| 187.513 | What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 113.839 | How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 107.988 | How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024? | Continuous |
| 105.808 | What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive? | Continuous |
| 98.990 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 98.705 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 98.352 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 97.914 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government) | Binary |
| 97.857 | Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 97.798 | Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025? | Binary |
| 97.464 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 96.726 | Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025? | Binary |
| 96.628 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Microsoft) | Binary |
| 96.628 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Sam Altman) | Binary |
| 96.628 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Sam Altman against OpenAI) | Binary |
| 96.597 | Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025? | Binary |
| 96.401 | Which Republican candidate will win the most delegates on Super Tuesday? | Multiple Choice |
| 96.349 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 95.913 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Government antitrust against Microsoft) | Binary |
| 95.880 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 95.856 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 95.767 | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
| 95.759 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power) | Binary |
| 95.528 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
| 95.328 | Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025? | Binary |
| 95.002 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 95.002 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 95.002 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 94.972 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 94.961 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 94.903 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 94.809 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 94.529 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 94.357 | Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 94.299 | If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day? | Binary |
| 94.016 | Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 93.955 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 93.920 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
| 93.774 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
| 93.630 | Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 93.461 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah) | Binary |
| 92.773 | Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023? | Binary |
| 92.735 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 92.604 | Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly? | Binary |
| 92.544 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 92.239 | Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 92.065 | Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 91.765 | Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU? | Binary |
| 91.687 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 91.638 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas) | Binary |
| 91.268 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
| 89.382 | Trump Removed or Blocked From Primary Ballot? (No) → 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 89.332 | Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023? | Binary |
| 89.113 | Which country will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics? | Multiple Choice |
| 89.086 | Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 89.057 | Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 87.725 | Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022? | Binary |
| 86.937 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 86.168 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Ian Nepomniachtchi) | Binary |
| 86.168 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Fabiano Caruana) | Binary |
| 86.168 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu) | Binary |
| 86.156 | How many total arm sales to Taiwan will the US State Department approve between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 84.957 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 84.505 | Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| 84.343 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
| 84.141 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hikaru Nakamura) | Binary |
| 83.962 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 83.785 | Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 83.695 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vidit Gujrathi) | Binary |
| 83.576 | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 83.031 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 82.889 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 82.640 | Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025? | Binary |
| 82.382 | Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 82.224 | By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 81.841 | Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023? | Binary |
| 81.794 | Will 2022 be the hottest year on record? | Binary |
| 81.754 | What percentage of black voters will vote for a Republican president in the 2024 US presidential election? | Continuous |
| 81.468 | Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024? | Binary |
| 81.377 | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 80.878 | Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025? | Binary |
| 80.291 | Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? | Binary |
| 79.787 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
| 79.572 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 79.309 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 78.661 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI investors against OpenAI board) | Binary |
| 77.893 | Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 77.757 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 76.958 | Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 76.833 | Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 76.518 | Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 75.732 | Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 74.755 | Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025? | Binary |
| 74.526 | Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025? | Binary |
| 74.200 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nijat Abasov) | Binary |
| 73.637 | Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025? | Binary |
| 73.482 | Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 73.415 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 73.196 | By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 73.002 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 72.795 | What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 72.224 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
| 72.224 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
| 72.153 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
| 72.085 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023? | Binary |
| 69.850 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 69.682 | Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 69.350 | Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022? | Binary |
| 68.796 | Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023? | Binary |
| 68.371 | Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 67.426 | Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 67.344 | What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022? | Continuous |
| 67.252 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 67.123 | Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? | Binary |
| 67.042 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 66.386 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| 66.298 | How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 65.585 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 65.579 | How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022? | Continuous |
| 65.573 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 65.547 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 65.499 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 65.427 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
| 65.415 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
| 65.224 | Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023? | Binary |
| 65.167 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
| 65.056 | What will be the total number of air incursions into the ADIZ between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 65.000 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 64.900 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 64.693 | Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025? | Binary |
| 64.640 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 64.385 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 64.383 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 64.340 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
| 64.340 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
| 64.340 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 64.257 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 64.234 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
| 63.918 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1) | Binary |
| 63.102 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | Binary |
| 63.027 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
| 62.432 | Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 62.338 | Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta? | Binary |
| 62.311 | What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US, in billions USD, in 2022? | Continuous |
| 61.960 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
| 61.870 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 61.799 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 61.456 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 61.383 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 61.365 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas) | Binary |
| 61.328 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 60.085 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 59.444 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 58.277 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 56.205 | What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500? | Continuous |
| 56.089 | Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 55.859 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 55.512 | Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? (No) → 2024 US election considered fraudulent? | Binary |
| 55.446 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2) | Binary |
| 55.101 | How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue? | Continuous |
| 55.070 | Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta? | Binary |
| 54.488 | Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 54.216 | Will Oil Exports account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024? | Binary |
| 54.134 | By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 53.514 | Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 52.296 | Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 52.247 | Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025? | Binary |
| 51.006 | What will be the US Federal Funds Rate on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 50.918 | Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024? | Binary |
| 49.988 | When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human? | Continuous |
| 49.302 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
| 49.194 | How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 47.998 | How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"? | Continuous |
| 46.357 | Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
| 46.256 | Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections? | Binary |
| 45.598 | By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 45.324 | Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022? | Binary |
| 44.848 | Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled? | Binary |
| 43.137 | Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025? | Binary |
| 43.132 | Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022? | Binary |
| 42.877 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024) | Binary |
| 42.874 | Will an additional state join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 42.546 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 42.304 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement? | Binary |
| 41.278 | When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.? | Continuous |
| 41.025 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
| 39.884 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 39.648 | Will 2022 be warmer than 2021? | Binary |
| 39.161 | Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024? | Binary |
| 39.042 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3) | Binary |
| 38.415 | What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025? | Continuous |
| 38.201 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024? | Binary |
| 38.037 | Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 38.006 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 37.839 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Donald Trump) | Continuous |
| 37.187 | Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 37.081 | Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025? | Binary |
| 36.568 | Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023? | Binary |
| 36.255 | Will the UK and India have signed an FTA before the next UK General Election? | Binary |
| 35.922 | How many migrants will die in 2022 trying to cross the Mediterranean? | Continuous |
| 35.818 | Will Sadiq Khan win re-election in the 2024 London Mayoral Elections? | Binary |
| 35.598 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, optional) | Binary |
| 35.229 | Will the "Moon Cube" be shown to be non-natural before 2023? | Binary |
| 34.778 | Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 34.593 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
| 34.249 | What will the price of oil be for December 2022? | Continuous |
| 33.842 | What will be the percent SOL assessment pass rate in math for Virginian third graders in the 2021-2022? | Continuous |
| 32.861 | Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025? | Binary |
| 32.664 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 32.497 | Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022? | Binary |
| 31.830 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? | Binary |
| 30.509 | Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024? | Binary |
| 30.054 | Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022? | Binary |
| 29.534 | Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks? | Binary |
| 28.805 | Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 28.746 | Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025? | Binary |
| 28.108 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, not optional) | Binary |
| 27.438 | In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results? | Binary |
| 26.954 | By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? | Binary |
| 26.675 | How many gold medals will the United States win at the 2022 International Math Olympiad? | Continuous |
| 26.623 | What will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022? | Continuous |
| 26.518 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio) | Binary |
| 25.809 | Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models? | Binary |
| 25.668 | What is the %reduction in the secondary transmission of Delta from infected vaccinated individuals compared to infected unvaccinated individuals, according to the mean of the first 3 relevant studies? | Continuous |
| 25.571 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 25.535 | Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 25.513 | Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023? | Binary |
| 25.371 | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026? | Binary |
| 25.276 | What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022? | Continuous |
| 24.122 | By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis? | Binary |
| 23.828 | In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state? | Binary |
| 23.624 | Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024? | Binary |
| 23.403 | Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match? | Binary |
| 23.191 | When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO? | Continuous |
| 22.988 | If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 22.842 | Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025? | Binary |
| 22.442 | Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 21.881 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan? | Binary |
| 21.395 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 21.359 | Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (BJP) | Binary |
| 21.359 | Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (INC) | Binary |
| 20.659 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023? | Binary |
| 19.256 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 19.068 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 18.916 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2025? | Binary |
| 18.758 | Will Elon Musk face US federal criminal charges or an SEC civil complaint before 2026? | Binary |
| 16.973 | Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024? | Binary |
| 16.958 | What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID cases in the US between January 1, 2022 to April 1, 2022? | Continuous |
| 16.668 | What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID deaths in the US before 2022 April 1? | Continuous |
| 16.065 | What place will the United States get at the 2022 International Mathematical Olympiad? | Continuous |
| 15.589 | Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 14.054 | Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023? | Binary |
| 13.651 | Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023? | Binary |
| 13.452 | When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022? | Continuous |
| 13.152 | Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before 2025? | Binary |
| 12.697 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Nikki Haley) | Continuous |
| 12.644 | Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31? | Binary |
| 12.644 | Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023? | Binary |
| 12.583 | Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
| 11.799 | When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022? | Continuous |
| 11.731 | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2024) | Binary |
| 11.483 | What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022? | Continuous |
| 10.938 | When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers? | Continuous |
| 10.769 | Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment? | Binary |
| 9.969 | What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022? | Continuous |
| 9.392 | What will President Joe Biden's net approval rating be on November 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| 8.789 | Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023? | Binary |
| 8.604 | How many emergency department overdose visits will there be in Q1 2022 in Virginia? | Continuous |
| 8.562 | Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023? | Binary |
| 7.898 | Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022? | Binary |
| 7.662 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel) | Binary |
| 7.391 | Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024? | Binary |
| 7.196 | Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 7.110 | Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020? | Binary |
| 6.978 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati) | Binary |
| 6.906 | When will an LLM replace GPT-4 at the top of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard? | Continuous |
| 6.756 | How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| 6.301 | Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023? | Binary |
| 6.273 | Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections? | Binary |
| 6.200 | What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022? | Continuous |
| 5.959 | Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024? | Binary |
| 5.763 | Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025? | Binary |
| 5.721 | When will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space? | Continuous |
| 5.504 | When will Australia reach its 80% (of 16+ population) Covid-19 vaccination target? | Continuous |
| 5.125 | How many flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, make in its lifetime? | Continuous |
| 4.895 | What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022? | Continuous |
| 4.213 | What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2022? | Continuous |
| 4.201 | Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 4.136 | Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022? | Binary |
| 4.094 | Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates? | Binary |
| 3.837 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election? | Binary |
| 3.765 | When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users? | Continuous |
| 3.680 | How many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025? | Continuous |
| 3.479 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 3.403 | What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review? | Continuous |
| 3.182 | Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious? | Binary |
| 3.166 | Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 3.138 | Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024? | Binary |
| 3.031 | Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025? | Binary |
| 2.960 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman) | Binary |
| 2.829 | Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024? | Binary |
| 2.759 | UN Troops In Gaza (No) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 2.339 | What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 21st of January, 2022? | Continuous |
| 2.222 | Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022? | Binary |
| 1.958 | Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023? | Binary |
| 1.840 | When will US office workplace occupancy reach >50% of pre-pandemic levels? | Continuous |
| 1.664 | Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session?? | Binary |
| 1.574 | How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023? | Continuous |
| 1.396 | What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022? | Continuous |
| 1.349 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| 1.246 | In 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent, will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate? | Binary |
| 1.239 | Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025? | Binary |
| 1.213 | What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016? | Continuous |
| 1.050 | When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100? | Continuous |
| 0.989 | Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 0.978 | When will New Zealand reopen for quarantine-free international travel? | Continuous |
| 0.931 | Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026? | Binary |
| 0.841 | Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session? | Binary |
| 0.803 | Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11? | Binary |
| 0.760 | Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023? | Binary |
| 0.716 | How many positive influenza specimens will be detected by the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System in the peak week for the Northern Hemisphere over the 2021-2022 flu season? | Continuous |
| 0.626 | How many eviction cases will be filed in Virginia in Q4 2021? | Continuous |
| 0.495 | When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring? | Continuous |
| 0.419 | Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022? | Binary |
| 0.302 | When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0? | Continuous |
| 0.214 | When will the Mars helicopter Ingenuity stop making successful flights for 6 months? | Continuous |
| 0.117 | Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election? | Binary |
| 0.084 | Will the Taliban capture downtown Kandahar before the start of Ramadan? | Binary |
| 0.063 | What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating? | Continuous |
| 0.022 | What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI? | Continuous |
| 0.007 | What will Rivian's market cap be at the close of trading on 20 April 2022? | Continuous |
| 0.001 | What will the total amount of worldwide venture capital funding in quantum computing be in 2022? | Continuous |
| - | By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| - | Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics? | Binary |
| -0.011 | What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021? | Continuous |
| -0.070 | What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months? | Continuous |
| -0.151 | Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023? | Binary |
| -0.534 | Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022? | Binary |
| -1.251 | If Elizabeth Holmes is convicted in Theranos fraud trial, how long will her sentence be? | Continuous |
| -1.398 | What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022? | Continuous |
| -2.137 | What will be the wheat price on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| -2.777 | If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen? | Continuous |
| -2.917 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| -3.780 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| -5.925 | Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| -11.040 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027? | Binary |
| -11.929 | What will US inflation be in 2022? | Continuous |
| -12.384 | What will China’s GDP be in 2023? | Continuous |
| -12.388 | Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
| -13.670 | Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| -15.295 | Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023? | Binary |
| -16.888 | Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025? | Binary |
| -17.187 | Will Dutch supermarket Albert Heijn still sell crompouces by April 30, 2024? | Binary |
| -17.290 | Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates? | Binary |
| -18.021 | Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023? | Binary |
| -18.143 | Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025? | Binary |
| -19.176 | What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| -28.074 | Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025? | Binary |
| -28.966 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
| -31.225 | What will be the minimum Antartic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -32.822 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested) | Binary |
| -36.007 | How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022? | Continuous |
| -37.299 | Will the US require and verify reporting of large AI training runs before 2026? | Binary |
| -48.782 | Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024? | Binary |
| -57.764 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House) | Binary |
| -60.753 | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | Binary |
| -63.148 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026? | Binary |
| -67.561 | Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| -80.178 | [short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022? | Binary |
| -137.683 | Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024? | Binary |
| -145.291 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -145.957 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| -147.661 | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
| -152.092 | Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| -167.658 | In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received? | Binary |
| -179.989 | What will be the US : China ratio for private investment in AI in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -188.893 | Will the right-wing incumbent BJP win the 2024 national election in India? | Binary |
| -202.977 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| -306.376 | Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform? | Binary |