stanulamstan

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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5.999k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
104.467	How many gold medals will the United States win at the 2022 International Math Olympiad?	Continuous
99.195	Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?	Binary
98.189	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024?	Binary
98.187	What will Lebanon's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?	Continuous
97.982	Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?	Binary
96.526	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
96.424	What place will the United States get at the 2022 International Mathematical Olympiad?	Continuous
96.265	Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?	Binary
95.815	Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?	Binary
95.758	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
95.682	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
95.682	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
95.682	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
95.682	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
95.682	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
95.682	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
95.682	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
95.497	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
95.161	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
94.040	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
92.972	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
92.830	Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023?	Binary
92.327	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government)	Binary
90.447	Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?	Binary
89.669	Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?	Binary
88.606	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power)	Binary
88.484	Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?	Binary
87.746	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025)	Binary
86.318	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas)	Binary
85.951	Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?	Binary
85.471	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah)	Binary
85.128	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
85.011	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan)	Binary
83.820	Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?	Binary
83.712	What will South Africa's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?	Continuous
82.160	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
81.384	In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?	Binary
81.065	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
80.935	Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?	Binary
80.214	Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
80.074	Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?	Binary
79.374	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
79.050	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie)	Binary
79.050	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney)	Binary
76.167	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
75.943	Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?	Binary
75.653	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
71.974	Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?	Binary
71.178	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022?	Continuous
70.436	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
69.272	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
67.379	Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023?	Binary
67.319	Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?	Binary
66.866	Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?	Binary
66.006	By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?	Binary
65.488	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
64.840	Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?	Binary
64.823	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
64.392	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
60.898	How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
60.159	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
59.947	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
58.221	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
57.513	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
57.200	Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024?	Binary
56.764	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
56.735	Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?	Binary
54.366	Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?	Binary
52.654	Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?	Binary
50.706	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
50.706	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
50.706	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
49.651	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
48.098	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
47.925	Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?	Binary
46.813	What will the price of oil be for December 2022?	Continuous
46.686	How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023?	Continuous
42.471	What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022?	Continuous
40.320	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
37.749	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
33.245	Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
31.718	Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled?	Binary
31.575	Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?	Binary
30.203	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?	Binary
29.619	Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023?	Binary
25.532	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?	Binary
24.820	Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?	Binary
24.734	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
23.690	Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?	Binary
23.399	Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?	Binary
23.174	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
22.573	Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?	Binary
22.224	Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?	Binary
22.025	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
22.017	Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
21.532	Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?	Binary
21.223	Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
20.977	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023?	Binary
20.458	Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?	Binary
18.881	Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023?	Binary
16.733	What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500?	Continuous
16.188	Will Sweden join NATO before 2025?	Binary
14.811	Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?	Binary
14.793	Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?	Binary
14.217	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?	Binary
12.954	Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?	Binary
12.870	Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025?	Binary
12.448	Will India sign the Artemis Accords before 2025?	Binary
12.077	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
11.777	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
10.824	Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?	Binary
9.851	Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?	Binary
4.364	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024)	Binary
4.013	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
3.276	Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024?	Binary
1.567	Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?	Binary
0.666	Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026?	Binary
0.393	Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?	Binary
0.121	Will the Taliban capture downtown Kandahar before the start of Ramadan?	Binary
-	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
-	Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?	Binary
-	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024?	Binary
-	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
-	Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Binary
-0.094	Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections?	Binary
-0.778	How many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025?	Continuous
-0.849	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-2.945	What will US inflation be in 2022?	Continuous
-3.222	Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?	Binary
-4.414	What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
-6.197	Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025?	Binary
-6.996	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
-9.880	Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
-10.501	Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?	Binary
-11.041	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel)	Binary
-12.554	Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-13.713	Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?	Binary
-15.847	Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?	Binary
-18.316	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
-18.886	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
-29.091	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (Israel)	Binary
-46.114	How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022?	Continuous
-62.066	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House)	Binary
-69.900	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
-204.197	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested)	Binary
-220.335	Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026?	Binary