JAJMLP

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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1.592k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
142.039	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
95.208	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
84.447	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
79.696	On what date will the U.S. CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC)?	Continuous
76.614	How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
74.684	What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?	Continuous
73.262	What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
62.441	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
61.954	When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?	Continuous
60.329	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2022)	Continuous
57.025	What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022?	Continuous
54.813	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (February 2023)	Continuous
53.579	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
50.704	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
50.412	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Feb-2023)	Continuous
49.890	How many emergency department overdose visits will there be in Q1 2022 in Virginia?	Continuous
47.001	What will Lebanon's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?	Continuous
46.969	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
43.725	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?	Continuous
42.862	Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person before 2023?	Binary
39.719	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?	Continuous
34.140	Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?	Binary
32.686	What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?	Continuous
32.333	How many weeks will Virginia experience “widespread” influenza activity during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
31.249	How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
28.884	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
26.525	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
25.044	How many new building permits will be authorized in the SF metro area in 2022?	Continuous
24.299	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
20.766	What will the number of active volcanos be in 2022?	Continuous
20.232	When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA?	Continuous
20.194	What will Virginia's percent unemployment rate be in April 2022?	Continuous
18.711	Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 300 questions?	Binary
18.570	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
16.464	What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
16.149	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
15.932	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
15.192	When will the percentage of Virginians who have received a booster dose exceed 50%?	Continuous
15.061	Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?	Binary
14.236	How many of Virginia's 133 communities will be experiencing moderate or higher levels of community transmission as of 7 March 2022?	Continuous
13.942	What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?	Continuous
13.727	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?	Binary
11.963	Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 300 questions?	Binary
10.306	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?	Binary
10.302	Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?	Binary
10.214	What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?	Continuous
9.737	What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose as of 4 May 2022?	Continuous
9.687	By what percentage will the total US yearly retail sales of plant-based meat in 2022 grow compared to 2020?	Continuous
9.658	Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023?	Binary
9.022	When will total nonfarm employees in Virginia exceed 4 million?	Continuous
8.772	Will a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022?	Binary
8.312	Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?	Binary
8.051	Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023?	Binary
7.941	When will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
7.712	How many deaths from terrorism in 2020?	Continuous
7.646	What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
7.392	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?	Continuous
7.287	Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 100 questions?	Binary
7.191	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15?	Continuous
7.161	What percentage of new COVID-19 deaths that occur before 1 August 2022 will be in long-term care facilities?	Continuous
7.094	How much will a pound of fresh beef cost in cents in January 2023?	Continuous
6.938	Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?	Binary
6.918	How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in April 2022?	Continuous
6.838	Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?	Binary
6.820	What will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
6.384	When will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
6.267	When will 100M doses of Moderna's Omicron-specific booster candidate or multi-valent booster candidates be distributed?	Continuous
6.244	What will be the percent SOL assessment pass rate in math for Virginian third graders in the 2021-2022?	Continuous
6.081	When will Uber become cheaper in the Bay Area?	Continuous
5.526	How many cultivated meat ventures there will be in 2022 according to the GFI State of Industry report for that year?	Continuous
5.369	How much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021?	Continuous
5.290	When will Apple announce the first computer that uses the second generation of their M-series processor (likely to be named the M2)?	Continuous
5.162	What will the disclosed global venture capital investment in cultivated meat companies be in 2022 (in millions of USD)?	Continuous
5.140	What will be the ratio of 2022 to 2021 average global interest in vertical farming?	Continuous
5.128	Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?	Binary
5.119	Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?	Binary
4.966	Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?	Binary
4.935	Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?	Binary
4.932	How many positive influenza specimens will be detected by the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System in the peak week for the Northern Hemisphere over the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
4.844	Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?	Binary
4.818	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
4.781	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Feb-2023)	Continuous
4.777	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
4.705	What percentage of US children under 5-years-old will have at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
4.567	What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
4.551	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022?	Continuous
4.498	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
4.439	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
4.356	Will the US CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before August 1, 2022?	Binary
4.102	Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?	Binary
3.937	What will the total amount of worldwide venture capital funding in quantum computing be in 2022?	Continuous
3.934	What will be the total global production of biofuels (measured in thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day) in 2022?	Continuous
3.926	Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session??	Binary
3.793	Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?	Binary
3.731	Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023?	Binary
3.631	Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?	Binary
3.622	What will the price of oil be for December 2022?	Continuous
3.273	When will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space?	Continuous
3.246	What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?	Continuous
3.168	When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases fall below 1015?	Continuous
3.142	Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?	Binary
3.134	Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?	Binary
3.094	When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 hospitalizations fall below 49?	Continuous
3.089	What will be the largest cultivated meat production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single facility by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
3.040	When will VDH’s frequency of COVID-19 case reporting switch to weekly or less?	Continuous
3.032	What will Rivian's market cap be at the close of trading on 20 April 2022?	Continuous
2.902	Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?	Binary
2.898	How many influenza-associated pediatric deaths will there be in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
2.741	When will the CDC eliminate quarantine restrictions for close contacts of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
2.675	Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?	Binary
2.603	When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?	Continuous
2.509	What is the %reduction in the secondary transmission of Delta from infected vaccinated individuals compared to infected unvaccinated individuals, according to the mean of the first 3 relevant studies?	Continuous
2.395	What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?	Continuous
2.386	What will the estimated number of people (in millions) in severe food insecurity be in 2022, according to the 2023 FAO “State of food security and nutrition in the world” annual report?	Continuous
2.326	What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?	Continuous
2.271	Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
2.143	What will be the number of conflicts with significant impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
2.123	Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?	Binary
2.011	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
1.861	When will 50,000 Chevy Bolt EV and Chevy Bolt EUV vehicles have completed repairs for the recall relating to risk of battery fire?	Continuous
1.789	What will be the number of conflicts with critical impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
1.785	Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?	Binary
1.781	Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?	Binary
1.762	What will South Africa's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?	Continuous
1.754	What retail market share will plant-based milk make up of the total milk category in the US in 2022?	Continuous
1.590	How many eviction cases will be filed in Virginia in Q4 2021?	Continuous
1.517	Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2023?	Binary
1.361	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based eggs be in the U.S. in 2022?	Continuous
1.306	Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?	Binary
1.283	Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023?	Binary
1.227	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
1.112	What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US, in billions USD, in 2022?	Continuous
1.084	How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?	Continuous
1.073	Will a university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again?	Binary
1.004	How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2022?	Continuous
0.930	What will be the weekly peak percent of medical visits that are for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
0.803	Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?	Binary
0.760	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2022?	Continuous
0.614	If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?	Continuous
0.406	What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2022?	Continuous
0.204	When will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments?	Continuous
-0.592	Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?	Binary
-0.798	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based foods in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
-0.998	Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?	Binary
-1.142	How many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023?	Continuous
-2.349	How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in cultivated meat companies in 2022?	Continuous
-2.517	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
-2.615	When will the U.S. CDC recommend that all fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?	Continuous
-3.364	When will the Mars helicopter Ingenuity stop making successful flights for 6 months?	Continuous
-5.377	How much total capital will be invested in plant-based foods companies through exits (IPOs, direct listings, mergers and acquisitions) in 2022?	Continuous
-5.511	What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?	Continuous
-6.507	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2022?	Continuous
-7.021	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?	Continuous
-7.267	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-13.767	Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?	Binary
-15.817	If Elizabeth Holmes is convicted in Theranos fraud trial, how long will her sentence be?	Continuous
-16.995	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?	Continuous
-23.122	Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022?	Binary
-23.272	What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?	Continuous
-27.271	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-31.251	When will the pre-August 2022 peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia occur?	Continuous
-34.256	Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?	Binary
-43.365	Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?	Binary
-50.718	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
-90.379	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-99.409	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
-127.792	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?	Continuous