| 177.817 | How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 165.267 | How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024? | Continuous |
| 129.529 | How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 113.394 | How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| 103.961 | How many active United Nations peacekeeping missions will there be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 102.716 | What will be the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 98.310 | Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 98.306 | Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024? | Binary |
| 98.297 | When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party? | Continuous |
| 96.582 | Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022? | Binary |
| 96.149 | Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 95.447 | Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 95.415 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 95.269 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | Binary |
| 94.528 | Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU? | Binary |
| 93.864 | Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 92.482 | Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023? | Binary |
| 88.932 | How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024? | Continuous |
| 88.309 | How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 87.907 | Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023? | Binary |
| 86.844 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 86.844 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 85.422 | What will the world population be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 84.472 | Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 82.883 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 81.689 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 80.838 | Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 80.254 | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 79.656 | Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022? | Binary |
| 78.755 | Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta? | Binary |
| 77.361 | What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 76.246 | Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 74.282 | Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 70.299 | By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 67.201 | By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty? | Binary |
| 66.940 | Will 2022 be the hottest year on record? | Binary |
| 66.735 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024? | Binary |
| 64.903 | What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 64.065 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 64.065 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 63.755 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 63.718 | By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 63.466 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 63.466 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 63.466 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 63.374 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 62.454 | Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 62.112 | What will the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth be in the G7 countries in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 61.844 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement? | Binary |
| 60.912 | Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 60.292 | What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review? | Continuous |
| 59.169 | By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 59.039 | How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 58.987 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 58.759 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan) | Binary |
| 58.459 | Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020? | Binary |
| 58.338 | Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 57.851 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 57.069 | 5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 56.845 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election? | Binary |
| 56.317 | What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 55.594 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan) | Binary |
| 53.696 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 53.683 | What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 53.669 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 53.484 | What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 49.662 | What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 48.988 | Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024? | Binary |
| 48.919 | By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 48.788 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
| 48.788 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
| 48.788 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
| 46.970 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 46.176 | Will an additional state join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 46.085 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023? | Binary |
| 45.828 | Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates? | Binary |
| 44.852 | What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 44.100 | When will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments? | Continuous |
| 43.632 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023? | Binary |
| 43.324 | What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 42.847 | What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022? | Continuous |
| 41.743 | How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 41.635 | Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023? | Binary |
| 40.346 | What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500? | Continuous |
| 39.882 | Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024? | Binary |
| 39.640 | How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| 39.257 | How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022? | Continuous |
| 37.360 | What percent of the world population will use the internet in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 33.922 | By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 33.043 | Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023? | Binary |
| 30.871 | What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 29.674 | Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads? | Binary |
| 28.589 | What will the price of oil be for December 2022? | Continuous |
| 26.846 | Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025? | Binary |
| 25.309 | Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024? | Binary |
| 24.250 | Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform? | Binary |
| 23.002 | How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023? | Continuous |
| 21.054 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 21.054 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 18.424 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
| 13.103 | Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023? | Binary |
| 13.034 | Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023? | Binary |
| 9.900 | Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 8.895 | Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 8.083 | Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
| 3.992 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat) | Continuous |
| 3.530 | What will US inflation be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 2.088 | Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024? | Binary |
| 1.947 | Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 1.518 | Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024? | Binary |
| 0.378 | Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023? | Binary |
| -0.176 | Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11? | Binary |
| -0.778 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -0.780 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -2.803 | What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -3.051 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour) | Continuous |
| -3.567 | Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025? | Binary |
| -7.975 | Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| -9.961 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative) | Continuous |
| -15.889 | By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| -16.670 | Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024? | Binary |
| -22.203 | What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| -25.283 | Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023? | Binary |
| -26.592 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| -28.435 | How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022? | Continuous |
| -30.462 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
| -32.690 | Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024? | Binary |
| -32.921 | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
| -43.461 | What will be the share of people living in countries where same-sex marriage is legal in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -45.965 | When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100? | Continuous |
| -49.172 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party) | Continuous |
| -53.452 | When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.? | Continuous |
| -72.936 | What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants? | Continuous |
| -100.679 | What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area? | Continuous |