kqr

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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7.769k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
168.019	How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
122.457	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Rescued or escaped)	Continuous
121.739	When will the next volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland begin?	Continuous
99.204	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
98.787	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
98.381	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
97.368	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
96.762	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
96.454	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
96.117	Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?	Binary
96.065	Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29?	Binary
95.699	Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
95.548	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
95.020	Will NASA re-establish communications with Voyager 1 before 1 Jan 2024?	Binary
94.678	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa)	Binary
93.950	Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?	Binary
93.711	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba)	Binary
93.395	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
91.635	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
91.269	Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?	Binary
91.034	Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
90.863	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
90.258	Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?	Binary
89.948	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
89.851	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (August 19)	Continuous
89.632	Will the ban on imports of Apple watches with blood oxygen sensors take effect before December 27, 2023?	Binary
89.053	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
88.976	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)	Binary
88.747	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
87.272	Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?	Binary
86.703	Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?	Binary
84.619	Russian Coup or Regime Change before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
84.390	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
83.467	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (England)	Binary
82.339	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
82.006	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
81.790	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Australia)	Binary
79.904	Will the winner of stage 9 of the 2023 Tour De France also hold the yellow jersey at the end of the stage?	Binary
77.404	ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023? (No) → Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023?	Binary
75.429	Will a mandatory evacuation order be issued for any area of Virginia related to any tropical cyclone in 2023?	Binary
75.175	Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?	Binary
75.116	Will Luisa González receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election?	Binary
74.490	What percentage of Virginia adults will be vaccinated against influenza by the week ending December 30, 2023?	Continuous
74.179	Will the Palestinian Authority declare itself bankrupt before the end of 2023?	Binary
73.144	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
72.652	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Colombia)	Binary
71.888	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
71.566	When will New York City’s period of consecutive rainy weekends end?	Continuous
70.837	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Sweden)	Binary
70.547	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
69.571	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (France)	Binary
69.336	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Japan)	Binary
68.994	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
68.184	Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?	Binary
67.849	Will a majority of voters approve Venezuela's referendum on incorporating Guayana Esequiba into Venezuela?	Binary
66.588	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Netherlands)	Binary
64.378	Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?	Binary
64.280	How many people will die in the Sudan conflict in 2023?	Continuous
63.975	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
63.599	Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?	Binary
63.453	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
63.411	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
61.939	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
61.885	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
61.882	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
61.154	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
61.008	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
60.870	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Morocco)	Binary
60.444	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
59.662	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2023?	Binary
58.818	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Jamaica)	Binary
57.305	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
55.999	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Nigeria)	Binary
55.667	How many refugee arrivals will Virginia have in US fiscal year 2023?	Continuous
55.642	How many days will the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in 2023?	Continuous
55.536	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
55.357	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Denmark)	Binary
54.885	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
53.993	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Africa)	Binary
53.393	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (September 2)	Continuous
52.519	Trump participates in first debate? (No) → Trump Polling Change Two Weeks After Debate?	Continuous
51.770	Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023?	Binary
51.547	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Switzerland)	Binary
50.690	Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023?	Binary
50.666	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
50.363	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Norway)	Binary
49.920	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
49.882	Will "Epidemiologists" be included on Virginia's next High Demand Occupation List?	Binary
48.490	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
47.139	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (United States)	Binary
45.921	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Korea)	Binary
44.825	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
44.623	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
44.332	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Germany)	Binary
44.085	What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) on December 30, 2023?	Continuous
43.785	How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy?	Continuous
43.717	What will NVIDIA's market cap be at the end of 2023?	Continuous
43.555	Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?	Binary
43.501	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
43.103	Will the Chinese team at the 64th International Math Olympiad be the top ranked team again?	Binary
43.082	How much will Donald Trump's Republican primary polling average change two weeks after the first debate?	Continuous
41.828	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Released by captor)	Continuous
41.821	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Brazil)	Binary
41.821	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Argentina)	Binary
41.714	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
41.669	What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023?	Continuous
41.465	Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR COVID-like illness (CLI) visits in Virginia during summer 2023 exceed the same peak during the preceding winter 2022-2023?	Binary
41.400	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Italy)	Binary
40.812	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?	Binary
39.710	Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize?	Binary
39.655	Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?	Binary
39.329	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Haiti)	Binary
39.329	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (China)	Binary
39.007	Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class?	Binary
38.278	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
38.130	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Portugal)	Binary
36.933	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
36.244	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Canada)	Binary
36.109	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?	Continuous
35.940	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
33.914	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
33.475	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (New Zealand)	Binary
33.160	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Philippines)	Binary
32.962	What will be the size of the 2024 EU Budget?	Continuous
32.941	When will the successor to Kevin McCarthy be elected as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives?	Continuous
32.583	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
32.002	What will the the total value of property damage (in US dollars) caused by tornados be in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
31.117	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Panama)	Binary
29.957	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
27.442	What will be the average partisan vote swing from 2020 to 2023 in state-level special elections held in the US before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
26.299	Will the Israeli High Court uphold the "reasonableness" law?	Binary
26.129	Will the Chandrayaan-3 lander soft-land on the moon?	Binary
25.347	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Republic of Ireland)	Binary
24.855	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Vietnam)	Binary
24.844	What percentage of the vote will Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Presidential Elections’ runoff?	Continuous
23.745	How much money (in US dollars) will GlobalGiving's Morocco Earthquake Relief Fund have raised on September 21, 2023?	Continuous
23.161	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
22.410	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Costa Rica)	Binary
22.410	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Zambia)	Binary
22.288	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
21.305	What will the price of November 2023 Dutch TTF natural gas futures (in Euros per megawatt-hour) be on September 29, 2023?	Continuous
21.082	Will the Conservatives hold on to their seat in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election?	Binary
20.241	Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?	Binary
20.004	Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended?	Binary
17.118	How many tornado segments will be reported in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
16.598	Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?	Binary
14.224	Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
13.350	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
11.821	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
11.632	Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023?	Binary
11.558	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
11.310	Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?	Binary
9.129	What percentage of the possession will the winning team have in the Women's World Cup Final?	Continuous
9.057	What rating will Bethesda's video game Starfield have on Steam two weeks after release?	Continuous
8.008	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
7.730	How many days will any region in Virginia experience coastal flood, high wind, hurricane, or tropical storm in 2023?	Continuous
7.623	Will the total number of people staying in NYC homeless shelters exceed 100,000 for any day of 2023?	Binary
4.163	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
4.043	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
3.530	Which week in late 2023 will have the highest percent of medical visits for Influenza-like Illness in Virginia?	Continuous
3.049	What place will Canada get in the 2023 International Math Olympiad?	Continuous
2.985	How many countries will have approved the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
2.828	Will the 'Ending Agricultural Trade Suppression' Act pass in the US House of Representatives by January 3, 2024?	Binary
2.668	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
2.578	When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water?	Continuous
2.338	Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?	Binary
2.206	Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?	Binary
2.022	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
1.940	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
1.903	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
1.853	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
1.843	What will be the worldwide 7-day rolling average of confirmed mpox cases for June 30, 2023?	Continuous
1.574	Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?	Binary
1.370	Will the German Train Drivers' Union (GDL) go on strike again before January 1, 2024?	Binary
1.359	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
0.199	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)	Binary
0.199	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Sergio Massa)	Binary
0.072	Will any additional Republican candidates for president drop out before 2024?	Binary
-0.059	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-0.844	What will be the total daily Heat Related Illness (HRI) visit counts in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
-1.003	Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)?	Binary
-6.212	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
-7.456	Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
-20.588	Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-22.298	Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2023?	Binary
-23.125	Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023?	Binary
-24.324	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
-26.104	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
-28.574	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-35.992	What percentage of wastewater treatment plants in Virginia will be in the higher or highest percentile groups for SARS-CoV-2 for the week ending November 26, 2023?	Continuous
-37.789	Will the MONUSCO UN peacekeeping mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo be extended with a military personnel ceiling above 11,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-44.022	What percentage of the vote will presidential candidate candidate Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Open Primaries Elections?	Continuous
-52.026	What will be the effective number of political parties in the Netherlands parliament following the 2023 election?	Continuous
-56.774	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
-122.255	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
-123.580	Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?	Binary
-177.834	Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
-315.000	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Spain)	Binary

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