JAJMLP

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2022

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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3.415k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
93.793	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 25th of March, 2022?	Continuous
92.767	Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
91.560	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?	Binary
91.280	Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
89.700	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?	Binary
86.376	Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?	Binary
77.974	Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
72.349	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?	Binary
70.624	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
70.352	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 11th of March, 2022?	Continuous
68.593	Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?	Binary
66.463	Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
64.749	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 4th of March, 2022?	Continuous
64.615	How many US troops will be in Europe on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
63.660	Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
62.842	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on April 22nd, 2022?	Continuous
62.806	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on March 25, 2022?	Continuous
62.240	Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?	Binary
60.848	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Mar 5)	Continuous
59.756	Will Elizabeth Kim win the Democratic primary for New York's 10th congressional district in 2022?	Binary
57.349	Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
55.067	Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022?	Binary
54.881	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Feb 19)	Continuous
54.216	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 4th, 2022?	Continuous
53.829	Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022?	Binary
53.345	Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?	Binary
52.250	How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022?	Continuous
51.493	What will be the percentage of ED visits with COVID-Like Illness (CLI) symptoms in Virginia for the week ending April 16th, 2022?	Continuous
51.368	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 6th of May, 2022?	Continuous
51.201	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between April 8th, 2022 and July 1st, 2022?	Continuous
51.002	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
50.335	How many Japanese Encephalitis deaths will there be in Australia before July 2022?	Continuous
48.729	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on April 1st, 2022?	Continuous
47.542	Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022?	Binary
47.214	Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?	Binary
46.297	Will average semiconductor chip lead times (amount of time between order and delivery) drop to below 15 weeks at any point before July 1, 2022?	Binary
45.716	Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?	Binary
44.868	Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
43.716	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 15h of April, 2022?	Continuous
43.544	How many cyberattacks on Ukrainian infrastructure will be conducted by Russian-based hackers between March 1, 2022 and June 1, 2022?	Continuous
42.081	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022?	Continuous
42.068	Will a new zero day vulnerability be exploited against and result in the compromise of 100 million Americans’ personal information by June 30, 2022?	Binary
40.537	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Mar 5)	Continuous
40.507	Will there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)?	Binary
38.791	Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?	Binary
38.772	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on March 11, 2022?	Continuous
38.430	How many civilian casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War will there be before May 2022?	Continuous
36.620	What will be the 7-day average of % people wearing masks most or all of the time in public in Virginia on April 15th, 2022?	Continuous
36.552	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between April 8th, 2022 and July 1st, 2022?	Continuous
36.059	Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022?	Binary
35.605	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Feb 5)	Continuous
35.493	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
33.297	Will a cyberattack using the Log4J exploit cause $20 million in damage to a single target before September 1, 2022?	Binary
32.835	Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
32.758	How many Virginia counties will have their COVID-19 Community Level classified as 'High' as of April 14th update?	Continuous
32.319	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 25th, 2022?	Continuous
32.310	How many countries will confirm at least one case of monkeypox by July 31, 2022?	Continuous
31.981	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022?	Continuous
31.636	What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in New York as of August 31, 2022?	Continuous
31.192	Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
30.256	If Russia vetoes the UN Security Council vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, will the UN General Assembly override the veto?	Binary
29.853	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Canada as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
29.372	What percentage of participants who adhere to the diet in the SMTM potato study and start with a BMI > 25 will lose 20 lbs or more over 4 weeks?	Continuous
29.248	Will EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
27.733	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
27.703	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Mar 19)	Continuous
27.415	What will be Virginia’s weekly peak of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 May 2022?	Continuous
27.277	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Mar 5)	Continuous
27.234	What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of August 31, 2022?	Continuous
26.393	What will be the total number of fish that Fish Welfare Initiative (FWI) claims to have helped by 2023?	Continuous
25.557	In the next round of FITARA (Federal Information Technology Acquisition Reform Act) scoring, will the median cyber grade for the covered federal departments and agencies come out as a “B-” or higher?	Binary
25.311	What will be the reported number of 7-day average new Covid-19 cases in Mainland China on 2022-02-28?	Continuous
23.282	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Mar 5)	Continuous
22.981	Will a Republican be elected governor of Maryland in 2022?	Binary
22.699	Will it become public that the United States launched a cyber attack between Jan 1, 2022 and April 30, 2022 against infrastructure associated with Russian cyber operators or proxies?	Binary
22.583	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in the United States as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
21.198	Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
20.930	[Short fuse]: Will Russia assume responsibility and apologize for the Przewodów strike before December?	Binary
20.439	Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?	Binary
20.413	Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?	Binary
20.268	Will an Eliciting Latent Knowledge prize of $50,000 be awarded?	Binary
20.097	Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
19.963	Will Omicron XE be the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the US before June 19, 2022?	Binary
19.538	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Feb 5)	Continuous
19.483	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Liz Truss)	Binary
19.124	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
18.361	Will Éric Zemmour be in the 2nd round of the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
18.339	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Europe as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
18.311	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, "Robots/AIs may be harmful to future generations of people."?	Continuous
18.266	Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022?	Binary
18.007	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Feb 19)	Continuous
16.772	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (June 11)	Continuous
16.084	What percentage of people who try the diet in the SMTM potato study will report an increase in mood?	Continuous
15.910	Will any Fields Medal winner boycott ICM 2022 for political reasons?	Binary
14.891	What percentage of participants who adhere to the diet in the SMTM potato study and start with a BMI > 30 will lose 20 lbs or more over 4 weeks?	Continuous
14.606	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
13.052	Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
12.842	Will Mehmet Oz win the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania?	Binary
12.559	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Feb 19)	Continuous
12.077	Will the New York Times place Wordle (or any currently existing part of Wordle) behind a paywall during 2022?	Binary
11.620	Will North Korea have internet failures on 4 or more days between March 8, 2022 and August 1, 2022?	Binary
11.565	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults answered “Yes” to the statement, “Do you think it could ever be possible for robots/AIs to be sentient?”	Continuous
11.375	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?	Binary
10.479	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Feb 5)	Continuous
10.453	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between April 8th and July 1st 2022?	Continuous
10.010	Will at least four REvil gang members be in prison on May 15, 2022?	Binary
9.912	How many subscribers will the Effective Altruism subreddit have on January 1, 2023?	Continuous
9.777	Will Twitter's board accept an acquisition offer from someone other than Elon Musk before 2023?	Binary
9.092	Will James Charles have more than 25 million Youtube subscribers by January 1, 2023?	Binary
9.080	What percentage of the vote share will Carrick Flynn receive in the OR-6 Democratic primary?	Continuous
8.857	Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?	Binary
8.811	Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
8.596	Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023?	Binary
8.372	Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
8.282	When will Paxlovid be given FDA authorization or approval for patients who are not high-risk?	Continuous
8.185	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Feb 19)	Continuous
7.759	Will there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)?	Binary
7.711	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?	Binary
7.468	How many smallsat launches will there be in 2022?	Continuous
7.453	How much crude oil will the US import from Russia in 2022?	Continuous
7.438	Will the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest be won by a country that is, at the time, also a member of the European Union?	Binary
7.398	Will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) exceed 60 on any single day in 2022?	Binary
7.339	Will Sarah Palin be elected as US Representative for Alaska in 2022?	Binary
7.211	How much crude oil will the US hold in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as of December 2022?	Continuous
7.010	What percentage of people who sign up for the SMTM potato study will complete all 4 weeks of the diet?	Continuous
6.996	By February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope successfully see First Light?	Binary
6.878	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (France)	Binary
6.717	How many acres will burn in wildfires in California in 2022?	Continuous
6.675	How many states in the United States will report having a case of monkeypox as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
6.498	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Mar 19)	Continuous
6.361	Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
6.103	Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
5.999	Will Beto O'Rourke win the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election?	Binary
5.980	Will a cyberattack target a major system's data integrity before July 1, 2022?	Binary
5.870	Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?	Binary
5.847	What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in California as of August 31, 2022?	Continuous
5.694	Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?	Binary
5.539	What will be Virginia’s weekly peak of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 May 2022?	Continuous
5.453	Will Doug Mastriano be elected Governor of Pennsylvania in 2022?	Binary
5.381	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (England)	Binary
5.259	What percent of voters will vote in favor of Sioux Falls' 2022 Slaughterhouse ballot question?	Continuous
5.242	What will be the market capitalization of Netflix on December 1, 2022?	Continuous
5.227	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Feb 19)	Continuous
5.112	How much will China spend on importing diodes and semiconductors in 2022?	Continuous
5.044	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Brazil)	Binary
4.836	Will Stacey Abrams be elected Governor of Georgia in 2022?	Binary
4.368	Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
4.206	How many border crossings leaving Ukraine will there be in 2022?	Continuous
4.152	Will PredictIt default on its obligation to allow its users to withdraw funds before 2023?	Binary
4.132	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Spain)	Binary
4.059	Will Solana be in the top-10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on December 31, 2022?	Binary
4.016	Will the U.S. Congress pass legislation authorizing at least $50 billion to the semiconductor industry before May 1, 2022?	Binary
3.991	Will Liverpool win the 2021-2022 Premier League?	Binary
3.963	Will Ukraine win the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest?	Binary
3.802	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Mar 5)	Continuous
3.755	Will J.D. Vance win the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio?	Binary
3.587	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Germany)	Binary
3.383	Before 2022-04-01, will martial law be on in any five federal subjects of Russia excluding all the territories annexed after 2013?	Binary
3.026	Will Rick Caruso be elected Mayor of Los Angeles in 2022?	Binary
2.771	How far ahead or behind of Labour will the UK's Conservative Party be in the polls on October 6, 2022?	Continuous
2.530	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (June 11)	Continuous
2.447	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Aug 21, 2022)	Continuous
2.440	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Aug 21, 2022)	Continuous
2.262	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (June 11)	Continuous
2.230	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “I support granting legal rights to sentient robots/AIs.”?	Continuous
2.162	Will Blake Masters win the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona?	Binary
2.122	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Feb 19)	Continuous
1.656	Will there be a successful cyberattack on the 2022 FIFA World Cup?	Binary
1.495	Will the Buffalo Bills play in Super Bowl LVI?	Binary
1.432	[short-fuse] Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
1.248	How many new Pokemon will Pokemon Scarlet and Violet introduce?	Continuous
0.959	Will Raphael Warnock be re-elected in the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia?	Binary
0.946	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (June 11)	Continuous
0.878	Will Carrick Flynn win the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
0.778	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Jun 26, 2022)	Continuous
0.325	Will Seattle's Approval Voting ballot initiative (Initiative 134) pass?	Binary
0.234	Will the US claim that a Russian disinformation campaign attempted to influence the 2022 midterm elections?	Binary
-1.022	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022?	Continuous
-1.029	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022?	Continuous
-1.542	Will Wales score a goal against England on Tuesday?	Binary
-1.641	Will the study “Knowledge about others reduces one’s own sense of anonymity” (Nature, 2022) replicate?	Binary
-3.646	Will the ceasefire in Yemen hold for its intended duration?	Binary
-3.868	Will "Counterfeit Diversity: How Strategically Misrepresenting Gender Diversity Dampens Organizations’ Perceived Sincerity and Elevates Women’s Identity Threat Concerns" (JPSP, 2022) replicate?	Continuous
-4.049	Will Catherine Cortez Masto be re-elected in the 2022 US Senate election in Nevada?	Binary
-7.002	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Mar 19)	Continuous
-7.300	Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?	Binary
-7.915	Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?	Binary
-8.558	When will the Apple Watch Series 8 be available for pre-order?	Continuous
-9.875	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Argentina)	Binary
-11.482	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on Mar 4, 2022?	Continuous
-13.240	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Mar 19)	Continuous
-14.342	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Feb 5)	Continuous
-16.549	Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?	Binary
-17.639	Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022?	Binary
-19.192	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Mar 5)	Continuous
-21.644	Will the UK authorise fourth doses of Covid vaccines for healthy adults in 2022?	Binary
-22.412	What will total NATO defense spending be in 2022?	Continuous
-23.926	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?	Binary
-24.497	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “I support a global ban on the development of sentience in robots/AIs.”?	Continuous
-33.708	Will Rafael Nadal make it to the semifinals of every Grand Slam in 2022?	Binary
-34.077	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Mar 19)	Continuous
-47.043	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Mar 19)	Continuous
-103.690	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “The welfare of robots/AIs is one of the most important social issues in the world today.”?	Continuous
-131.285	How many additional Eliciting Latent Knowledge prizes will be awarded?	Continuous
-131.370	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between April 9, 2022 and July 2, 2022?	Continuous
-147.517	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
-180.423	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous