| 205.296 | How many additional indictments will have been filed against Donald Trump on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 167.030 | What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 151.328 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Combined) | Continuous |
| 148.095 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Flu) | Continuous |
| 146.324 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (COVID-19) | Continuous |
| 146.179 | How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 145.952 | How much money will the FTX Foundation distribute in 2023? | Continuous |
| 145.481 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (RSV) | Continuous |
| 143.217 | How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| 139.568 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (COVID-19) | Continuous |
| 138.971 | When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases fall below 1015? | Continuous |
| 134.428 | Respiratory "Tripledemic" (4 Weeks) 2023-24? (Yes) → Peak Respiratory Magnitudes 2023-2024? (Combined) | Continuous |
| 132.507 | What will Virginia's percent unemployment rate be in April 2022? | Continuous |
| 130.895 | What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022? | Continuous |
| 124.106 | How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 122.932 | When will the percentage of Virginians who have received a booster dose exceed 50%? | Continuous |
| 120.109 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Combined) | Continuous |
| 117.993 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Pennsylvania) | Continuous |
| 117.291 | How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024? | Continuous |
| 117.108 | COVID VOC or Worse Before March 1, 2024? (No) → Peak Respiratory Magnitudes 2023-2024? (COVID-19) | Continuous |
| 116.592 | When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally? | Continuous |
| 116.340 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Illinois) | Continuous |
| 115.321 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Florida) | Continuous |
| 114.036 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Florida for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 112.863 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Colorado for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 112.171 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
California for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 111.959 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Pennsylvania for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 111.955 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (California) | Continuous |
| 111.791 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
New York for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 111.659 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Colorado) | Continuous |
| 111.549 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Texas) | Continuous |
| 111.151 | When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable cases occur? | Continuous |
| 110.980 | When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 hospitalizations fall below 49? | Continuous |
| 110.826 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Massachusetts) | Continuous |
| 110.179 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (New York) | Continuous |
| 106.536 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Washington) | Continuous |
| 106.472 | When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022? | Continuous |
| 105.054 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Illinois for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 104.296 | When will total nonfarm employees in Virginia exceed 4 million? | Continuous |
| 101.098 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Texas for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 99.159 | Room-temp Superconductor Replicated by 2025 (No) → Commercial Room-Temp Superconductor by 2025? | Binary |
| 98.774 | Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025? | Binary |
| 98.519 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Massachusetts for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 98.499 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Flu) | Continuous |
| 97.881 | Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 97.651 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 97.604 | Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 97.590 | Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 97.383 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 96.901 | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 96.540 | Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023? | Binary |
| 96.003 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 95.979 | Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (European Union) | Binary |
| 95.922 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 95.820 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
| 95.212 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 95.037 | Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 95.024 | Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 94.600 | Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024? | Binary |
| 94.559 | When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur? | Continuous |
| 93.972 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 93.806 | Musk Chairman Of Twitter in 2024? (Yes) → Twitter Public Company in May 2024? | Binary |
| 93.737 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 93.675 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 93.624 | What percent of US adults will report having received an updated COVID booster vaccine for the 2023-2024 season on the following dates? (March 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 93.497 | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
| 93.015 | Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 91.925 | Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 91.844 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| 91.067 | Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025? | Binary |
| 90.748 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
| 90.276 | What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022? | Continuous |
| 90.147 | How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? | Continuous |
| 89.924 | Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 89.694 | India Acts in Pakistan by 2024 Election? (No) → Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025? | Binary |
| 89.287 | Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 89.258 | By what percentage will the total US yearly retail sales of plant-based meat in 2022 grow compared to 2020? | Continuous |
| 89.209 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
| 89.173 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | Binary |
| 89.119 | Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023? | Binary |
| 87.644 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 87.262 | How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 87.142 | Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 86.742 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 86.619 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 85.812 | Will 2022 be the hottest year on record? | Binary |
| 85.784 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 85.694 | Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 85.623 | Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023? | Binary |
| 85.451 | Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 85.229 | Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 85.164 | Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 84.567 | Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 84.191 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 83.639 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Missouri for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 83.609 | How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022? | Continuous |
| 83.428 | What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 82.700 | Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022? | Binary |
| 82.229 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 82.002 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
| 81.984 | Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024? | Binary |
| 81.958 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 81.290 | LLM passes ARA before 2025? (No) → LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 80.626 | Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023? | Binary |
| 79.962 | How many weeks will Virginia experience “widespread” influenza activity during the 2021-2022 flu season? | Continuous |
| 79.827 | Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 79.631 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Washington for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 79.605 | Meaningful commitments from UK AI Summit? (No) → ChatGPT available in Europe on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 78.822 | Will the German value-added tax (VAT) of plant-based milks be reduced to be the same as cow's milk by end of 2024? | Binary |
| 78.816 | By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 78.627 | What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022? | Continuous |
| 78.339 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 77.555 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
| 77.265 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 76.721 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 76.661 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 76.439 | Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta? | Binary |
| 75.737 | What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022? | Continuous |
| 75.644 | Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023? | Binary |
| 75.626 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 75.417 | How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 75.329 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 75.231 | Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023? | Binary |
| 74.879 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 74.770 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 74.268 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 74.149 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 72.973 | Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person before 2023? | Binary |
| 72.385 | How many total arm sales to Taiwan will the US State Department approve between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 72.044 | What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14? | Continuous |
| 71.922 | How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 71.816 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 71.444 | Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 71.378 | What percent of children under 8 months of age will surveyed parents report having received nirsevimab on the following dates? (March 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 69.083 | When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022? | Continuous |
| 69.073 | Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020? | Binary |
| 69.023 | Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season? | Binary |
| 68.877 | What will be the total capacity (in GW) for all operational offshore windfarms in the UK on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 68.637 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 68.370 | Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 67.239 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023? | Binary |
| 66.888 | What will the UK consumer price inflation rate for April 2024 be? | Continuous |
| 66.764 | How much will a pound of fresh beef cost in cents in January 2023? | Continuous |
| 66.673 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024? | Binary |
| 66.228 | What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list? | Continuous |
| 64.274 | What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025? | Continuous |
| 64.216 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 63.177 | Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 62.596 | What will be the US labor force participation rate for the May 2024? | Continuous |
| 62.069 | What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 27, 2024) | Continuous |
| 61.695 | Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| 61.525 | Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 60.508 | What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 27, 2024) | Continuous |
| 60.249 | What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Feb-2023) | Continuous |
| 60.020 | What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024) | Continuous |
| 59.934 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 59.778 | How many eviction cases will be filed in Virginia in Q4 2021? | Continuous |
| 58.750 | What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 58.741 | What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 13, 2024) | Continuous |
| 58.137 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 27, 2024) | Continuous |
| 56.801 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 13, 2024) | Continuous |
| 56.465 | How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? | Continuous |
| 56.446 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, optional) | Binary |
| 56.277 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement? | Binary |
| 56.103 | Will a new highly-diamagnetic room-temperature material be found before 2025? | Binary |
| 54.577 | When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human? | Continuous |
| 54.230 | Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025? | Binary |
| 53.907 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (United States) | Binary |
| 52.788 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 52.505 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Vietnam) | Binary |
| 52.319 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 51.745 | Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023? | Binary |
| 51.429 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 51.274 | What will be the US FY 2024 budget (in $ millions) for the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA)? | Continuous |
| 51.198 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 50.418 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 50.163 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 49.993 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
| 49.988 | What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 13, 2024) | Continuous |
| 49.780 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 49.265 | What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024) | Continuous |
| 49.238 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
| 49.055 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Brazil) | Binary |
| 48.892 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 48.612 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 48.331 | Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025? | Binary |
| 48.094 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
| 47.929 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (China) | Binary |
| 47.888 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 47.394 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 47.049 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 46.949 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 46.814 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Missouri) | Continuous |
| 46.261 | When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0? | Continuous |
| 45.673 | What retail market share will plant-based milk make up of the total milk category in the US in 2022? | Continuous |
| 45.262 | What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024) | Continuous |
| 45.258 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 44.406 | What will be the Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature (in degrees Celsius) be for May 2024? | Continuous |
| 44.315 | What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022? | Continuous |
| 44.287 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Meta) | Binary |
| 43.740 | What will be the total number of air incursions into the ADIZ between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 43.714 | How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? | Continuous |
| 43.427 | Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022? | Binary |
| 43.241 | What will be the weekly peak percent of medical visits that are for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season? | Continuous |
| 42.758 | Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025? | Binary |
| 42.756 | Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023? | Binary |
| 42.448 | Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 42.123 | What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500? | Continuous |
| 41.640 | How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (February 2023) | Continuous |
| 41.593 | What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 13, 2024) | Continuous |
| 41.400 | What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14? | Continuous |
| 41.272 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Inflection) | Binary |
| 41.104 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 40.960 | What will annual CO2 emissions be in the United States (in tonnes) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 40.821 | Will an additional state join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 40.385 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024) | Continuous |
| 38.700 | How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023? | Continuous |
| 38.496 | What will the price of oil be for December 2022? | Continuous |
| 37.991 | How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? | Continuous |
| 37.828 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Washington for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 37.264 | Will the US CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before August 1, 2022? | Binary |
| 37.192 | What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022? | Continuous |
| 37.150 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (RSV) | Continuous |
| 37.106 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
| 36.690 | Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU? | Binary |
| 36.488 | Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 36.442 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 36.047 | What will be the percent SOL assessment pass rate in math for Virginian third graders in the 2021-2022? | Continuous |
| 35.979 | What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2022) | Continuous |
| 35.928 | Will the "Moon Cube" be shown to be non-natural before 2023? | Binary |
| 35.187 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Thailand) | Binary |
| 34.871 | When will the pre-August 2022 peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia occur? | Continuous |
| 34.277 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 33.757 | How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2022? | Continuous |
| 33.482 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (New Glenn) | Continuous |
| 33.433 | Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta? | Binary |
| 33.115 | What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 27, 2024) | Continuous |
| 32.408 | Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025? | Binary |
| 31.500 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023? | Binary |
| 31.144 | How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue (FY 2025) will come from the Chinese market? (Q2 (FY2025, ends Jul 2024)) | Continuous |
| 31.108 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Russia) | Binary |
| 30.975 | When will WHO recommend widespread use of a malaria vaccine that is >75% effective? | Continuous |
| 30.749 | How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? | Continuous |
| 30.726 | What will be the largest cultivated meat production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single facility by January 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 29.572 | What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models? | Continuous |
| 28.350 | What will be the US Federal Funds Rate on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 27.504 | How many OpenAI or Anthropic model versions will be released between December 1, 2023 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 27.000 | Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025? | Binary |
| 25.932 | How many level 2 or greater public charging stations will be available for light vehicles in the United States at the beginning of the listed year? (2025) | Continuous |
| 25.542 | What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 25.477 | What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022? | Continuous |
| 25.262 | What will be the total bilateral commitments of Ukraine support (in billions of EUR) on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 24.703 | What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Feb-2023) | Continuous |
| 24.506 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023? | Binary |
| 24.223 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
California for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 24.010 | Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 23.960 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data? | Continuous |
| 23.838 | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026? | Binary |
| 23.456 | How many weeks will influenza-like illness (ILI) activity levels be at "high" or above in at least five states during the 2023-2024 season? | Continuous |
| 23.405 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Ariane 6) | Continuous |
| 23.375 | Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025? | Binary |
| 21.684 | Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
| 21.469 | What will be the US Consumer Sentiment for May 2024? | Continuous |
| 21.142 | How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue (FY 2025) will come from the Chinese market? (Q1 (FY2025, ends Apr 2024)) | Continuous |
| 20.942 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Colorado for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 20.416 | What percentage of new COVID-19 deaths that occur before 1 August 2022 will be in long-term care facilities? | Continuous |
| 19.847 | What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022? | Continuous |
| 19.523 | How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue (FY 2025) will come from the Chinese market? (Q3 (FY2025, ends Oct 2024)) | Continuous |
| 19.388 | Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? | Binary |
| 19.085 | What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose as of 4 May 2022? | Continuous |
| 18.739 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Florida for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 16.768 | Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024? | Binary |
| 16.719 | What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based eggs be in the U.S. in 2022? | Continuous |
| 16.188 | Before 2025, will the US FDA authorize use of an at-home over-the-counter rapid test for influenza? | Binary |
| 16.174 | When will the FDA authorize an oral antiviral treatment for SARS-CoV-2? | Continuous |
| 13.501 | How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in April 2022? | Continuous |
| 13.032 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Vulcan Centaur) | Continuous |
| 13.007 | What will US inflation be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 12.890 | How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023? | Continuous |
| 12.576 | What will be the UK natural gas futures price (GBp/thm) for May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 11.806 | What is the %reduction in the secondary transmission of Delta from infected vaccinated individuals compared to infected unvaccinated individuals, according to the mean of the first 3 relevant studies? | Continuous |
| 11.665 | When will OpenAI release an AI that significantly improves on GPT-4's factual accuracy? | Continuous |
| 10.896 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data? | Continuous |
| 10.450 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
| 10.360 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 9.976 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2025? | Binary |
| 8.672 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt) | Binary |
| 8.627 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella) | Binary |
| 8.547 | Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026? | Binary |
| 8.544 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy) | Binary |
| 8.476 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever) | Binary |
| 7.802 | Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (China) | Binary |
| 7.121 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati) | Binary |
| 6.683 | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026? | Binary |
| 6.407 | Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads? | Binary |
| 6.161 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Emmett Shear) | Binary |
| 4.959 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output Yes) | Binary |
| 4.716 | When will Virginia's 6-foot distancing requirement for food and beverage establishments be lifted? | Continuous |
| 4.309 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output Yes) | Binary |
| 4.191 | Before 2032, will the US declare a new public health emergency due to an infectious disease outbreak or bioterrorist attack? | Binary |
| 3.423 | Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023? | Binary |
| 3.233 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Texas for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 2.816 | What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15? | Continuous |
| 2.185 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 1.974 | When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users? | Continuous |
| 1.951 | Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024? | Binary |
| 1.688 | What will be the wheat price on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 1.505 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman) | Binary |
| 1.187 | Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 0.523 | Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026? | Binary |
| -0.204 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| -0.477 | What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data? | Continuous |
| -0.973 | How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in cultivated meat companies in 2022? | Continuous |
| -0.979 | Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025? | Binary |
| -1.143 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output No) | Binary |
| -2.292 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Pennsylvania for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| -4.141 | What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 21st of January, 2022? | Continuous |
| -5.108 | Will the weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV equal or exceed 3.0 in the same week in the 2023-24 season? | Binary |
| -5.494 | What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list? | Continuous |
| -6.179 | Will the EPA grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025? | Binary |
| -6.500 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, not optional) | Binary |
| -6.605 | What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data? | Continuous |
| -6.606 | When will the RSV monoclonal antibody nirsevimab (Beyfortus) no longer be in shortage in the US? | Continuous |
| -6.751 | Will the US require and verify reporting of large AI training runs before 2026? | Binary |
| -8.539 | When will the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Interagency Technical Working Group on Race and Ethnicity Standards complete revisions to Statistical Policy Directive No. 15 (SPD 15)? | Continuous |
| -9.453 | Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024? | Binary |
| -12.302 | Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023? | Binary |
| -13.380 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output No) | Binary |
| -14.277 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Illinois for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| -16.657 | Will at least 3 months of third party safety evaluations be conducted on Gemini before its deployment? | Binary |
| -19.833 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
New York for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| -20.167 | What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
| -20.583 | What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14? | Continuous |
| -21.130 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (India) | Binary |
| -22.563 | How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| -26.585 | When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100? | Continuous |
| -28.434 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Massachusetts for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| -34.961 | How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022? | Continuous |
| -37.120 | What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD? | Continuous |
| -37.873 | What will be the share of zero-emission vehicle federal fleet procurements in the United States in the following fiscal years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -38.683 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Missouri for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| -44.487 | Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023? | Binary |
| -45.588 | Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates? | Binary |
| -48.651 | How many cases of vaccine-derived poliovirus will there be between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024 in the Democratic Republic of Congo? | Continuous |
| -52.423 | Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (United States) | Binary |
| -53.300 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -55.868 | Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (Israel) | Binary |
| -58.583 | What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based foods in the U.S. be in 2022? | Continuous |
| -65.633 | Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023? | Binary |
| -67.321 | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | Binary |
| -72.425 | What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14? | Continuous |
| -80.227 | What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022? | Continuous |
| -81.935 | How much total capital will be invested in plant-based foods companies through exits (IPOs, direct listings, mergers and acquisitions) in 2022? | Continuous |
| -87.404 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data? | Continuous |
| -89.288 | When will the U.S. CDC recommend that all fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose? | Continuous |
| -97.763 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| -105.305 | How many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023? | Continuous |
| -107.533 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Google Deep Mind) | Binary |
| -135.735 | What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy? | Continuous |
| -138.575 | Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| -146.148 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |