Sergio

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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4.642k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
97.740	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
97.079	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
96.928	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
95.463	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
93.023	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
92.686	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
91.900	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
88.587	How many papers published in 2023 will discuss metagenomic sequencing?	Continuous
86.995	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
83.032	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
81.552	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
81.438	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
79.686	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
79.575	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
79.522	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
78.780	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
78.643	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
78.320	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
75.115	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
74.889	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
73.673	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
73.381	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
73.153	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
72.939	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
72.339	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
71.971	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023?	Binary
71.347	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
70.720	How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?	Continuous
69.148	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
68.227	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
66.827	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
66.543	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
66.297	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
65.357	Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024?	Binary
65.323	What will Asana's market cap be on December 1, 2023?	Continuous
63.274	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
63.203	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
63.188	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
61.530	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
61.498	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
61.327	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
60.598	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
60.550	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
58.807	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
56.816	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
55.201	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
52.947	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
49.284	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
48.516	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (January 28)	Continuous
48.464	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (January 14)	Continuous
48.298	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
47.818	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
47.560	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
46.825	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (January 28)	Continuous
46.109	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
44.193	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (January 14)	Continuous
44.180	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
44.135	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
43.765	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
43.642	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (February 11)	Continuous
43.540	How many FLOPS will be used to train GPT-4 (if it is released)?	Continuous
42.002	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
41.617	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
40.216	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (February 11)	Continuous
38.427	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
37.646	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
36.477	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (February 11)	Continuous
35.952	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
35.325	Will a new Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy be created if the PREVENT Pandemics Act is made law?	Binary
34.848	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (January 28)	Continuous
33.594	Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
33.108	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
33.052	Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?	Binary
32.464	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (February 11)	Continuous
32.079	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
30.614	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
30.017	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (February 11)	Continuous
29.791	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (January 14)	Continuous
29.085	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
28.240	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (February 11)	Continuous
27.749	What will be state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2023)	Continuous
27.432	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
26.939	What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2023)	Continuous
26.907	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
26.872	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (January 14)	Continuous
26.584	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (January 28)	Continuous
25.682	Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023?	Binary
24.809	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
24.748	What will be the US 2023 budget (in USD) for the CDC's new Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics?	Continuous
24.717	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
23.179	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
21.656	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
21.220	In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?	Binary
19.837	Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Haiti)	Continuous
18.165	In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?	Binary
17.697	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
15.959	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (January 28)	Continuous
15.600	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Ghana)	Binary
14.136	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
11.927	Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
10.818	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (January 28)	Continuous
9.254	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
9.123	When will GPT-4 be announced?	Continuous
8.041	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
7.007	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (January 14)	Continuous
4.717	Will the US “Rewards for Justice” program pay the $10M reward offered for information on the interference in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
4.361	Will the US PREVENT Pandemics Act be made into law before February 2023?	Binary
3.814	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
3.506	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (March 1, 2023)	Binary
2.401	Will Chase Bank send a notice to customers about updates to its security protocols, referencing the threat of social engineering attacks that can be attributed to LLMs, before 2024?	Binary
1.741	Will a decision be made to start and fund a dedicated and systematic science and technology review process at the 2022 BWC Review Conference?	Binary
1.395	Will Anthropic launch a Large Language Model at the following levels of access before Sept 30, 2023? (Public)	Binary
-0.421	Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-1.566	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
-1.660	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Haiti)	Binary
-3.974	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
-5.278	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (January 14)	Continuous
-8.329	What will be the total venture capital funding (in USD) for Anthropic, Adept, Character, Inflection, Conjecture, Cohere, & Huggingface on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
-9.601	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
-11.254	What will be the U.S. FY 2023 budget (in $ millions) for the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA)?	Continuous
-15.273	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
-25.099	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
-26.937	Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
-29.117	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023)	Binary
-34.756	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
-45.960	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
-46.178	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-50.839	Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?	Binary
-88.141	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
-95.858	In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?	Binary
-143.815	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary