| 132.024 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Flu) | Continuous |
| 131.127 | How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 130.864 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (COVID-19) | Continuous |
| 130.640 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Combined) | Continuous |
| 127.192 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (RSV) | Continuous |
| 127.109 | What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022? | Continuous |
| 126.487 | What will be the number of conflicts with critical impacts on U.S. interests by 2023? | Continuous |
| 123.751 | How much money will the FTX Foundation distribute in 2023? | Continuous |
| 119.561 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (COVID-19) | Continuous |
| 118.632 | What place will the United States get at the 2022 International Mathematical Olympiad? | Continuous |
| 115.667 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Flu) | Continuous |
| 113.649 | How many gold medals will the United States win at the 2022 International Math Olympiad? | Continuous |
| 113.360 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Florida for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 113.119 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
California for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 112.722 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Texas) | Continuous |
| 112.620 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Colorado for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 112.243 | What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 yellow maize - Min) | Continuous |
| 111.859 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Combined) | Continuous |
| 111.669 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Florida) | Continuous |
| 111.368 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Pennsylvania for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 111.329 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Colorado) | Continuous |
| 110.173 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Illinois for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 109.773 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Pennsylvania) | Continuous |
| 109.608 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
New York for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 108.832 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Illinois) | Continuous |
| 108.295 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Massachusetts) | Continuous |
| 108.142 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (California) | Continuous |
| 107.820 | What will be the British male life expectancy at birth in 2021 according to the UK Office of National Statistics? | Continuous |
| 107.790 | When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable cases occur? | Continuous |
| 103.634 | How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 102.273 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (New York) | Continuous |
| 100.443 | How many State of AI Report 2021 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2022 report? | Continuous |
| 99.685 | Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 99.537 | How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| 99.391 | How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024? | Continuous |
| 98.976 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Texas for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 98.744 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 98.679 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
| 98.616 | Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? | Binary |
| 98.616 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 98.195 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Washington for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 97.687 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Microsoft) | Binary |
| 97.644 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 97.416 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Sam Altman) | Binary |
| 97.416 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Sam Altman against OpenAI) | Binary |
| 97.380 | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 97.009 | Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 97.003 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 96.876 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 96.538 | When will the Republican presidential nominee next win the state of Massachusetts in a US Presidential Election? (2024) | Binary |
| 96.479 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 96.443 | How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 96.140 | What will Lebanon's Fragile States Index score be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 96.109 | India Acts in Pakistan by 2024 Election? (No) → Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025? | Binary |
| 96.005 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 95.845 | Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023? | Binary |
| 95.736 | Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont? | Binary |
| 95.657 | Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025? | Binary |
| 95.655 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 95.418 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 95.316 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 94.849 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government) | Binary |
| 94.368 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 94.316 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 94.065 | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
| 93.836 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 93.819 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 93.736 | What will be the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 93.695 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
| 93.668 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 93.029 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
| 92.710 | Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024? | Binary |
| 92.187 | Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta? | Binary |
| 92.178 | Which Republican candidate will win the most delegates on Super Tuesday? | Multiple Choice |
| 91.676 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vishwanathan Anand) | Binary |
| 91.672 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Yuriy Kuzubov) | Binary |
| 91.654 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Etienne Bacrot) | Binary |
| 91.653 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nihal Sarin) | Binary |
| 91.646 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexander Grischuk) | Binary |
| 91.607 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda) | Binary |
| 91.601 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Maxime Vachier-Lagrave) | Binary |
| 91.594 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vladimir Fedoseev) | Binary |
| 91.589 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hans Niemann) | Binary |
| 91.296 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 91.256 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas) | Binary |
| 91.141 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexandr Predke) | Binary |
| 91.138 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Levon Aronian) | Binary |
| 91.136 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vincent Keymer) | Binary |
| 91.077 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Sam Sevian) | Binary |
| 91.074 | Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 91.065 | Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025? | Binary |
| 91.034 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 90.788 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 90.720 | Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 90.550 | When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify? | Continuous |
| 89.896 | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2024) | Binary |
| 89.867 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Ian Nepomniachtchi) | Binary |
| 89.867 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu) | Binary |
| 89.848 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Fabiano Caruana) | Binary |
| 89.823 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 89.796 | Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 89.576 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hikaru Nakamura) | Binary |
| 89.573 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power) | Binary |
| 89.483 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov) | Binary |
| 89.455 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Amin Tabatabaei) | Binary |
| 89.359 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vidit Gujrathi) | Binary |
| 89.159 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Massachusetts for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 89.069 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 88.983 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
| 88.696 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas) | Binary |
| 88.424 | When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases fall below 1015? | Continuous |
| 88.340 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Richard Rapport) | Binary |
| 88.042 | Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025? | Binary |
| 87.823 | Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 87.473 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
| 87.351 | Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks? | Binary |
| 86.673 | What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US, in billions USD, in 2022? | Continuous |
| 86.472 | Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 86.353 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah) | Binary |
| 85.943 | Will 2022 be the hottest year on record? | Binary |
| 85.883 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| 85.589 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nijat Abasov) | Binary |
| 85.418 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 85.409 | Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 85.381 | Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 85.377 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 85.313 | Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024? | Binary |
| 85.002 | Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023? | Binary |
| 84.952 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Andre Esipenko) | Binary |
| 84.833 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | Binary |
| 84.376 | Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023? | Binary |
| 84.337 | Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 84.156 | What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 83.831 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 83.563 | Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 83.477 | Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU? | Binary |
| 83.430 | Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 83.339 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Arjun Erigaisi) | Binary |
| 83.309 | Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 83.033 | What will be the number of conflicts with significant impacts on U.S. interests by 2023? | Continuous |
| 82.858 | Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023? | Binary |
| 82.281 | What will Virginia's percent unemployment rate be in April 2022? | Continuous |
| 82.273 | What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022? | Continuous |
| 82.225 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
| 82.225 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 82.019 | Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 81.517 | Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2023? | Binary |
| 81.496 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 81.285 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| 80.894 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Magnus Carlsen) | Binary |
| 80.671 | When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur? | Continuous |
| 80.206 | Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023? | Binary |
| 80.174 | How much oil will Russia produce (in barrels per day) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 80.089 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024) | Binary |
| 80.063 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 79.977 | How many weeks will Virginia experience “widespread” influenza activity during the 2021-2022 flu season? | Continuous |
| 79.977 | Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 79.972 | Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025? | Binary |
| 79.534 | Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment? | Binary |
| 78.043 | When will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022? | Continuous |
| 77.631 | Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025? | Binary |
| 77.393 | Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season? | Binary |
| 77.302 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa) | Binary |
| 77.249 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 77.224 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 77.117 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 77.105 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 76.901 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska) | Binary |
| 76.679 | What will the world population be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 76.587 | Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022? | Binary |
| 76.448 | Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 76.308 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
| 76.103 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 75.762 | Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025? | Binary |
| 75.756 | Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022? | Binary |
| 75.737 | How many active United Nations peacekeeping missions will there be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 75.698 | When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022? | Continuous |
| 75.301 | What will Rivian's market cap be at the close of trading on 20 April 2022? | Continuous |
| 75.039 | Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022? | Binary |
| 74.751 | Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta? | Binary |
| 74.452 | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 73.743 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 73.665 | Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 73.499 | Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023? | Binary |
| 73.482 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Parham Maghsoodloo) | Binary |
| 73.355 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Leinier Domínguez Pérez) | Binary |
| 72.935 | What will South Africa's Fragile States Index score be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 72.842 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia) | Binary |
| 72.703 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 72.703 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 72.702 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 72.701 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
| 72.698 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 72.602 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 72.599 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
| 72.352 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (GUE-NGL) | Binary |
| 72.352 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ID) | Binary |
| 72.087 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
| 72.087 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
| 72.087 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
| 71.775 | What will be the ratio of 2022 to 2021 average global interest in vertical farming? | Continuous |
| 71.346 | What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 71.250 | Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 71.048 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Greens–EFA) | Binary |
| 71.037 | Will OpenAI Inc. change its mission statement before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 70.631 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado) | Binary |
| 70.257 | Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023? | Binary |
| 70.130 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 69.638 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Wesley So) | Binary |
| 69.622 | How many deaths from terrorism in 2020? | Continuous |
| 69.087 | What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022? | Continuous |
| 68.958 | How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 68.701 | What percent of US adults will report having received an updated COVID booster vaccine for the 2023-2024 season on the following dates? (March 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 68.257 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan) | Binary |
| 68.019 | What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 67.985 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 67.913 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ECR) | Binary |
| 67.661 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Renew) | Binary |
| 67.597 | When will the UK hold its next general election? | Continuous |
| 67.550 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota) | Binary |
| 67.503 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (United States) | Binary |
| 67.243 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace) | Binary |
| 67.143 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 67.143 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
| 67.143 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 67.143 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst) | Binary |
| 67.142 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds) | Binary |
| 67.142 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds) | Binary |
| 67.013 | Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (European Union) | Binary |
| 66.895 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 13, 2024) | Continuous |
| 66.633 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 66.573 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 66.523 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 66.444 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
| 66.416 | Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025? | Binary |
| 65.923 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 65.908 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 65.730 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
| 65.598 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 65.534 | Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| 65.022 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 65.004 | Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025? | Binary |
| 64.904 | What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022? | Continuous |
| 64.786 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
| 64.678 | Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024? | Binary |
| 64.648 | Will 2022 be warmer than 2021? | Binary |
| 64.235 | Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 64.154 | What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 64.029 | Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 63.812 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
| 63.733 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1) | Binary |
| 63.288 | How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022? | Continuous |
| 62.907 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 62.801 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 62.697 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 62.679 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Brazil) | Binary |
| 62.662 | What will the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth be in the G7 countries in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 62.249 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 61.948 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide)) | Binary |
| 61.800 | What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 61.743 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire) | Binary |
| 61.466 | Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 61.325 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 60.832 | When will the percentage of Virginians who have received a booster dose exceed 50%? | Continuous |
| 60.738 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 27, 2024) | Continuous |
| 60.423 | Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session?? | Binary |
| 60.053 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2) | Binary |
| 59.612 | Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023? | Binary |
| 59.475 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alireza Firouzja) | Binary |
| 59.363 | Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 58.836 | Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022? | Binary |
| 58.707 | Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025? | Binary |
| 58.340 | Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 57.973 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Vietnam) | Binary |
| 57.316 | Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)? | Binary |
| 57.193 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 57.167 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023? | Binary |
| 57.146 | By 2023, what will be the quality of the best articles published on the Effective Altruism Wiki? | Continuous |
| 57.094 | Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam? | Binary |
| 56.906 | What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 56.782 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023? | Binary |
| 56.510 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (China) | Binary |
| 56.508 | What will the total worldwide box office gross be for Avatar 2? | Continuous |
| 56.340 | Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025? | Binary |
| 56.315 | Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025? | Binary |
| 56.175 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement? | Binary |
| 56.038 | Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023? | Binary |
| 56.034 | Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024? | Binary |
| 55.912 | By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 55.609 | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 55.532 | What will the Men's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be? | Continuous |
| 54.992 | Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025? | Binary |
| 54.817 | What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024) | Continuous |
| 54.810 | What percent of the world population will use the internet in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 54.382 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024? | Binary |
| 54.279 | Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025? | Binary |
| 54.107 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
| 54.072 | Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022? | Binary |
| 54.046 | What will be the lowest US unemployment rate in 2022? | Continuous |
| 53.896 | Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022? | Binary |
| 53.856 | What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025? | Continuous |
| 53.755 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Thailand) | Binary |
| 53.650 | Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates? | Binary |
| 53.644 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (S&D) | Binary |
| 53.440 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 53.293 | Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025? | Binary |
| 52.961 | Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023? | Binary |
| 52.896 | Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 52.801 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 52.320 | What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 13, 2024) | Continuous |
| 52.232 | When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.? | Continuous |
| 52.217 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 52.150 | Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
| 51.673 | Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election? | Binary |
| 51.263 | In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election? | Binary |
| 51.142 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan) | Binary |
| 50.773 | Will Oil Exports account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024? | Binary |
| 49.371 | What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 49.319 | How many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023? | Continuous |
| 48.676 | Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled? | Binary |
| 48.575 | What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024) | Continuous |
| 48.374 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (New York Knicks) | Binary |
| 48.187 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Missouri for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 48.096 | By 2023, what fraction of total traffic to the Effective Altruism Forum will be traffic to the Effective Altruism Wiki? | Continuous |
| 47.977 | How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 47.935 | Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022? | Binary |
| 47.260 | What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be? | Continuous |
| 46.772 | Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections? | Binary |
| 46.653 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3) | Binary |
| 46.642 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina) | Binary |
| 46.591 | Will an additional state join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 46.090 | Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 46.025 | 5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 45.836 | Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023? | Binary |
| 45.717 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
| 45.383 | How many migrants will die in 2022 trying to cross the Mediterranean? | Continuous |
| 45.348 | Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 45.167 | Will a university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again? | Binary |
| 45.139 | How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2022? | Continuous |
| 45.112 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 45.058 | What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500? | Continuous |
| 44.656 | Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 300 questions? | Binary |
| 44.615 | Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023? | Binary |
| 44.478 | When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human? | Continuous |
| 44.408 | By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 42.907 | What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 42.790 | When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022? | Continuous |
| 42.766 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Washington for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 42.664 | What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 42.584 | Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022? | Binary |
| 42.559 | Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections? | Binary |
| 42.522 | Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024? | Binary |
| 42.358 | Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025? | Binary |
| 41.834 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
| 41.654 | Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023? | Binary |
| 41.555 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 41.176 | What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Min) | Continuous |
| 41.000 | Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025? | Binary |
| 40.915 | Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023? | Binary |
| 40.892 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Anish Giri) | Binary |
| 40.765 | Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022? | Binary |
| 40.220 | Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024? | Binary |
| 40.100 | Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025? | Binary |
| 39.352 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Terry Gou (Independent)) | Binary |
| 39.322 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Houston Rockets) | Binary |
| 39.045 | Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022? | Binary |
| 38.862 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election? | Binary |
| 38.811 | What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025? | Continuous |
| 37.554 | What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID cases in the US between January 1, 2022 to April 1, 2022? | Continuous |
| 37.472 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 37.330 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 37.007 | What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Max) | Continuous |
| 36.740 | Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024? | Binary |
| 36.502 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Chicago Bulls) | Binary |
| 36.266 | What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (Thai AI super rice - Min) | Continuous |
| 36.210 | Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023? | Binary |
| 35.754 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Atlanta Hawks) | Binary |
| 35.704 | Will the "Moon Cube" be shown to be non-natural before 2023? | Binary |
| 35.579 | What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 13, 2024) | Continuous |
| 35.311 | What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 34.791 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Utah Jazz) | Binary |
| 34.160 | Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 300 questions? | Binary |
| 34.024 | Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023? | Binary |
| 33.786 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate & House) | Binary |
| 33.758 | What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 yellow maize - Max) | Continuous |
| 32.937 | When will Australia reach its 80% (of 16+ population) Covid-19 vaccination target? | Continuous |
| 32.812 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate, Dem House) | Binary |
| 32.487 | What percentage of US children under 5-years-old will have at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 32.484 | Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025? | Binary |
| 32.382 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Memphis Grizzlies) | Binary |
| 32.304 | What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (Thai AI super rice - Max) | Continuous |
| 32.206 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Colorado for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 31.976 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake) | Binary |
| 31.915 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Brooklyn Nets) | Binary |
| 31.887 | What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 27, 2024) | Continuous |
| 31.778 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio) | Binary |
| 31.752 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (EPP) | Binary |
| 31.685 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
| 31.550 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey) | Binary |
| 31.544 | Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA before 2025? | Binary |
| 31.436 | What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 27, 2024) | Continuous |
| 31.362 | What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive? | Continuous |
| 31.120 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024) | Continuous |
| 31.109 | What will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022? | Continuous |
| 30.709 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Portland Trail Blazers) | Binary |
| 30.541 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 30.448 | Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 30.312 | What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID deaths in the US before 2022 April 1? | Continuous |
| 29.560 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson) | Binary |
| 29.488 | Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022? | Binary |
| 28.863 | How many eviction cases will be filed in Virginia in Q4 2021? | Continuous |
| 28.527 | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026? | Binary |
| 28.489 | How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 28.485 | What will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022? | Continuous |
| 27.656 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Detroit Pistons) | Binary |
| 27.575 | What will be the percent SOL assessment pass rate in math for Virginian third graders in the 2021-2022? | Continuous |
| 27.398 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Toronto Raptors) | Binary |
| 27.054 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (San Antonio Spurs) | Binary |
| 26.896 | When will Virginia's statewide mask mandate for K-12 schools be rescinded? | Continuous |
| 26.574 | By what percentage will the total US yearly retail sales of plant-based meat in 2022 grow compared to 2020? | Continuous |
| 26.465 | Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 26.413 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 26.370 | Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023? | Binary |
| 26.256 | What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024) | Continuous |
| 26.055 | Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 25.807 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Charlotte Hornets) | Binary |
| 25.719 | Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads? | Binary |
| 25.653 | Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31? | Binary |
| 25.575 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jan-24) | Continuous |
| 25.430 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Bankman-Fried) | Binary |
| 25.415 | Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025? | Binary |
| 25.373 | Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 25.263 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt) | Binary |
| 24.521 | Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023? | Binary |
| 24.110 | When will WHO recommend widespread use of a malaria vaccine that is >75% effective? | Continuous |
| 23.722 | What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based eggs be in the U.S. in 2022? | Continuous |
| 23.705 | What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022? | Continuous |
| 23.236 | What will be the weekly peak percent of medical visits that are for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season? | Continuous |
| 23.170 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 23.088 | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023) | Binary |
| 23.014 | What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 22.915 | Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024? | Binary |
| 22.654 | By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? | Binary |
| 22.406 | When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO? | Continuous |
| 22.372 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 22.305 | What retail market share will plant-based milk make up of the total milk category in the US in 2022? | Continuous |
| 22.036 | What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 21.943 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 21.812 | Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022? | Binary |
| 21.396 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 21.389 | What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose as of 4 May 2022? | Continuous |
| 21.217 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Russia) | Binary |
| 20.871 | Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 20.797 | How many weeks will influenza-like illness (ILI) activity levels be at "high" or above in at least five states during the 2023-2024 season? | Continuous |
| 20.797 | Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 20.740 | Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022? | Binary |
| 20.531 | What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022? | Continuous |
| 20.462 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Washington Wizards) | Binary |
| 19.846 | How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023? | Continuous |
| 19.345 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2025? | Binary |
| 18.882 | What will be the share of people living in countries where same-sex marriage is legal in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 18.570 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Texas for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 18.532 | Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023? | Binary |
| 18.036 | Will UK inflation as expressed by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) exceed 4% before 31 December 2021? | Binary |
| 17.990 | Will the US CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before August 1, 2022? | Binary |
| 17.848 | What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating? | Continuous |
| 17.742 | Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 100 questions? | Binary |
| 17.585 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
| 17.250 | Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 17.135 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (RSV) | Continuous |
| 17.117 | When will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022? | Continuous |
| 16.724 | Will Belfast (2021) win the 2022 Best Picture Oscar? | Binary |
| 16.587 | Will Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024? | Binary |
| 16.454 | How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in April 2022? | Continuous |
| 15.446 | Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024? | Binary |
| 15.268 | When will OpenAI release an AI that significantly improves on GPT-4's factual accuracy? | Continuous |
| 15.247 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Gukesh Dommaraju) | Binary |
| 15.239 | Will Norway leave EEA before 2025? | Binary |
| 15.036 | By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis? | Binary |
| 14.731 | When will the FDA authorize an oral antiviral treatment for SARS-CoV-2? | Continuous |
| 13.364 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Florida for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 13.118 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
| 11.680 | Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? | Binary |
| 11.673 | What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022? | Continuous |
| 11.661 | Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election? | Binary |
| 11.263 | What will be the average unemployment in the US from January 2022 to December 2024? | Continuous |
| 9.945 | Before 2025, will the US FDA authorize use of an at-home over-the-counter rapid test for influenza? | Binary |
| 9.608 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Vulcan Centaur) | Continuous |
| 9.378 | Will Labour have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election? | Binary |
| 9.143 | Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023? | Binary |
| 8.950 | What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 27, 2024) | Continuous |
| 8.550 | What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI? | Continuous |
| 8.228 | Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024? | Binary |
| 8.226 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt) | Binary |
| 8.226 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella) | Binary |
| 8.072 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy) | Binary |
| 8.000 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever) | Binary |
| 7.961 | Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023? | Binary |
| 7.198 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati) | Binary |
| 7.031 | If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 6.987 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate, Rep House) | Binary |
| 6.964 | When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users? | Continuous |
| 6.253 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| 6.145 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Emmett Shear) | Binary |
| 6.038 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York) | Binary |
| 5.552 | Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match? | Binary |
| 4.949 | When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring? | Continuous |
| 4.691 | Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024? | Binary |
| 4.252 | Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections? | Binary |
| 4.238 | Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024? | Binary |
| 4.115 | Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020? | Binary |
| 4.001 | Will a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022? | Binary |
| 3.700 | Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023? | Binary |
| 3.595 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Nishad Singh) | Binary |
| 3.415 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat) | Continuous |
| 3.139 | What will total oil demand globally be in 2021? | Continuous |
| 2.765 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman) | Binary |
| 2.666 | Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023? | Binary |
| 2.454 | What will the total amount of worldwide venture capital funding in quantum computing be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 1.979 | Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025? | Binary |
| 1.904 | When will the next German government be formed? | Continuous |
| 1.534 | When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA? | Continuous |
| 1.515 | By 2023, how many words of content will have been published on the Effective Altruism Wiki? | Continuous |
| 1.063 | Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 1.051 | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (K. Starmer (Labour)) | Binary |
| 1.023 | Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026? | Binary |
| 1.010 | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (R. Sunak (Tories)) | Binary |
| 0.730 | What will China’s GDP be in 2023? | Continuous |
| 0.623 | When will Google Bard be generally available in the European Union? | Continuous |
| 0.359 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 0.346 | What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2022? | Continuous |
| 0.262 | What is the %reduction in the secondary transmission of Delta from infected vaccinated individuals compared to infected unvaccinated individuals, according to the mean of the first 3 relevant studies? | Continuous |
| 0.241 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output Yes) | Binary |
| 0.164 | Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11? | Binary |
| 0.112 | When will the pre-August 2022 peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia occur? | Continuous |
| 0.050 | Will a Navy ship be captured, scuttled, sunk, or critically damaged in the Black Sea before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.029 | How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes? | Continuous |
| -0.035 | Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023? | Binary |
| -0.387 | How many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025? | Continuous |
| -0.703 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023? | Binary |
| -1.924 | What will the number of active volcanos be in 2022? | Continuous |
| -2.081 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output No) | Binary |
| -2.617 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona) | Binary |
| -2.992 | Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024? | Binary |
| -6.452 | What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022? | Continuous |
| -6.499 | What percentage of new COVID-19 deaths that occur before 1 August 2022 will be in long-term care facilities? | Continuous |
| -7.431 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada) | Binary |
| -8.698 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative) | Continuous |
| -9.576 | Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024? | Binary |
| -9.620 | Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| -10.689 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Missouri) | Continuous |
| -11.463 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| -13.301 | Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024? | Binary |
| -13.457 | Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025? | Binary |
| -13.587 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Illinois for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| -14.691 | Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025? | Binary |
| -15.019 | What will be the minimum Antartic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -17.964 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel) | Binary |
| -19.323 | By 2023, how fast will the Effective Altruism Wiki have grown relative to the LessWrong Wiki? | Continuous |
| -19.366 | By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| -19.638 | Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023? | Binary |
| -20.631 | Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025? | Binary |
| -21.687 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House) | Binary |
| -24.481 | What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -25.044 | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | Binary |
| -25.924 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| -26.292 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (India) | Binary |
| -27.367 | In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received? | Binary |
| -30.055 | Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (Israel) | Binary |
| -31.353 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026? | Binary |
| -31.682 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
| -32.034 | Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| -32.374 | Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023? | Binary |
| -32.494 | Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
| -34.705 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Pennsylvania for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| -35.895 | Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025? | Binary |
| -36.006 | Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024? | Binary |
| -38.813 | What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022? | Continuous |
| -39.683 | Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023? | Binary |
| -42.069 | Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
| -42.463 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
New York for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| -44.700 | What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based foods in the U.S. be in 2022? | Continuous |
| -44.888 | What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021? | Continuous |
| -46.266 | Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025? | Binary |
| -48.118 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan) | Binary |
| -48.551 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Missouri for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| -53.309 | What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022? | Continuous |
| -54.059 | What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 21st of January, 2022? | Continuous |
| -57.879 | Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Binary |
| -58.488 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour) | Continuous |
| -60.007 | Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (United States) | Binary |
| -60.955 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Massachusetts for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| -61.207 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -61.300 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested) | Binary |
| -62.876 | By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be "alive"? | Binary |
| -77.437 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party) | Continuous |
| -80.851 | Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022? | Binary |
| -88.778 | How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022? | Continuous |
| -97.226 | Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025? | Binary |
| -102.441 | Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022? | Binary |
| -128.524 | Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025? | Binary |
| -131.252 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| -156.273 | What will be the maximum Antartic sea ice extent in these years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -193.641 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| -195.918 | Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023? | Binary |
| -210.357 | Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022? | Binary |