| 191.399 | What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 136.012 | How much money will the FTX Foundation distribute in 2023? | Continuous |
| 124.754 | How many additional indictments will have been filed against Donald Trump on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 124.140 | When will the percentage of Virginians who have received a booster dose exceed 50%? | Continuous |
| 121.381 | How many influenza-associated pediatric deaths will there be in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season? | Continuous |
| 112.533 | How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes? | Continuous |
| 112.241 | When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases fall below 1015? | Continuous |
| 105.922 | When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 hospitalizations fall below 49? | Continuous |
| 105.873 | How many total arm sales to Taiwan will the US State Department approve between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 104.434 | What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022? | Continuous |
| 99.931 | How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| 99.747 | Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 99.095 | What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be? | Continuous |
| 99.075 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 98.953 | Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 98.878 | Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 98.610 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
| 98.610 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 98.531 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 98.517 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 98.516 | Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 98.458 | When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify? | Continuous |
| 98.254 | When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO? | Continuous |
| 98.058 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
| 98.026 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 98.022 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Frank Pallone (D)) | Binary |
| 97.973 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 97.868 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
| 97.851 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 97.780 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 97.747 | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
| 97.565 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 97.428 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 97.201 | Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 97.077 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 97.057 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
| 96.903 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 96.679 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 96.408 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| 96.395 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Lt. Governor Tahesha Way (D)) | Binary |
| 95.971 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 95.963 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 95.864 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 95.830 | How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 95.710 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 95.694 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 95.631 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Andy Kim (D)) | Binary |
| 95.631 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Donald Norcross (D)) | Binary |
| 95.631 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Josh Gottheimer (D)) | Binary |
| 95.631 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Bonnie Watson Coleman (D)) | Binary |
| 95.609 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 95.496 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
| 95.426 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
| 95.124 | What will Virginia's percent unemployment rate be in April 2022? | Continuous |
| 94.642 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 94.441 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
| 93.904 | India Acts in Pakistan by 2024 Election? (No) → Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025? | Binary |
| 93.723 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds) | Binary |
| 93.621 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 93.541 | Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 92.996 | Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 92.836 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Etienne Bacrot) | Binary |
| 92.836 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Yuriy Kuzubov) | Binary |
| 92.834 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexander Grischuk) | Binary |
| 92.677 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Mikie Sherrill (D)) | Binary |
| 92.636 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vishwanathan Anand) | Binary |
| 92.473 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hans Niemann) | Binary |
| 92.321 | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2024) | Binary |
| 92.165 | Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 92.075 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota) | Binary |
| 91.714 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Ian Nepomniachtchi) | Binary |
| 91.670 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Fabiano Caruana) | Binary |
| 91.621 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu) | Binary |
| 91.573 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 91.532 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 91.067 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace) | Binary |
| 90.700 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
| 90.670 | Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| 90.001 | Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 89.977 | When will the CDC eliminate quarantine restrictions for close contacts of COVID-19 cases? | Continuous |
| 89.754 | What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 89.686 | When will VDH’s frequency of COVID-19 case reporting switch to weekly or less? | Continuous |
| 89.608 | Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023? | Binary |
| 89.340 | Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023? | Binary |
| 89.319 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nijat Abasov) | Binary |
| 89.231 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Microsoft) | Binary |
| 89.199 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Sam Altman) | Binary |
| 89.121 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 89.004 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Sam Altman against OpenAI) | Binary |
| 88.821 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 88.421 | Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025? | Binary |
| 88.365 | Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023? | Binary |
| 88.284 | Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU? | Binary |
| 88.211 | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 88.194 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 88.098 | When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally? | Continuous |
| 87.851 | What will be the lowest US unemployment rate in 2022? | Continuous |
| 87.311 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
| 87.044 | Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination? (Yes) → Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? | Binary |
| 86.997 | Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 86.928 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Magnus Carlsen) | Binary |
| 86.656 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 86.373 | Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 86.319 | What will be the British male life expectancy at birth in 2021 according to the UK Office of National Statistics? | Continuous |
| 86.227 | Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022? | Binary |
| 86.112 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake) | Binary |
| 85.518 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 85.420 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 85.420 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
| 85.388 | Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025? | Binary |
| 85.287 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 85.209 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
| 85.116 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Burnley) | Continuous |
| 84.827 | Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 84.770 | Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 84.741 | Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 84.655 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Luton Town) | Continuous |
| 84.586 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
| 84.227 | What will be the total number of air incursions into the ADIZ between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 84.148 | Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 84.060 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 83.992 | Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025? | Binary |
| 83.967 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (State Senate Majority Leader Teresa Ruiz (D)) | Binary |
| 83.786 | How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024? | Continuous |
| 83.743 | Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 83.481 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds) | Binary |
| 82.775 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 82.691 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Indiana Pacers) | Binary |
| 82.589 | When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party? | Continuous |
| 82.577 | Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025? | Binary |
| 82.367 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Dallas Mavericks) | Binary |
| 82.045 | Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 81.743 | Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont? | Binary |
| 81.664 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 81.165 | Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 80.988 | How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 80.648 | 5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 80.458 | What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022? | Continuous |
| 80.308 | How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022? | Continuous |
| 80.234 | In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results? | Binary |
| 79.946 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vladimir Fedoseev) | Binary |
| 79.897 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Maxime Vachier-Lagrave) | Binary |
| 79.897 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda) | Binary |
| 79.852 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa) | Binary |
| 79.852 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nihal Sarin) | Binary |
| 79.789 | Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023? | Binary |
| 79.706 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 79.538 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vincent Keymer) | Binary |
| 79.528 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Sam Sevian) | Binary |
| 79.495 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexandr Predke) | Binary |
| 79.349 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Levon Aronian) | Binary |
| 79.332 | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 79.262 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
| 78.661 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hikaru Nakamura) | Binary |
| 78.439 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Vacant) | Binary |
| 78.322 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vidit Gujrathi) | Binary |
| 78.067 | Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| 78.045 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (New York Knicks) | Binary |
| 77.980 | Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023? | Binary |
| 77.685 | Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025? | Binary |
| 77.479 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia) | Binary |
| 77.419 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Oklahoma City Thunder) | Binary |
| 76.788 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Brentford) | Continuous |
| 76.635 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Cleveland Cavaliers) | Binary |
| 76.572 | Will 2022 be the hottest year on record? | Binary |
| 75.710 | What will be the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 75.674 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
| 75.623 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election? | Binary |
| 75.585 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Minnesota Timberwolves) | Binary |
| 75.422 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Arsenal) | Continuous |
| 75.368 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Everton) | Continuous |
| 75.012 | Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
| 74.737 | What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US, in billions USD, in 2022? | Continuous |
| 74.723 | When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0? | Continuous |
| 74.702 | Will Tether collapse before 2025? | Binary |
| 73.790 | When will the UK hold its next general election? | Continuous |
| 73.668 | What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive? | Continuous |
| 72.869 | Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025? | Binary |
| 72.812 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (New Orleans Pelicans) | Binary |
| 72.471 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 72.319 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
| 72.319 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
| 72.304 | Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session?? | Binary |
| 72.299 | Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2023? | Binary |
| 72.086 | What will be the average unemployment in the US from January 2022 to December 2024? | Continuous |
| 72.085 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
| 71.930 | What will be the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 71.921 | Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022? | Binary |
| 71.748 | Trump Removed or Blocked From Primary Ballot? (No) → 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 71.512 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Orlando Magic) | Binary |
| 71.496 | What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 71.345 | What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022? | Continuous |
| 71.221 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 71.203 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Manchester City) | Continuous |
| 71.179 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Leinier Domínguez Pérez) | Binary |
| 71.109 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Parham Maghsoodloo) | Binary |
| 70.915 | What will be the US Federal Funds Rate on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 70.883 | Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election? | Binary |
| 70.673 | Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024? | Binary |
| 70.412 | How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 70.151 | How many of Virginia's 133 communities will be experiencing moderate or higher levels of community transmission as of 7 March 2022? | Continuous |
| 69.962 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers) | Continuous |
| 69.637 | Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023? | Binary |
| 69.612 | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 69.591 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Liverpool) | Continuous |
| 69.260 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Senator Bob Menendez (D)) | Binary |
| 69.250 | When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur? | Continuous |
| 68.786 | Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024? | Binary |
| 68.634 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 68.491 | Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam? | Binary |
| 68.400 | What will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022? | Continuous |
| 68.306 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Egypt-Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 68.271 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Miami Heat) | Binary |
| 68.013 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Bournemouth) | Continuous |
| 67.978 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (June-24) | Continuous |
| 67.975 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Ukraine-Morocco) | Binary |
| 67.829 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Chicago Bulls) | Binary |
| 67.447 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| 67.247 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Sacremento Kings) | Binary |
| 67.229 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 67.163 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Sheffield United) | Continuous |
| 67.092 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas) | Binary |
| 66.769 | How many weeks will Virginia experience “widespread” influenza activity during the 2021-2022 flu season? | Continuous |
| 66.630 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 66.602 | Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? | Binary |
| 66.527 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 66.477 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
| 66.476 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 66.364 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 66.311 | Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025? | Binary |
| 66.269 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Atlanta Hawks) | Binary |
| 66.037 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023? | Binary |
| 66.024 | Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020? | Binary |
| 65.934 | Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 65.831 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst) | Binary |
| 65.643 | Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta? | Binary |
| 65.562 | Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 65.460 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 65.417 | Will any state hold a caucus instead of a primary for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2024? | Binary |
| 65.302 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 65.090 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Borussia Dortmund) | Binary |
| 64.995 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Andre Esipenko) | Binary |
| 64.944 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Houston Rockets) | Binary |
| 64.924 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire) | Binary |
| 64.611 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov) | Binary |
| 64.232 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
| 63.706 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 63.607 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Brooklyn Nets) | Binary |
| 63.507 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (NJ First Lady Tammy Murphy (D)) | Binary |
| 63.468 | How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 63.177 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 63.050 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Arjun Erigaisi) | Binary |
| 62.956 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik) | Binary |
| 62.659 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Morocco) | Binary |
| 62.637 | What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022? | Continuous |
| 62.589 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 62.017 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 61.967 | Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025? | Binary |
| 61.566 | When will US office workplace occupancy reach >50% of pre-pandemic levels? | Continuous |
| 61.507 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 60.803 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
| 60.800 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | Binary |
| 60.549 | What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (July 2024) | Continuous |
| 60.382 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Utah Jazz) | Binary |
| 59.918 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Anish Giri) | Binary |
| 59.887 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (PSV) | Binary |
| 59.539 | Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025? | Binary |
| 59.362 | What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 59.322 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Porto) | Binary |
| 59.197 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Toronto Raptors) | Binary |
| 59.085 | How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 58.948 | Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 58.700 | Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 58.566 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Amin Tabatabaei) | Binary |
| 58.566 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Richard Rapport) | Binary |
| 58.480 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Charlotte Hornets) | Binary |
| 58.066 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 57.782 | By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 57.722 | Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 57.360 | Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025? | Binary |
| 56.855 | When will Julian Assange be extradited to the US? | Continuous |
| 56.626 | What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022? | Continuous |
| 56.464 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 56.417 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Portland Trail Blazers) | Binary |
| 56.322 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska) | Binary |
| 56.277 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Memphis Grizzlies) | Binary |
| 56.094 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lazio) | Binary |
| 55.583 | Will Johnathan Davis be re-elected at the 2024 ACT election? | Binary |
| 55.468 | Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 55.389 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024) | Binary |
| 55.333 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (March 31, 2024) | Continuous |
| 55.311 | Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022? | Binary |
| 55.188 | Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 55.185 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Gukesh Dommaraju) | Binary |
| 54.627 | Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta? | Binary |
| 54.485 | Will Meta's Horizon Worlds report more than 500,000 active users for any month of 2023? | Binary |
| 54.413 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (RB Leipzig) | Binary |
| 54.259 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 54.212 | By what percentage will the total US yearly retail sales of plant-based meat in 2022 grow compared to 2020? | Continuous |
| 54.045 | What will be the average monthly rate of US workforce resignations in 2022? | Continuous |
| 53.726 | Will Spain announce a snap general election before March 2024? | Binary |
| 53.085 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Washington Wizards) | Binary |
| 52.984 | Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022? | Binary |
| 52.878 | Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022? | Binary |
| 52.679 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Detroit Pistons) | Binary |
| 52.135 | When will 100M doses of Moderna's Omicron-specific booster candidate or multi-valent booster candidates be distributed? | Continuous |
| 52.117 | Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 51.880 | Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 51.832 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (San Antonio Spurs) | Binary |
| 51.644 | By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 51.608 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Phoenix Suns) | Binary |
| 51.416 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 51.369 | Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 51.198 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Copenhagen) | Binary |
| 51.185 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1) | Binary |
| 50.895 | How many gold medals will the United States win at the 2022 International Math Olympiad? | Continuous |
| 50.588 | What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 50.493 | Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 50.130 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement? | Binary |
| 50.061 | What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID cases in the US between January 1, 2022 to April 1, 2022? | Continuous |
| 49.811 | Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025? | Binary |
| 49.345 | How many State of AI Report 2021 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2022 report? | Continuous |
| 49.126 | On what date will the U.S. CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC)? | Continuous |
| 49.034 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024? | Binary |
| 48.947 | Will Oil Exports account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024? | Binary |
| 48.888 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Chicago Bears) | Binary |
| 48.836 | Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 48.774 | Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates? | Binary |
| 48.755 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 48.676 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2) | Binary |
| 48.649 | Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 48.458 | Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 48.415 | By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 48.331 | Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 48.320 | What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI? | Continuous |
| 48.290 | Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022? | Binary |
| 48.261 | Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 47.916 | What will Rivian's market cap be at the close of trading on 20 April 2022? | Continuous |
| 47.916 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Wesley So) | Binary |
| 47.897 | What will be the annual headline CPI inflation in the United States in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 47.647 | Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment? | Binary |
| 47.568 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson) | Binary |
| 47.335 | When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022? | Continuous |
| 47.172 | How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024? | Continuous |
| 47.096 | By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty? | Binary |
| 47.047 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Sociedad) | Binary |
| 46.595 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 46.568 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt) | Binary |
| 46.566 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 46.480 | When will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022? | Continuous |
| 46.423 | Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads? | Binary |
| 46.406 | Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season? | Binary |
| 46.165 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Donald Trump) | Continuous |
| 46.078 | What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 46.064 | Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31? | Binary |
| 45.954 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alireza Firouzja) | Binary |
| 45.896 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio) | Binary |
| 45.885 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 45.740 | How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 45.733 | What percent of the world population will use the internet in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 45.616 | How much oil will Russia produce (in barrels per day) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 45.543 | Will the US CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before August 1, 2022? | Binary |
| 45.450 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Terry Gou (Independent)) | Binary |
| 45.443 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Ko Wen-je (TPP)) | Binary |
| 45.281 | Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022? | Binary |
| 45.220 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 45.080 | What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Jan-24) | Continuous |
| 44.946 | Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025? | Binary |
| 44.838 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (San Francisco 49ers) | Binary |
| 44.484 | Will 2022 be warmer than 2021? | Binary |
| 44.382 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
| 44.253 | Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023? | Binary |
| 44.252 | When will Australia reach its 80% (of 16+ population) Covid-19 vaccination target? | Continuous |
| 44.123 | What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (April 2024) | Continuous |
| 44.055 | How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 43.801 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Denver Broncos) | Binary |
| 43.697 | Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023? | Binary |
| 43.521 | What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID deaths in the US before 2022 April 1? | Continuous |
| 43.500 | What will the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth be in the G7 countries in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 43.433 | Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025? | Binary |
| 43.294 | Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 43.284 | When will the Republican presidential nominee next win the state of Massachusetts in a US Presidential Election? (2024) | Binary |
| 42.936 | By 2023, what fraction of total content published on the Effective Altruism Wiki will have been written by volunteer contributors? | Continuous |
| 42.908 | By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 42.500 | What will the price of oil be for December 2022? | Continuous |
| 42.189 | How many new building permits will be authorized in the SF metro area in 2022? | Continuous |
| 41.609 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Inter Milan) | Binary |
| 41.599 | What will the UK consumer price inflation rate for April 2024 be? | Continuous |
| 41.491 | What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022? | Continuous |
| 41.419 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan) | Binary |
| 41.035 | What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Dec-23) | Continuous |
| 40.994 | What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (October 2024) | Continuous |
| 40.925 | Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024? | Binary |
| 40.892 | What will be the percent SOL assessment pass rate in math for Virginian third graders in the 2021-2022? | Continuous |
| 40.821 | Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025? | Binary |
| 40.703 | When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA? | Continuous |
| 40.439 | How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue? | Continuous |
| 40.101 | When will Virginia's statewide mask mandate for K-12 schools be rescinded? | Continuous |
| 40.010 | By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis? | Binary |
| 39.958 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 39.905 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 39.806 | How many eviction cases will be filed in Virginia in Q4 2021? | Continuous |
| 39.786 | What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 39.350 | What will be the annual headline CPI inflation in the United States in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 39.176 | Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled? | Binary |
| 39.022 | Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023? | Binary |
| 38.996 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Arizona Cardinals) | Binary |
| 38.809 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Tennessee Titans) | Binary |
| 38.652 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan) | Binary |
| 38.495 | Will the Republican Party retain California's 20th District in the 2024 special election? | Binary |
| 38.484 | What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 38.443 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 38.380 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Washington Commanders) | Binary |
| 38.239 | Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022? | Binary |
| 38.176 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey) | Binary |
| 38.123 | Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023? | Binary |
| 38.022 | Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024? | Binary |
| 37.846 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado) | Binary |
| 37.689 | What percentage of US children under 5-years-old will have at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 37.467 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Kansas City Chiefs) | Binary |
| 37.368 | Will an additional state join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 37.254 | What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 36.917 | When will 50,000 Chevy Bolt EV and Chevy Bolt EUV vehicles have completed repairs for the recall relating to risk of battery fire? | Continuous |
| 36.839 | How many emergency department overdose visits will there be in Q1 2022 in Virginia? | Continuous |
| 36.709 | What will Lebanon's Fragile States Index score be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 36.600 | When will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before? (Continued) | Continuous |
| 36.344 | Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024? | Binary |
| 36.239 | When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable cases occur? | Continuous |
| 36.147 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 35.562 | Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 34.435 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (June 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 34.373 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 34.160 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New York Giants) | Binary |
| 33.798 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New England Patriots) | Binary |
| 33.622 | Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)? | Binary |
| 32.974 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (United States) | Binary |
| 32.886 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Vietnam) | Binary |
| 32.878 | Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session? | Binary |
| 32.523 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Brazil) | Binary |
| 32.358 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Thailand) | Binary |
| 32.224 | Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022? | Binary |
| 31.821 | When will the next German government be formed? | Continuous |
| 31.373 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 31.012 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Russia) | Binary |
| 30.452 | Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023? | Binary |
| 30.092 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Baltimore Ravens) | Binary |
| 30.090 | What will be the weekly peak percent of medical visits that are for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season? | Continuous |
| 29.584 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Detroit Lions) | Binary |
| 29.416 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Carolina Panthers) | Binary |
| 29.358 | Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (United States) | Binary |
| 29.346 | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (R. Sunak (Tories)) | Binary |
| 28.878 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
| 28.351 | What will be the UK's annual inflation rate in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 27.765 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI investors against OpenAI board) | Binary |
| 27.765 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Government antitrust against Microsoft) | Binary |
| 27.381 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Las Vegas Raiders) | Binary |
| 27.167 | By 2023, what fraction of total traffic to the Effective Altruism Forum will be traffic to the Effective Altruism Wiki? | Continuous |
| 26.854 | How much will a pound of fresh beef cost in cents in January 2023? | Continuous |
| 26.625 | By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? | Binary |
| 26.315 | Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates? | Binary |
| 26.215 | When will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space? | Continuous |
| 25.585 | Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
| 25.513 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 25.414 | Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 25.123 | When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.? | Continuous |
| 25.103 | What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500? | Continuous |
| 24.864 | When will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022? | Continuous |
| 24.765 | What will be the US Consumer Sentiment for May 2024? | Continuous |
| 24.505 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (September 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 24.119 | Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025? | Binary |
| 23.500 | What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (February 2024) | Continuous |
| 23.375 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York) | Binary |
| 23.032 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina) | Binary |
| 23.026 | What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022? | Continuous |
| 22.903 | Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024? | Binary |
| 22.508 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Atlanta Falcons) | Binary |
| 22.369 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Bankman-Fried) | Binary |
| 22.149 | Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models? | Binary |
| 22.115 | What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants? | Continuous |
| 22.076 | Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024? | Binary |
| 22.001 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 21.845 | What will be the US FY 2024 budget (in $ millions) for the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA)? | Continuous |
| 21.818 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 21.718 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Rams) | Binary |
| 21.662 | Will a university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again? | Binary |
| 21.585 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New Orleans Saints) | Binary |
| 21.281 | Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024? | Binary |
| 21.246 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate & House) | Binary |
| 20.486 | Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023? | Binary |
| 20.375 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate, Dem House) | Binary |
| 20.286 | Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? | Binary |
| 20.057 | Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023? | Binary |
| 20.023 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Seattle Seahawks) | Binary |
| 19.997 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Chargers) | Binary |
| 19.757 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Cincinnati Bengals) | Binary |
| 19.754 | What will real GDP growth be in the United States in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 18.821 | What will be the minimum Antartic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 18.704 | What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating? | Continuous |
| 18.625 | How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (September 2024) | Continuous |
| 18.188 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New York Jets) | Binary |
| 17.912 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
| 17.801 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD)) | Binary |
| 17.753 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Shakhtar Donetsk) | Binary |
| 17.626 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide)) | Binary |
| 17.539 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2025? | Binary |
| 17.373 | Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 17.291 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Galatasaray) | Binary |
| 17.281 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Braga) | Binary |
| 17.013 | Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023? | Binary |
| 16.980 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023? | Binary |
| 16.937 | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023) | Binary |
| 16.538 | What will be the peak Covid-19 Hospitalization rate (new admissions per week per million) in the US in these years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 16.000 | By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 15.964 | How many deaths from terrorism in 2020? | Continuous |
| 15.719 | Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections? | Binary |
| 15.601 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Pittsburgh Steelers) | Binary |
| 15.554 | What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area? | Continuous |
| 14.944 | How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 14.943 | Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023? | Binary |
| 14.802 | How much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021? | Continuous |
| 13.893 | What will the total worldwide box office gross be for Avatar 2? | Continuous |
| 13.681 | What will the number of active volcanos be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 12.965 | What will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022? | Continuous |
| 12.806 | Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024? | Binary |
| 12.780 | What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 12.736 | Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024? | Binary |
| 12.434 | How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| 12.215 | How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in April 2022? | Continuous |
| 11.807 | What place will the United States get at the 2022 International Mathematical Olympiad? | Continuous |
| 11.544 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 11.467 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester United) | Binary |
| 11.329 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lens) | Binary |
| 10.943 | When will the next UK general election take place? | Continuous |
| 10.867 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Crvena Zvezda) | Binary |
| 10.867 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Feyenoord) | Binary |
| 10.867 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Celtic) | Binary |
| 10.742 | What will Great Britain's maximum solar power capacity (MW) be for October 2024? | Continuous |
| 10.656 | Will Labour have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election? | Binary |
| 10.595 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power) | Binary |
| 10.595 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government) | Binary |
| 10.595 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah) | Binary |
| 10.576 | How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported in the US in 2022? | Continuous |
| 10.519 | When will New Zealand reopen for quarantine-free international travel? | Continuous |
| 10.457 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas) | Binary |
| 10.416 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel) | Binary |
| 10.368 | What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 10.352 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested) | Binary |
| 10.081 | Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections? | Binary |
| 10.029 | What is the %reduction in the secondary transmission of Delta from infected vaccinated individuals compared to infected unvaccinated individuals, according to the mean of the first 3 relevant studies? | Continuous |
| 9.891 | Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams? | Binary |
| 9.839 | Will UK inflation as expressed by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) exceed 4% before 31 December 2021? | Binary |
| 9.358 | What will be The Economist's estimated global excess deaths due to COVID-19 on January 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 9.084 | Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023? | Binary |
| 8.949 | How many migrants will die in 2022 trying to cross the Mediterranean? | Continuous |
| 8.940 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 8.827 | How many positive influenza specimens will be detected by the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System in the peak week for the Northern Hemisphere over the 2021-2022 flu season? | Continuous |
| 8.799 | Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023? | Binary |
| 8.380 | What will annual inflation be in the eurozone in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 8.225 | Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
| 8.122 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 8.051 | What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Sep-24) | Continuous |
| 7.970 | When will the FDA authorize an oral antiviral treatment for SARS-CoV-2? | Continuous |
| 7.960 | Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022? | Binary |
| 7.359 | Will the Pandemic and All Hazards Preparedness Act (PAHPA) be reauthorized for more than 4 years before April 1st, 2024, and December 31st, 2024? (2024 Dec 31) | Binary |
| 7.341 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate, Rep House) | Binary |
| 7.291 | Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022? | Binary |
| 6.857 | When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers? | Continuous |
| 6.681 | When will the UK Labour Party next maintain a 10-point polling lead for a month? | Continuous |
| 6.596 | What will China’s GDP be in 2023? | Continuous |
| 6.588 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrats) | Continuous |
| 6.401 | Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (European Union) | Binary |
| 6.120 | What will be the number of conflicts with critical impacts on U.S. interests by 2023? | Continuous |
| 6.119 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative) | Continuous |
| 5.948 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (December 31, 2024) | Continuous |
| 5.936 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 5.686 | Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025? | Binary |
| 5.640 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Conservative and Unionist Party) | Continuous |
| 5.610 | Will the "Moon Cube" be shown to be non-natural before 2023? | Binary |
| 5.506 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Sevilla) | Binary |
| 5.467 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati) | Binary |
| 5.467 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever) | Binary |
| 5.467 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman) | Binary |
| 5.467 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt) | Binary |
| 5.467 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella) | Binary |
| 5.467 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy) | Binary |
| 5.467 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Emmett Shear) | Binary |
| 5.430 | Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025? | Binary |
| 5.239 | When will Virginia's 6-foot distancing requirement for food and beverage establishments be lifted? | Continuous |
| 5.207 | What will be the ratio of 2022 to 2021 average global interest in vertical farming? | Continuous |
| 5.187 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Futbol Club Barcelona) | Binary |
| 5.187 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Atlético Newell's Old Boys) | Binary |
| 5.187 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Manchester City Football Club) | Binary |
| 5.187 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Al-Hilal Saudi Football Club) | Binary |
| 5.157 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Internacional de Fútbol Miami) | Binary |
| 4.766 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party) | Continuous |
| 4.687 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Minnesota Vikings) | Binary |
| 4.550 | In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election? | Binary |
| 4.277 | By 2023, how many words of content will have been published on the Effective Altruism Wiki? | Continuous |
| 4.116 | What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021? | Continuous |
| 4.052 | When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100? | Continuous |
| 3.926 | What will be the annual inflation in Latvia in 2022? | Continuous |
| 3.876 | When will total nonfarm employees in Virginia exceed 4 million? | Continuous |
| 3.862 | How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022? | Continuous |
| 3.842 | Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (Israel) | Binary |
| 3.819 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023? | Binary |
| 3.765 | Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (China) | Binary |
| 3.617 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour) | Continuous |
| 3.363 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (SDLP) | Continuous |
| 3.345 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Alliance) | Continuous |
| 3.340 | Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023? | Binary |
| 2.873 | Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023? | Binary |
| 2.807 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Plaid Cymru) | Continuous |
| 2.743 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Sinn Féin) | Continuous |
| 2.651 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (New Glenn) | Continuous |
| 2.628 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Green Party of England and Wales) | Continuous |
| 2.608 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Nishad Singh) | Binary |
| 2.592 | When will OpenAI release an AI that significantly improves on GPT-4's factual accuracy? | Continuous |
| 2.558 | How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks from September 17, 2021 to September 17, 2022? | Continuous |
| 2.491 | Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025? | Binary |
| 2.445 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Manchester United) | Continuous |
| 2.428 | How many flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, make in its lifetime? | Continuous |
| 2.424 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3) | Binary |
| 2.420 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (DUP) | Continuous |
| 2.388 | What will be the number of conflicts with significant impacts on U.S. interests by 2023? | Continuous |
| 2.242 | How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 1.842 | Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person before 2023? | Binary |
| 1.551 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (RB Salzburg) | Binary |
| 1.516 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Benfica) | Binary |
| 1.508 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Bayern Munich) | Binary |
| 1.427 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (China) | Binary |
| 1.412 | Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025? | Binary |
| 1.224 | Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025? | Binary |
| 1.219 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Nikki Haley) | Continuous |
| 1.118 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Antwerp) | Binary |
| 1.118 | When will Apple announce the first computer that uses the second generation of their M-series processor (likely to be named the M2)? | Continuous |
| 1.090 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Young Boys) | Binary |
| 1.004 | When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users? | Continuous |
| 0.950 | Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026? | Binary |
| 0.870 | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (2: Candidacy granted) | Continuous |
| 0.839 | When will the order providing for Title 42 expulsions no longer be in effect in the United States? | Continuous |
| 0.589 | Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11? | Binary |
| 0.423 | Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022? | Binary |
| 0.422 | How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023? | Continuous |
| 0.312 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Labour Party) | Continuous |
| 0.259 | When will Oleksii Reznikov cease to hold the office of the Minister of Defence of Ukraine? | Continuous |
| 0.108 | Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024? | Binary |
| 0.089 | When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel? | Continuous |
| 0.078 | What will the total amount of worldwide venture capital funding in quantum computing be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 0.030 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Paris Saint-Germain) | Binary |
| 0.019 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Reform UK) | Continuous |
| -0.104 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Madrid) | Binary |
| -0.314 | Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years? | Binary |
| -1.243 | What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose as of 4 May 2022? | Continuous |
| -1.296 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| -1.610 | Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023? | Binary |
| -1.845 | Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023? | Binary |
| -1.965 | Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023? | Binary |
| -2.113 | Will Elon Musk face US federal criminal charges or an SEC civil complaint before 2026? | Binary |
| -2.383 | [short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022? | Binary |
| -2.388 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat) | Continuous |
| -2.438 | What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2022? | Continuous |
| -3.126 | Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election? | Binary |
| -3.395 | How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported globally in 2022? | Continuous |
| -4.296 | If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen? | Continuous |
| -4.487 | When will the Mars helicopter Ingenuity stop making successful flights for 6 months? | Continuous |
| -4.884 | What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 21st of January, 2022? | Continuous |
| -5.194 | Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022? | Binary |
| -5.257 | How many deaths will be caused by terrorism globally in 2021? | Continuous |
| -5.465 | By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| -6.904 | Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025? | Binary |
| -6.969 | Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match? | Binary |
| -7.173 | Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| -8.494 | When will Japan reopen for quarantine-free international tourism? | Continuous |
| -10.456 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House) | Binary |
| -10.497 | Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections? | Binary |
| -10.737 | What will US inflation be in 2022? | Continuous |
| -10.909 | How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| -10.973 | BTC Worth Over 100k USD by 2025? (Yes) → Federal Funds Target Range Upper Limit (December 31, 2024) | Continuous |
| -12.019 | Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| -12.453 | Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics? | Binary |
| -12.951 | When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022? | Continuous |
| -15.641 | Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024? | Binary |
| -17.053 | If Elizabeth Holmes is convicted in Theranos fraud trial, how long will her sentence be? | Continuous |
| -17.076 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Jacksonville Jaguars) | Binary |
| -18.093 | Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| -18.278 | Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024? | Binary |
| -18.407 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia) | Binary |
| -21.128 | Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform? | Binary |
| -22.064 | What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022? | Continuous |
| -23.016 | How many OpenAI or Anthropic model versions will be released between December 1, 2023 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| -23.270 | Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| -23.957 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| -24.473 | Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024? | Binary |
| -24.663 | In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received? | Binary |
| -27.489 | What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -27.721 | Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025? | Binary |
| -29.932 | What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022? | Continuous |
| -31.116 | How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022? | Continuous |
| -31.681 | By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be "alive"? | Binary |
| -33.164 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Buffalo Bills) | Binary |
| -34.205 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Miami Dolphins) | Binary |
| -34.310 | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (4: Negotiations approved) | Continuous |
| -37.884 | Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022? | Binary |
| -39.630 | Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| -40.981 | Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024? | Binary |
| -41.708 | Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| -41.765 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada) | Binary |
| -42.318 | How many Chinese institutions of higher education will get approved for an artificial intelligence undergraduate program in 2023? | Continuous |
| -49.932 | If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| -50.544 | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (5: Negotiations initiated) | Continuous |
| -53.767 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | Binary |
| -55.193 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| -58.833 | Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023? | Binary |
| -61.744 | When will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments? | Continuous |
| -69.017 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -70.424 | Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023? | Binary |
| -71.421 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona) | Binary |
| -73.573 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
| -73.575 | When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths? | Continuous |
| -80.036 | Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024? | Binary |
| -80.263 | When will the pre-August 2022 peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia occur? | Continuous |
| -90.163 | When will the U.S. CDC recommend that all fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose? | Continuous |
| -94.810 | What percentage of new COVID-19 deaths that occur before 1 August 2022 will be in long-term care facilities? | Continuous |
| -96.610 | Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022? | Binary |
| -101.285 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Green Bay Packers) | Binary |
| -110.324 | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (3: Negotiations recommended) | Continuous |
| -116.440 | Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023? | Binary |
| -125.149 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Houston Texans) | Binary |
| -126.646 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
| -130.745 | What will be the maximum Antartic sea ice extent in these years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -137.364 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party) | Continuous |
| -144.432 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| -151.123 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan) | Binary |
| -175.284 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Philadelphia Eagles) | Binary |
| -179.911 | What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months? | Continuous |
| -182.144 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| -248.724 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| -276.875 | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |