bte

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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3.304k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
108.227	What share of global payments in 2023 will be in Chinese renminbi?	Continuous
97.841	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
96.806	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
96.575	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
96.259	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
96.187	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
95.365	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
94.929	Will the US “Rewards for Justice” program pay the $10M reward offered for information on the interference in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
93.476	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
93.340	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
93.093	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
92.586	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
92.032	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
91.321	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
90.244	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
88.944	What will China's Corruption Perception Index level be in 2023?	Continuous
88.928	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
88.361	Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
88.291	Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024?	Binary
87.376	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
86.780	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
86.598	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
86.086	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jared Kushner)	Binary
86.086	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Blake Masters)	Binary
86.085	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sheryl Sandberg)	Binary
86.085	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (John Legere)	Binary
84.694	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination?	Binary
84.606	Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024?	Binary
84.604	Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2)	Binary
83.775	Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?	Binary
83.514	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jason Calacanis)	Binary
82.836	Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024?	Binary
82.672	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
82.628	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023?	Binary
80.887	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sriram Krishnan)	Binary
80.848	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
79.734	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
79.439	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
78.443	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
78.207	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (David Sacks)	Binary
78.207	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Lex Fridman)	Binary
78.201	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
77.175	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
76.508	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
75.359	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
74.490	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
74.147	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
74.144	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
73.732	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?	Binary
73.350	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
72.767	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
72.658	Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024?	Binary
72.619	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
72.390	Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?	Binary
71.923	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
70.695	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
69.425	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
67.767	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
66.955	Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024?	Binary
66.872	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Elon Musk)	Binary
65.418	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
64.376	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
63.181	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Meatpacking)	Binary
63.177	Will there be a publicly reported cyberattack against the global navigation satellite systems between April 1, 2022 and May 31, 2023?	Binary
63.120	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
61.713	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
61.371	Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
60.796	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Peter Thiel)	Binary
59.399	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Nuclear Energy)	Binary
56.227	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
54.360	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
53.655	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
52.578	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
51.949	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (April 2023)	Continuous
48.622	Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?	Binary
48.505	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
46.434	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
45.943	Depending on Ukraine striking targets in Russian territory, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukraine strikes)	Binary
45.925	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
45.145	Will Tsinghua University bar some students from returning to the dorms for the 2023 Spring Semester?	Binary
44.805	Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
43.799	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2023)	Binary
43.309	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
40.382	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
37.547	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
36.548	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
34.840	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Aviation)	Binary
33.363	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
33.202	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
32.552	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
31.076	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
30.852	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
27.524	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Gas/Oil Pipeline)	Binary
26.125	Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024?	Binary
25.596	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
25.195	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Water Treatment)	Binary
24.128	What will be the average annual level of PM2.5 in Beijing, China in 2023?	Continuous
23.847	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
23.335	In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?	Binary
22.890	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
22.855	Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023?	Binary
21.354	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
21.134	Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
20.359	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
20.053	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
19.889	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
19.107	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
18.830	Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023?	Binary
18.601	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
18.408	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
15.588	In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?	Binary
15.558	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (January 14)	Continuous
14.751	When will Boris Johnson no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
14.250	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (October 2023)	Continuous
11.466	Will it become public that the FBI sought a warrant to launch an operation to disrupt web shells on private computers in 2022?	Binary
10.920	What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2023)	Continuous
10.469	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023)	Binary
10.388	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (January 28)	Continuous
9.540	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
9.466	When will the next major bridge collapse occur in the USA?	Continuous
8.783	When will GPT-4 be announced?	Continuous
7.339	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
6.939	Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
4.574	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
3.942	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
3.052	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (January 14)	Continuous
-0.320	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
-1.553	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
-2.547	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (January 28)	Continuous
-4.667	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
-8.019	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
-10.225	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
-10.287	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
-11.557	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
-12.136	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
-12.239	How many entities will be allowed to use blockchain applications in China by 2024?	Continuous
-14.995	Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?	Binary
-15.162	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
-16.977	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (February 11)	Continuous
-17.084	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
-19.011	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (January 14)	Continuous
-19.733	Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
-20.894	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (February 11)	Continuous
-25.467	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?	Binary
-26.661	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (January 28)	Continuous
-26.805	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
-42.307	In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?	Binary
-45.645	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
-48.769	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
-50.763	Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?	Binary
-77.781	Will China adopt any legislation or regulations to prevent contamination of the environment with antimicrobials by 2024?	Binary
-86.963	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
-87.447	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
-97.699	Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024?	Binary
-100.193	When will Zelenskyy next be pictured in a suit on his Instagram?	Continuous
-103.907	When will the CMMC (Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification) 2.0 rule-making process conclude?	Continuous
-153.213	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
-156.142	How many surveillance cameras per 1000 people will the most surveilled city in China have in 2023?	Continuous
-162.767	Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?	Binary
-166.065	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
-175.348	How many of the companies in China's 'AI Quartet' (not counting SenseTime) will be public before 2024?	Continuous
-182.424	What will be the market cap of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023?	Continuous
-188.818	How many parameters will the latest version of the Chinese Wu Dao AI model have before 2024?	Continuous
-189.087	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
-190.760	How many quantum computing patents will China have filed before 2024?	Continuous
-192.338	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
-195.465	How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?	Continuous
-215.249	What rank will "Improving Sino-Western Coordination on Global Catastrophic Risk" be on 80,000 Hours's "highest-impact career paths" list on January 1, 2024?	Continuous
-222.605	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
-392.682	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary