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
96.492	When will total nonfarm employees in Virginia exceed 4 million?	Continuous
95.915	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
94.664	When will 100M doses of Moderna's Omicron-specific booster candidate or multi-valent booster candidates be distributed?	Continuous
94.558	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
94.140	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
94.101	When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?	Continuous
93.829	How much oil will Russia produce (in barrels per day) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
92.355	Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?	Binary
92.060	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1)	Binary
91.425	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
91.261	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie)	Binary
91.261	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney)	Binary
91.225	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott)	Binary
90.795	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
90.503	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson)	Binary
90.112	What will be the number of conflicts with critical impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
89.737	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
89.624	When will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
88.337	Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
87.873	Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?	Binary
87.832	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
87.231	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
87.154	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
86.949	What percentage of black voters will vote for a Republican president in the 2024 US presidential election?	Continuous
86.627	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022?	Continuous
86.220	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson)	Binary
86.193	What will the total amount of worldwide venture capital funding in quantum computing be in 2022?	Continuous
85.606	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
85.521	When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?	Continuous
85.331	Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?	Binary
84.768	Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?	Binary
84.721	Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025?	Binary
84.511	Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?	Binary
83.833	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
83.723	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
83.633	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
82.816	When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?	Continuous
82.755	Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?	Binary
82.701	Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
82.035	Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?	Binary
81.543	What place will the United States get at the 2022 International Mathematical Olympiad?	Continuous
81.086	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID cases in the US between January 1, 2022 to April 1, 2022?	Continuous
80.809	Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025?	Binary
79.562	Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?	Binary
79.522	Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?	Binary
79.459	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
78.870	Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?	Binary
78.124	What will Rivian's market cap be at the close of trading on 20 April 2022?	Continuous
77.707	Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?	Binary
77.269	Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?	Binary
76.737	Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?	Binary
75.575	Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person before 2023?	Binary
75.418	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
74.942	How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
74.621	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2)	Binary
74.446	Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?	Binary
73.024	What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023)	Continuous
72.786	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
71.976	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
71.756	Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023?	Binary
71.740	Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?	Binary
71.352	Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?	Binary
71.141	Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025?	Binary
70.898	Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023?	Binary
70.498	Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025?	Binary
70.378	How many weeks will Virginia experience “widespread” influenza activity during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
69.911	What will be the ratio of 2022 to 2021 average global interest in vertical farming?	Continuous
69.587	When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA?	Continuous
69.257	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
69.241	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
69.190	Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?	Binary
69.140	How much will a pound of fresh beef cost in cents in January 2023?	Continuous
68.367	When will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
68.260	Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023?	Binary
67.848	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
67.736	Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?	Binary
67.663	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Vietnam)	Binary
67.531	Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?	Binary
67.417	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Thailand)	Binary
67.375	How many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023?	Continuous
67.271	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024)	Binary
66.448	By 2023, what fraction of total traffic to the Effective Altruism Forum will be traffic to the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
65.657	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
65.598	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
65.371	What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
65.233	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
65.233	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
64.978	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
64.791	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)	Binary
64.619	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
64.541	How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?	Continuous
64.181	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams)	Binary
64.164	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
64.078	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
63.882	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren)	Binary
63.455	What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022?	Continuous
63.414	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
63.237	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
62.826	Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?	Binary
62.731	When will Australia reach its 80% (of 16+ population) Covid-19 vaccination target?	Continuous
62.679	Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?	Binary
62.342	How much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021?	Continuous
62.171	What will be the average unemployment in the US from January 2022 to December 2024?	Continuous
62.148	Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?	Binary
61.835	How many deaths from terrorism in 2020?	Continuous
61.725	Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?	Binary
61.663	What will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
61.432	When will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before? (Continued)	Continuous
61.250	What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?	Continuous
61.213	How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023?	Continuous
60.739	What will be the number of conflicts with significant impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
60.682	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
60.445	Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session??	Binary
60.333	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
59.706	Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?	Binary
59.682	When will the next German government be formed?	Continuous
59.589	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
59.388	Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?	Binary
58.422	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
58.319	In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state?	Binary
58.240	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
58.167	What will the total worldwide box office gross be for Avatar 2?	Continuous
58.163	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
57.754	When will Virginia's statewide mask mandate for K-12 schools be rescinded?	Continuous
57.127	By 2023, what will be the quality of the best articles published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
57.125	Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?	Binary
56.476	Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled?	Binary
56.107	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?	Binary
55.941	Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?	Binary
55.804	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
55.278	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID deaths in the US before 2022 April 1?	Continuous
54.641	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
54.611	When will Tigrayan forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa?	Continuous
54.595	How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?	Continuous
54.268	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
54.158	What will be the lowest US unemployment rate in 2022?	Continuous
54.015	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
53.968	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023?	Binary
53.884	Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Binary
53.787	What will the Men's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
53.747	When will the UK hold its next general election?	Continuous
53.655	How many eviction cases will be filed in Virginia in Q4 2021?	Continuous
53.499	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?	Continuous
53.427	What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose as of 4 May 2022?	Continuous
53.013	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
52.390	Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?	Binary
51.374	How many emergency department overdose visits will there be in Q1 2022 in Virginia?	Continuous
51.359	When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.?	Continuous
51.270	How many new building permits will be authorized in the SF metro area in 2022?	Continuous
51.088	By 2023, how many words of content will have been published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
50.829	Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?	Binary
50.546	What will the estimated number of people (in millions) in severe food insecurity be in 2022, according to the 2023 FAO “State of food security and nutrition in the world” annual report?	Continuous
50.401	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
50.323	Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?	Binary
48.403	Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025?	Binary
48.387	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Brazil)	Binary
48.272	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott)	Binary
48.272	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
48.272	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein)	Binary
48.272	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West)	Binary
48.272	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver)	Binary
47.749	What will be the percent SOL assessment pass rate in math for Virginian third graders in the 2021-2022?	Continuous
47.458	How many State of AI Report 2021 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2022 report?	Continuous
46.925	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
46.820	Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?	Binary
46.693	Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?	Binary
46.663	Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?	Binary
46.641	What will the price of oil be for December 2022?	Continuous
46.485	Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023?	Binary
46.348	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
46.345	What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review?	Continuous
46.286	When will US office workplace occupancy reach >50% of pre-pandemic levels?	Continuous
46.222	What will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022?	Continuous
46.109	In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?	Binary
45.895	Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)?	Binary
45.779	Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023?	Binary
45.695	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2022?	Continuous
45.559	Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?	Binary
45.406	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
44.867	How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported in the US in 2022?	Continuous
42.115	What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025?	Continuous
42.064	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (China)	Binary
42.009	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Russia)	Binary
41.763	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3)	Binary
41.617	When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
41.491	What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US, in billions USD, in 2022?	Continuous
40.906	Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?	Binary
40.633	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
40.418	How many migrants will die in 2022 trying to cross the Mediterranean?	Continuous
40.222	What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500?	Continuous
39.976	How many cultivated meat ventures there will be in 2022 according to the GFI State of Industry report for that year?	Continuous
38.957	Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?	Binary
38.925	Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?	Binary
38.590	How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in April 2022?	Continuous
38.306	Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?	Binary
38.287	What will be the weekly peak percent of medical visits that are for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
38.251	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
37.948	Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?	Binary
37.648	How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023?	Continuous
37.398	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
36.546	How many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025?	Continuous
36.069	Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025?	Binary
35.792	By what percentage will the total US yearly retail sales of plant-based meat in 2022 grow compared to 2020?	Continuous
35.010	In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?	Binary
34.807	Will the "Moon Cube" be shown to be non-natural before 2023?	Binary
34.492	Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?	Binary
34.289	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
33.972	Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?	Binary
32.721	What percentage of US children under 5-years-old will have at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
32.031	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?	Continuous
31.734	Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
30.972	Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?	Binary
30.864	How many positive influenza specimens will be detected by the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System in the peak week for the Northern Hemisphere over the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
30.863	Will a university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again?	Binary
30.720	Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?	Binary
30.302	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?	Binary
29.462	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
29.397	When will 50,000 Chevy Bolt EV and Chevy Bolt EUV vehicles have completed repairs for the recall relating to risk of battery fire?	Continuous
29.381	Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023?	Binary
29.014	What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?	Continuous
28.818	Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections?	Binary
28.293	How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022?	Continuous
28.024	When will Apple announce the first computer that uses the second generation of their M-series processor (likely to be named the M2)?	Continuous
28.013	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
27.466	Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?	Binary
27.413	Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?	Binary
27.119	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?	Binary
26.396	Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023?	Binary
26.269	Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?	Binary
25.795	In 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent, will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate?	Binary
25.313	Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023?	Binary
25.165	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
25.010	What is the %reduction in the secondary transmission of Delta from infected vaccinated individuals compared to infected unvaccinated individuals, according to the mean of the first 3 relevant studies?	Continuous
24.503	Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?	Binary
23.921	How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023?	Continuous
23.774	Will the US CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before August 1, 2022?	Binary
23.698	Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
23.439	Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
23.425	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump)	Binary
23.425	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
23.425	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
23.425	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence)	Binary
23.425	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott)	Binary
23.425	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie)	Binary
23.425	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
23.425	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
23.425	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
23.425	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump)	Binary
23.425	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake)	Binary
23.425	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders)	Binary
23.425	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene)	Binary
23.425	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
23.425	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin)	Binary
23.425	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds)	Binary
23.425	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem)	Binary
23.425	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
23.425	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
23.425	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds)	Binary
23.425	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst)	Binary
23.425	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace)	Binary
23.418	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard)	Binary
23.418	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik)	Binary
23.418	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt)	Binary
23.418	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson)	Binary
23.418	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio)	Binary
23.418	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
22.777	What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?	Continuous
22.507	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate, Dem House)	Binary
22.478	Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
22.130	Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
22.004	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
21.900	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
21.782	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate & House)	Binary
21.678	What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2022?	Continuous
21.591	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Bankman-Fried)	Binary
21.553	Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 300 questions?	Binary
21.331	Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?	Binary
21.318	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
21.149	By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be "alive"?	Binary
20.571	Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?	Binary
20.249	Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?	Binary
19.818	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?	Continuous
19.389	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York)	Binary
19.271	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey)	Binary
19.138	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD))	Binary
18.943	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
18.881	Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?	Binary
18.855	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado)	Binary
18.569	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico)	Binary
18.567	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska)	Binary
18.564	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio)	Binary
18.274	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide))	Binary
18.265	What will be the largest cultivated meat production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single facility by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
18.263	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa)	Binary
18.232	Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?	Binary
17.945	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota)	Binary
17.670	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz)	Binary
17.392	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
17.256	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
17.081	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas)	Binary
17.081	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD))	Binary
17.067	When will the pre-August 2022 peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia occur?	Continuous
16.955	What percentage of new COVID-19 deaths that occur before 1 August 2022 will be in long-term care facilities?	Continuous
16.622	Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 300 questions?	Binary
16.558	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
16.471	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida)	Binary
16.167	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire)	Binary
15.858	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia)	Binary
15.631	When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?	Continuous
15.550	What will be the minimum Antartic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023)	Continuous
15.422	What will be The Economist's estimated global excess deaths due to COVID-19 on January 1, 2023?	Continuous
15.127	How many flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, make in its lifetime?	Continuous
14.330	Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?	Binary
14.191	Will Belfast (2021) win the 2022 Best Picture Oscar?	Binary
14.146	How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks from September 17, 2021 to September 17, 2022?	Continuous
13.934	What will the number of active volcanos be in 2022?	Continuous
13.184	Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? (No) → 2024 US election considered fraudulent?	Binary
12.381	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina)	Binary
11.253	When will the Mars helicopter Ingenuity stop making successful flights for 6 months?	Continuous
10.673	Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 100 questions?	Binary
10.651	Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?	Binary
10.147	When will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments?	Continuous
10.023	When will the FDA authorize an oral antiviral treatment for SARS-CoV-2?	Continuous
8.796	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
8.708	Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024?	Binary
8.695	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022?	Continuous
8.586	How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?	Continuous
8.420	When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers?	Continuous
8.250	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD))	Binary
7.749	When will San Francisco County lift their mask mandate?	Continuous
7.351	How many dollars will it cost per month to store 1 TB on Google Cloud Archive in 2025?	Continuous
7.032	Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
7.022	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips)	Binary
6.988	[Short Fuse] Will OSHA's Emergency Temporary Standard vaccine mandate be blocked or struck down by the US Supreme Court?	Binary
5.379	Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023?	Binary
4.923	Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?	Binary
4.508	If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?	Continuous
4.251	Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023?	Binary
3.913	Will India sign the Artemis Accords before 2025?	Binary
3.799	Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?	Binary
3.611	When will the UK Labour Party next maintain a 10-point polling lead for a month?	Continuous
1.701	If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025?	Binary
1.696	Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?	Binary
1.323	What will US inflation be in 2022?	Continuous
0.993	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?	Binary
0.947	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Nishad Singh)	Binary
0.520	Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?	Binary
0.431	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Caroline Ellison)	Binary
0.362	Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?	Binary
0.192	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Gary Wang)	Binary
0.135	Will the gray wolf be relisted as Threatened or Endangered by the US before 2030?	Binary
0.075	Will the Taliban capture downtown Kandahar before the start of Ramadan?	Binary
0.046	What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?	Continuous
-	Will UK inflation as expressed by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) exceed 4% before 31 December 2021?	Binary
-	Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024?	Binary
-	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia)	Binary
-0.447	Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?	Binary
-0.525	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona)	Binary
-0.695	When will New Zealand reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
-1.999	Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?	Binary
-2.053	Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024?	Binary
-2.252	Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?	Binary
-3.397	How many medals will the USA win at Paris 2024?	Continuous
-3.581	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada)	Binary
-3.593	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania)	Binary
-3.697	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
-3.745	What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
-6.257	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin)	Binary
-6.361	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
-6.967	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan)	Binary
-10.039	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate, Rep House)	Binary
-10.186	How many deaths will be caused by terrorism globally in 2021?	Continuous
-10.291	When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (4: Negotiations approved)	Continuous
-10.312	If Elizabeth Holmes is convicted in Theranos fraud trial, how long will her sentence be?	Continuous
-10.455	What will be the peak Covid-19 Hospitalization rate (new admissions per week per million) in the US in these years? (2023)	Continuous
-11.310	Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
-12.146	Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?	Binary
-15.170	Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
-15.336	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House)	Binary
-15.522	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
-17.209	Will a state actor conduct an ASAT test that results in space debris between 2021 - 2023?	Binary
-18.840	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Ukraine)	Binary
-19.099	Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?	Binary
-20.069	When will Japan reopen for quarantine-free international tourism?	Continuous
-20.127	What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?	Continuous
-20.262	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
-21.654	Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025?	Binary
-22.828	Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025?	Binary
-23.963	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 21st of January, 2022?	Continuous
-25.171	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
-25.271	When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (3: Negotiations recommended)	Continuous
-26.491	Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?	Binary
-28.833	What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?	Continuous
-29.429	Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?	Binary
-31.018	How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported globally in 2022?	Continuous
-33.427	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?	Continuous
-36.364	How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022?	Continuous
-41.575	What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016?	Continuous
-43.810	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (India)	Binary
-44.146	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
-53.137	Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?	Binary
-55.088	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023)	Binary
-59.632	Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?	Binary
-60.588	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative)	Continuous
-67.351	[short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022?	Binary
-69.330	When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (5: Negotiations initiated)	Continuous
-77.430	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-104.004	Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023?	Binary
-114.497	When will the U.S. CDC recommend that all fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?	Continuous
-120.428	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
-122.807	Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?	Binary
-129.162	Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022?	Binary
-142.451	How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?	Continuous
-168.824	Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?	Binary
-192.353	What will be the maximum Antartic sea ice extent in these years? (2023)	Continuous