johnnycaffeine

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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5.315k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
98.761	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
98.493	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
98.186	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
97.626	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
97.459	Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?	Binary
96.872	Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?	Binary
95.291	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
92.146	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
91.454	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
89.243	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
88.694	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in January 2023?	Continuous
88.639	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
87.548	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
86.490	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
86.430	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
86.111	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
85.436	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
85.049	What percent of US adults will report having received an updated COVID booster vaccine for the 2023-2024 season on the following dates? (December 30, 2023)	Continuous
84.047	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
83.740	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
82.330	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
81.690	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2024)	Binary
78.699	Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?	Binary
77.810	Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?	Binary
76.207	Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?	Binary
74.451	Will year-on-year core inflation in the United States exceed 6% for the year ending in December 2022?	Binary
74.243	Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?	Binary
74.032	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
74.026	Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
73.003	Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?	Binary
70.244	Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
70.134	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
70.120	Will OpenAI release a "product" after ChatGPT before 2024?	Binary
69.531	What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023?	Continuous
69.149	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
69.049	Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?	Binary
67.724	Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?	Binary
64.087	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
58.408	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
57.558	Wagner Group Controls Moscow by July 1, 2023? (No) → Ukraine Controls DNR/LNR on Jan 1, 2024	Binary
57.455	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
57.244	Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate?	Binary
54.585	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
54.146	Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?	Binary
50.108	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?	Continuous
48.488	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (New Left)	Binary
48.488	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Polish Coalition)	Binary
48.488	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Confederation)	Binary
48.488	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Poland 2050)	Binary
48.488	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Agreement)	Binary
48.488	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Kukiz'15)	Binary
48.488	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Democratic Left)	Binary
47.917	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
47.265	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
46.132	How much will Donald Trump's Republican primary polling average change two weeks after the first debate?	Continuous
45.004	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023)	Binary
44.758	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
43.614	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
42.875	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
41.951	How many FDIC banks will fail in 2023?	Continuous
39.684	What percent of children under 8 months of age will surveyed parents report having received nirsevimab on the following dates? (December 30, 2023)	Continuous
38.440	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Civic Platform)	Binary
37.276	Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?	Binary
35.444	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
35.167	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Law and Justice (PiS))	Binary
34.839	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
34.602	What will NVIDIA's market cap be at the end of 2023?	Continuous
34.095	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (England)	Binary
32.710	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 30, 2023)	Continuous
31.808	Will the Israeli High Court uphold the "reasonableness" law?	Binary
31.480	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
29.142	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
27.955	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
27.782	Will the Chandrayaan-3 lander soft-land on the moon?	Binary
27.192	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
26.879	Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?	Binary
26.278	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
25.960	How many ratings will Prince Harry's book Spare have on Amazon on January 20th at 7:00 pm GMT?	Continuous
25.492	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Jamaica)	Binary
25.058	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
24.997	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
23.257	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
23.064	Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023?	Binary
22.959	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
22.842	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Australia)	Binary
22.700	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Denmark)	Binary
22.568	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Nigeria)	Binary
21.969	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
21.342	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (September 2)	Continuous
20.828	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Sweden)	Binary
20.807	What rating will Bethesda's video game Starfield have on Steam two weeks after release?	Continuous
20.606	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
20.078	Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?	Binary
19.192	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
18.828	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Africa)	Binary
18.607	Will "All Quiet on the Western Front" win Best Picture - Non-English Language at the 2023 Golden Globe Awards?	Binary
18.296	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 30, 2023)	Continuous
17.932	Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case?	Binary
17.572	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
17.162	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 16, 2023)	Continuous
17.074	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 16, 2023)	Continuous
16.569	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Norway)	Binary
16.201	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Colombia)	Binary
15.666	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
15.552	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
13.328	Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?	Binary
12.779	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 16, 2023)	Continuous
12.623	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (France)	Binary
12.368	Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?	Binary
12.005	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
11.259	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Netherlands)	Binary
11.183	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
10.855	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
10.714	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
10.523	Will Virgin Orbit file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
10.400	Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight?	Binary
10.285	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
9.967	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Japan)	Binary
9.871	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
9.852	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Germany)	Binary
8.326	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
8.321	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
8.318	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
8.073	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?	Binary
8.047	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Italy)	Binary
7.696	Will the maiden flight of the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 launch successfully and on time?	Binary
7.634	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 16, 2023)	Continuous
7.551	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
6.928	What place will Canada get in the 2023 International Math Olympiad?	Continuous
6.313	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
5.211	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (United States)	Binary
5.078	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
4.964	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Morocco)	Binary
4.840	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
4.609	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
4.563	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Portugal)	Binary
4.276	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
3.907	Will countries commit at least 100 US/German-made modern main battle tanks to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
3.428	Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?	Binary
3.334	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
3.219	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
2.979	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
2.831	Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season?	Binary
2.777	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
2.713	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
2.533	What will be the total number of fish that Fish Welfare Initiative (FWI) claims to have helped by 2024?	Continuous
2.502	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?	Binary
2.224	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
2.001	When will the successor to Kevin McCarthy be elected as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives?	Continuous
1.889	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
1.887	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
1.877	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
1.873	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
1.514	Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?	Binary
1.346	Will there be more than 10 ministerial resignations in Rishi Sunak’s government before 2024?	Binary
1.243	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
1.200	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sundar Pichai)	Binary
1.177	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sam Altman)	Binary
1.177	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Mark Zuckerberg)	Binary
1.162	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Dario Amodei)	Binary
0.867	Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.773	Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?	Binary
0.284	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
0.003	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Mike Johnson (R))	Binary
0.002	Will Silicon Valley Bank file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-11.805	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-16.620	Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-19.406	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
-20.448	Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?	Binary
-29.730	What percentage of the vote will presidential candidate candidate Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Open Primaries Elections?	Continuous
-46.473	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
-46.822	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Spain)	Binary
-171.718	Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary

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Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

johnnycaffeine

User

johnnycaffeine