145.710 | How much money will the FTX Foundation distribute in 2023? | Continuous |
124.929 | What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Min) | Continuous |
124.234 | What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 yellow maize - Min) | Continuous |
123.778 | What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (Thai AI super rice - Min) | Continuous |
122.434 | What will the world population be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
119.238 | What percent of Earth's land will be protected for wildlife on the following dates? (2025) | Continuous |
112.235 | What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 yellow maize - Max) | Continuous |
110.689 | What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (Thai AI super rice - Max) | Continuous |
110.214 | What will Virginia's percent unemployment rate be in April 2022? | Continuous |
110.012 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
107.430 | What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022? | Continuous |
106.089 | What will be the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
104.499 | What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Max) | Continuous |
99.536 | What place will the United States get at the 2022 International Mathematical Olympiad? | Continuous |
98.955 | How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022? | Continuous |
98.347 | Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025? | Binary |
97.424 | What will be the British male life expectancy at birth in 2021 according to the UK Office of National Statistics? | Continuous |
97.293 | Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? | Binary |
96.709 | Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025? | Binary |
95.900 | Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025? | Binary |
95.315 | When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable cases occur? | Continuous |
95.053 | Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023? | Binary |
94.931 | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
94.715 | Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025? | Binary |
93.760 | How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
93.672 | Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025? | Binary |
93.672 | Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
93.594 | What will be the lowest US unemployment rate in 2022? | Continuous |
93.543 | Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025? | Binary |
93.541 | What will be the lowest monthly value for US total capacity utilization in 2023? | Continuous |
93.443 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (United States) | Binary |
93.160 | When will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022? | Continuous |
91.745 | Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022? | Binary |
91.407 | Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023? | Binary |
91.051 | Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU? | Binary |
90.890 | Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020? | Binary |
89.691 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Brazil) | Binary |
89.147 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
88.567 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
88.451 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
88.318 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
88.150 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
87.837 | When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur? | Continuous |
87.816 | What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022? | Continuous |
87.473 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
87.008 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
86.778 | Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023? | Binary |
86.721 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
86.697 | Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
86.135 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025) | Binary |
85.875 | What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022? | Continuous |
85.321 | When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 hospitalizations fall below 49? | Continuous |
85.059 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
84.458 | Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023? | Binary |
83.257 | How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022? | Continuous |
83.084 | Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
82.582 | Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024? | Binary |
81.095 | Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023? | Binary |
80.861 | How much will a pound of fresh beef cost in cents in January 2023? | Continuous |
80.298 | Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023? | Binary |
79.649 | Will 2022 be the hottest year on record? | Binary |
79.491 | What will be the average unemployment in the US from January 2022 to December 2024? | Continuous |
78.737 | Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023? | Binary |
78.295 | Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta? | Binary |
77.170 | When will the percentage of Virginians who have received a booster dose exceed 50%? | Continuous |
76.706 | What will Rivian's market cap be at the close of trading on 20 April 2022? | Continuous |
75.027 | Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023? | Binary |
75.013 | What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
74.834 | What will be the average monthly rate of US workforce resignations in 2022? | Continuous |
74.412 | What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022? | Continuous |
73.475 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
73.264 | What will South Africa's Fragile States Index score be in 2022? | Continuous |
72.939 | Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025? | Binary |
72.669 | Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025? | Binary |
72.582 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025? | Binary |
72.513 | What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023? | Continuous |
72.222 | What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021? | Continuous |
71.060 | What will total oil demand globally be in 2021? | Continuous |
71.041 | Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
69.253 | Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
69.243 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | Binary |
67.920 | Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
67.847 | What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2022? | Continuous |
66.310 | Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta? | Binary |
64.857 | How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
64.737 | What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500? | Continuous |
64.691 | What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
64.611 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
64.258 | Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022? | Binary |
63.999 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
63.830 | What will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022? | Continuous |
63.648 | Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled? | Binary |
63.497 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
63.382 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
63.382 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
63.268 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
62.984 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
62.943 | What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID cases in the US between January 1, 2022 to April 1, 2022? | Continuous |
62.584 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
62.175 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
61.795 | Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025? | Binary |
61.461 | How many deaths from terrorism in 2020? | Continuous |
61.103 | What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022? | Continuous |
60.842 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
60.586 | Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024? | Binary |
60.319 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Thailand) | Binary |
60.238 | When will Australia reach its 80% (of 16+ population) Covid-19 vaccination target? | Continuous |
59.660 | Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022? | Binary |
59.122 | How much oil will Russia produce (in barrels per day) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
58.904 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
58.423 | How many migrants will die in 2022 trying to cross the Mediterranean? | Continuous |
58.181 | When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases fall below 1015? | Continuous |
57.609 | Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election? | Binary |
57.542 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (China) | Binary |
57.223 | When will Tigrayan forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa? | Continuous |
55.507 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
55.166 | When will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022? | Continuous |
53.989 | What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI? | Continuous |
53.981 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (March 31, 2024) | Continuous |
53.899 | What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (April 2024) | Continuous |
53.729 | Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023? | Binary |
53.643 | What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2022) | Continuous |
53.385 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
53.312 | How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2022? | Continuous |
52.131 | When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022? | Continuous |
51.391 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
51.319 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
50.730 | What will the total worldwide box office gross be for Avatar 2? | Continuous |
50.612 | When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.? | Continuous |
48.971 | What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022? | Continuous |
48.922 | What will be the UK's annual inflation rate in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
48.366 | Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
48.366 | Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
48.274 | What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (July 2024) | Continuous |
46.363 | What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID deaths in the US before 2022 April 1? | Continuous |
46.188 | Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
45.448 | Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
45.256 | How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022? | Continuous |
42.455 | Will Belfast (2021) win the 2022 Best Picture Oscar? | Binary |
41.955 | When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel? | Continuous |
41.821 | Will an additional state join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
41.564 | By what percentage will the total US yearly retail sales of plant-based meat in 2022 grow compared to 2020? | Continuous |
40.688 | Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023? | Binary |
40.099 | Will 2022 be warmer than 2021? | Binary |
39.083 | Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
38.292 | Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
38.211 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
36.913 | Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022? | Binary |
36.864 | Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023? | Binary |
35.662 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (December 31, 2024) | Continuous |
35.633 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (June 30, 2024) | Continuous |
35.478 | What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022? | Continuous |
34.447 | What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review? | Continuous |
34.064 | What will the price of oil be for December 2022? | Continuous |
33.962 | When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022? | Continuous |
33.263 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
31.785 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Vietnam) | Binary |
30.694 | When will the next German government be formed? | Continuous |
30.349 | What will the number of active volcanos be in 2022? | Continuous |
30.031 | Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022? | Binary |
29.667 | When will 100M doses of Moderna's Omicron-specific booster candidate or multi-valent booster candidates be distributed? | Continuous |
28.908 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Russia) | Binary |
28.789 | What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose as of 4 May 2022? | Continuous |
28.651 | What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD? | Continuous |
27.302 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (September 30, 2024) | Continuous |
27.258 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
26.450 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Bankman-Fried) | Binary |
25.891 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
25.759 | What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022? | Continuous |
24.926 | What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (October 2024) | Continuous |
22.435 | What will China’s GDP be in 2023? | Continuous |
19.886 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
18.524 | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023) | Binary |
17.600 | Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023? | Binary |
16.613 | What will US inflation be in 2022? | Continuous |
16.202 | What percentage of US children under 5-years-old will have at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
16.110 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
15.444 | Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
13.931 | How many flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, make in its lifetime? | Continuous |
13.032 | Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024? | Binary |
12.035 | How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (September 2024) | Continuous |
11.042 | When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers? | Continuous |
10.419 | What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022? | Continuous |
9.317 | Will the "Moon Cube" be shown to be non-natural before 2023? | Binary |
7.994 | What will be the Shiller P/E ratio of the S&P 500 on January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
7.972 | What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14? | Continuous |
7.257 | Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023? | Binary |
6.589 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
5.871 | Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session? | Binary |
5.802 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
4.066 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
2.969 | Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match? | Binary |
1.739 | By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? | Binary |
1.114 | When will New Zealand reopen for quarantine-free international travel? | Continuous |
1.038 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Nishad Singh) | Binary |
1.032 | When will a SpaceX Starship upper stage successfully land? | Continuous |
0.896 | What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (August 2024) | Continuous |
0.507 | When will the FDA authorize an oral antiviral treatment for SARS-CoV-2? | Continuous |
0.253 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Caroline Ellison) | Binary |
0.118 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Gary Wang) | Binary |
0.034 | Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
-0.177 | What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Jan-24) | Continuous |
-0.720 | Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024? | Binary |
-1.124 | Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years? | Binary |
-3.313 | What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Feb-24) | Continuous |
-9.198 | What will be the annual inflation in Latvia in 2022? | Continuous |
-9.629 | What will be the annual average seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
-11.004 | Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
-11.993 | Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023? | Binary |
-14.924 | Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025? | Binary |
-17.130 | Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025? | Binary |
-19.287 | Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics? | Binary |
-24.964 | [short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022? | Binary |
-26.117 | What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
-27.012 | What will be The Economist's estimated global excess deaths due to COVID-19 on January 1, 2023? | Continuous |
-33.725 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
-33.804 | When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100? | Continuous |
-37.782 | Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
-38.915 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Ukraine) | Binary |
-44.652 | When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths? | Continuous |
-53.404 | Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022? | Binary |
-63.103 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (India) | Binary |
-141.746 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
-156.626 | What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months? | Continuous |