gunturiqbal

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2022

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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8.271k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
99.427	What percentage "yes" will Elon Musk's Twitter poll have for reinstating Trump?	Continuous
98.433	Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
98.359	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?	Binary
98.329	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?	Binary
98.204	Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
98.203	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
97.949	Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
97.455	Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?	Binary
97.454	Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?	Binary
97.051	Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?	Binary
96.857	Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
96.335	[Short fuse]: Will Russia assume responsibility and apologize for the Przewodów strike before December?	Binary
95.790	Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
95.589	Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?	Binary
95.278	Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
94.933	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?	Binary
94.580	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?	Binary
93.953	Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?	Binary
93.881	Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?	Binary
93.600	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2022)	Binary
93.496	Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?	Binary
92.888	Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?	Binary
89.837	How many US troops will be in Europe on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
89.668	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Sierra Leone)	Binary
89.668	By February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope successfully see First Light?	Binary
89.668	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Mauritania)	Binary
89.668	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Liberia)	Binary
89.668	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Senegal)	Binary
89.668	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Guinea-Bissau)	Binary
88.795	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Rwanda)	Binary
88.795	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Eswatini (Swaziland))	Binary
88.344	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Guinea)	Binary
88.344	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Morocco)	Binary
88.336	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Zimbabwe)	Binary
88.336	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Equatorial Guinea)	Binary
87.912	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Lesotho)	Binary
87.757	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023?	Binary
87.217	Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022?	Binary
87.201	If Russia vetoes the UN Security Council vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, will the UN General Assembly override the veto?	Binary
87.020	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Djibouti)	Binary
87.007	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Côte d'Ivoire)	Binary
86.989	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Gabon)	Binary
86.119	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Tanzania)	Binary
85.998	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Korea DPR)	Binary
85.630	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Eritrea)	Binary
85.629	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Togo)	Binary
85.613	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Chinese Yuan Renminbi ¥)	Binary
84.728	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Tajikistan)	Binary
84.728	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Cambodia)	Binary
84.255	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Kenya)	Binary
84.255	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Burundi)	Binary
83.484	Will Twitter's board accept an acquisition offer from someone other than Elon Musk before 2023?	Binary
83.428	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Lao PDR)	Binary
82.865	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Benin)	Binary
82.387	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Bolivia)	Binary
81.764	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Mexican Peso $)	Binary
81.764	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Saudi Riyal SAR)	Binary
81.764	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Indian Rupee ₹)	Binary
81.584	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Nicaragua)	Binary
81.584	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Guatemala)	Binary
81.584	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Honduras)	Binary
81.462	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Angola)	Binary
81.162	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (El Salvador)	Binary
79.518	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Jul 24, 2022)	Continuous
78.127	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Nepal)	Binary
77.843	Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
77.793	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Bangladeshi Taka ৳)	Binary
77.777	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Iranian Rial IRR)	Binary
77.004	Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?	Binary
76.003	How many people in Russia will be arrested for participating in anti-war protests before 2023?	Continuous
75.991	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Indonesian Rupiah Rp)	Binary
74.915	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Aug 21, 2022)	Continuous
74.836	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (May 1, 2022)	Continuous
74.663	Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
73.334	Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022?	Binary
73.005	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?	Binary
71.535	Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?	Binary
68.799	Will Governor Newsom be Reelected Governor of California in 2022?	Binary
67.245	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (May 29, 2022)	Continuous
67.047	Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
66.932	Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
66.772	How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022?	Continuous
66.544	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (European Union Euro €)	Binary
66.544	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Polish złoty ł)	Binary
66.308	How much crude oil will the US import from Russia in 2022?	Continuous
65.121	Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
63.123	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Aug 21, 2022)	Continuous
62.220	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?	Binary
59.968	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Thai Baht ฿)	Binary
57.632	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Jun 26, 2022)	Continuous
56.800	Will Russian or Belarusian troops cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts before 2023?	Binary
56.562	Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022?	Binary
56.470	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Papua New Guinea)	Binary
55.963	Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
55.631	Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
52.198	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Jul 24, 2022)	Continuous
50.788	How far ahead or behind of Labour will the UK's Conservative Party be in the polls on October 6, 2022?	Continuous
49.473	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (May 1, 2022)	Continuous
49.401	Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
49.019	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (India)	Binary
47.968	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Nigerian Naira ₦)	Binary
46.543	Before 2023, will Joe Biden announce that he will not run for president in 2024?	Binary
46.536	Will Ron DeSantis be re-elected as Governor of Florida in 2022?	Binary
44.989	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Sajid Javid)	Binary
44.364	Will Éric Zemmour win the French presidential election in 2022?	Binary
44.249	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Democratic Republic of Congo)	Binary
43.422	What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in December 2022?	Continuous
43.244	Will the British pound trade below $1 before 2023?	Binary
43.129	Will Princeton cancel in person classes in January 2022?	Binary
43.024	Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022?	Binary
42.854	How many civilian casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War will there be before May 2022?	Continuous
42.712	Will Mehmet Oz win the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania?	Binary
41.745	Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022?	Binary
39.696	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
38.927	Will Éric Zemmour be in the 2nd round of the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
38.249	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Liz Truss)	Binary
35.738	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (May 29, 2022)	Continuous
34.581	Will there be an armed conflict in the South China Sea before 2023?	Binary
34.376	Will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) exceed 60 on any single day in 2022?	Binary
33.680	Will the DART asteroid mission successfully impact in 2022?	Binary
33.097	Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022?	Binary
33.030	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Pakistan)	Binary
32.058	Will EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
31.581	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?	Binary
29.526	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Argentine Peso $)	Binary
29.511	Will Raphael Warnock be re-elected in the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia?	Binary
27.403	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy's image appear on the cover of Time's 2022 Person of the Year issue, more prominently than any other person's image?	Binary
27.400	How much will China spend on importing diodes and semiconductors in 2022?	Continuous
27.277	Will Blake Masters win the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona?	Binary
25.711	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Russian Ruble ₽)	Binary
24.109	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Brazillian Real R$)	Binary
23.989	How many border crossings leaving Ukraine will there be in 2022?	Continuous
21.528	Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
20.911	Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?	Binary
20.488	How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections?	Continuous
18.066	Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?	Binary
18.008	Will Sarah Palin be elected as US Representative for Alaska in 2022?	Binary
16.133	Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?	Binary
12.632	Will Ukraine win the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest?	Binary
11.999	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Bangladesh)	Binary
11.365	Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?	Binary
11.278	Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	Binary
10.320	Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
9.609	Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
8.950	Will the US Government designate Russia a "State Sponsor of Terrorism" by 2023?	Binary
7.752	By December 31, 2022, will the US federal government announce an extension of the pause on federal student loan repayments?	Binary
4.706	If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023?	Binary
3.244	Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan in 2022?	Binary
2.652	Will the US sanction Russian oil or gas before 2023?	Binary
1.770	[short-fuse] Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
1.080	Before 2023, will FTX.US default or suspend payment to at least one FTX.US user?	Binary
-2.553	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Uganda)	Binary
-4.531	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Pakistani Rupee ₨)	Binary
-13.555	Will the study “Knowledge about others reduces one’s own sense of anonymity” (Nature, 2022) replicate?	Binary
-21.827	Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?	Binary
-31.221	Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?	Binary
-34.994	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Jun 26, 2022)	Continuous
-35.574	Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?	Binary
-42.856	Before 2022-04-01, will martial law be on in any five federal subjects of Russia excluding all the territories annexed after 2013?	Binary
-62.476	Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-67.272	Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-85.859	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Egyptian Pound £E)	Binary
-87.096	[short fuse] Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in 2022?	Binary
-138.711	Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022?	Binary
-150.402	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Turkish Lira ₺)	Binary
-202.350	Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022?	Binary
-213.163	What will total NATO defense spending be in 2022?	Continuous