116.414 | Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Sudan) | Continuous |
113.233 | Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Azerbaijan) | Continuous |
107.117 | Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Lebanon) | Continuous |
106.990 | Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Uganda) | Continuous |
103.703 | How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024? | Continuous |
96.511 | Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
95.951 | West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Ghana) | Binary |
95.662 | Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
94.523 | In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"? | Binary |
93.477 | Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024? | Binary |
93.077 | Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination? | Binary |
93.043 | Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024? | Binary |
91.766 | How many nuclear weapons will there be in world stockpiles in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
91.625 | Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023? | Binary |
90.181 | Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Haiti) | Binary |
89.695 | Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024? | Binary |
89.064 | Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024? | Binary |
87.840 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United) | Binary |
87.150 | Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024? | Binary |
86.571 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United) | Binary |
86.153 | Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
84.787 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton & Hove Albion) | Binary |
84.518 | Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Armenia) | Continuous |
83.627 | How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022? | Continuous |
83.479 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur) | Binary |
82.034 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Cincinnati Bengals) | Binary |
81.891 | In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people? | Binary |
80.668 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New York Giants) | Binary |
80.579 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Jacksonville Jaguars) | Binary |
80.408 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Philadelphia Eagles) | Binary |
80.164 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
80.102 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (San Francisco 49ers) | Binary |
79.747 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Liverpool) | Binary |
79.747 | Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024? | Binary |
79.628 | Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Haiti) | Continuous |
79.271 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Dallas Cowboys) | Binary |
78.561 | In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan? | Binary |
78.528 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brentford) | Binary |
78.375 | In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine? | Binary |
77.562 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Aston Villa) | Binary |
77.562 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Chelsea) | Binary |
77.390 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Fulham) | Binary |
77.341 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Seattle Seahawks) | Binary |
77.050 | Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024? | Binary |
76.505 | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
76.419 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Minnesota Vikings) | Binary |
76.300 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Los Angeles Chargers) | Binary |
76.150 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Baltimore Ravens) | Binary |
75.458 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | Binary |
75.050 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Miami Dolphins) | Binary |
74.959 | What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022? | Continuous |
74.514 | Will the US ban TikTok before 2024? | Binary |
74.112 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (John Legere) | Binary |
74.112 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jared Kushner) | Binary |
74.111 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sheryl Sandberg) | Binary |
73.508 | Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024? | Binary |
72.814 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Green Bay Packers) | Binary |
72.717 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Detroit Lions) | Binary |
72.639 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Pittsburgh Steelers) | Binary |
72.639 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New England Patriots) | Binary |
72.549 | Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022? (Sri Lanka) | Continuous |
72.543 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Mike Schroepfer) | Binary |
72.543 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Blake Masters) | Binary |
72.532 | Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023? | Binary |
72.235 | Will Bitcoin go up over 2023? | Binary |
72.211 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Tennessee Titans) | Binary |
71.950 | Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024? | Binary |
71.747 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Steve Davis) | Binary |
71.717 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers) | Binary |
71.669 | Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023? | Binary |
71.632 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Crystal Palace) | Binary |
71.334 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest) | Binary |
71.334 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leicester City) | Binary |
70.941 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Peter Thiel) | Binary |
70.941 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Lex Fridman) | Binary |
70.940 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jason Calacanis) | Binary |
70.619 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sriram Krishnan) | Binary |
70.430 | Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023? | Binary |
70.029 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Bournemouth) | Binary |
70.028 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leeds United) | Binary |
70.028 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (West Ham United) | Binary |
70.028 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Southampton) | Binary |
69.969 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Everton) | Binary |
69.937 | Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
69.499 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Las Vegas Raiders) | Binary |
69.333 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (UTJ) | Binary |
69.333 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Shas) | Binary |
69.217 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Meretz) | Binary |
69.217 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Joint List) | Binary |
69.217 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Religious Zionist) | Binary |
68.742 | Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta? | Binary |
68.481 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New Orleans Saints) | Binary |
68.481 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Washington Commanders) | Binary |
68.480 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New York Jets) | Binary |
68.437 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Yisrael Beiteinu) | Binary |
68.404 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Carolina Panthers) | Binary |
68.149 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (New Hope) | Binary |
67.938 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Labor) | Binary |
67.004 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2023) | Binary |
66.628 | Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024? | Binary |
65.752 | Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024? | Binary |
64.899 | On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war? | Binary |
64.794 | What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2023) | Continuous |
64.709 | Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
64.127 | Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023? | Binary |
64.045 | In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court? | Binary |
63.708 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Atlanta Falcons) | Binary |
63.707 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Cleveland Browns) | Binary |
63.641 | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023? | Binary |
63.288 | What will be the annual number of objects launched into space in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
62.981 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Zionist Spirit) | Binary |
62.699 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Indianapolis Colts) | Binary |
62.388 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (David Sacks) | Binary |
62.251 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal) | Binary |
61.139 | Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023? | Binary |
59.812 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Los Angeles Rams) | Binary |
59.492 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Arizona Cardinals) | Binary |
59.340 | What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR ≥ 4.5%, core PCE < 3%) | Binary |
58.327 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Buffalo Bills) | Binary |
58.306 | Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
58.064 | Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024? | Binary |
57.285 | Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Nuclear Energy) | Binary |
56.513 | Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024? | Binary |
56.167 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Denver Broncos) | Binary |
55.652 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024? | Binary |
54.659 | How many satellites will be deployed in 2022? | Continuous |
53.769 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
52.787 | In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)? | Binary |
52.537 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Chicago Bears) | Binary |
52.537 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Houston Texans) | Binary |
51.917 | Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024? | Binary |
51.896 | In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency? | Binary |
51.478 | Will Finland join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
51.192 | What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR < 4.5%, core PCE < 3%) | Binary |
50.882 | Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
50.395 | Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023? | Binary |
50.015 | On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia? | Binary |
49.900 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol? | Binary |
49.857 | In 2023 will the UK hold a general election? | Binary |
49.817 | Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula? | Continuous |
49.719 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024? | Binary |
49.050 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
48.669 | Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024? | Binary |
48.203 | What percentage of people in low-income countries will have recieved at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by January 1, 2023? | Continuous |
47.761 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (May-23) | Continuous |
46.487 | Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning? | Binary |
46.331 | On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK? | Binary |
46.166 | Will the US Supplemental Poverty Measure be higher in 2022 than 2021? | Binary |
45.797 | Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Water Treatment) | Binary |
43.946 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (January 14) | Continuous |
43.563 | Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024? | Binary |
43.137 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Sep-23) | Continuous |
42.499 | What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR ≥ 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%) | Binary |
42.358 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Oct-23) | Continuous |
41.568 | Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023? | Binary |
41.003 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Nov-23) | Continuous |
40.740 | Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023? | Binary |
40.531 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (February 11) | Continuous |
40.527 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Apr-23) | Continuous |
40.459 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Elon Musk) | Binary |
39.546 | In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source? | Binary |
38.907 | Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024? | Binary |
38.175 | Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023? | Binary |
36.924 | Will Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously? | Binary |
36.709 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (January 28) | Continuous |
36.449 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (January 28) | Continuous |
35.998 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
35.917 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jun-23) | Continuous |
35.837 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (February 11) | Continuous |
35.506 | Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023? | Binary |
35.247 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Yesh Atid) | Binary |
34.898 | On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating? | Binary |
34.279 | Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023? | Binary |
34.246 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Aug-23) | Continuous |
33.975 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jul-23) | Continuous |
33.742 | Will a new Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy be created if the PREVENT Pandemics Act is made law? | Binary |
33.706 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Mar-23) | Continuous |
32.973 | In 2023, what will the cost-effectiveness of the Against Malaria Foundation be, according to GiveWell? | Continuous |
32.034 | How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000) | Binary |
30.564 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (January 14) | Continuous |
30.081 | When will Boris Johnson no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom? | Continuous |
29.837 | Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024? | Binary |
29.116 | In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset? | Binary |
29.112 | Will Tsinghua University bar some students from returning to the dorms for the 2023 Spring Semester? | Binary |
28.967 | What price will Coinbase quote for FTX's FTT token on February 1, 2023? | Continuous |
27.306 | How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000) | Binary |
26.914 | Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023? | Binary |
24.699 | Will a grant recipient of the FTX Foundation have their grant funds frozen, seized, or demanded back? (January 1, 2024) | Binary |
24.039 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
23.117 | Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023? | Binary |
22.840 | Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024? | Binary |
22.101 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Feb-23) | Continuous |
21.982 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Chargers) | Binary |
21.872 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (February 11) | Continuous |
21.848 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Blue and White) | Binary |
21.546 | By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt? | Binary |
21.108 | In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet? | Binary |
20.764 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023? | Binary |
19.950 | If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass? | Binary |
19.815 | Will a decision be made to start and fund a dedicated and systematic science and technology review process at the 2022 BWC Review Conference? | Binary |
19.647 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Detroit Lions) | Binary |
17.850 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Pittsburgh Steelers) | Binary |
17.531 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Seattle Seahawks) | Binary |
17.485 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New England Patriots) | Binary |
17.350 | What will be the market cap of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023? | Continuous |
16.809 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Miami Dolphins) | Binary |
16.619 | What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (February 2023) | Continuous |
16.504 | How many estimated cases of Marburg virus (MARV) will occur globally in 2022? | Continuous |
16.366 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Green Bay Packers) | Binary |
16.150 | What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (Mar-23) | Continuous |
15.902 | How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000) | Binary |
15.255 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Las Vegas Raiders) | Binary |
15.235 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (February 11) | Continuous |
15.173 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Carolina Panthers) | Binary |
15.136 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Kansas City Chiefs) | Binary |
15.078 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Philadelphia Eagles) | Binary |
15.008 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Washington Commanders) | Binary |
14.766 | In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China? | Binary |
14.761 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New Orleans Saints) | Binary |
14.760 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New York Jets) | Binary |
14.670 | What will be the US 2023 budget (in USD) for the CDC's new Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics? | Continuous |
14.356 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (February 11) | Continuous |
13.907 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Buffalo Bills) | Binary |
13.590 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023? | Binary |
13.424 | In 2023 will any new country join NATO? | Binary |
13.164 | Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000? | Binary |
12.717 | What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (May-23) | Continuous |
12.509 | How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022? | Continuous |
11.519 | In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30? | Binary |
11.185 | How many people in the world will live on $10 (2011 INT USD) or less per day in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
10.809 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
10.334 | How much oil will Venezuela produce in 2022? | Continuous |
10.133 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Cleveland Browns) | Binary |
9.966 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Atlanta Falcons) | Binary |
9.616 | Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023) | Binary |
9.106 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Indianapolis Colts) | Binary |
8.838 | Will a grant recipient of the FTX Foundation have their grant funds frozen, seized, or demanded back? (March 1, 2023) | Binary |
8.779 | When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson? | Continuous |
8.329 | On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment? | Binary |
8.242 | Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024? | Binary |
8.152 | Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023? | Binary |
8.111 | Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024? | Binary |
8.052 | What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (October 2023) | Continuous |
8.009 | In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4? | Binary |
7.892 | If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023? | Binary |
7.539 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (January 28) | Continuous |
7.475 | Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022? | Binary |
7.144 | When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA? | Continuous |
7.087 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Rams) | Binary |
6.550 | Will Andrej Babiš win the next Czech Republic presidental election? | Binary |
6.455 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Arizona Cardinals) | Binary |
6.426 | Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
5.777 | Will the Peoples Democratic Party win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential election? | Binary |
5.732 | Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023? | Binary |
5.479 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (January 14) | Continuous |
4.633 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (January 14) | Continuous |
4.607 | Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023? | Binary |
4.449 | When will GPT-4 be announced? | Continuous |
4.338 | Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
3.981 | Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Meatpacking) | Binary |
3.664 | How many FAO domestic food price warnings in spring 2023? | Continuous |
3.615 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (February 11) | Continuous |
3.227 | Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries? | Binary |
3.032 | What will be the total venture capital funding (in USD) for Anthropic, Adept, Character, Inflection, Conjecture, Cohere, & Huggingface on June 30, 2023? | Continuous |
2.567 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (January 28) | Continuous |
2.331 | What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (Feb-23) | Continuous |
2.149 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Denver Broncos) | Binary |
1.072 | Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023? | Binary |
0.520 | What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Apr-23) | Continuous |
0.429 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Grant Shapps) | Binary |
0.429 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Theresa May) | Binary |
0.429 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Suella Braverman) | Binary |
0.427 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Ben Wallace) | Binary |
0.423 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Jeremy Hunt) | Binary |
0.373 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Penny Mourdant) | Binary |
0.340 | Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023? | Binary |
0.228 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Boris Johnson) | Binary |
0.204 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Rishi Sunak) | Binary |
-0.129 | Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024? | Binary |
-2.715 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Likud) | Binary |
-5.492 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Tennessee Titans) | Binary |
-6.191 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (January 28) | Continuous |
-7.544 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Dallas Cowboys) | Binary |
-8.037 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (San Francisco 49ers) | Binary |
-9.194 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Baltimore Ravens) | Binary |
-9.360 | Will the US PREVENT Pandemics Act be made into law before February 2023? | Binary |
-10.942 | In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges? | Binary |
-11.095 | By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine? | Binary |
-11.631 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (January 28) | Continuous |
-12.277 | Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023? | Binary |
-13.041 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | Binary |
-13.111 | What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022? | Continuous |
-16.011 | Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022? | Binary |
-16.681 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Cincinnati Bengals) | Binary |
-20.077 | In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high? | Binary |
-22.794 | Will Saudi Arabia and Iran restore diplomatic relations by 2024? | Binary |
-23.732 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (January 14) | Continuous |
-27.059 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Minnesota Vikings) | Binary |
-27.135 | Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024? | Binary |
-31.384 | In 2023 will AI win a programming competition? | Binary |
-36.076 | In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit? | Binary |
-43.402 | Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (March 1, 2023) | Binary |
-44.371 | Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023? | Binary |
-45.079 | Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024? | Binary |
-49.568 | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
-53.725 | Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023? | Binary |
-55.653 | What will be the Council on Foreign Relations' count of conflicts with significant or greater impact on US interests on January 1, 2024? | Continuous |
-61.056 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (January 14) | Continuous |
-69.910 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
-71.635 | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023? | Binary |
-78.166 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New York Giants) | Binary |
-84.226 | What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (March 1, 2023) | Continuous |
-87.381 | What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR < 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%) | Binary |
-89.622 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Jacksonville Jaguars) | Binary |
-113.363 | What will be the number of unmanned aircraft sightings (UAS) in 2022? | Continuous |
-133.135 | Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023? | Binary |
-175.823 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City) | Binary |
-253.972 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
-274.490 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Kansas City Chiefs) | Binary |