AvrahamEisenberg

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2020 - 2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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3.139k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
162.825	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jun 14, 2021)	Continuous
142.906	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
120.872	How many consumer plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) will be sold in the US in 2020?	Continuous
115.234	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for January 2021?	Continuous
114.386	What will be the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on December 31, 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?	Continuous
108.501	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
107.996	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD?	Continuous
107.173	How efficacious will the Sputnik V SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be according to the peer reviewed results of the Phase 3 RCT?	Continuous
103.153	What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
101.918	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021?	Continuous
97.784	Will Trump freely leave the White House?	Binary
96.335	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for January 2021?	Continuous
95.846	How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
94.611	For the month of February 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
94.550	Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21?	Binary
94.027	What will be the COVID-19: Government Response Stringency Index for the US be on February 1st 2021?	Continuous
92.062	How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
89.713	How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?	Continuous
87.911	Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?	Binary
83.903	What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
83.554	Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?	Binary
82.604	For the month of January 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
80.018	How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
78.465	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
77.018	Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?	Binary
76.461	Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?	Binary
76.413	Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?	Binary
76.337	Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
76.116	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?	Binary
75.876	What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?	Continuous
72.267	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?	Binary
72.264	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
72.257	What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?	Continuous
71.503	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
71.113	What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?	Continuous
69.454	What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
69.198	How will Donald Trump rank among presidents?	Continuous
67.509	Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?	Binary
67.099	Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?	Binary
65.437	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
65.137	What will the total retail sales including food services be for January 2021?	Continuous
64.463	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
63.644	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
61.848	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
61.782	How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
58.849	How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
58.555	Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?	Binary
58.422	Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?	Binary
57.281	Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?	Binary
57.067	Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?	Binary
56.432	How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?	Continuous
54.330	Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?	Binary
52.364	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?	Binary
51.685	If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed?	Binary
50.807	Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?	Binary
50.729	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for February 2021?	Continuous
50.522	How much will High Impact Athletes have donated by the end of 2021?	Continuous
50.468	Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?	Binary
49.569	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2021?	Binary
49.146	Will the Open Courts Act become law?	Binary
48.652	What will the margin of victory be between John Ossoff and David Perdue in the 2020 5 Jan GA (Regular) Runoff Election?	Continuous
47.761	Will the results of the Electoral College be formally challenged in the House in 2021?	Binary
47.060	What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
45.386	Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?	Binary
43.219	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be United States-based in the TOP500 list on the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
43.137	What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
39.370	What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?	Continuous
38.532	On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?	Binary
38.427	Will the Supreme Court of the US uphold the lower court's ruling in California v. Texas?	Binary
38.340	Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?	Binary
38.127	What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
37.954	Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?	Binary
37.689	How many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021?	Continuous
37.538	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
37.488	Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?	Binary
36.948	What will the total deal value be of all the US Private Equity deals in billions of US$, in 2020?	Continuous
36.156	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
35.877	Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?	Binary
35.514	If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name?	Binary
35.241	Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
33.727	What will China's unemployment rate be for Q1 2021?	Continuous
33.624	When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?	Continuous
33.308	Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?	Binary
33.281	Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself?	Binary
33.103	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?	Continuous
32.109	What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?	Continuous
31.672	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
30.304	Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?	Binary
29.944	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-02-21 through 2021-02-27?	Continuous
29.086	Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?	Binary
28.572	How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
28.168	Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021?	Binary
27.375	Will James Lindsay receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
26.944	Will Charles Murray receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
26.267	Will three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021?	Binary
26.255	Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?	Binary
26.127	What will be the lowest closing value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average before it reaches a new all-time record high close?	Continuous
26.033	Will Richard Spencer receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
25.883	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?	Continuous
25.691	Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?	Binary
24.943	What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?	Continuous
24.002	When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
21.839	When will the U.S. rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement?	Continuous
21.385	When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
20.341	What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?	Continuous
20.058	How effective will a second RCT find the most effective regimen of the AstraZenca SARS-CoV-2 vaccine to be?	Continuous
19.662	When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L3)	Continuous
17.596	How many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from ROS.org in the year ending July 2021?	Continuous
15.407	Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?	Binary
13.837	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for February 2021?	Continuous
13.363	What will the US Q4 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
13.000	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2020?	Continuous
12.220	When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?	Continuous
11.594	What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
10.101	Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?	Binary
9.163	Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year?	Binary
8.697	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online?	Binary
8.399	Will a Glastonbury Festival take place in 2021?	Binary
6.019	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s?	Binary
5.437	What will the percentage difference between full time tenure-track and non-tenure track employment in US baccalaureate institutions be in the 2020-2021 school year?	Continuous
4.000	Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family?	Binary
3.272	Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?	Binary
3.178	What will the size of Singapore's total foreign workforce be, for the first month after 2020-12-01 for which data is published?	Continuous
1.889	When will the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new all-time record high close after the Coronavirus Crash of February 2020?	Continuous
1.283	If California passes Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, what will Uber's adjusted EBITDA for the mobility segment be in Q1 2021?	Continuous
1.129	Will it turn out that Bloomberg manipulated 2020 election prediction markets?	Binary
0.463	When will the first Macs with Apple Silicon ship?	Continuous
0.301	For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?	Binary
0.163	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be mail-in or absentee?	Continuous
-	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
-1.841	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
-3.522	What will the margin of victory be between Kelly Loeffler and Raphael Warnock in the 2020 5 Jan GA Special Election?	Continuous
-3.948	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in February 2021?	Continuous
-7.101	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be cast via early in-person voting?	Continuous
-9.208	Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?	Binary
-9.685	By February 1st, 2021, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?	Binary
-10.548	If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?	Continuous
-11.709	Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?	Binary
-12.204	When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?	Continuous
-12.234	Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?	Binary
-12.696	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
-17.138	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?	Continuous
-18.686	Will a high profile criminal investigation take down a "hidden website" on the Tor Network during 2021?	Binary
-21.125	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
-23.316	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
-28.451	Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?	Binary
-30.439	Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?	Binary
-30.966	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
-33.702	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?	Binary
-37.883	What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
-39.139	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
-49.218	Will the US Senate Majority Leader be a Republican on February 1st 2021?	Binary
-49.319	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
-51.132	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
-51.270	Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?	Binary
-57.518	What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021?	Continuous
-58.314	Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?	Binary
-64.431	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in January 2021?	Continuous
-69.363	How many consumer electric vehicles (including PHEV, HEV and EV) will be sold by Volkswagen group in 2020?	Continuous
-70.500	How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021?	Continuous
-73.559	Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?	Binary
-74.158	Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD?	Binary
-85.388	When will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?	Continuous
-110.552	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede? [closes 2021-01-20]	Continuous
-111.243	Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day?	Binary
-124.032	What will inflation be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
-124.237	How many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021?	Continuous
-135.185	What will be the value of C-band spectrum auctioned off by the FCC in Auction 107?	Continuous
-136.825	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?	Continuous
-139.751	What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
-140.545	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
-158.323	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for January 2021?	Continuous
-161.144	What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?	Continuous
-176.973	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jun-2021)	Continuous
-198.834	Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
-203.271	When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Continuous
-224.999	How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?	Continuous