H559

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

15.07k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
179.987	How many birds will be affected by avian influenza in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
159.638	How many mpox cases will Virginia report in the second quarter of 2023?	Continuous
107.149	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 29)	Continuous
106.651	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (June 17)	Continuous
98.648	Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
97.633	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 100)	Binary
97.334	Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise? (2023)	Binary
96.698	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
96.341	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
96.105	Will there no longer be any authorized COVID therapeutic in the U.S. in 2023?	Binary
95.732	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
95.714	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
94.954	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 300)	Binary
94.939	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in January 2023?	Continuous
94.821	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
94.055	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Christian Zurita)	Binary
93.399	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?	Binary
92.059	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
91.366	Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?	Binary
91.357	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
91.286	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
91.032	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
90.427	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 1)	Continuous
90.324	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
89.932	Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?	Binary
89.692	Will the US Housing Market crash in 2023?	Binary
89.499	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 600)	Binary
89.405	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
89.320	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Jan Topić)	Binary
89.320	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Otto Sonnenholzner)	Binary
89.319	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Yaku Pérez Guartambel)	Binary
89.319	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Xavier Hervas)	Binary
89.319	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Bolívar Armijos)	Binary
89.194	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+Greens+FDP)	Binary
88.982	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2024)	Binary
88.979	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
88.313	What will the highest monthly count of false English language COVID claims in 2023?	Continuous
86.957	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 15)	Continuous
86.338	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (Greens+CDU)	Binary
85.916	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
85.596	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (June 3)	Continuous
84.869	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+Greens)	Binary
83.327	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Rabiu Kwankwaso)	Binary
82.914	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (May 20)	Continuous
82.683	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+SPD+Greens)	Binary
81.964	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)	Binary
81.963	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
81.963	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)	Binary
81.963	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)	Binary
81.925	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)	Binary
81.887	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
81.792	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
81.792	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
81.792	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
81.792	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
81.792	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
81.792	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
81.792	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)	Binary
81.792	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)	Binary
81.792	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)	Binary
81.792	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
81.791	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)	Binary
81.700	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
81.410	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+FDP+Greens)	Binary
81.128	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (March 25)	Continuous
80.568	What will be the highest daily Heat Related Illness (HRI) visit count in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
79.763	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
78.871	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
78.392	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (May 6)	Continuous
77.536	Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023?	Binary
75.785	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
75.658	How many FDIC banks will fail in 2023?	Continuous
75.623	What will the the total value of property damage (in US dollars) caused by tornados be in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
75.614	What will the Geopolitical Risk index be for 2023?	Continuous
74.797	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
74.719	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
74.649	Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season?	Binary
73.167	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+SPD+FDP)	Binary
72.807	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
72.495	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 30, 2023)	Continuous
72.245	Will OpenAI Inc. change its mission statement before the following years? (2024)	Binary
71.900	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (Feb 11)	Continuous
71.877	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
71.789	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Australia)	Binary
71.463	Will "Epidemiologists" be included on Virginia's next High Demand Occupation List?	Binary
71.227	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (Feb 25)	Continuous
71.185	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Sweden)	Binary
70.426	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Colombia)	Binary
70.097	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
68.497	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
67.493	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
67.145	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
66.974	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
66.567	[Short Fuse] How many attendees will be at the next Metaculus Meetup? (January 2023)	Continuous
66.363	Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?	Binary
66.142	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
65.693	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
65.209	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 16, 2023)	Continuous
64.889	Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?	Binary
64.762	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
63.885	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (England)	Binary
63.883	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Netherlands)	Binary
63.327	Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
63.206	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Japan)	Binary
62.309	Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?	Binary
61.686	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (France)	Binary
60.483	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
60.482	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
60.472	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
60.468	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
60.260	How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (December 2023)	Continuous
60.198	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
60.051	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
59.892	What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023?	Continuous
59.738	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (March 11)	Continuous
59.116	Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR COVID-like illness (CLI) visits in Virginia during summer 2023 exceed the same peak during the preceding winter 2022-2023?	Binary
59.054	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Morocco)	Binary
58.775	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
58.394	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Jamaica)	Binary
58.294	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
58.066	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
57.925	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Atiku Abubakar)	Binary
57.903	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
57.595	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
57.338	How many U.S. jurisdictions will experience "high" or "very high" influenza activity for the week ending January 21, 2023?	Continuous
56.962	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (April 22)	Continuous
56.673	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
55.745	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Denmark)	Binary
55.504	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Nigeria)	Binary
55.097	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
55.068	Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?	Binary
54.933	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
54.779	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
53.725	Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?	Binary
53.463	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
52.981	Will OpenAI release a "product" after ChatGPT before 2024?	Binary
52.958	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
52.093	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
52.080	Will at least one mink farm worker die from any strain of bird flu in 2023?	Binary
51.822	Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate?	Binary
51.796	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Africa)	Binary
51.179	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
50.905	How many tornado segments will be reported in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
49.966	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
49.634	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
49.584	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
49.374	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Switzerland)	Binary
49.366	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?	Continuous
49.272	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
48.866	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
48.553	How many countries will have approved the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
48.485	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
48.336	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
47.892	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
46.558	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
46.530	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
46.208	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
46.166	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (Aug 12)	Continuous
46.019	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
46.019	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Nancy Mace (R))	Binary
45.883	Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting?	Binary
45.854	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?	Binary
45.733	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
45.732	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
45.731	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
45.730	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
45.678	How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (September 2023)	Continuous
45.437	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
45.334	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
45.187	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
44.651	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (February 25)	Continuous
43.974	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
43.878	What will be the total number of fish that Fish Welfare Initiative (FWI) claims to have helped by 2024?	Continuous
43.874	US Government Shutdown Before 2024? (No) → Johnson Speaker until 2024?	Binary
43.867	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
43.749	When will the U.S. end the public health emergency for COVID-19?	Continuous
43.371	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Korea)	Binary
43.114	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
42.404	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Norway)	Binary
42.296	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
42.158	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (All Other Teams Not Listed)	Binary
41.596	Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?	Binary
41.572	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
41.235	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Italy)	Binary
41.212	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
41.146	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
40.992	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Argentina)	Binary
40.884	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
40.673	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Brazil)	Binary
40.459	Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class?	Binary
40.296	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
40.286	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
39.961	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023)	Binary
39.855	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Emmer (R))	Binary
39.771	What will NVIDIA's market cap be at the end of 2023?	Continuous
39.669	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
39.667	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
39.542	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
39.426	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
39.123	What will be the worldwide 7-day rolling average of confirmed mpox cases for June 30, 2023?	Continuous
39.025	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (February 25)	Continuous
38.649	What will be the total daily Heat Related Illness (HRI) visit counts in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
38.568	Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22?	Binary
38.509	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
38.458	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
38.447	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Haiti)	Binary
38.446	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (China)	Binary
38.404	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
38.316	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
38.250	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Portugal)	Binary
38.250	Which week in late 2023 will have the highest percent of medical visits for Influenza-like Illness in Virginia?	Continuous
38.012	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
37.314	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
37.275	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
37.224	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
37.047	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (February 25)	Continuous
37.042	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (February 25)	Continuous
35.561	Will GPT-4 exhibit a capability jump for Leetcode questions before 2024?	Binary
35.292	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Canada)	Binary
35.203	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
35.121	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Germany)	Binary
34.776	Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?	Binary
34.534	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
34.275	When will the U.S. CDC stop requiring line-level (patient-level) COVID-19 case data from states?	Continuous
33.964	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Peter Obi)	Binary
33.659	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
33.296	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (February 25)	Continuous
32.253	Will the 2023 World Chess Championship go to tiebreaks?	Binary
32.137	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Philippines)	Binary
32.077	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
31.559	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
31.107	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
31.063	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (New Zealand)	Binary
30.671	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
30.541	Will the statutory debt limit be increased or suspended for at least 30 days in the United States before 2024?	Binary
29.554	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Panama)	Binary
29.486	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Florida Panthers)	Binary
29.453	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
29.401	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
29.182	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Dec-23)	Continuous
29.119	How much money (in US dollars) will GlobalGiving's Morocco Earthquake Relief Fund have raised on September 21, 2023?	Continuous
28.716	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
28.696	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
28.279	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
27.462	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Bola Tinubu)	Binary
26.749	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
26.531	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
26.499	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
26.283	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Cole (R))	Binary
25.906	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Massachusetts for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
25.752	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
24.573	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Colorado for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
24.216	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Austin Scott (R))	Binary
24.207	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Republic of Ireland)	Binary
24.158	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
23.764	How many additional H5N1 infections will be reported in wild birds across the United States by the end of March 2023?	Continuous
23.712	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Vietnam)	Binary
23.527	Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
23.332	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Missouri for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
23.234	Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?	Binary
23.217	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Illinois for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
23.049	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Washington for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
22.117	Will a mandatory evacuation order be issued for any area of Virginia related to any tropical cyclone in 2023?	Binary
21.886	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 30, 2023)	Continuous
21.510	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Lakers)	Binary
21.274	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (United States)	Binary
20.990	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Boston Celtics)	Binary
20.912	What percentage of Virginia adults will be vaccinated against influenza by the week ending December 30, 2023?	Continuous
20.704	What place will Canada get in the 2023 International Math Olympiad?	Continuous
20.599	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Costa Rica)	Binary
20.599	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Zambia)	Binary
19.547	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
19.161	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
18.892	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 16, 2023)	Continuous
18.647	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
18.374	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
18.036	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
18.017	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Brian Fitzpatrick (R))	Binary
17.782	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Lee Zeldin (R))	Binary
17.524	Will the maiden flight of the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 launch successfully and on time?	Binary
16.546	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
16.113	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (February 25)	Continuous
15.992	[Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023?	Binary
15.720	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
14.877	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 16, 2023)	Continuous
14.697	Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?	Binary
14.359	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
12.356	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (New York Knicks)	Binary
12.248	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
11.424	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Golden State Warriors)	Binary
11.131	Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?	Binary
10.642	Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
10.231	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Phoenix Suns)	Binary
10.123	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Dallas Stars)	Binary
9.728	Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023?	Binary
9.625	Will ChatGPT have multiple tiers of capability before 2024?	Binary
9.554	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (Feb 25)	Continuous
9.403	Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
8.379	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?	Binary
8.312	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (Feb 11)	Continuous
8.186	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
8.143	When will Joe Biden issue his third veto?	Continuous
7.239	Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?	Binary
7.167	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Philadelphia 76ers)	Binary
6.861	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)	Binary
6.719	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
6.706	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Sergio Massa)	Binary
6.423	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Carolina Hurricanes)	Binary
6.266	Will the suspected Chinese surveillance balloon be on the ground before February 11th, 2023?	Binary
6.033	When will the WHO COVID-19 PHEIC expire?	Continuous
4.998	Will the EU Parliament endorse a negotiating mandate for the AI Act before June 16, 2023?	Binary
4.839	Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?	Binary
4.230	Will Estonia legalize gay marriage in 2023?	Binary
3.843	Will Ed Sheeran be found liable for copyright infringement in 'Let's Get It On' lawsuit?	Binary
3.672	How many new forecasters will be in the top 20 of the Beginner Tournament at the end of the tournament?	Continuous
3.428	Will countries commit at least 100 US/German-made modern main battle tanks to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
3.401	Will Virgin Orbit file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
2.403	[Short Fuse] How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress?	Continuous
1.680	When will the procurement and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines in the U.S. be managed by the commercial marketplace?	Continuous
1.393	[Short Fuse] Will Credit Suisse experience any of the following scenarios before May 2023?	Binary
0.330	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (March 11)	Continuous
0.312	Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship?	Binary
0.265	Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.238	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Denver Nuggets)	Binary
0.140	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Juan Schiaretti)	Binary
0.139	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Myriam Bregman)	Binary
0.115	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Patricia Bullrich)	Binary
0.013	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
-0.640	How many days will any region in Virginia experience coastal flood, high wind, hurricane, or tropical storm in 2023?	Continuous
-2.469	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (April 8)	Continuous
-4.077	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 30, 2023)	Continuous
-5.069	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-5.321	Will the US FDA authorize a new vaccine targeting COVID-19 in 2023?	Binary
-9.132	[Short Fuse] How many attendees will be at the next Metaculus Meetup? (February 2023)	Continuous
-9.676	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Daniel Noboa Azín)	Binary
-10.087	Will a bird flu outbreak among minks on an additional mink farm result in the minks being culled before 2024?	Binary
-11.663	Will the US Congress approve additional aid for Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
-13.376	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Vegas Golden Knights)	Binary
-14.223	Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?	Binary
-16.564	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
-17.101	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (Aug 26)	Continuous
-17.368	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
-17.876	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
-18.859	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Luisa González)	Binary
-21.293	How many tech employees will be laid off in 2023 by April 25th?	Continuous
-24.833	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+Greens+Left)	Binary
-28.982	What will the most expensive AI training run be in the following years, in millions of USD? (2023)	Continuous
-30.340	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-32.755	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
-50.217	When will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute indicate at least 13 of Virginia's 35 health districts are in a "surge" trajectory?	Continuous
-56.407	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (March 25)	Continuous
-83.693	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Mike Johnson (R))	Binary
-105.465	Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
-172.038	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Spain)	Binary
-218.213	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+CDU)	Binary

MetaculusM

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

H559

User

H559