will_aldred

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2022

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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10.26k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
122.447	What will be the maximum price reached for Ethereum by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
107.340	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Apr 16)	Continuous
98.669	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
96.883	Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
96.882	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
94.996	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Bolivia)	Binary
94.996	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Nicaragua)	Binary
94.596	Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?	Binary
93.991	What will be the percentage of ED visits with COVID-Like Illness (CLI) symptoms in Virginia for the week ending April 16th, 2022?	Continuous
93.836	Will Éric Zemmour win the French presidential election in 2022?	Binary
93.584	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Guatemala)	Binary
93.579	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?	Binary
92.744	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (May 14)	Continuous
92.158	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (El Salvador)	Binary
92.157	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Honduras)	Binary
91.947	Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
91.880	How many subscribers will the Effective Altruism subreddit have on January 1, 2023?	Continuous
91.778	By December 31, 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?	Binary
90.637	Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?	Binary
90.550	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?	Binary
90.377	Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?	Binary
89.835	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Apr 30)	Continuous
89.550	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?	Binary
88.848	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection in 2022?	Binary
88.124	Will average semiconductor chip lead times (amount of time between order and delivery) drop to below 15 weeks at any point before July 1, 2022?	Binary
87.490	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
87.448	Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
87.325	Will China make a successful, major cyberattack on Taiwanese critical infrastructure before December 31, 2022?	Binary
87.097	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (May 14)	Continuous
86.987	Will a cyber action or series of cyber actions trigger NATO’s Article 5 in 2022?	Binary
85.634	Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?	Binary
85.346	Will Elizabeth Kim win the Democratic primary for New York's 10th congressional district in 2022?	Binary
85.312	What will be the percentage of ED visits with COVID-Like Illness (CLI) symptoms in Virginia for the week ending April 2nd, 2022?	Continuous
85.291	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
84.506	Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
84.313	Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
84.229	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Mar 19)	Continuous
84.086	What will be the reported number of 7-day average new Covid-19 cases in Mainland China on 2022-02-28?	Continuous
82.302	Will at least four REvil gang members be in prison on May 15, 2022?	Binary
81.860	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Apr 16)	Continuous
81.262	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 22nd of April, 2022?	Continuous
80.604	Will any single cyberattack in 2022 result in damages over $10 billion?	Binary
80.579	Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?	Binary
80.358	How many seats will Democrats win in the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Continuous
80.351	Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut the Kerch Strait Cable before 2023?	Binary
79.167	Will Twitter's board accept an acquisition offer from someone other than Elon Musk before 2023?	Binary
79.158	By February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope successfully see First Light?	Binary
77.803	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on May 13, 2022?	Continuous
77.699	Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut an undersea internet cable before 2023?	Binary
77.567	Will Liverpool win the 2021-2022 Premier League?	Binary
76.992	How much will China spend on importing diodes and semiconductors in 2022?	Continuous
76.829	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?	Binary
76.545	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Feb 19)	Continuous
76.492	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 15h of April, 2022?	Continuous
76.313	Will the weights of the 175B parameter model be made publicly available via a leak or hack by 2023?	Binary
76.062	Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?	Binary
75.754	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Feb 5)	Continuous
75.130	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between April 29, 2022 and July 22, 2022?	Continuous
74.188	How many US troops will be in Europe on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
73.571	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before May 20, 2022?	Binary
73.337	Will a cyberattack using the Log4J exploit cause $20 million in damage to a single target before September 1, 2022?	Binary
73.101	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on May 6, 2022?	Continuous
73.084	On how many days in 2022 will U.S. hospital admissions (for COVID) exceed the pre-2022 peak?	Continuous
72.211	Will the Senate Commerce committee reach an agreement on preemption for a federal data security and data privacy law in 2022?	Binary
71.901	Will there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)?	Binary
71.668	Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
71.037	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
70.660	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Mar 5)	Continuous
70.145	Will Facebook decide to make the weights of the 175B parameter model publicly available before 2023?	Binary
69.399	Will there be a successful cyberattack on the 2022 FIFA World Cup?	Binary
69.118	Will Xi Jinping be re-elected paramount leader in 2022?	Binary
67.936	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Apr 30)	Continuous
67.251	Will Ron DeSantis be re-elected as Governor of Florida in 2022?	Binary
66.535	How much crude oil will the US import from Russia in 2022?	Continuous
65.976	Will it become public that the United States launched a cyber attack between Jan 1, 2022 and April 30, 2022 against infrastructure associated with Russian cyber operators or proxies?	Binary
65.741	Will there be an armed conflict in the South China Sea before 2023?	Binary
65.086	Before 2023, will Joe Biden announce that he will not run for president in 2024?	Binary
65.063	Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?	Binary
64.301	Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
63.953	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 2,000 before July 22, 2022?	Binary
63.793	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Feb 5)	Continuous
62.789	Will EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
62.234	Will any Fields Medal winner boycott ICM 2022 for political reasons?	Binary
60.988	Will a cyberattack directly cause one or more deaths in 2022?	Binary
60.897	How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections?	Continuous
59.888	Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023?	Binary
58.937	In the next round of FITARA (Federal Information Technology Acquisition Reform Act) scoring, will the median cyber grade for the covered federal departments and agencies come out as a “B-” or higher?	Binary
58.406	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between April 8th, 2022 and July 1st, 2022?	Continuous
58.276	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on March 25, 2022?	Continuous
57.583	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?	Binary
57.460	When will Paxlovid be given FDA authorization or approval for patients who are not high-risk?	Continuous
57.296	Will Niger experience a coup before 2023?	Binary
57.057	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 1st of April, 2022?	Continuous
55.924	In 2022, how many people will be charged by US DOJ with seditious conspiracy in connection with the Jan 6 Capitol attack?	Continuous
55.836	Will a cyberattack target a major system's data integrity before July 1, 2022?	Binary
55.721	Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022?	Binary
52.713	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 25th of March, 2022?	Continuous
52.548	Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022?	Binary
52.521	What will be the 7-day average of % people wearing masks most or all of the time in public in Virginia on April 15th, 2022?	Continuous
52.174	Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
51.949	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 4th of March, 2022?	Continuous
51.707	How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in 2022?	Continuous
51.687	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
51.261	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (May 14)	Continuous
51.160	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 6th of May, 2022?	Continuous
51.120	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?	Binary
51.035	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 11th of March, 2022?	Continuous
50.994	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,500 before July 1, 2022?	Binary
50.065	Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?	Binary
49.898	How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022?	Continuous
49.290	How much crude oil will the US hold in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as of December 2022?	Continuous
49.109	Will Stacey Abrams be elected Governor of Georgia in 2022?	Binary
48.858	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Feb 19)	Continuous
48.842	Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022?	Binary
48.823	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 4th, 2022?	Continuous
48.803	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between April 29, 2022 and July 22, 2022?	Continuous
48.441	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on April 1, 2022?	Continuous
48.198	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
47.989	Will the New York Times place Wordle (or any currently existing part of Wordle) behind a paywall during 2022?	Binary
47.913	Will Leondra Kruger be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
47.796	Will Tether collapse before 2023?	Binary
47.775	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between April 8th, 2022 and July 1st, 2022?	Continuous
47.515	Will a new zero day vulnerability be exploited against and result in the compromise of 100 million Americans’ personal information by June 30, 2022?	Binary
46.884	How many Japanese Encephalitis deaths will there be in Australia before July 2022?	Continuous
46.835	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022?	Continuous
45.982	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
45.750	Will Éric Zemmour be in the 2nd round of the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
45.732	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on Mar 4, 2022?	Continuous
45.398	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Ben Wallace)	Binary
45.398	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Nadhim Zahawi)	Binary
45.398	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Steve Baker)	Binary
45.398	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Dominic Raab)	Binary
45.398	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Suella Braverman)	Binary
45.398	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Kemi Badenoch)	Binary
45.398	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Grant Shapps)	Binary
45.397	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Sajid Javid)	Binary
45.326	Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
44.608	Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022?	Binary
44.220	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on February 11th, 2022?	Continuous
44.116	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on May 13, 2022?	Continuous
43.550	Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022?	Binary
43.513	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Feb 19)	Continuous
43.328	Will Princeton cancel in person classes in January 2022?	Binary
42.630	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Feb 5)	Continuous
42.452	Will Russian or Belarusian troops cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts before 2023?	Binary
42.413	How many civilian casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War will there be before May 2022?	Continuous
41.440	Will Beto O'Rourke win the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election?	Binary
41.367	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Apr 16)	Continuous
41.339	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on Feb, 11 2022?	Continuous
41.136	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 500 before May 20, 2022?	Binary
41.028	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on May 27, 2022?	Continuous
40.977	Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 before 2023?	Binary
40.849	Will the US Government designate Russia a "State Sponsor of Terrorism" by 2023?	Binary
40.626	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
40.115	[Short Fuse] How much money will be awarded to Johnny Depp in his defamation suit against his ex-wife Amber Heard?	Continuous
40.082	Will Governor Newsom be Reelected Governor of California in 2022?	Binary
39.761	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022?	Continuous
39.148	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Feb 18, 2022?	Continuous
38.937	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (May 29, 2022)	Continuous
38.682	Will Rick Caruso be elected Mayor of Los Angeles in 2022?	Binary
38.546	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
38.504	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Feb 19)	Continuous
38.444	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Jan 22)	Continuous
38.358	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on April 22nd, 2022?	Continuous
37.258	Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022?	Binary
37.104	Will Queen Elizabeth II abdicate in 2022?	Binary
36.704	Will Carrick Flynn win the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
36.652	What will the estimated cybersecurity workforce gap for the United States be on October 15, 2022?	Continuous
36.527	If Russia vetoes the UN Security Council vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, will the UN General Assembly override the veto?	Binary
35.497	Will an Eliciting Latent Knowledge prize of $50,000 be awarded?	Binary
35.065	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 11th of February, 2022?	Continuous
34.616	What will be the market capitalization of Netflix on December 1, 2022?	Continuous
34.328	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on April 1st, 2022?	Continuous
33.855	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Michael Gove)	Binary
33.854	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
33.854	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Priti Patel)	Binary
33.854	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
33.854	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Tom Tugendhat)	Binary
33.854	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Penny Mordaunt)	Binary
33.768	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 11th, 2022?	Continuous
33.663	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Jan 22)	Continuous
33.582	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on May 27, 2022?	Continuous
33.144	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Feb 5)	Continuous
32.997	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Jan 28, 2022?	Continuous
32.978	Will James Charles have more than 25 million Youtube subscribers by January 1, 2023?	Binary
32.197	How many Virginia counties will have their COVID-19 Community Level classified as 'High' as of April 14th update?	Continuous
32.124	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in the United States as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
31.731	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Mar 5)	Continuous
31.203	How many countries will confirm at least one case of monkeypox by July 31, 2022?	Continuous
31.181	Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?	Binary
31.064	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
30.995	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (December 17)	Continuous
30.144	Will the British pound trade below $1 before 2023?	Binary
30.023	What will be Virginia’s weekly peak of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 May 2022?	Continuous
29.227	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Liz Truss)	Binary
28.881	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Mar 5)	Continuous
28.851	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Canada as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
28.502	Will J.D. Vance win the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio?	Binary
28.079	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Apr 30)	Continuous
28.064	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Jan 22)	Continuous
27.980	Will Ron Johnson win the 2022 Wisconsin US Senate election?	Binary
27.335	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Mar 19)	Continuous
27.120	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults answered “Yes” to the statement, “Do you think it could ever be possible for robots/AIs to be sentient?”	Continuous
26.821	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 750 before July 1, 2022?	Binary
26.750	Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
26.244	Will Pakistan default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
26.208	Will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) exceed 60 on any single day in 2022?	Binary
24.890	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on March 11, 2022?	Continuous
24.866	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Feb 19)	Continuous
24.574	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 28th of January, 2022?	Continuous
24.393	What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in December 2022?	Continuous
23.943	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?	Binary
23.212	Will the US executive branch attempt to ban or otherwise further limit ransomware payments in 2022?	Binary
22.807	Will the U.S. Congress pass legislation authorizing at least $50 billion to the semiconductor industry before May 1, 2022?	Binary
21.801	What will be the total number of fish that Fish Welfare Initiative (FWI) claims to have helped by 2023?	Continuous
21.259	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before June 10, 2022?	Binary
21.112	Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?	Binary
20.626	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between April 29, 2022 and July 22, 2022?	Continuous
20.558	Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?	Binary
20.400	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023?	Binary
17.442	Will North Korea have internet failures on 4 or more days between March 8, 2022 and August 1, 2022?	Binary
17.287	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (December 17)	Continuous
16.260	Will more than 20,000 people die within 28 days of a positive Covid test in the UK in 2022?	Binary
16.199	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Europe as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
15.672	Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
15.612	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (May 29, 2022)	Continuous
15.326	What will be the price of 1 ETH on the following dates? (December 31, 2022)	Continuous
15.050	Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
14.643	What will be Putin's approval rating value 3 months after the potential invasion of Ukraine?	Continuous
14.343	Will a popular online identity verification service be breached in 2022?	Binary
14.105	How many smallsat launches will there be in 2022?	Continuous
13.897	Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev exit the Presidency of Kazakhstan in 2022?	Binary
13.610	Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
13.308	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, "Robots/AIs may be harmful to future generations of people."?	Continuous
13.063	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Jan 22)	Continuous
12.622	Will the European Central Bank raise interest rates in 2022?	Binary
12.470	Will there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)?	Binary
12.365	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 500 before June 10, 2022?	Binary
12.351	Will Ukraine win the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest?	Binary
12.334	Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
11.967	Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?	Binary
11.280	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before July 22, 2022?	Binary
11.222	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Mar 19)	Continuous
11.092	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022?	Continuous
9.938	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Apr 16)	Continuous
9.583	Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	Binary
9.478	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Mar 5)	Continuous
8.872	What will the price of ETH be on Dec 2, 2022 at noon EST?	Continuous
8.867	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Mar 5)	Continuous
8.309	Will any of the ongoing BioNTech mRNA cancer vaccine trials proceed to Phase III trials in 2022?	Binary
8.295	When will China end Covid Zero?	Continuous
8.266	Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?	Binary
7.875	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Mar 19)	Continuous
7.827	If Russia invades Ukraine in 2022, when will the invasion be acknowledged by Russia or the UN?	Continuous
7.519	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (December 3)	Continuous
7.456	Will the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest be won by a country that is, at the time, also a member of the European Union?	Binary
6.812	[short-fuse] Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
6.578	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Morocco)	Binary
6.474	Will the Buffalo Bills play in Super Bowl LVI?	Binary
6.429	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Jan 22)	Continuous
6.407	Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
6.341	How many border crossings leaving Ukraine will there be in 2022?	Continuous
6.228	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Teimour Radjabov)	Binary
6.227	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Richárd Rapport)	Binary
6.024	How many people in Russia will be arrested for participating in anti-war protests before 2023?	Continuous
5.756	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda)	Binary
5.755	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Alireza Firouzja)	Binary
5.755	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Hikaru Nakamura)	Binary
5.754	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Ding Liren)	Binary
5.732	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Croatia)	Binary
5.560	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Ian Nepomniachtchi)	Binary
5.504	Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?	Binary
5.459	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Fabiano Caruana)	Binary
5.433	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022?	Continuous
5.415	Will Jaedon Whyte qualify for the USA IMO team before 2023?	Binary
5.135	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Apr 2)	Continuous
5.067	Will Gotabaya Rajapaksa no longer be the President of Sri Lanka before 2023?	Binary
4.336	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Portugal)	Binary
4.320	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (France)	Binary
4.295	What percent of global organizations will experience a successful email-based phishing attack in 2022?	Continuous
4.274	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Netherlands)	Binary
4.260	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (England)	Binary
3.775	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 25th, 2022?	Continuous
3.447	Will a Republican be elected governor of Maryland in 2022?	Binary
3.301	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between April 29 and July 22, 2022?	Continuous
3.211	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Switzerland)	Binary
2.823	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Feb 5)	Continuous
2.749	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (South Korea)	Binary
2.684	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Japan)	Binary
2.437	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Spain)	Binary
2.393	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Brazil)	Binary
2.280	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Senegal)	Binary
2.221	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Poland)	Binary
2.194	Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
1.824	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Australia)	Binary
1.735	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (United States of America)	Binary
1.369	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Cameroon)	Binary
1.369	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Serbia)	Binary
1.341	Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
1.297	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Ghana)	Binary
1.297	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay)	Binary
1.109	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between April 8th and July 1st 2022?	Continuous
0.896	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Costa Rica)	Binary
0.872	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy's image appear on the cover of Time's 2022 Person of the Year issue, more prominently than any other person's image?	Binary
0.842	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Germany)	Binary
0.823	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Belgium)	Binary
0.689	Will David Segal win the RI-2 Democratic primary?	Binary
0.620	Will Mehmet Oz win the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania?	Binary
0.536	Will Omicron XE be the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the US before June 19, 2022?	Binary
0.345	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Saudi Arabia)	Binary
0.345	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Mexico)	Binary
0.345	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Denmark)	Binary
0.345	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Tunisia)	Binary
-	Before 2022-04-01, will martial law be on in any five federal subjects of Russia excluding all the territories annexed after 2013?	Binary
-	Will the US claim that a Russian disinformation campaign attempted to influence the 2022 midterm elections?	Binary
-	Will there be a bilateral ceasefire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2023?	Binary
-	Will the Metaculus question about Russian troops in Kyiv in 2022 resolve ambiguously?	Binary
-0.065	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between March 18th, 2022 and June 10th, 2022?	Continuous
-0.264	What percentage of the vote share will Carrick Flynn receive in the OR-6 Democratic primary?	Continuous
-0.760	How many states in the United States will report having a case of monkeypox as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
-0.817	By December 31, 2022, will Twitter agree to be taken private by Elon Musk?	Binary
-0.960	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
-1.478	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Apr 2)	Continuous
-1.857	Will the ceasefire in Yemen hold for its intended duration?	Binary
-2.669	Will there be a female Fields Medalist in 2022?	Binary
-2.870	Will Sarah Palin be elected as US Representative for Alaska in 2022?	Binary
-3.053	How many additional Eliciting Latent Knowledge prizes will be awarded?	Continuous
-3.226	If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023?	Binary
-3.811	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Mar 5)	Continuous
-5.344	When will the Apple Watch Series 8 be available for pre-order?	Continuous
-6.470	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Feb 5)	Continuous
-7.940	Will an impactful penetration of a software supply chain be discovered by a party other than themselves in 2022?	Binary
-8.701	Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-8.875	What will be Virginia’s weekly peak of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 May 2022?	Continuous
-10.186	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Argentina)	Binary
-10.206	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Feb 19)	Continuous
-10.210	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between April 9, 2022 and July 2, 2022?	Continuous
-10.944	Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-10.968	When will desktop Intel Arc Alchemist GPUs launch?	Continuous
-11.576	Will Blake Masters win the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona?	Binary
-12.151	What percent of ransomware victims whose data was encrypted will report paying a ransom in 2022?	Continuous
-12.431	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (November 19)	Continuous
-12.915	[short fuse] Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in 2022?	Binary
-13.703	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (November 19)	Continuous
-13.758	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Apr 16)	Continuous
-15.883	Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?	Binary
-19.604	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Jan 22)	Continuous
-19.632	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (May 14)	Continuous
-20.439	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “I support granting legal rights to sentient robots/AIs.”?	Continuous
-22.012	Will a DDoS attack of greater than 3.5TPS occur in 2022?	Binary
-25.665	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Mar 19)	Continuous
-26.433	Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?	Binary
-26.617	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Mar 19)	Continuous
-27.405	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-28.597	Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022?	Binary
-32.923	How many cyberattacks on Ukrainian infrastructure will be conducted by Russian-based hackers between March 1, 2022 and June 1, 2022?	Continuous
-32.951	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
-34.393	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “I support a global ban on the development of sentience in robots/AIs.”?	Continuous
-40.444	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Apr 2)	Continuous
-46.048	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
-48.653	Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
-50.502	Will Solana be in the top-10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on December 31, 2022?	Binary
-51.112	How many troops of the NATO Response Force will deploy to the frontline states in 2022?	Continuous
-52.223	What will total NATO defense spending be in 2022?	Continuous
-52.487	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?	Binary
-54.759	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Apr 2)	Continuous
-57.610	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Apr 2)	Continuous
-65.341	Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-68.252	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (December 3)	Continuous
-72.470	Will 2022 venture capital investment in cybersecurity companies surpass 2021?	Binary
-77.652	How many ransomware attacks against U.S. educational institutions will be reported in 2022?	Continuous
-84.873	Will the UK authorise fourth doses of Covid vaccines for healthy adults in 2022?	Binary
-84.944	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Apr 2)	Continuous
-87.264	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Apr 30)	Continuous
-94.538	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “The welfare of robots/AIs is one of the most important social issues in the world today.”?	Continuous
-113.657	How many acres will burn in wildfires in California in 2022?	Continuous
-129.639	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (May 14)	Continuous
-135.158	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (May 14)	Continuous
-136.640	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Apr 30)	Continuous
-160.494	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Apr 30)	Continuous
-176.094	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Apr 16)	Continuous
-185.709	Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?	Binary