chipsie

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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6.309k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
181.011	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
174.243	How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024?	Continuous
145.692	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
138.814	When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases fall below 1015?	Continuous
138.675	How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023?	Continuous
136.546	When will the CDC eliminate quarantine restrictions for close contacts of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
133.419	When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 hospitalizations fall below 49?	Continuous
129.905	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
115.951	How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
107.233	When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?	Continuous
106.283	What will Virginia's percent unemployment rate be in April 2022?	Continuous
103.456	When will the percentage of Virginians who have received a booster dose exceed 50%?	Continuous
97.506	How many influenza-associated pediatric deaths will there be in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
93.862	Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?	Binary
91.459	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
90.933	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
90.739	When will VDH’s frequency of COVID-19 case reporting switch to weekly or less?	Continuous
90.098	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
89.443	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
88.893	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
88.609	Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?	Binary
88.131	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022?	Continuous
87.519	Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?	Binary
87.308	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
85.204	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
84.087	Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?	Binary
82.666	How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
82.257	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
82.235	Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?	Binary
81.447	How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?	Continuous
80.699	Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025?	Binary
80.696	Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?	Binary
80.470	When will total nonfarm employees in Virginia exceed 4 million?	Continuous
80.307	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
79.665	By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?	Binary
78.261	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
78.131	Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?	Binary
77.761	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
76.883	Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
76.723	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
76.617	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan)	Binary
76.466	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
74.925	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
74.805	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (China)	Binary
74.285	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
74.099	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
73.420	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
72.671	By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
72.139	By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
71.271	How many weeks will Virginia experience “widespread” influenza activity during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
70.765	How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023?	Continuous
69.629	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
69.508	By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
69.331	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
68.830	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?	Continuous
68.652	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
68.456	How many cultivated meat ventures there will be in 2022 according to the GFI State of Industry report for that year?	Continuous
67.327	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
66.998	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023?	Binary
66.831	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
66.794	By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
66.527	What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022?	Continuous
64.830	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Russia)	Binary
64.785	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Brazil)	Binary
64.730	Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?	Binary
62.834	Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023?	Binary
61.974	By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
60.366	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
60.128	When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.?	Continuous
59.273	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
58.272	Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?	Binary
55.383	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Vietnam)	Binary
54.126	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
53.085	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022?	Continuous
52.939	How many of Virginia's 133 communities will be experiencing moderate or higher levels of community transmission as of 7 March 2022?	Continuous
51.904	How many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023?	Continuous
50.766	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
49.423	Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?	Binary
49.140	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
47.970	Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Binary
47.666	What will the price of oil be for December 2022?	Continuous
46.870	Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?	Binary
46.222	When will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
46.173	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
46.004	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
44.786	What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
44.425	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
44.310	What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500?	Continuous
43.955	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID cases in the US between January 1, 2022 to April 1, 2022?	Continuous
42.749	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
41.578	Will Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024?	Binary
38.779	When will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
37.415	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Thailand)	Binary
36.582	Will a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022?	Binary
34.403	Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled?	Binary
34.055	What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review?	Continuous
32.335	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?	Binary
31.537	Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?	Binary
31.382	Will the "Moon Cube" be shown to be non-natural before 2023?	Binary
30.847	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
28.673	Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023?	Binary
27.620	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
27.386	Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?	Binary
26.852	How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023?	Continuous
26.264	How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?	Continuous
25.410	Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?	Binary
24.878	What will be the largest cultivated meat production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single facility by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
24.541	Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023?	Binary
24.516	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
23.761	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
21.638	Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?	Binary
19.909	When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
19.704	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?	Binary
19.254	Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?	Binary
18.222	Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
18.083	How many emergency department overdose visits will there be in Q1 2022 in Virginia?	Continuous
18.055	Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023?	Binary
14.903	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024?	Binary
12.744	Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
12.393	What retail market share will plant-based milk make up of the total milk category in the US in 2022?	Continuous
11.474	What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose as of 4 May 2022?	Continuous
11.246	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
8.947	Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
7.171	Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?	Binary
7.020	What will be the percent SOL assessment pass rate in math for Virginian third graders in the 2021-2022?	Continuous
6.060	Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?	Binary
6.059	Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023?	Binary
5.467	What will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
4.556	Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?	Binary
4.019	Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?	Binary
3.417	Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?	Binary
3.258	Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?	Binary
2.878	Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?	Binary
2.682	When will US office workplace occupancy reach >50% of pre-pandemic levels?	Continuous
0.708	When will Virginia's statewide mask mandate for K-12 schools be rescinded?	Continuous
0.368	Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?	Binary
0.152	What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?	Continuous
0.109	What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?	Continuous
-0.267	How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported globally in 2022?	Continuous
-0.717	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?	Continuous
-1.123	How many positive influenza specimens will be detected by the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System in the peak week for the Northern Hemisphere over the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
-1.778	What will the total amount of worldwide venture capital funding in quantum computing be in 2022?	Continuous
-3.035	When will the FDA authorize an oral antiviral treatment for SARS-CoV-2?	Continuous
-3.321	How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?	Continuous
-8.383	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-9.873	What percentage of US children under 5-years-old will have at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
-11.410	[Short Fuse] Will OSHA's Emergency Temporary Standard vaccine mandate be blocked or struck down by the US Supreme Court?	Binary
-12.025	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
-16.035	Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?	Binary
-19.004	Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?	Binary
-20.611	What will US inflation be in 2022?	Continuous
-21.347	What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
-27.145	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID deaths in the US before 2022 April 1?	Continuous
-29.269	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
-30.555	Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?	Binary
-36.278	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Ukraine)	Binary
-39.550	How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in April 2022?	Continuous
-39.823	Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023?	Binary
-41.096	By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
-41.130	How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022?	Continuous
-41.973	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House)	Binary
-43.860	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
-47.723	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
-48.439	What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area?	Continuous
-48.528	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
-51.936	Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?	Binary
-58.066	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
-72.337	How much total capital will be invested in plant-based foods companies through exits (IPOs, direct listings, mergers and acquisitions) in 2022?	Continuous
-74.079	Will the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war be publicly available by 2023?	Binary
-83.159	What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants?	Continuous
-85.023	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (India)	Binary
-133.966	Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?	Binary
-153.545	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 21st of January, 2022?	Continuous
-222.466	What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?	Continuous