| 101.774 | How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024? | Continuous |
| 99.518 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 98.783 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 98.023 | When will the Republican presidential nominee next win the state of Massachusetts in a US Presidential Election? (2024) | Binary |
| 97.146 | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 97.098 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
| 96.922 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 95.946 | Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025? | Binary |
| 94.871 | Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? | Binary |
| 94.683 | Trump Removed or Blocked From Primary Ballot? (No) → 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 93.581 | Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025? | Binary |
| 91.240 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 91.204 | Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025? | Binary |
| 90.973 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 90.855 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
| 90.519 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
| 90.490 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 86.454 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 86.349 | How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 85.245 | Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 84.756 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 84.242 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
| 83.759 | How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 83.156 | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 82.694 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
| 81.363 | By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 80.228 | How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024? | Continuous |
| 78.826 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 78.774 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 78.774 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 78.677 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 78.677 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 78.121 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 77.911 | Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 77.186 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan) | Binary |
| 77.025 | Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 74.905 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 74.640 | Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU? | Binary |
| 71.995 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
| 70.473 | What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 70.419 | Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 70.246 | Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 69.512 | Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024? | Binary |
| 68.931 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 68.819 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 68.710 | In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state? | Binary |
| 67.284 | Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 66.959 | Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 66.950 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | Binary |
| 66.869 | Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 66.837 | Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023? | Binary |
| 66.188 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 66.188 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
| 66.188 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 66.183 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 66.183 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
| 66.183 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
| 66.096 | By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 65.695 | What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022? | Continuous |
| 65.580 | Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025? | Binary |
| 65.414 | Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 65.310 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 65.279 | Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024? | Binary |
| 64.547 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024) | Binary |
| 64.545 | Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022? | Binary |
| 64.330 | By what percentage will the total US yearly retail sales of plant-based meat in 2022 grow compared to 2020? | Continuous |
| 63.825 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 63.175 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 62.126 | Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025? | Binary |
| 61.560 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 60.977 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan) | Binary |
| 60.650 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 60.606 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 60.118 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 59.739 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024? | Binary |
| 59.643 | Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 59.620 | What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022? | Continuous |
| 59.085 | Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025? | Binary |
| 59.033 | Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025? | Binary |
| 56.846 | Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024? | Binary |
| 56.680 | In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results? | Binary |
| 56.179 | By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 56.110 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 56.110 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 56.110 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
| 56.110 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds) | Binary |
| 55.921 | By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty? | Binary |
| 55.852 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
| 55.852 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
| 55.852 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
| 55.852 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst) | Binary |
| 55.852 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace) | Binary |
| 55.475 | How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| 55.461 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 55.461 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 55.461 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 55.461 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 55.461 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 55.461 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
| 55.461 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds) | Binary |
| 55.305 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 55.271 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 55.092 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
| 55.071 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik) | Binary |
| 54.972 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 54.911 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake) | Binary |
| 54.616 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 54.602 | What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US, in billions USD, in 2022? | Continuous |
| 54.484 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023? | Binary |
| 53.885 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
| 53.800 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt) | Binary |
| 53.640 | Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam? | Binary |
| 52.997 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 52.861 | Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates? | Binary |
| 52.373 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 51.749 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 51.715 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
| 50.568 | How many weeks will Virginia experience “widespread” influenza activity during the 2021-2022 flu season? | Continuous |
| 49.593 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 49.586 | Will 2022 be the hottest year on record? | Binary |
| 49.176 | What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 48.722 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson) | Binary |
| 48.713 | Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 48.062 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio) | Binary |
| 46.589 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 46.589 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
| 46.589 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
| 46.589 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
| 46.557 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 46.360 | Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 46.204 | What will be the average unemployment in the US from January 2022 to December 2024? | Continuous |
| 45.713 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 45.425 | Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023? | Binary |
| 43.878 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 42.129 | Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 41.828 | Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)? | Binary |
| 41.297 | When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human? | Continuous |
| 40.677 | What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025? | Continuous |
| 40.525 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 40.111 | Will an additional state join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 39.906 | By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 38.769 | Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections? | Binary |
| 38.643 | How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 37.602 | If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 36.966 | Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 36.965 | How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022? | Continuous |
| 36.153 | Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022? | Binary |
| 35.470 | How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| 34.726 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement? | Binary |
| 34.300 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate, Dem House) | Binary |
| 34.244 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate & House) | Binary |
| 33.590 | What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
| 31.619 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House) | Binary |
| 31.026 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 30.697 | Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023? | Binary |
| 30.329 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023? | Binary |
| 26.436 | When will WHO recommend widespread use of a malaria vaccine that is >75% effective? | Continuous |
| 26.213 | Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024? | Binary |
| 26.020 | Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 25.779 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Bankman-Fried) | Binary |
| 25.641 | What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500? | Continuous |
| 25.499 | How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Amazon affiliation? | Continuous |
| 25.070 | How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 24.607 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate, Rep House) | Binary |
| 24.237 | Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023? | Binary |
| 23.499 | Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023? | Binary |
| 23.319 | Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match? | Binary |
| 23.113 | Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022? | Binary |
| 22.722 | Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 22.430 | Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023? | Binary |
| 22.312 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 22.040 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 21.282 | How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023? | Continuous |
| 20.400 | Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 20.286 | Will Elon Musk face US federal criminal charges or an SEC civil complaint before 2026? | Binary |
| 20.123 | Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025? | Binary |
| 19.575 | Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025? | Binary |
| 19.575 | Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025? | Binary |
| 19.062 | In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received? | Binary |
| 18.377 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
| 17.204 | Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024? | Binary |
| 17.025 | Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023? | Binary |
| 16.395 | Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025? | Binary |
| 15.863 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas) | Binary |
| 15.863 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah) | Binary |
| 15.863 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power) | Binary |
| 15.863 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government) | Binary |
| 15.835 | Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025? | Binary |
| 15.301 | What will be the lowest US unemployment rate in 2022? | Continuous |
| 14.980 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 13.786 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| 13.617 | 5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 13.523 | Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 13.240 | Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023? | Binary |
| 13.137 | Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023? | Binary |
| 13.128 | What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (April 2024) | Continuous |
| 12.868 | Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates? | Binary |
| 12.569 | What will US inflation be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 12.459 | By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis? | Binary |
| 12.379 | What will the price of oil be for December 2022? | Continuous |
| 12.030 | Before 2025, will the US FDA authorize use of an at-home over-the-counter rapid test for influenza? | Binary |
| 11.559 | When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers? | Continuous |
| 11.531 | How much will a pound of fresh beef cost in cents in January 2023? | Continuous |
| 10.853 | Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025? | Binary |
| 10.321 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Russia) | Binary |
| 9.041 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 8.863 | Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023? | Binary |
| 8.478 | How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 8.038 | Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 7.805 | What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 7.498 | What will be the British male life expectancy at birth in 2021 according to the UK Office of National Statistics? | Continuous |
| 7.355 | Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023? | Binary |
| 7.320 | What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose as of 4 May 2022? | Continuous |
| 6.491 | Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections? | Binary |
| 5.848 | Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025? | Binary |
| 5.599 | Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023? | Binary |
| 5.497 | Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election? | Binary |
| 5.062 | What will be the largest cultivated meat production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single facility by January 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 5.060 | Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads? | Binary |
| 4.695 | What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID cases in the US between January 1, 2022 to April 1, 2022? | Continuous |
| 4.390 | Will Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024? | Binary |
| 4.339 | Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024? | Binary |
| 4.184 | Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023? | Binary |
| 3.811 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Nishad Singh) | Binary |
| 3.312 | Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 3.242 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election? | Binary |
| 3.154 | Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022? | Binary |
| 2.940 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 2.690 | Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025? | Binary |
| 2.547 | How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023? | Continuous |
| 2.141 | Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026? | Binary |
| 2.099 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Caroline Ellison) | Binary |
| 0.899 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel) | Binary |
| 0.733 | Will a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022? | Binary |
| 0.661 | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (2: Candidacy granted) | Continuous |
| 0.363 | What will Virginia's percent unemployment rate be in April 2022? | Continuous |
| 0.278 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (United States) | Binary |
| 0.265 | How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2022? | Continuous |
| 0.235 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Vietnam) | Binary |
| 0.235 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Brazil) | Binary |
| 0.234 | Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11? | Binary |
| 0.216 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (China) | Binary |
| 0.186 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Thailand) | Binary |
| 0.097 | When will the percentage of Virginians who have received a booster dose exceed 50%? | Continuous |
| 0.086 | When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable cases occur? | Continuous |
| 0.068 | When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur? | Continuous |
| - | Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session? | Binary |
| - | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested) | Binary |
| -0.120 | What will the number of active volcanos be in 2022? | Continuous |
| -0.430 | Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023? | Binary |
| -0.945 | Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| -1.698 | Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024? | Binary |
| -4.535 | Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years? | Binary |
| -5.323 | What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2022? | Continuous |
| -5.581 | If Elizabeth Holmes is convicted in Theranos fraud trial, how long will her sentence be? | Continuous |
| -5.795 | What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025? | Continuous |
| -6.605 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| -6.791 | Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections? | Binary |
| -9.205 | By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| -9.539 | Will the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war be publicly available by 2023? | Binary |
| -11.092 | What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022? | Continuous |
| -11.164 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| -12.113 | By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| -12.334 | [short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022? | Binary |
| -13.238 | What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants? | Continuous |
| -17.071 | Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024? | Binary |
| -19.878 | What will President Joe Biden's net approval rating be on November 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| -20.965 | How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| -37.533 | When will 100M doses of Moderna's Omicron-specific booster candidate or multi-valent booster candidates be distributed? | Continuous |
| -37.765 | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (4: Negotiations approved) | Continuous |
| -46.560 | By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? | Binary |
| -51.937 | Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023? | Binary |
| -56.716 | How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022? | Continuous |
| -59.848 | Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025? | Binary |
| -66.274 | How many State of AI Report 2021 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2022 report? | Continuous |
| -72.104 | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | Binary |
| -72.990 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| -74.286 | How many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025? | Continuous |
| -78.576 | What will China’s GDP be in 2023? | Continuous |
| -79.341 | When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally? | Continuous |
| -80.712 | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023) | Binary |
| -85.981 | Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022? | Binary |
| -98.457 | What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area? | Continuous |
| -99.990 | Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023? | Binary |
| -104.786 | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (5: Negotiations initiated) | Continuous |
| -105.268 | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (3: Negotiations recommended) | Continuous |
| -114.979 | When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users? | Continuous |
| -123.067 | When will Julian Assange be extradited to the US? | Continuous |
| -133.275 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
| -150.328 | Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022? | Binary |
| -151.803 | Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024? | Binary |
| -171.777 | How many dollars will it cost per month to store 1 TB on Google Cloud Archive in 2025? | Continuous |
| -202.268 | Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
| -219.814 | How many Japanese Air Force responses to Chinese military threats there will be by 2024? | Continuous |
| -221.858 | How many Chinese institutions of higher education will get approved for an artificial intelligence undergraduate program in 2023? | Continuous |
| -284.434 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| -292.231 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -321.225 | Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024? | Binary |
| -329.550 | Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform? | Binary |
| -339.939 | Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024? | Binary |
| -476.204 | Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024? | Binary |
| -523.839 | Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024? | Binary |