citizen

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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14.84k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
183.404	How many birds will be affected by avian influenza in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
157.496	How many mpox cases will Virginia report in the second quarter of 2023?	Continuous
148.837	How many countries will have approved the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
131.996	When will bivalent booster uptake in Virginia's 65+ population exceed 50%?	Continuous
126.332	What will the the total value of property damage (in US dollars) caused by tornados be in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
125.310	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (June 17)	Continuous
124.241	How many days will the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in 2023?	Continuous
123.708	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (June 3)	Continuous
119.625	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 1)	Continuous
118.947	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 15)	Continuous
117.668	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (May 20)	Continuous
115.909	What will the highest monthly count of false English language COVID claims in 2023?	Continuous
113.836	When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water?	Continuous
109.290	What will be the highest daily Heat Related Illness (HRI) visit count in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
106.759	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (May 6)	Continuous
106.309	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 29)	Continuous
104.953	How many airborne objects will be shot down in North American airspace in 2023?	Continuous
98.898	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Christian Zurita)	Binary
97.492	Will there no longer be any authorized COVID therapeutic in the U.S. in 2023?	Binary
96.940	Will the US Housing Market crash in 2023?	Binary
96.715	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?	Binary
96.593	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
95.996	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
95.923	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
95.301	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
95.132	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
94.995	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 100)	Binary
94.955	Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?	Binary
94.790	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Bolívar Armijos)	Binary
94.790	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Yaku Pérez Guartambel)	Binary
94.790	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Otto Sonnenholzner)	Binary
94.755	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Xavier Hervas)	Binary
94.584	Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?	Binary
94.270	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Jan Topić)	Binary
94.029	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 300)	Binary
92.950	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 600)	Binary
92.368	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
92.242	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba)	Binary
92.118	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa)	Binary
91.953	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
91.529	Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate?	Binary
91.457	Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
91.426	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2024)	Binary
91.347	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
90.994	Will Russia assume the presidency of the UN Security Council on April 1, 2023?	Binary
90.858	Will the Palestinian Authority declare itself bankrupt before the end of 2023?	Binary
90.050	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
89.953	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)	Binary
89.703	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
89.161	Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season?	Binary
89.000	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
88.209	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (April 22)	Continuous
87.536	Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR COVID-like illness (CLI) visits in Virginia during summer 2023 exceed the same peak during the preceding winter 2022-2023?	Binary
87.495	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
87.141	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
86.779	Will NASA re-establish communications with Voyager 1 before 1 Jan 2024?	Binary
85.366	How many tornado segments will be reported in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
84.499	Will France send their military to intervene in the Gabonese coup in 2023?	Binary
84.429	Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?	Binary
84.015	Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?	Binary
83.637	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
83.312	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
82.956	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)	Binary
82.848	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)	Binary
82.818	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)	Binary
82.731	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
82.671	Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?	Binary
82.505	Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting?	Binary
82.407	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)	Binary
82.359	What will be the official death count for the 2023 Hawai'i wildfires as of January 1, 2024?	Continuous
82.278	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)	Binary
82.203	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
82.190	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)	Binary
82.101	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)	Binary
81.977	Will "Epidemiologists" be included on Virginia's next High Demand Occupation List?	Binary
81.879	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
81.772	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
81.725	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
81.424	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
81.340	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)	Binary
81.219	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
81.103	Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2024)	Binary
80.934	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
80.732	Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?	Binary
80.566	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
79.475	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
79.167	Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023?	Binary
78.761	When will the next volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland begin?	Continuous
78.468	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
76.995	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
76.897	How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
76.690	Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?	Binary
76.446	Will a US spot Ethereum ETF be approved in 2023?	Binary
76.353	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
76.113	Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2024)	Binary
76.055	What percentage of Virginia adults will be vaccinated against influenza by the week ending December 30, 2023?	Continuous
75.407	Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?	Binary
74.712	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
73.748	Which week in late 2023 will have the highest percent of medical visits for Influenza-like Illness in Virginia?	Continuous
73.529	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
73.526	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (March 25)	Continuous
73.428	Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024?	Binary
72.814	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
72.391	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (Aug 12)	Continuous
72.322	Will OpenAI release a "product" after ChatGPT before 2024?	Binary
72.307	Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?	Binary
72.252	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
71.469	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
71.051	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
70.555	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
70.243	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
70.223	What will NVIDIA's market cap be at the end of 2023?	Continuous
69.059	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (D66)	Binary
68.675	Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023?	Binary
68.652	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
68.556	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (BBB)	Binary
68.265	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
67.991	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (CDA)	Binary
66.252	How many people will die in the Sudan conflict in 2023?	Continuous
66.133	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (March 11)	Continuous
65.851	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
65.654	How many refugee arrivals will Virginia have in US fiscal year 2023?	Continuous
65.497	Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?	Binary
65.477	Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?	Binary
65.394	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
65.253	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
65.235	Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?	Binary
64.742	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?	Binary
64.614	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
64.145	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (Feb 11)	Continuous
63.506	Will the 'Ending Agricultural Trade Suppression' Act pass in the US House of Representatives by January 3, 2024?	Binary
62.819	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
62.593	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (Feb 25)	Continuous
62.002	Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?	Binary
61.782	Will there be more than 10 ministerial resignations in Rishi Sunak’s government before 2024?	Binary
61.723	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
61.721	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
61.711	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
61.707	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
61.590	US Government Shutdown Before 2024? (No) → Johnson Speaker until 2024?	Binary
60.394	Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize?	Binary
60.052	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?	Binary
59.614	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (Feb 25)	Continuous
59.221	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
59.178	How many FDIC banks will fail in 2023?	Continuous
58.802	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
58.002	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
57.830	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
57.546	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
56.913	Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?	Binary
55.698	Will Amritpal Singh be in Indian custody before April 21, 2023?	Binary
54.743	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
54.636	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
54.540	Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2023?	Binary
53.687	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
53.466	Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?	Binary
53.327	Will there be more Antarctic sea ice on March 7, 2023 than there was on March 7, 2022?	Binary
52.497	Will the Israeli High Court uphold the "reasonableness" law?	Binary
51.902	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
51.891	Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?	Binary
51.595	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (August 19)	Continuous
51.197	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (Feb 11)	Continuous
51.181	Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023?	Binary
50.961	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
50.414	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
50.381	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
50.213	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Nancy Mace (R))	Binary
49.645	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
49.411	Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?	Binary
49.385	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
49.156	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sundar Pichai)	Binary
49.042	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
48.617	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
48.301	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
47.848	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?	Binary
47.726	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
47.623	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
47.170	What will be the total finishing time for the 2023 Boston Marathon winners (male and female combined)?	Continuous
46.458	Will copper prices reach an all-time-high in 2023?	Binary
46.243	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
46.162	When will the U.S. end the public health emergency for COVID-19?	Continuous
45.661	Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?	Binary
45.628	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (March 11)	Continuous
44.776	How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy?	Continuous
44.569	Will a mandatory evacuation order be issued for any area of Virginia related to any tropical cyclone in 2023?	Binary
43.664	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
43.658	How many countries will be less happy in 2022 as compared to 2019 according to the World Happiness Report?	Continuous
43.643	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023)	Binary
43.464	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
43.198	Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?	Binary
43.165	Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?	Binary
42.812	What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) on December 30, 2023?	Continuous
42.721	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
42.093	Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class?	Binary
41.381	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
40.814	What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023?	Continuous
39.934	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
39.064	Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29?	Binary
38.918	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
38.858	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
38.545	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
38.394	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Dec-23)	Continuous
37.899	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
37.777	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Juan Schiaretti)	Binary
37.777	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Myriam Bregman)	Binary
37.450	What will be the worldwide 7-day rolling average of confirmed mpox cases for June 30, 2023?	Continuous
36.561	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (New York Knicks)	Binary
36.543	What place will Canada get in the 2023 International Math Olympiad?	Continuous
36.495	When will New York City’s period of consecutive rainy weekends end?	Continuous
36.370	What will be the size of the 2024 EU Budget?	Continuous
36.363	How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (December 2023)	Continuous
35.874	What will be the total daily Heat Related Illness (HRI) visit counts in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
35.844	Will either the NBA Finals or the Stanley Cup Finals in 2023 go to a game 7?	Binary
35.732	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
35.569	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
35.550	How many additional H5N1 infections will be reported in wild birds across the United States by the end of March 2023?	Continuous
34.885	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (All other teams)	Binary
34.447	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
34.145	Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?	Binary
33.453	Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?	Binary
33.195	[Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023?	Binary
32.278	Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023?	Binary
31.950	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
31.356	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
30.115	What will be the annual average retail gasoline price (in 2022 USD per gallon) in the United States in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
29.928	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
29.628	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
28.300	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
28.203	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
27.304	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
26.735	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Golden State Warriors)	Binary
26.390	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Dario Amodei)	Binary
25.553	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Cole (R))	Binary
25.173	What rating will Bethesda's video game Starfield have on Steam two weeks after release?	Continuous
24.564	Fed raises interest rates in June 2023? (No) → S&P 500 closing value on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
23.853	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
22.992	In 2023, will a non-European team win the FIFA Club World Cup for the first time since 2012?	Binary
22.785	Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
22.564	When will the U.S. CDC stop requiring line-level (patient-level) COVID-19 case data from states?	Continuous
22.527	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Dec-23)	Continuous
21.912	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (New Jersey Devils)	Binary
21.520	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
20.958	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Patricia Bullrich)	Binary
20.772	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
20.384	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Sacramento Kings)	Binary
19.838	Russian Coup or Regime Change before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
19.559	Will the S&P 500 increase or decrease by more than 2% when the Federal Open Market Committee meets on March 21-22, 2023?	Binary
19.542	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Phoenix Suns)	Binary
18.760	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Emmer (R))	Binary
18.497	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
18.070	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Rabiu Kwankwaso)	Binary
18.018	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Minnesota Wild)	Binary
17.700	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
17.580	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
17.194	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Boston Celtics)	Binary
16.468	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
16.437	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Atiku Abubakar)	Binary
16.103	Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024?	Binary
15.893	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Adam Schiff (D))	Binary
15.893	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Katie Porter (D))	Binary
15.855	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D))	Binary
15.851	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Hunter Biden (D))	Binary
15.681	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Barbara Lee (D))	Binary
15.644	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Edmonton Oilers)	Binary
15.422	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Clippers)	Binary
15.316	Will the Arctic sea ice extent be lower on each day of 2023 compared to that of 2012?	Binary
15.261	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Austin Scott (R))	Binary
14.823	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
13.407	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
13.233	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
13.048	When will the successor to Kevin McCarthy be elected as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives?	Continuous
13.022	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Lee Zeldin (R))	Binary
12.646	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Cleveland Cavaliers)	Binary
12.558	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Toronto Maple Leafs)	Binary
12.363	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
12.209	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Philadelphia 76ers)	Binary
11.440	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Ash Regan)	Binary
10.956	Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?	Binary
10.504	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?	Binary
10.263	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Houston Astros)	Binary
10.123	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (NY Rangers)	Binary
10.097	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Humza Yusaf)	Binary
9.424	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Kate Forbes)	Binary
9.295	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (September 2)	Continuous
8.777	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
7.746	Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023?	Binary
7.699	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Brian Fitzpatrick (R))	Binary
7.491	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Tampa Bay Lightning)	Binary
7.185	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Memphis Grizzlies)	Binary
6.820	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Dallas Stars)	Binary
6.627	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (Aug 26)	Continuous
6.449	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Carolina Hurricanes)	Binary
5.594	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
5.453	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
5.414	Will any additional Republican candidates for president drop out before 2024?	Binary
5.358	Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended?	Binary
4.934	What will be the final value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2023?	Continuous
4.498	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Colorado Avalanche)	Binary
4.474	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Justice Leondra Kruger (D))	Binary
4.423	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (April 8)	Continuous
4.174	Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?	Binary
4.018	Will countries commit at least 100 US/German-made modern main battle tanks to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
3.788	Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?	Binary
3.361	When will the U.S. CDC recommend an additional updated COVID-19 vaccine booster dose for adults?	Continuous
3.137	Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?	Binary
2.932	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
2.603	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Mayor London Breed (D))	Binary
2.496	Debt Limit Increased or Suspended in 2023? (Yes) → U.S. Debt Default Before 2024?	Binary
2.384	Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?	Binary
2.329	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Milwaukee Bucks)	Binary
2.280	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Boston Bruins)	Binary
1.626	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (LA Kings)	Binary
1.534	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Maxine Waters (D))	Binary
0.969	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Mayor Karen Bass (D))	Binary
0.827	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?	Binary
0.765	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Sec. of State Shirley Weber (D))	Binary
0.765	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Angela Glover Blackwell (D))	Binary
0.146	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+Greens)	Binary
0.145	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (Greens+CDU)	Binary
0.144	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+Greens+FDP)	Binary
0.142	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+SPD+Greens)	Binary
0.134	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+FDP+Greens)	Binary
0.133	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+SPD+FDP)	Binary
0.121	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Denver Nuggets)	Binary
-0.121	[Short Fuse] How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress?	Continuous
-0.300	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+CDU)	Binary
-0.354	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+Greens+Left)	Binary
-2.232	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Mike Johnson (R))	Binary
-3.028	Will Estonia legalize gay marriage in 2023?	Binary
-3.057	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
-4.443	Will the statutory debt limit be increased or suspended for at least 30 days in the United States before 2024?	Binary
-8.119	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Lakers)	Binary
-8.246	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Laphonza Butler (D))	Binary
-8.615	When will the procurement and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines in the U.S. be managed by the commercial marketplace?	Continuous
-8.834	Which week in late 2023 will influenza intensity levels first be categorized as moderate in at least one of Virginia's regions in the 2023-24 flu season?	Continuous
-11.281	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Arizona Diamondbacks)	Binary
-12.385	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Vegas Golden Knights)	Binary
-14.380	Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-15.085	What percentage of wastewater treatment plants in Virginia will be in the higher or highest percentile groups for SARS-CoV-2 for the week ending November 26, 2023?	Continuous
-15.112	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Florida Panthers)	Binary
-15.735	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
-16.517	When will the WHO COVID-19 PHEIC expire?	Continuous
-16.671	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (All Other Teams Not Listed)	Binary
-18.219	Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
-18.567	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
-19.387	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Philadelphia Phillies)	Binary
-20.248	How many workers will go on strike as part of major work stoppages in the US in 2023?	Continuous
-27.441	How many NCAA Division I schools will have both their men’s and women’s basketball teams make the 2023 NCAA Division I Basketball Tournament?	Continuous
-36.343	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Luisa González)	Binary
-36.857	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Daniel Noboa Azín)	Binary
-47.553	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-47.782	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (March 25)	Continuous
-51.109	In which epidemiological week will the overall national RSV hospitalization rate per 100,000 first equal or exceed 1.0?	Continuous
-51.835	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
-52.634	Will the EU Parliament endorse a negotiating mandate for the AI Act before June 16, 2023?	Binary
-52.760	Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
-56.205	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Texas Rangers)	Binary
-56.372	How many days will any region in Virginia experience coastal flood, high wind, hurricane, or tropical storm in 2023?	Continuous
-61.753	Will the US Congress approve additional aid for Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
-63.878	When will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute indicate at least 13 of Virginia's 35 health districts are in a "surge" trajectory?	Continuous
-68.648	Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?	Binary
-71.893	Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
-78.126	Will the 2023 Presidential Elections in Sierra Leone proceed to a runoff?	Binary
-94.204	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
-101.907	Will New York City break its record by going more than 332 days without measurable snow?	Binary
-103.127	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-210.221	Will the US FDA authorize a new vaccine targeting COVID-19 in 2023?	Binary
-221.630	Will US sovereign debt be downgraded in 2023?	Binary
-346.984	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (PVV)	Binary

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