| 95.385 | Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023? | Binary |
| 94.431 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 91.641 | Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination? (Yes) → Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? | Binary |
| 90.609 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 90.149 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
| 89.599 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
| 87.836 | Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025? | Binary |
| 87.351 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 86.715 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 86.383 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 82.225 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
| 80.319 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 77.477 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
| 74.920 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
| 74.920 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 73.827 | Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 73.336 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 72.232 | Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU? | Binary |
| 71.737 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
| 70.733 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Dallas Mavericks) | Binary |
| 69.187 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 68.846 | Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023? | Binary |
| 67.784 | How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 66.854 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 66.664 | Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023? | Binary |
| 66.394 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 66.215 | Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023? | Binary |
| 65.992 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 65.314 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Minnesota Timberwolves) | Binary |
| 65.059 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 64.658 | Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 64.409 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Indiana Pacers) | Binary |
| 63.505 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 63.415 | Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont? | Binary |
| 63.000 | How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue? | Continuous |
| 62.916 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 62.572 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 62.001 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Denver Nuggets) | Binary |
| 61.946 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (New York Knicks) | Binary |
| 61.782 | Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025? | Binary |
| 61.703 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Oklahoma City Thunder) | Binary |
| 60.992 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Terry Gou (Independent)) | Binary |
| 60.804 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 60.784 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Cleveland Cavaliers) | Binary |
| 60.266 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 60.129 | Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025? | Binary |
| 58.685 | Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 58.480 | Will a lead-apatite class superconductor with a warm Tc be found before 2025? | Binary |
| 58.179 | What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 yellow maize - Max) | Continuous |
| 57.851 | Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022? | Binary |
| 57.708 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Orlando Magic) | Binary |
| 57.214 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Los Angeles Clippers) | Binary |
| 57.111 | What will Virginia's percent unemployment rate be in April 2022? | Continuous |
| 56.905 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Philadelphia 76ers) | Binary |
| 56.874 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 56.581 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Miami Heat) | Binary |
| 56.263 | Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31? | Binary |
| 56.013 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Los Angeles Lakers) | Binary |
| 55.994 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (New Orleans Pelicans) | Binary |
| 55.659 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Phoenix Suns) | Binary |
| 55.079 | Room-temp Superconductor Replicated by 2025 (No) → Commercial Room-Temp Superconductor by 2025? | Binary |
| 55.043 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 54.992 | What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 53.917 | Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 53.472 | Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023? | Binary |
| 53.303 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 53.000 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Sacremento Kings) | Binary |
| 52.969 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Chicago Bulls) | Binary |
| 52.403 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Atlanta Hawks) | Binary |
| 52.371 | Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 52.338 | Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? | Binary |
| 52.108 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Golden State Warriors) | Binary |
| 51.872 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ID) | Binary |
| 51.791 | What percentage of US children under 5-years-old will have at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 51.662 | Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023? | Binary |
| 51.570 | Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam? | Binary |
| 51.359 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government) | Binary |
| 51.222 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Greens–EFA) | Binary |
| 50.784 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | Binary |
| 50.773 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ECR) | Binary |
| 50.573 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Milwaukee Bucks) | Binary |
| 50.537 | Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 50.199 | Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 50.153 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
| 50.129 | What will be the lowest US unemployment rate in 2022? | Continuous |
| 49.800 | When will the percentage of Virginians who have received a booster dose exceed 50%? | Continuous |
| 49.518 | Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 49.501 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Brooklyn Nets) | Binary |
| 49.500 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Houston Rockets) | Binary |
| 48.997 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (GUE-NGL) | Binary |
| 48.547 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 48.533 | Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025? | Binary |
| 48.263 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 48.236 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota) | Binary |
| 48.014 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 48.009 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas) | Binary |
| 47.798 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 47.735 | Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025? | Binary |
| 47.659 | Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025? | Binary |
| 47.583 | Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022? | Binary |
| 47.364 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 47.345 | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 46.972 | Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023? | Binary |
| 46.848 | Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025? | Binary |
| 46.817 | Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 46.468 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 46.427 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 46.238 | Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 46.156 | Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 46.085 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Toronto Raptors) | Binary |
| 46.085 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Utah Jazz) | Binary |
| 45.956 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 45.941 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 45.818 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Renew) | Binary |
| 45.688 | Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? | Binary |
| 45.628 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election? | Binary |
| 45.563 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 45.497 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Ko Wen-je (TPP)) | Binary |
| 45.459 | What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022? | Continuous |
| 45.447 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
| 45.086 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 45.072 | In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results? | Binary |
| 45.010 | Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024? | Binary |
| 44.984 | Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta? | Binary |
| 44.983 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 44.882 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Charlotte Hornets) | Binary |
| 44.687 | How many weeks will Virginia experience “widespread” influenza activity during the 2021-2022 flu season? | Continuous |
| 44.604 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
| 44.501 | Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025? | Binary |
| 44.495 | Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025? | Binary |
| 44.489 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 44.487 | Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 44.428 | What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US, in billions USD, in 2022? | Continuous |
| 44.313 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Ian Nepomniachtchi) | Binary |
| 44.268 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Memphis Grizzlies) | Binary |
| 44.206 | Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025? | Binary |
| 44.088 | Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election? | Binary |
| 43.696 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Chicago Bears) | Binary |
| 43.681 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 43.677 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Borussia Dortmund) | Binary |
| 43.546 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 43.130 | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 43.119 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
| 43.007 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Portland Trail Blazers) | Binary |
| 42.821 | Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
| 42.790 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 42.618 | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 42.566 | Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025? | Binary |
| 42.361 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Atlanta Falcons) | Binary |
| 42.298 | How much will a pound of fresh beef cost in cents in January 2023? | Continuous |
| 42.277 | Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024? | Binary |
| 42.260 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 42.200 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 42.145 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 42.057 | Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 42.010 | Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024? | Binary |
| 41.906 | Will India conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 Indian general elections? | Binary |
| 41.648 | Trump Removed or Blocked From Primary Ballot? (No) → 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 41.516 | What will Lebanon's Fragile States Index score be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 41.384 | Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 41.363 | Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025? | Binary |
| 41.318 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 41.050 | Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025? | Binary |
| 40.978 | By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 40.840 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Washington Wizards) | Binary |
| 40.780 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement? | Binary |
| 40.740 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 40.703 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Etienne Bacrot) | Binary |
| 40.703 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Yuriy Kuzubov) | Binary |
| 40.615 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Detroit Pistons) | Binary |
| 40.431 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Egypt-Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 40.253 | Will Meta's Horizon Worlds report more than 500,000 active users for any month of 2023? | Binary |
| 40.252 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (San Antonio Spurs) | Binary |
| 40.068 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
| 39.925 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 39.727 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire) | Binary |
| 39.709 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
| 39.709 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 39.709 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 39.492 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 39.492 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 39.445 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 39.445 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 39.431 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan) | Binary |
| 39.420 | Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025? | Binary |
| 39.145 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023? | Binary |
| 39.060 | Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022? | Binary |
| 38.857 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu) | Binary |
| 38.857 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hikaru Nakamura) | Binary |
| 38.774 | What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022? | Continuous |
| 38.301 | Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024? | Binary |
| 38.261 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Frank Pallone (D)) | Binary |
| 38.118 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Athletico Madrid) | Binary |
| 38.102 | Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks? | Binary |
| 37.927 | What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500? | Continuous |
| 37.917 | Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022? | Binary |
| 37.724 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (GUE-NGL) | Binary |
| 37.724 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ID) | Binary |
| 37.555 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024? | Binary |
| 37.525 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
| 37.525 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
| 37.384 | Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 37.306 | What will be the average unemployment in the US from January 2022 to December 2024? | Continuous |
| 37.305 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 37.305 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 37.061 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Hou Yu-ih (Kuomintang)) | Binary |
| 36.996 | Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 36.986 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexandr Predke) | Binary |
| 36.953 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas) | Binary |
| 36.953 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power) | Binary |
| 36.629 | Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023? | Binary |
| 36.526 | Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022? | Binary |
| 36.469 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Denver Broncos) | Binary |
| 36.369 | Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 36.172 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 36.157 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Vacant) | Binary |
| 36.157 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (NJ First Lady Tammy Murphy (D)) | Binary |
| 36.135 | Will 2022 be the hottest year on record? | Binary |
| 35.982 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024) | Binary |
| 35.906 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ECR) | Binary |
| 35.906 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Greens–EFA) | Binary |
| 35.906 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Renew) | Binary |
| 35.615 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 35.539 | Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session?? | Binary |
| 35.257 | What will be the British male life expectancy at birth in 2021 according to the UK Office of National Statistics? | Continuous |
| 35.238 | Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025? | Binary |
| 35.223 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| 35.086 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vladimir Fedoseev) | Binary |
| 35.084 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
| 35.084 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 35.052 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 34.898 | Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2023? | Binary |
| 34.886 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1) | Binary |
| 34.871 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Lai Ching-te (DPP)) | Binary |
| 34.769 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah) | Binary |
| 34.757 | Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 34.702 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New York Giants) | Binary |
| 34.557 | Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 34.111 | Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment? | Binary |
| 34.074 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 34.020 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Josh Gottheimer (D)) | Binary |
| 33.963 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Arizona Cardinals) | Binary |
| 33.943 | Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 33.830 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay-Argentina-Chile-Paraguay) | Binary |
| 33.563 | By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty? | Binary |
| 33.555 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023? | Binary |
| 33.527 | By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 33.305 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2) | Binary |
| 33.211 | Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 33.204 | Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025? | Binary |
| 33.188 | Will Libya hold a presidential election before 2025? | Binary |
| 33.156 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hans Niemann) | Binary |
| 33.155 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Fabiano Caruana) | Binary |
| 33.155 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nijat Abasov) | Binary |
| 33.155 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Arjun Erigaisi) | Binary |
| 33.111 | Will Erling Haaland score the most goals in the 2023/24 Premier League season? | Binary |
| 33.101 | Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly? | Binary |
| 33.095 | Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates? | Binary |
| 33.055 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 33.055 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace) | Binary |
| 33.020 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Carolina Panthers) | Binary |
| 32.980 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 32.980 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 32.980 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 32.980 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 32.940 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Brazil) | Binary |
| 32.840 | By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 32.828 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds) | Binary |
| 32.828 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds) | Binary |
| 32.744 | Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022? | Binary |
| 32.641 | Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025? | Binary |
| 32.638 | How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022? | Continuous |
| 32.188 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (S&D) | Binary |
| 31.850 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Donald Norcross (D)) | Binary |
| 31.850 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Bonnie Watson Coleman (D)) | Binary |
| 31.850 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Lt. Governor Tahesha Way (D)) | Binary |
| 31.730 | Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025? | Binary |
| 31.684 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Las Vegas Raiders) | Binary |
| 31.624 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Porto) | Binary |
| 31.557 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Vietnam) | Binary |
| 31.464 | By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 31.338 | Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024? | Binary |
| 31.246 | Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 31.197 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vishwanathan Anand) | Binary |
| 31.197 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nihal Sarin) | Binary |
| 31.197 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Maxime Vachier-Lagrave) | Binary |
| 31.197 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vincent Keymer) | Binary |
| 31.159 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Paris Saint-Germain) | Binary |
| 31.088 | Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person before 2023? | Binary |
| 30.910 | Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 30.876 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 30.854 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Inter Milan) | Binary |
| 30.767 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 30.767 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst) | Binary |
| 30.767 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
| 30.697 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 30.592 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Barcelona) | Binary |
| 30.256 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Ukraine-Morocco) | Binary |
| 29.890 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan) | Binary |
| 29.890 | How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 29.775 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lazio) | Binary |
| 29.733 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 29.645 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (State Senate Majority Leader Teresa Ruiz (D)) | Binary |
| 29.632 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Cleveland Browns) | Binary |
| 29.437 | Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022? | Binary |
| 29.428 | Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025? | Binary |
| 29.259 | Will 2022 be warmer than 2021? | Binary |
| 29.207 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexander Grischuk) | Binary |
| 29.207 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda) | Binary |
| 29.206 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vidit Gujrathi) | Binary |
| 29.205 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Levon Aronian) | Binary |
| 29.025 | Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023? | Binary |
| 28.972 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (United States) | Binary |
| 28.853 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 28.754 | Will Norway leave EEA before 2025? | Binary |
| 28.739 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 28.441 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
| 28.341 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New England Patriots) | Binary |
| 28.296 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Minnesota Vikings) | Binary |
| 28.286 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Napoli) | Binary |
| 27.912 | Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023? | Binary |
| 27.695 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Sociedad) | Binary |
| 27.601 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Arsenal) | Binary |
| 27.599 | How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2022? | Continuous |
| 27.525 | Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023? | Binary |
| 27.448 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Thailand) | Binary |
| 27.417 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (PSV) | Binary |
| 27.404 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Mikie Sherrill (D)) | Binary |
| 27.302 | Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023? | Binary |
| 27.183 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Amin Tabatabaei) | Binary |
| 27.183 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov) | Binary |
| 27.183 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Andre Esipenko) | Binary |
| 27.183 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Sam Sevian) | Binary |
| 26.870 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (RB Leipzig) | Binary |
| 26.755 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, optional) | Binary |
| 26.711 | Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023? | Binary |
| 26.625 | Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 26.566 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 26.388 | Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022? | Binary |
| 26.240 | Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 26.155 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Jacksonville Jaguars) | Binary |
| 26.011 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Copenhagen) | Binary |
| 25.838 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake) | Binary |
| 25.639 | Will an act such as the JCPA significantly strengthen US news companies' bargaining position before 2025? | Binary |
| 25.608 | Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023? | Binary |
| 25.509 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 25.501 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Tennessee Titans) | Binary |
| 25.439 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Pittsburgh Steelers) | Binary |
| 25.405 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (China) | Binary |
| 25.398 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa) | Binary |
| 25.296 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 25.129 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Richard Rapport) | Binary |
| 25.126 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Andy Kim (D)) | Binary |
| 24.834 | Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 24.642 | Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 24.538 | What will the price of oil be for December 2022? | Continuous |
| 24.446 | Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025? | Binary |
| 24.333 | Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta? | Binary |
| 24.296 | Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 24.178 | 5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 24.075 | Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023? | Binary |
| 24.007 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New Orleans Saints) | Binary |
| 24.007 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Seattle Seahawks) | Binary |
| 23.854 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Indianapolis Colts) | Binary |
| 23.751 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Bayern Munich) | Binary |
| 23.280 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| 23.040 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Magnus Carlsen) | Binary |
| 22.990 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Rams) | Binary |
| 22.928 | What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose as of 4 May 2022? | Continuous |
| 22.855 | Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious? | Binary |
| 22.846 | Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024? | Binary |
| 22.825 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Kansas City Chiefs) | Binary |
| 22.676 | Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections? | Binary |
| 22.498 | Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 22.263 | Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023? | Binary |
| 22.074 | Will any state hold a caucus instead of a primary for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2024? | Binary |
| 21.704 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate & House) | Binary |
| 21.670 | Will Tether collapse before 2025? | Binary |
| 21.469 | How many new building permits will be authorized in the SF metro area in 2022? | Continuous |
| 21.377 | Will a new highly-diamagnetic room-temperature material be found before 2025? | Binary |
| 21.335 | Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025? | Binary |
| 21.332 | In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state? | Binary |
| 21.283 | By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 21.028 | Will Oil Exports account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024? | Binary |
| 20.904 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel) | Binary |
| 20.452 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3) | Binary |
| 20.403 | Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024? | Binary |
| 20.373 | When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur? | Continuous |
| 20.243 | Will Belfast (2021) win the 2022 Best Picture Oscar? | Binary |
| 20.218 | Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025? | Binary |
| 20.153 | Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023? | Binary |
| 19.678 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 19.542 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska) | Binary |
| 19.458 | Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads? | Binary |
| 19.431 | Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025? | Binary |
| 19.310 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Chargers) | Binary |
| 19.127 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate, Dem House) | Binary |
| 18.640 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Shakhtar Donetsk) | Binary |
| 18.639 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Newcastle United) | Binary |
| 18.396 | Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (European Union) | Binary |
| 18.363 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Russia) | Binary |
| 18.313 | Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022? | Binary |
| 18.177 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester United) | Binary |
| 17.956 | When will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022? | Continuous |
| 17.843 | Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025? | Binary |
| 17.835 | Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025? | Binary |
| 17.823 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (EPP) | Binary |
| 17.759 | Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025? | Binary |
| 17.315 | Will a university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again? | Binary |
| 17.303 | Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? | Binary |
| 17.279 | Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 17.221 | Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 17.064 | Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023? | Binary |
| 16.899 | Will an additional state join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 16.799 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Inflection) | Binary |
| 16.766 | Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 16.611 | Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
| 16.605 | Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled? | Binary |
| 16.558 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Wesley So) | Binary |
| 16.399 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Washington Commanders) | Binary |
| 16.337 | Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections? | Binary |
| 15.984 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Meta) | Binary |
| 15.584 | Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)? | Binary |
| 15.532 | Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024? | Binary |
| 15.419 | Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024? | Binary |
| 15.395 | In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election? | Binary |
| 15.202 | What will the number of active volcanos be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 15.180 | Will average NAEP reading and math scores across 4th and 8th grades decline in 2024 compared to 2022? | Binary |
| 15.014 | What will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022? | Continuous |
| 14.887 | Will the UK and India have signed an FTA before the next UK General Election? | Binary |
| 14.861 | Will the Sacramento Kings advance to the second round of the NBA playoffs in 2024? | Binary |
| 14.836 | Will Sadiq Khan win re-election in the 2024 London Mayoral Elections? | Binary |
| 14.657 | Will the EPA grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025? | Binary |
| 14.551 | Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025? | Binary |
| 14.039 | Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023? | Binary |
| 13.424 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, optional) | Binary |
| 13.424 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, optional) | Binary |
| 13.336 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Google Deep Mind) | Binary |
| 13.283 | Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA before 2025? | Binary |
| 12.833 | Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025? | Binary |
| 12.649 | Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022? | Binary |
| 12.576 | How many influenza-associated pediatric deaths will there be in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season? | Continuous |
| 12.044 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alireza Firouzja) | Binary |
| 11.753 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Celtic) | Binary |
| 11.741 | Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022? | Binary |
| 10.887 | Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 10.772 | Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023? | Binary |
| 10.738 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Buffalo Bills) | Binary |
| 10.036 | By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis? | Binary |
| 9.879 | Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024? | Binary |
| 9.773 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (EPP) | Binary |
| 9.744 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Morocco) | Binary |
| 9.728 | Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (BJP) | Binary |
| 9.700 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 9.580 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (San Francisco 49ers) | Binary |
| 9.553 | Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 9.087 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina) | Binary |
| 8.813 | What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022? | Continuous |
| 8.518 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 8.492 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New York Jets) | Binary |
| 8.243 | How many migrants will die in 2022 trying to cross the Mediterranean? | Continuous |
| 8.207 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, not optional) | Binary |
| 8.086 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Dallas Cowboys) | Binary |
| 7.767 | Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 7.698 | Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (INC) | Binary |
| 7.689 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 7.674 | Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025? | Binary |
| 7.563 | Will Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024? | Binary |
| 7.501 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (AC Milan) | Binary |
| 7.250 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 7.240 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Braga) | Binary |
| 7.175 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? | Binary |
| 7.045 | Will the Pandemic and All Hazards Preparedness Act (PAHPA) be reauthorized for more than 4 years before April 1st, 2024, and December 31st, 2024? (2024 April 1) | Binary |
| 6.959 | If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 6.803 | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (K. Starmer (Labour)) | Binary |
| 6.801 | How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022? | Continuous |
| 6.797 | When will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022? | Continuous |
| 6.714 | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (R. Sunak (Tories)) | Binary |
| 6.588 | Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session? | Binary |
| 6.468 | Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025? | Binary |
| 6.390 | Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023? | Binary |
| 6.338 | By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? | Binary |
| 6.264 | Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023? | Binary |
| 6.228 | Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024? | Binary |
| 6.166 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Galatasaray) | Binary |
| 6.130 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester City) | Binary |
| 6.011 | What will US inflation be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 6.006 | Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022? | Binary |
| 5.886 | Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023? | Binary |
| 5.731 | Will the "Moon Cube" be shown to be non-natural before 2023? | Binary |
| 5.579 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (S&D) | Binary |
| 5.524 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, not optional) | Binary |
| 5.237 | Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Binary |
| 5.130 | Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams? | Binary |
| 4.995 | Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025? | Binary |
| 4.961 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Futbol Club Barcelona) | Binary |
| 4.960 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Internacional de Fútbol Miami) | Binary |
| 4.960 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Al-Hilal Saudi Football Club) | Binary |
| 4.960 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Manchester City Football Club) | Binary |
| 4.960 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Atlético Newell's Old Boys) | Binary |
| 4.921 | Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 4.905 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Cincinnati Bengals) | Binary |
| 4.621 | Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024? | Binary |
| 4.586 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Miami Dolphins) | Binary |
| 4.566 | Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025? | Binary |
| 4.417 | Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 4.403 | Will Ursula von der Leyen be re-appointed as President of the European Commission following the 2024 European elections? | Binary |
| 4.362 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lens) | Binary |
| 4.328 | Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022? | Binary |
| 4.260 | What will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022? | Continuous |
| 4.224 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Sevilla) | Binary |
| 4.182 | What retail market share will plant-based milk make up of the total milk category in the US in 2022? | Continuous |
| 3.686 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Feyenoord) | Binary |
| 3.648 | Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 3.645 | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
| 3.531 | Will a major political party leave the I.N.D.I.A. alliance before the next Indian general election? | Binary |
| 3.443 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella) | Binary |
| 3.287 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever) | Binary |
| 3.287 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt) | Binary |
| 3.277 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Crvena Zvezda) | Binary |
| 3.245 | Will India sign the Artemis Accords before 2025? | Binary |
| 3.129 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy) | Binary |
| 2.792 | What will South Africa's Fragile States Index score be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 2.738 | How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in April 2022? | Continuous |
| 2.694 | Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024? | Binary |
| 2.517 | What will Rivian's market cap be at the close of trading on 20 April 2022? | Continuous |
| 2.448 | Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election? | Binary |
| 2.337 | Will UK inflation as expressed by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) exceed 4% before 31 December 2021? | Binary |
| 2.317 | What will be the ratio of 2022 to 2021 average global interest in vertical farming? | Continuous |
| 2.300 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati) | Binary |
| 2.076 | Will Threads support ActivityPub before 2025? | Binary |
| 2.061 | When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable cases occur? | Continuous |
| 1.976 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Young Boys) | Binary |
| 1.734 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan? | Binary |
| 1.596 | Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (United States) | Binary |
| 1.281 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023? | Binary |
| 0.898 | In 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent, will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate? | Binary |
| 0.864 | Will the Council of the European Union adopt the proposed expansion to climate-focused export credits before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.712 | What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based eggs be in the U.S. in 2022? | Continuous |
| 0.617 | Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024? | Binary |
| 0.510 | Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 0.458 | Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 0.285 | Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.232 | When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring? | Continuous |
| 0.200 | Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11? | Binary |
| 0.058 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Antwerp) | Binary |
| 0.034 | Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.016 | Will a Navy ship be captured, scuttled, sunk, or critically damaged in the Black Sea before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.016 | Will the gray wolf be relisted as Threatened or Endangered by the US before 2030? | Binary |
| 0.005 | What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based foods in the U.S. be in 2022? | Continuous |
| - | Will Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili experience a significant leadership disruption before the next scheduled election? | Binary |
| - | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Meta) | Binary |
| - | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Google Deep Mind) | Binary |
| - | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman) | Binary |
| - | Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| -0.000 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Inflection) | Binary |
| -0.000 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| -0.526 | Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026? | Binary |
| -0.623 | Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024? | Binary |
| -1.081 | Will the ANC receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election? | Binary |
| -1.280 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate, Rep House) | Binary |
| -1.310 | Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023? | Binary |
| -1.527 | Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match? | Binary |
| -1.660 | Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections? | Binary |
| -2.140 | Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024? | Binary |
| -2.683 | Will Gary Gensler be subpoenaed by Congress before 2025? | Binary |
| -2.693 | Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| -2.729 | Will the Pandemic and All Hazards Preparedness Act (PAHPA) be reauthorized for more than 4 years before April 1st, 2024, and December 31st, 2024? (2024 Dec 31) | Binary |
| -2.862 | Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023? | Binary |
| -2.891 | What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022? | Continuous |
| -3.150 | Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (China) | Binary |
| -3.683 | Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023? | Binary |
| -3.686 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| -3.692 | Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025? | Binary |
| -4.282 | Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025? | Binary |
| -5.284 | Will at least 3 months of third party safety evaluations be conducted on Gemini before its deployment? | Binary |
| -5.472 | Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics? | Binary |
| -5.809 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (India) | Binary |
| -6.064 | By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| -6.344 | Will there be any further delay to the Libor cessation in 2023? | Binary |
| -6.892 | Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025? | Binary |
| -7.305 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia) | Binary |
| -7.965 | Will Spain announce a snap general election before March 2024? | Binary |
| -8.370 | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023) | Binary |
| -8.595 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Detroit Lions) | Binary |
| -8.793 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| -8.880 | Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| -9.821 | Will Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024? | Binary |
| -9.845 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
| -9.845 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada) | Binary |
| -9.845 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona) | Binary |
| -10.536 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| -11.136 | Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025? | Binary |
| -12.729 | Will Johnathan Davis be re-elected at the 2024 ACT election? | Binary |
| -13.115 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Baltimore Ravens) | Binary |
| -13.862 | Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024? | Binary |
| -14.598 | Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022? | Binary |
| -14.946 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| -15.526 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -16.051 | Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before 2025? | Binary |
| -16.154 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Anish Giri) | Binary |
| -16.957 | Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| -17.382 | By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be "alive"? | Binary |
| -18.790 | Will the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war be publicly available by 2023? | Binary |
| -18.993 | Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (Israel) | Binary |
| -19.247 | Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
| -20.465 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Senator Bob Menendez (D)) | Binary |
| -20.820 | Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023? | Binary |
| -23.094 | Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025? | Binary |
| -25.178 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
| -25.336 | Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025? | Binary |
| -26.346 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
| -27.690 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Philadelphia Eagles) | Binary |
| -28.597 | [short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022? | Binary |
| -30.040 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House) | Binary |
| -30.260 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Madrid) | Binary |
| -30.921 | Will the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act (DCCPA) be passed before 2025? | Binary |
| -31.429 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested) | Binary |
| -31.800 | Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates? | Binary |
| -32.077 | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
| -34.680 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Gukesh Dommaraju) | Binary |
| -35.551 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan) | Binary |
| -35.668 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| -36.580 | Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023? | Binary |
| -38.386 | How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022? | Continuous |
| -40.457 | In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received? | Binary |
| -42.013 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | Binary |
| -42.173 | Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -43.585 | Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024? | Binary |
| -45.528 | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | Binary |
| -46.124 | Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022? | Binary |
| -46.605 | Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform? | Binary |
| -49.493 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Green Bay Packers) | Binary |
| -53.304 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| -56.815 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Houston Texans) | Binary |
| -57.730 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| -61.035 | Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022? | Binary |
| -77.552 | Will the right-wing incumbent BJP win the 2024 national election in India? | Binary |
| -155.353 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Boston Celtics) | Binary |