uganda

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2022

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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6.374k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
97.948	Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?	Binary
97.925	Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?	Binary
97.647	Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
95.974	Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?	Binary
95.327	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
95.327	Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
94.062	Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?	Binary
93.259	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?	Binary
93.085	Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
92.406	[Short fuse]: Will Russia assume responsibility and apologize for the Przewodów strike before December?	Binary
92.369	Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
91.185	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?	Binary
90.701	By December 31, 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?	Binary
87.220	Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
87.078	Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
86.659	What percentage of monkeypox cases in California will be among cisgender men who are gay/same-gender loving or bisexual?	Continuous
84.876	Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
84.338	Will a cyber action or series of cyber actions trigger NATO’s Article 5 in 2022?	Binary
83.864	Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?	Binary
82.119	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?	Binary
80.707	Will Beto O'Rourke win the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election?	Binary
80.366	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
79.048	Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?	Binary
78.217	Will Leondra Kruger be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
77.473	Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
76.726	Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?	Binary
74.000	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?	Binary
72.647	Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
70.017	Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?	Binary
68.425	How many US troops will be in Europe on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
67.281	Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022?	Binary
67.083	Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?	Binary
65.686	Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022?	Binary
64.916	Before 2023, will Joe Biden announce that he will not run for president in 2024?	Binary
64.128	Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?	Binary
63.987	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?	Binary
63.263	What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of August 31, 2022?	Continuous
62.840	Will Ukraine acknowledge having fired the missile that killed two people in Przewodów, Poland, before 2023?	Binary
62.434	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
62.295	Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
62.187	Will Xi Jinping be re-elected paramount leader in 2022?	Binary
61.766	How many people in Russia will be arrested for participating in anti-war protests before 2023?	Continuous
61.739	How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in 2022?	Continuous
61.385	Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?	Binary
59.490	Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev exit the Presidency of Kazakhstan in 2022?	Binary
58.802	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?	Binary
58.776	Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
58.108	Will EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
56.813	By February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope successfully see First Light?	Binary
55.751	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Jul 24, 2022)	Continuous
54.945	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Aug 21, 2022)	Continuous
54.508	If Russia vetoes the UN Security Council vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, will the UN General Assembly override the veto?	Binary
53.790	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023?	Binary
53.549	Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022?	Binary
53.068	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Sajid Javid)	Binary
53.068	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Grant Shapps)	Binary
53.068	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Kemi Badenoch)	Binary
53.068	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Suella Braverman)	Binary
53.068	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Dominic Raab)	Binary
53.068	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Steve Baker)	Binary
53.068	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Nadhim Zahawi)	Binary
53.068	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Ben Wallace)	Binary
51.754	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Jan 22)	Continuous
51.527	Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?	Binary
48.974	Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
48.930	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Max Verstappen)	Binary
46.442	Will Ron DeSantis be re-elected as Governor of Florida in 2022?	Binary
45.664	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 4th, 2022?	Continuous
45.524	Will the US claim that a Russian disinformation campaign attempted to influence the 2022 midterm elections?	Binary
43.321	Will Princeton cancel in person classes in January 2022?	Binary
43.103	Will there be an armed conflict in the South China Sea before 2023?	Binary
42.588	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Lewis Hamilton)	Binary
42.588	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (George Russell)	Binary
42.587	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Carlos Sainz)	Binary
42.587	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Sergio Perez)	Binary
42.320	Will Russian or Belarusian troops cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts before 2023?	Binary
42.023	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (May 29, 2022)	Continuous
41.707	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Feb 5)	Continuous
40.795	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (May 1, 2022)	Continuous
40.550	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Jul 24, 2022)	Continuous
39.573	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Penny Mordaunt)	Binary
39.573	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Tom Tugendhat)	Binary
39.573	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
39.573	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Priti Patel)	Binary
39.573	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
39.573	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Michael Gove)	Binary
39.536	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Charles Leclerc)	Binary
37.945	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Aug 21, 2022)	Continuous
37.377	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Jan 22)	Continuous
37.338	Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
37.183	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 1st of April, 2022?	Continuous
35.348	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?	Binary
34.851	Will a Republican be elected governor of Maryland in 2022?	Binary
34.714	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on April 1, 2022?	Continuous
34.354	How many civilian casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War will there be before May 2022?	Continuous
34.324	What will be the reported number of 7-day average new Covid-19 cases in Mainland China on 2022-02-28?	Continuous
34.052	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Liz Truss)	Binary
34.051	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
33.375	Will Queen Elizabeth II abdicate in 2022?	Binary
33.307	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Jan 22)	Continuous
33.172	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Jun 26, 2022)	Continuous
32.559	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 11th, 2022?	Continuous
31.706	Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
31.521	How many Virginia counties will have their COVID-19 Community Level classified as 'High' as of April 14th update?	Continuous
31.262	Will Twitter's board accept an acquisition offer from someone other than Elon Musk before 2023?	Binary
31.214	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (May 29, 2022)	Continuous
31.149	Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
30.867	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
30.635	Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022?	Binary
30.271	Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?	Binary
30.096	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (May 1, 2022)	Continuous
30.004	Will Éric Zemmour be in the 2nd round of the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
29.677	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on February 11th, 2022?	Continuous
27.887	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Alex Jones)	Binary
27.708	Who will win the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election? (George Wajackoyah)	Binary
27.058	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on Feb, 11 2022?	Continuous
26.916	What will be Virginia’s weekly peak of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 May 2022?	Continuous
26.797	What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in December 2022?	Continuous
26.310	Will the US Government designate Russia a "State Sponsor of Terrorism" by 2023?	Binary
26.101	How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022?	Continuous
25.359	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Feb 5)	Continuous
25.002	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?	Binary
24.789	Will average semiconductor chip lead times (amount of time between order and delivery) drop to below 15 weeks at any point before July 1, 2022?	Binary
24.644	Who will win the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election? (David Waihiga Mwaure)	Binary
24.262	Will Ukraine win the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest?	Binary
23.399	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Feb 5)	Continuous
23.261	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
23.069	Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022?	Binary
23.029	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Jan 22)	Continuous
21.672	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Feb 5)	Continuous
21.419	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 11th of February, 2022?	Continuous
20.933	Will a new zero day vulnerability be exploited against and result in the compromise of 100 million Americans’ personal information by June 30, 2022?	Binary
19.091	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
18.933	Will an Eliciting Latent Knowledge prize of $50,000 be awarded?	Binary
18.651	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022?	Continuous
18.535	What will be Putin's approval rating value 3 months after the potential invasion of Ukraine?	Continuous
16.942	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Feb 18, 2022?	Continuous
16.471	Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?	Binary
16.336	Will Ontario's Conservative Party (PC) win the a majority in the election on 2022-06-02?	Binary
16.051	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on April 1st, 2022?	Continuous
15.963	Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?	Binary
15.789	Will more than 20,000 people die within 28 days of a positive Covid test in the UK in 2022?	Binary
14.425	Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?	Binary
13.643	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Jan 28, 2022?	Continuous
13.256	How many border crossings leaving Ukraine will there be in 2022?	Continuous
11.083	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 28th of January, 2022?	Continuous
10.703	What will the estimated cybersecurity workforce gap for the United States be on October 15, 2022?	Continuous
10.681	If Russia invades Ukraine in 2022, when will the invasion be acknowledged by Russia or the UN?	Continuous
10.457	Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
10.122	[short-fuse] Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
10.024	Will there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)?	Binary
9.172	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 15h of April, 2022?	Continuous
8.847	Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?	Binary
8.844	Will Raphael Warnock be re-elected in the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia?	Binary
8.171	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Laura Loomer)	Binary
6.542	Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023?	Binary
6.298	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022?	Continuous
6.262	What will be the 7-day average of % people wearing masks most or all of the time in public in Virginia on April 15th, 2022?	Continuous
6.008	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Marjorie Taylor Greene)	Binary
4.947	Will Éric Zemmour win the French presidential election in 2022?	Binary
4.804	Will Jaedon Whyte qualify for the USA IMO team before 2023?	Binary
4.717	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in the United States as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
4.355	Will Omicron XE be the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the US before June 19, 2022?	Binary
4.342	Will it become public that the United States launched a cyber attack between Jan 1, 2022 and April 30, 2022 against infrastructure associated with Russian cyber operators or proxies?	Binary
4.331	Who will win the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election? (Raila Odinga)	Binary
4.156	Will Gotabaya Rajapaksa no longer be the President of Sri Lanka before 2023?	Binary
4.083	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Jan 22)	Continuous
3.634	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
3.625	Will the Buffalo Bills play in Super Bowl LVI?	Binary
3.502	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on April 22nd, 2022?	Continuous
3.274	What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (September 1, 2022)	Continuous
2.565	Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan in 2022?	Binary
2.362	When will China end Covid Zero?	Continuous
2.355	Will there be a female Fields Medalist in 2022?	Binary
2.277	Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
2.092	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Houston Astros)	Binary
2.092	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Philadelphia Phillies)	Binary
1.834	Will the US sanction Russian oil or gas before 2023?	Binary
1.138	Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	Binary
0.353	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Feb 5)	Continuous
-	Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022?	Binary
-0.684	If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023?	Binary
-1.902	By December 31, 2022, will Twitter agree to be taken private by Elon Musk?	Binary
-2.089	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Feb 5)	Continuous
-4.788	Who will win the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election? (William Ruto)	Binary
-5.899	What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (November 1, 2022)	Continuous
-6.302	Will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) exceed 60 on any single day in 2022?	Binary
-10.665	Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-14.216	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Tila Tequila)	Binary
-16.642	Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?	Binary
-18.650	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Jun 26, 2022)	Continuous
-20.390	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Jared Taylor)	Binary
-21.794	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny))	Binary
-23.777	Will the study “Knowledge about others reduces one’s own sense of anonymity” (Nature, 2022) replicate?	Binary
-25.227	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Milo Yiannopoulos)	Binary
-27.007	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
-28.372	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-30.196	Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022?	Binary
-35.865	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Jan 22)	Continuous
-36.833	Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-43.785	Will the UK authorise fourth doses of Covid vaccines for healthy adults in 2022?	Binary
-50.452	What will total NATO defense spending be in 2022?	Continuous
-54.809	Before 2022-04-01, will martial law be on in any five federal subjects of Russia excluding all the territories annexed after 2013?	Binary
-56.060	[short fuse] Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in 2022?	Binary
-57.465	How many additional Eliciting Latent Knowledge prizes will be awarded?	Continuous
-73.124	Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022?	Binary
-114.000	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “The welfare of robots/AIs is one of the most important social issues in the world today.”?	Continuous
-121.631	What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (January 1, 2023)	Continuous