147.274 | How much money will the FTX Foundation distribute in 2023? | Continuous |
96.768 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
96.294 | Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025? | Binary |
95.527 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
95.442 | Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025? | Binary |
93.750 | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
92.850 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
92.013 | Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023? | Binary |
91.745 | Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024? | Binary |
90.746 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
89.745 | What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
89.683 | Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025? | Binary |
88.605 | What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
88.597 | What will be the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
88.339 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
86.960 | What will the world population be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
86.825 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
86.204 | How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
85.211 | Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU? | Binary |
83.607 | Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022? | Binary |
83.155 | Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta? | Binary |
82.106 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
81.867 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
81.807 | Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
78.007 | Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025? | Binary |
77.846 | Will 2022 be the hottest year on record? | Binary |
75.768 | Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022? | Binary |
75.479 | What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
74.776 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024) | Binary |
74.407 | Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
73.749 | Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election? | Binary |
73.031 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
72.511 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
72.509 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
72.509 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
72.021 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
71.592 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
70.377 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
69.572 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
69.572 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
69.081 | What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022? | Continuous |
69.007 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
68.439 | Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta? | Binary |
68.204 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
68.193 | What will the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth be in the G7 countries in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
67.116 | Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023? | Binary |
66.662 | Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025? | Binary |
65.391 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election? | Binary |
64.833 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
64.643 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025) | Binary |
63.948 | Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023? | Binary |
62.940 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
62.370 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
62.178 | 5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
61.828 | Will 2022 be warmer than 2021? | Binary |
61.603 | Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
61.184 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
61.184 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
59.683 | Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)? | Binary |
59.675 | What percentage of the African Union’s budget will be contributed by its member states in the budget for fiscal year 2025? | Continuous |
59.452 | Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024? | Binary |
54.664 | What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022? | Continuous |
53.711 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
53.573 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
53.540 | Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled? | Binary |
53.347 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023? | Binary |
53.149 | Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023? | Binary |
52.801 | What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
52.491 | What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
49.707 | Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023? | Binary |
48.810 | Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024? | Binary |
48.223 | How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022? | Continuous |
45.418 | When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.? | Continuous |
44.780 | How many active United Nations peacekeeping missions will there be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
44.627 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
44.627 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
42.895 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
42.184 | Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31? | Binary |
41.647 | What percent of the world population will use the internet in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
41.581 | Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022? | Binary |
41.580 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
41.580 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
41.548 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
41.548 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
41.548 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
41.548 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
41.548 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
41.548 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
41.548 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
41.474 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
41.474 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
41.474 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
41.418 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
41.418 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
41.355 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
41.176 | How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022? | Continuous |
41.117 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
40.179 | What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500? | Continuous |
39.126 | What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years? (2023) | Continuous |
36.361 | How many Japanese Air Force responses to Chinese military threats there will be by 2024? | Continuous |
34.367 | Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session? | Binary |
34.136 | Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections? | Binary |
34.132 | How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
33.612 | Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022? | Binary |
32.088 | Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
30.232 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
29.738 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
29.216 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
27.689 | Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022? | Binary |
26.844 | By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? | Binary |
25.227 | Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023? | Binary |
24.357 | What will the price of oil be for December 2022? | Continuous |
23.989 | Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models? | Binary |
20.674 | What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID cases in the US between January 1, 2022 to April 1, 2022? | Continuous |
19.732 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
19.732 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
19.732 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
19.732 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
19.477 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
16.639 | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026? | Binary |
16.481 | Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
13.726 | Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023? | Binary |
12.868 | What will be the share of people living in countries where same-sex marriage is legal in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
12.497 | Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020? | Binary |
11.887 | What will US inflation be in 2022? | Continuous |
9.537 | Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025? | Binary |
9.069 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate & House) | Binary |
8.819 | Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022? | Binary |
8.188 | What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
7.871 | Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023? | Binary |
6.648 | Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
6.290 | Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022? | Binary |
6.247 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate, Dem House) | Binary |
5.833 | Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025? | Binary |
5.759 | Will a university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again? | Binary |
5.564 | Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections? | Binary |
3.930 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate, Rep House) | Binary |
3.385 | Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election? | Binary |
3.127 | What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
3.033 | When will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments? | Continuous |
2.587 | Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022? | Binary |
2.387 | When will the UK Labour Party next maintain a 10-point polling lead for a month? | Continuous |
2.331 | Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024? | Binary |
1.123 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House) | Binary |
0.673 | Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11? | Binary |
0.010 | When will Kwasi Kwarteng no longer hold the office of UK chancellor of the Exchequer? | Continuous |
-5.049 | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023) | Binary |
-8.705 | Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
-9.270 | Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025? | Binary |
-10.226 | Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform? | Binary |
-17.801 | By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis? | Binary |
-18.121 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
-20.023 | What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
-32.021 | Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
-32.826 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
-33.437 | What will China’s GDP be in 2023? | Continuous |
-49.216 | Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025? | Binary |
-52.422 | Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023? | Binary |
-55.619 | How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022? | Continuous |
-92.111 | [short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022? | Binary |
-92.861 | Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025? | Binary |
-107.575 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
-109.251 | How many Chinese institutions of higher education will get approved for an artificial intelligence undergraduate program in 2023? | Continuous |
-122.159 | Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025) | Binary |
-127.640 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
-321.671 | Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023? | Binary |