98.790 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
98.712 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
96.449 | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
95.174 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
94.599 | Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? | Binary |
94.564 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
94.377 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
93.382 | How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
91.091 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
89.829 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
89.596 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
89.430 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
88.451 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
88.284 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025? | Binary |
86.130 | Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
85.715 | Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024? | Binary |
84.140 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
84.046 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
79.809 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
79.636 | When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally? | Continuous |
79.564 | Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
79.025 | Meaningful commitments from UK AI Summit? (No) → ChatGPT available in Europe on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
77.597 | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
77.500 | Will Tether collapse before 2025? | Binary |
76.578 | Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU? | Binary |
76.471 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
76.471 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
76.445 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
76.203 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
75.622 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
75.519 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
75.134 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
75.132 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
74.915 | 5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
74.752 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
74.293 | Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023? | Binary |
73.086 | Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022? | Binary |
71.726 | Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
71.567 | Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025? | Binary |
71.270 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
70.701 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa) | Binary |
70.002 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska) | Binary |
69.183 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
69.169 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
69.169 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
69.169 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
69.167 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas) | Binary |
69.069 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
68.768 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
68.661 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio) | Binary |
68.609 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
68.533 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
68.511 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
68.469 | How many active United Nations peacekeeping missions will there be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
68.434 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
68.407 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
68.264 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
68.264 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
68.264 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds) | Binary |
68.264 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds) | Binary |
68.247 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
68.122 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace) | Binary |
68.052 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
67.683 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst) | Binary |
67.621 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
67.394 | Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025? | Binary |
66.891 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
66.753 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia) | Binary |
66.139 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025) | Binary |
65.924 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake) | Binary |
65.364 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
65.364 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
65.054 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
64.835 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
64.621 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
64.326 | Will 2022 be the hottest year on record? | Binary |
64.255 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida) | Binary |
63.868 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
63.361 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado) | Binary |
63.104 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
63.055 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire) | Binary |
62.851 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023? | Binary |
62.605 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota) | Binary |
61.286 | What will be the average unemployment in the US from January 2022 to December 2024? | Continuous |
61.216 | What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022? | Continuous |
61.204 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
59.590 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide)) | Binary |
59.171 | What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
58.986 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
58.893 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
58.873 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
58.857 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
58.783 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
58.726 | What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022? | Continuous |
58.715 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
58.592 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
58.071 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
57.955 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
57.330 | When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify? | Continuous |
56.890 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | Binary |
56.518 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
56.400 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
55.904 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik) | Binary |
55.823 | When will the Republican presidential nominee next win the state of Massachusetts in a US Presidential Election? (2024) | Binary |
55.822 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
54.552 | How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022? | Continuous |
54.537 | Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025? | Binary |
53.508 | What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500? | Continuous |
53.463 | What will the world population be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
53.102 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
51.963 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt) | Binary |
50.397 | What will be the British male life expectancy at birth in 2021 according to the UK Office of National Statistics? | Continuous |
49.988 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
48.579 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson) | Binary |
48.248 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Jun-2024) | Continuous |
48.172 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
48.055 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
47.017 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio) | Binary |
45.448 | By 2023, what fraction of total traffic to the Effective Altruism Forum will be traffic to the Effective Altruism Wiki? | Continuous |
45.434 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
45.329 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
43.818 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
43.453 | What will the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth be in the G7 countries in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
40.695 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Jul-2024) | Continuous |
40.041 | Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025? | Binary |
39.467 | What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
39.411 | Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024? | Binary |
39.367 | How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022? | Continuous |
38.446 | What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
36.595 | Will any state hold a caucus instead of a primary for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2024? | Binary |
36.074 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey) | Binary |
35.185 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (May-2024) | Continuous |
34.158 | Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025? | Binary |
34.098 | What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
33.153 | How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
32.903 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
31.677 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina) | Binary |
31.478 | What will the price of oil be for December 2022? | Continuous |
29.754 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
27.557 | What percent of the world population will use the internet in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
27.042 | What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
25.618 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
25.507 | What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
25.261 | What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
25.062 | How many migrants will die in 2022 trying to cross the Mediterranean? | Continuous |
24.593 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York) | Binary |
23.786 | What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022? | Continuous |
22.697 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
22.661 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
22.353 | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
22.279 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
20.754 | What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
20.197 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Apr-2024) | Continuous |
19.885 | What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2024) | Continuous |
18.856 | Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
18.530 | What will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022? | Continuous |
17.609 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD)) | Binary |
17.230 | Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
14.414 | Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections? | Binary |
14.333 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD)) | Binary |
13.125 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
13.070 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD)) | Binary |
12.077 | Will a university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again? | Binary |
11.898 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2025? | Binary |
11.856 | Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election? | Binary |
10.904 | Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023? | Binary |
10.542 | Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023? | Binary |
9.517 | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023) | Binary |
7.985 | Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025? | Binary |
6.715 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Borussia Dortmund) | Binary |
5.040 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Futbol Club Barcelona) | Binary |
5.040 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Manchester City Football Club) | Binary |
5.010 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Atlético Newell's Old Boys) | Binary |
4.996 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Al-Hilal Saudi Football Club) | Binary |
4.900 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Internacional de Fútbol Miami) | Binary |
4.851 | What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
4.845 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia) | Binary |
4.525 | What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025? | Continuous |
3.706 | Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024? | Binary |
3.103 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election? | Binary |
2.840 | Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
2.423 | Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022? | Binary |
2.302 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Bayern Munich) | Binary |
2.193 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Paris Saint-Germain) | Binary |
2.188 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Rams) | Binary |
2.013 | Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election? | Binary |
1.903 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Detroit Lions) | Binary |
1.500 | What will President Joe Biden's net approval rating be on November 1, 2024? | Continuous |
1.445 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Pittsburgh Steelers) | Binary |
1.399 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Kansas City Chiefs) | Binary |
1.371 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Buffalo Bills) | Binary |
1.228 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Miami Dolphins) | Binary |
0.800 | Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023? | Binary |
0.377 | Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023? | Binary |
0.357 | Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
0.262 | What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022? | Continuous |
0.204 | Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections? | Binary |
0.123 | Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
0.071 | Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022? | Binary |
0.011 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Seattle Seahawks) | Binary |
0.010 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New Orleans Saints) | Binary |
0.000 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Philadelphia Eagles) | Binary |
-0.365 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | Binary |
-0.496 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Cleveland Browns) | Binary |
-0.666 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Houston Texans) | Binary |
-0.967 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona) | Binary |
-1.576 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Dallas Cowboys) | Binary |
-2.141 | Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024? | Binary |
-3.846 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
-4.321 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Green Bay Packers) | Binary |
-6.828 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Madrid) | Binary |
-11.051 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada) | Binary |
-12.598 | Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025? | Binary |
-12.608 | What will US inflation be in 2022? | Continuous |
-13.089 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
-16.345 | Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025? | Binary |
-16.810 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
-20.202 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
-21.687 | What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years? (2023) | Continuous |
-24.421 | Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023? | Binary |
-28.043 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan) | Binary |
-30.546 | Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024? | Binary |
-32.142 | Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
-37.878 | By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be "alive"? | Binary |
-45.641 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
-49.793 | What will be the share of people living in countries where same-sex marriage is legal in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
-51.781 | How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022? | Continuous |
-78.685 | Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022? | Binary |
-93.830 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
-95.821 | Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025? | Binary |
-110.887 | In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received? | Binary |
-125.038 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
-158.476 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |