88.329 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United) | Binary |
86.502 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton & Hove Albion) | Binary |
84.761 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United) | Binary |
83.733 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur) | Binary |
81.834 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Cincinnati Bengals) | Binary |
81.817 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (San Francisco 49ers) | Binary |
81.092 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Philadelphia Eagles) | Binary |
80.935 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New York Giants) | Binary |
80.813 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Dallas Cowboys) | Binary |
80.280 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brentford) | Binary |
79.831 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Jacksonville Jaguars) | Binary |
79.515 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Aston Villa) | Binary |
79.342 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Fulham) | Binary |
78.294 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Liverpool) | Binary |
78.102 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Chelsea) | Binary |
77.625 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Seattle Seahawks) | Binary |
77.231 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Minnesota Vikings) | Binary |
77.099 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Baltimore Ravens) | Binary |
77.031 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Miami Dolphins) | Binary |
76.783 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | Binary |
76.319 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Los Angeles Chargers) | Binary |
75.322 | Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
74.882 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Detroit Lions) | Binary |
74.806 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Pittsburgh Steelers) | Binary |
74.050 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New England Patriots) | Binary |
73.672 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers) | Binary |
73.672 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Crystal Palace) | Binary |
73.634 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Tennessee Titans) | Binary |
73.379 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest) | Binary |
73.379 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leicester City) | Binary |
73.309 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Green Bay Packers) | Binary |
73.149 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (West Ham United) | Binary |
72.034 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Southampton) | Binary |
72.034 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leeds United) | Binary |
72.034 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Everton) | Binary |
72.034 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Bournemouth) | Binary |
70.921 | Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024? | Binary |
70.904 | Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024? | Binary |
70.647 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New Orleans Saints) | Binary |
70.570 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Carolina Panthers) | Binary |
70.088 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Buffalo Bills) | Binary |
70.015 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New York Jets) | Binary |
69.762 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Las Vegas Raiders) | Binary |
69.361 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Washington Commanders) | Binary |
66.127 | What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022? | Continuous |
65.873 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Cleveland Browns) | Binary |
64.954 | Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024? | Binary |
64.942 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Atlanta Falcons) | Binary |
64.636 | Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
64.406 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Indianapolis Colts) | Binary |
63.922 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
63.794 | Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024? | Binary |
62.955 | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
62.482 | How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022? | Continuous |
62.129 | In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people? | Binary |
61.633 | Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024? | Binary |
61.342 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Shas) | Binary |
61.323 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Arizona Cardinals) | Binary |
61.095 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Los Angeles Rams) | Binary |
59.454 | In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan? | Binary |
58.618 | Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024? | Binary |
58.466 | Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023? | Binary |
58.439 | In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine? | Binary |
57.944 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Denver Broncos) | Binary |
57.241 | Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024? | Binary |
55.473 | Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination? | Binary |
54.859 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
54.849 | Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023? | Binary |
54.741 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
54.080 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Chicago Bears) | Binary |
54.080 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Houston Texans) | Binary |
53.780 | Will the US ban TikTok before 2024? | Binary |
53.372 | Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023? | Binary |
52.846 | In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"? | Binary |
52.628 | Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024? | Binary |
52.379 | Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024? | Binary |
52.133 | On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter? | Binary |
52.055 | In 2023 will the UK hold a general election? | Binary |
52.047 | Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024? | Binary |
51.669 | On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia? | Binary |
51.634 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol? | Binary |
51.128 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk? | Binary |
51.116 | Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024? | Binary |
50.680 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Lex Fridman) | Binary |
50.473 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (UTJ) | Binary |
50.157 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Blake Masters) | Binary |
49.909 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Meretz) | Binary |
49.546 | Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023? | Binary |
49.179 | Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024? | Binary |
48.875 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (John Legere) | Binary |
48.747 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Peter Thiel) | Binary |
48.193 | On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK? | Binary |
48.186 | In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court? | Binary |
48.173 | In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area? | Binary |
47.990 | Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023? | Binary |
47.847 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Labor) | Binary |
47.734 | Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
47.311 | Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
47.250 | On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour? | Binary |
47.112 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sheryl Sandberg) | Binary |
47.111 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jared Kushner) | Binary |
46.815 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (David Sacks) | Binary |
46.770 | Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024? | Binary |
46.257 | In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran? | Binary |
45.821 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Mike Schroepfer) | Binary |
45.259 | On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating? | Binary |
45.224 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Steve Davis) | Binary |
44.847 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
44.784 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jason Calacanis) | Binary |
44.761 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sriram Krishnan) | Binary |
44.536 | Depending on US/NATO conducting military operations in Ukraine, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US/NATO Ops in UA) | Binary |
43.785 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Joint List) | Binary |
43.215 | What percentage of people in low-income countries will have recieved at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by January 1, 2023? | Continuous |
42.819 | On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war? | Binary |
42.584 | On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it? | Binary |
42.236 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia? | Binary |
41.269 | Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024? | Binary |
40.778 | Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023? | Binary |
40.644 | Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
40.558 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Yisrael Beiteinu) | Binary |
40.464 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024? | Binary |
40.129 | How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022? | Continuous |
38.881 | Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023? | Binary |
38.779 | In 2023, will Tether de-peg? | Binary |
38.718 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Zionist Spirit) | Binary |
38.536 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (New Hope) | Binary |
38.375 | Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024? | Binary |
38.200 | Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2) | Binary |
37.859 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Religious Zionist) | Binary |
37.621 | Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024? | Binary |
37.324 | Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta? | Binary |
37.256 | Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024? | Binary |
36.931 | Will Bitcoin go up over 2023? | Binary |
36.886 | Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024? | Binary |
36.422 | Will the US “Rewards for Justice” program pay the $10M reward offered for information on the interference in the 2020 presidential election? | Binary |
36.183 | In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency? | Binary |
35.843 | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023? | Binary |
35.718 | Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
35.459 | Depending on Ukraine re-taking control of Kherson, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukrainian Control) | Binary |
35.150 | Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023? | Binary |
34.974 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024? | Binary |
34.378 | Depending on the US giving Ukraine fighter aircraft, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US aircraft) | Binary |
33.635 | Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023? | Binary |
33.503 | Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024? | Binary |
32.580 | On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment? | Binary |
32.482 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023? | Binary |
32.346 | Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
32.337 | Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023? | Binary |
32.036 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Elon Musk) | Binary |
31.904 | In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)? | Binary |
30.041 | Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024? | Binary |
29.828 | Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024? | Binary |
29.743 | What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR ≥ 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%) | Binary |
29.328 | Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023? | Binary |
28.873 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Blue and White) | Binary |
28.261 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2023) | Binary |
27.615 | Will Finland join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
27.569 | Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024? | Binary |
27.495 | What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR < 4.5%, core PCE < 3%) | Binary |
27.316 | Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Meatpacking) | Binary |
27.164 | Depending on Ukraine striking targets in Russian territory, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukraine strikes) | Binary |
26.969 | Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023? | Binary |
26.862 | Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024? | Binary |
26.791 | Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024? | Binary |
26.710 | Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (ATACMS provided) | Binary |
26.470 | Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023? | Binary |
26.342 | Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Water Treatment) | Binary |
26.136 | Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022? | Binary |
26.031 | Will the US Supplemental Poverty Measure be higher in 2022 than 2021? | Binary |
26.021 | In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset? | Binary |
25.413 | In 2023 will AI win a programming competition? | Binary |
24.847 | What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022? | Continuous |
24.763 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
24.753 | In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high? | Binary |
24.627 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Yesh Atid) | Binary |
24.186 | Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Haiti) | Binary |
23.191 | Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023? | Binary |
23.129 | What will be the UK's annual inflation rate in the following years? (2022) | Continuous |
23.077 | West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Ghana) | Binary |
21.703 | Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024? | Binary |
21.635 | Will there be a publicly reported cyberattack against the global navigation satellite systems between April 1, 2022 and May 31, 2023? | Binary |
20.740 | What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR ≥ 4.5%, core PCE < 3%) | Binary |
20.063 | How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000) | Binary |
19.441 | Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022? | Binary |
19.099 | Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024? | Binary |
18.531 | In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source? | Binary |
17.627 | Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023? | Binary |
17.474 | When will Boris Johnson no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom? | Continuous |
17.273 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
14.711 | In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30? | Binary |
14.473 | Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to adenovirus infection? | Binary |
14.471 | In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet? | Binary |
13.850 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leicester City) | Continuous |
13.688 | Will Tsinghua University bar some students from returning to the dorms for the 2023 Spring Semester? | Binary |
13.427 | Will it become public that the FBI sought a warrant to launch an operation to disrupt web shells on private computers in 2022? | Binary |
13.373 | In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China? | Binary |
12.675 | Will a decision be made to start and fund a dedicated and systematic science and technology review process at the 2022 BWC Review Conference? | Binary |
12.617 | In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action? | Binary |
12.614 | Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023? | Binary |
11.967 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal) | Continuous |
11.904 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers) | Continuous |
11.813 | Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023? | Binary |
11.503 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Bournemouth) | Continuous |
11.435 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton and Hove Albion) | Continuous |
11.423 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Aston Villa) | Continuous |
11.377 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City) | Continuous |
11.273 | How much oil will Venezuela produce in 2022? | Continuous |
11.239 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Crystal Palace) | Continuous |
11.199 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Detroit Lions) | Binary |
11.081 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Las Vegas Raiders) | Binary |
10.953 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur) | Continuous |
10.879 | In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines? | Binary |
10.784 | Will there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022? | Binary |
10.454 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Fulham) | Continuous |
10.435 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest) | Continuous |
10.418 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (West Ham United) | Continuous |
10.344 | In 2023 will any new country join NATO? | Binary |
10.306 | Will Peter Daszak be the president of EcoHealth Alliance on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
10.270 | Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023? | Binary |
10.270 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United) | Continuous |
10.186 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Everton) | Continuous |
10.146 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United) | Continuous |
9.939 | Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023? | Binary |
9.878 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brentford) | Continuous |
9.834 | Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024? | Binary |
9.797 | Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Aviation) | Binary |
9.746 | Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023? | Binary |
9.600 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Liverpool) | Continuous |
9.576 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Rams) | Binary |
9.552 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leeds United) | Continuous |
9.375 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Buffalo Bills) | Binary |
9.333 | Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023? | Binary |
9.092 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Southampton) | Continuous |
9.062 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Chelsea) | Continuous |
8.988 | Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023? | Binary |
8.945 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Cleveland Browns) | Binary |
8.666 | Will the Social Democrats hold a position in government after the next Danish general election? | Binary |
8.429 | What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022? | Continuous |
8.380 | Will Chase Bank send a notice to customers about updates to its security protocols, referencing the threat of social engineering attacks that can be attributed to LLMs, before 2024? | Binary |
8.093 | Will Philip Davis cease to be Prime Minister of the Bahamas before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
7.983 | How many goals will Erling Haaland score in the Premier League 2022/23 season? | Continuous |
7.982 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New Orleans Saints) | Binary |
7.967 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Carolina Panthers) | Binary |
7.654 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Pittsburgh Steelers) | Binary |
7.284 | Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Gas/Oil Pipeline) | Binary |
6.880 | Will the Peoples Democratic Party win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential election? | Binary |
6.427 | In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4? | Binary |
6.169 | Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%? | Binary |
6.111 | If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023? | Binary |
5.953 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Houston Texans) | Binary |
5.895 | Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning? | Binary |
5.809 | How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000) | Binary |
5.796 | Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
5.523 | Will the city of Redondo Beach, CA pass a ballot initiative to adopt STAR voting in March 2023? | Binary |
5.314 | By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine? | Binary |
4.946 | By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt? | Binary |
4.620 | Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024? | Binary |
4.184 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Denver Broncos) | Binary |
3.988 | Will the TSA extend or reimpose a mask mandate on public transportation before 2024? | Binary |
2.453 | Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries? | Binary |
2.260 | In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges? | Binary |
1.909 | Will a new Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy be created if the PREVENT Pandemics Act is made law? | Binary |
1.527 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Chicago Bears) | Binary |
0.793 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Jeremy Hunt) | Binary |
0.765 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Ben Wallace) | Binary |
0.735 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Seattle Seahawks) | Binary |
0.660 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Theresa May) | Binary |
0.650 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Grant Shapps) | Binary |
0.637 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Suella Braverman) | Binary |
0.598 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (San Francisco 49ers) | Binary |
0.532 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Penny Mourdant) | Binary |
0.511 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Boris Johnson) | Binary |
0.189 | How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000) | Binary |
0.179 | Will Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously? | Binary |
0.057 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Rishi Sunak) | Binary |
0.014 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Kansas City Chiefs) | Binary |
- | Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
- | Will OPEC raise its forecast for 2023 global oil demand in its January 2023 report? | Binary |
-0.123 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Dallas Cowboys) | Binary |
-0.249 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Cincinnati Bengals) | Binary |
-0.601 | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
-1.134 | Will the US PREVENT Pandemics Act be made into law before February 2023? | Binary |
-1.266 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023? | Binary |
-1.415 | Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (March 1, 2023) | Binary |
-2.218 | Will China adopt any legislation or regulations to prevent contamination of the environment with antimicrobials by 2024? | Binary |
-3.754 | Will Andrej Babiš win the next Czech Republic presidental election? | Binary |
-6.208 | Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023) | Binary |
-7.623 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Likud) | Binary |
-7.627 | Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024? | Binary |
-7.850 | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023? | Binary |
-8.350 | Will the Supreme Court overturn California's Proposition 12 in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross before 2024? | Binary |
-9.678 | Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023? | Binary |
-9.858 | Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022? | Binary |
-11.183 | Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000? | Binary |
-16.422 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Jacksonville Jaguars) | Binary |
-19.587 | Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023? | Binary |
-24.153 | Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023? | Binary |
-26.220 | Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023? | Binary |
-28.344 | Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023? | Binary |
-28.765 | Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024? | Binary |
-28.821 | In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit? | Binary |
-32.256 | In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction? | Binary |
-32.528 | Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023? | Binary |
-33.356 | What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR < 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%) | Binary |
-41.823 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal) | Binary |
-55.631 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
-66.058 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
-158.714 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City) | Binary |
-273.169 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Kansas City Chiefs) | Binary |