Cosmic

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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8.208k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
132.022	When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water?	Continuous
123.245	When will bivalent booster uptake in Virginia's 65+ population exceed 50%?	Continuous
99.732	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
99.661	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
99.518	Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?	Binary
98.997	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
98.885	Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024?	Binary
98.757	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
98.226	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
98.153	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
98.152	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
98.009	Russian Coup or Regime Change before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
97.802	Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024?	Binary
97.427	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
97.152	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba)	Binary
96.821	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
96.715	Will Apple release a 15-inch MacBook Air at WWDC on June 5-9, 2023?	Binary
96.408	Will Russia assume the presidency of the UN Security Council on April 1, 2023?	Binary
95.884	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)	Binary
95.884	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa)	Binary
95.679	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (0)	Binary
95.676	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (0.5)	Binary
95.676	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (1.5)	Binary
95.665	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (0)	Binary
95.665	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (1)	Binary
94.630	In 2023, will a non-European team win the FIFA Club World Cup for the first time since 2012?	Binary
93.565	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
93.362	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
92.364	Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?	Binary
91.665	Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?	Binary
90.918	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
90.145	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
89.721	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
89.243	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
87.833	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
87.496	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
87.148	Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?	Binary
86.878	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?	Binary
86.784	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
86.742	Will Amritpal Singh be in Indian custody before April 21, 2023?	Binary
86.563	Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?	Binary
85.246	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
85.244	Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting?	Binary
84.691	What will be the total finishing time for the 2023 Boston Marathon winners (male and female combined)?	Continuous
84.576	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
84.460	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
83.865	Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023?	Binary
82.326	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (1)	Binary
82.326	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (2)	Binary
82.317	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (2)	Binary
82.317	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (3)	Binary
81.069	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
80.005	Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?	Binary
79.665	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Sweden)	Binary
79.523	Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?	Binary
79.164	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
78.923	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sundar Pichai)	Binary
78.923	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Dario Amodei)	Binary
78.923	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Demis Hassabis)	Binary
78.923	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Mark Zuckerberg)	Binary
78.923	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sam Altman)	Binary
78.837	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
78.697	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
78.422	Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?	Binary
78.415	Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
78.128	ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023? (No) → Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023?	Binary
78.022	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
75.974	Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2023?	Binary
74.212	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
72.369	Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?	Binary
71.979	Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?	Binary
71.338	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
71.063	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Colombia)	Binary
70.290	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
69.832	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (France)	Binary
69.808	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
68.865	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
68.743	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (All Other Teams Not Listed)	Binary
68.469	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
68.048	Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023?	Binary
67.703	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Japan)	Binary
67.545	Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?	Binary
66.996	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Netherlands)	Binary
66.735	Will Elizabeth Holmes be in prison on May 31, 2023?	Binary
66.675	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
65.974	Will there no longer be any authorized COVID therapeutic in the U.S. in 2023?	Binary
65.246	Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
64.704	Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22?	Binary
64.278	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
63.866	Will a country other than the United States shoot down a high-altitude object before the end of February, 2023?	Binary
63.347	Will either of last year's disc golf champions, Kristin Tattar or Calvin Heimburg, win 1st place in Jonesboro again this year?	Binary
62.147	What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023?	Continuous
62.052	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
60.499	Will Apple announce a Virtual Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
59.605	Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?	Binary
59.343	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
59.126	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Morocco)	Binary
58.994	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Dallas Stars)	Binary
58.932	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
58.882	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Jamaica)	Binary
58.110	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
58.070	Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
57.613	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
56.185	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Denmark)	Binary
55.937	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Nigeria)	Binary
54.664	When will the U.S. end the public health emergency for COVID-19?	Continuous
53.713	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Florida Panthers)	Binary
53.547	[Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023?	Binary
52.878	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
52.549	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
52.549	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
52.549	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
52.549	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
52.549	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
52.549	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)	Binary
52.549	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)	Binary
52.549	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
52.549	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)	Binary
52.549	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)	Binary
52.549	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)	Binary
52.549	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)	Binary
52.549	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)	Binary
52.549	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)	Binary
52.549	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
52.549	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
52.549	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
52.549	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
52.157	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Africa)	Binary
52.125	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
51.827	What will be the final value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2023?	Continuous
51.635	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
50.592	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
50.051	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Norway)	Binary
49.679	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Switzerland)	Binary
48.938	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Lakers)	Binary
48.725	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
48.184	Trump participates in first debate? (No) → Trump Polling Change Two Weeks After Debate?	Continuous
46.661	Will the Palme d'Or, the top prize at the 2023 Cannes Film Festival, be awarded to a film from a European country?	Binary
46.455	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
46.294	What will be the worldwide 7-day rolling average of confirmed mpox cases for June 30, 2023?	Continuous
46.111	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?	Continuous
45.873	Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023?	Binary
45.679	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
44.499	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
44.404	How many U.S. jurisdictions will experience "high" or "very high" influenza activity for the week ending January 21, 2023?	Continuous
43.979	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Korea)	Binary
43.697	How much money (in US dollars) will GlobalGiving's Morocco Earthquake Relief Fund have raised on September 21, 2023?	Continuous
42.780	Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29?	Binary
42.381	Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?	Binary
41.758	Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class?	Binary
41.570	Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?	Binary
41.376	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Italy)	Binary
41.128	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Brazil)	Binary
41.128	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Argentina)	Binary
40.620	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Ash Regan)	Binary
40.240	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
39.757	Will Luisa González receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election?	Binary
39.682	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (All other teams)	Binary
39.356	What will be the total burned area (in hectares) of the Canadian wildfires on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
38.526	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Haiti)	Binary
38.526	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (China)	Binary
37.907	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Portugal)	Binary
37.155	What will be the total number of fish that Fish Welfare Initiative (FWI) claims to have helped by 2024?	Continuous
35.555	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (New York Knicks)	Binary
35.304	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Canada)	Binary
34.803	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
34.069	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (New Jersey Devils)	Binary
33.967	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (August 19)	Continuous
33.886	How many tech employees will be laid off in 2023 by April 25th?	Continuous
33.778	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
33.587	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
32.735	How many individuals will the New York City Department of Homeless Services report as being "in shelter" on May 22nd, 2023?	Continuous
32.341	Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case?	Binary
32.173	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
32.082	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Philippines)	Binary
32.034	Will either the NBA Finals or the Stanley Cup Finals in 2023 go to a game 7?	Binary
32.006	How many moves will be played in the first four rounds of the Ding - Nepo FIDE World Chess Championship 2023?	Continuous
31.419	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (New Zealand)	Binary
30.885	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
30.786	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
29.453	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Panama)	Binary
27.555	Fed raises interest rates in June 2023? (No) → S&P 500 closing value on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
27.020	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (September 2)	Continuous
26.900	Will the EU Parliament endorse a negotiating mandate for the AI Act before June 16, 2023?	Binary
26.445	How many seats will the Nation Alliance be reported to win in the 2023 Turkish parliamentary election?	Continuous
25.311	How many goals will be scored in total across all four Champions League semifinal games in the 2022/23 season?	Continuous
24.955	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Denver Nuggets)	Binary
24.294	Will Sweden's Loreen win the Eurovision Song Contest 2023?	Binary
23.922	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Republic of Ireland)	Binary
23.408	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Vietnam)	Binary
22.202	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Kate Forbes)	Binary
22.202	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Humza Yusaf)	Binary
21.449	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
20.324	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
20.155	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Costa Rica)	Binary
20.155	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Zambia)	Binary
19.717	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
19.416	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
18.578	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Sacramento Kings)	Binary
18.265	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Golden State Warriors)	Binary
17.769	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
17.465	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (LA Kings)	Binary
17.319	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Tampa Bay Lightning)	Binary
17.270	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Toronto Maple Leafs)	Binary
16.930	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
16.878	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Phoenix Suns)	Binary
16.045	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Minnesota Wild)	Binary
15.881	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Memphis Grizzlies)	Binary
15.878	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
15.495	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
15.169	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
15.020	Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023?	Binary
14.315	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
13.362	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Clippers)	Binary
13.354	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Cleveland Cavaliers)	Binary
12.442	How many countries will have approved the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
11.763	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in January 2023?	Continuous
11.660	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
11.660	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
10.966	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
9.717	What percentage of the possession will the winning team have in the Women's World Cup Final?	Continuous
9.336	Will the statutory debt limit be increased or suspended for at least 30 days in the United States before 2024?	Binary
9.017	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Boston Celtics)	Binary
8.357	Will the OpenAI Tour 2023 plan to visit more than one African destination as of April 10th?	Binary
8.049	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?	Binary
7.931	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023)	Binary
7.493	Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?	Binary
6.390	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
6.264	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (NY Rangers)	Binary
6.102	Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?	Binary
5.936	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?	Binary
5.542	Will Virgin Orbit file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
4.641	Will ChatGPT have multiple tiers of capability before 2024?	Binary
4.395	Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season?	Binary
2.960	Will the Arctic sea ice extent be lower on each day of 2023 compared to that of 2012?	Binary
2.543	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary
2.079	Will there be more Antarctic sea ice on March 7, 2023 than there was on March 7, 2022?	Binary
1.638	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Colorado Avalanche)	Binary
1.462	How many total seats will the Pheu Thai and Move Forward parties win in the Thailand election?	Continuous
0.487	How many NCAA Division I schools will have both their men’s and women’s basketball teams make the 2023 NCAA Division I Basketball Tournament?	Continuous
0.427	[Short Fuse] Will Credit Suisse experience any of the following scenarios before May 2023?	Binary
-	Will the maiden flight of the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 launch successfully and on time?	Binary
-0.284	When will Joe Biden issue his third veto?	Continuous
-5.513	What percentage of the vote will presidential candidate candidate Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Open Primaries Elections?	Continuous
-5.530	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
-10.568	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (England)	Binary
-10.568	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Spain)	Binary
-10.897	Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?	Binary
-19.250	How many new forecasters will be in the top 20 of the Beginner Tournament at the end of the tournament?	Continuous
-19.941	Will the S&P 500 increase or decrease by more than 2% when the Federal Open Market Committee meets on March 21-22, 2023?	Binary
-23.187	How many additional H5N1 infections will be reported in wild birds across the United States by the end of March 2023?	Continuous
-39.097	Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-41.778	How many ratings will Prince Harry's book Spare have on Amazon on January 20th at 7:00 pm GMT?	Continuous
-42.640	How many coronation medals will be awarded as part of King Charles III coronation?	Continuous
-52.745	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
-77.594	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-79.950	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
-99.550	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
-108.935	Will the author who wins the 2023 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction be a first-time finalist?	Binary
-110.980	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-121.548	What discretionary funding level will President Biden request for NASA in his 2024 budget?	Continuous
-126.562	Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship?	Binary
-157.247	Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?	Binary
-168.616	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
-228.601	Will New York City break its record by going more than 332 days without measurable snow?	Binary
-289.818	Will Santiago Peña win the Paraguayan presidential election on April 30th?	Binary
-292.660	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-387.525	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Vegas Golden Knights)	Binary
-452.823	Will the US Supreme Court declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional?	Binary
-478.968	Will voting in Twitter polls require verification on April 16, 2023?	Binary
-483.171	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
-540.169	Will Israel still be rated "Free" in the Freedom in the World 2024 Report (covering the year 2023)?	Binary

MetaculusM

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

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Cosmic