jmason

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2022

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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6.283k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
112.217	How many seats will Democrats win in the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Continuous
104.146	How many US troops will be in Europe on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
98.514	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?	Binary
98.411	Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
97.618	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
97.616	Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
97.265	Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
96.959	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?	Binary
96.449	Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?	Binary
96.085	Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?	Binary
96.083	Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?	Binary
96.082	Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
95.971	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?	Binary
95.940	Will Beto O'Rourke win the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election?	Binary
95.559	Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?	Binary
95.525	Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
94.420	By December 31, 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?	Binary
92.304	Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
91.783	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?	Binary
91.663	[Short fuse]: Will Russia assume responsibility and apologize for the Przewodów strike before December?	Binary
89.942	Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?	Binary
89.365	Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?	Binary
88.947	Will Governor Newsom be Reelected Governor of California in 2022?	Binary
87.772	Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?	Binary
87.442	Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?	Binary
85.845	Will there be an armed conflict in the South China Sea before 2023?	Binary
85.402	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Ben Wallace)	Binary
85.402	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Nadhim Zahawi)	Binary
85.401	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Steve Baker)	Binary
85.401	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Dominic Raab)	Binary
85.401	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Suella Braverman)	Binary
85.401	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Kemi Badenoch)	Binary
85.401	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Grant Shapps)	Binary
85.401	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Sajid Javid)	Binary
84.601	Will Ron DeSantis be re-elected as Governor of Florida in 2022?	Binary
84.237	Will a Republican be elected governor of Maryland in 2022?	Binary
83.976	Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?	Binary
83.787	Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?	Binary
82.307	Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022?	Binary
80.404	Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?	Binary
80.117	Will Leondra Kruger be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
79.980	Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev exit the Presidency of Kazakhstan in 2022?	Binary
79.242	Will Stacey Abrams be elected Governor of Georgia in 2022?	Binary
78.974	Will Éric Zemmour win the French presidential election in 2022?	Binary
78.929	Will Liverpool win the 2021-2022 Premier League?	Binary
78.436	Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023?	Binary
77.430	Will Ontario's Conservative Party (PC) win the a majority in the election on 2022-06-02?	Binary
76.866	Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
76.854	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023?	Binary
71.539	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Jul 24, 2022)	Continuous
71.092	Will J.D. Vance win the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio?	Binary
70.240	Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022?	Binary
69.497	Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
68.469	What percentage of monkeypox cases in California will be among cisgender men who are gay/same-gender loving or bisexual?	Continuous
68.209	Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
67.281	Will Russian or Belarusian troops cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts before 2023?	Binary
66.202	Will PredictIt default on its obligation to allow its users to withdraw funds before 2023?	Binary
65.719	Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
65.650	Will EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
65.422	Before 2023, will Joe Biden announce that he will not run for president in 2024?	Binary
65.032	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Sergio Perez)	Binary
65.032	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Carlos Sainz)	Binary
65.032	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (George Russell)	Binary
65.032	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Lewis Hamilton)	Binary
64.882	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (May 29, 2022)	Continuous
64.174	Will Doug Mastriano be elected Governor of Pennsylvania in 2022?	Binary
63.685	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Michael Gove)	Binary
63.685	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
63.685	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Priti Patel)	Binary
63.685	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
63.684	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Tom Tugendhat)	Binary
61.699	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?	Binary
59.047	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Charles Leclerc)	Binary
57.675	Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
56.162	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Penny Mordaunt)	Binary
55.958	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Max Verstappen)	Binary
54.314	How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022?	Continuous
52.680	Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022?	Binary
52.568	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?	Binary
51.987	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Aug 21, 2022)	Continuous
51.241	Will the US Government designate Russia a "State Sponsor of Terrorism" by 2023?	Binary
49.329	Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022?	Binary
49.183	If Russia vetoes the UN Security Council vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, will the UN General Assembly override the veto?	Binary
48.650	Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
48.574	Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
47.336	Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022?	Binary
47.177	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
44.503	How many civilian casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War will there be before May 2022?	Continuous
41.991	Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?	Binary
41.733	Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
41.065	Will Queen Elizabeth II abdicate in 2022?	Binary
40.280	Will Éric Zemmour be in the 2nd round of the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
40.015	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Jul 24, 2022)	Continuous
39.524	Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
38.980	Will Raphael Warnock be re-elected in the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia?	Binary
37.693	How many people in Russia will be arrested for participating in anti-war protests before 2023?	Continuous
36.946	Will there be a bilateral ceasefire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2023?	Binary
36.903	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Liz Truss)	Binary
36.849	How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections?	Continuous
36.646	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?	Binary
35.336	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (May 1, 2022)	Continuous
34.891	Will Mehmet Oz win the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania?	Binary
27.859	Will Blake Masters win the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona?	Binary
25.560	Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?	Binary
24.618	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Aug 21, 2022)	Continuous
23.869	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (May 1, 2022)	Continuous
22.689	Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	Binary
19.231	Will Ukraine acknowledge having fired the missile that killed two people in Przewodów, Poland, before 2023?	Binary
18.414	Will Ron Johnson win the 2022 Wisconsin US Senate election?	Binary
15.116	Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?	Binary
14.414	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (May 29, 2022)	Continuous
12.701	Will Sarah Palin be elected as US Representative for Alaska in 2022?	Binary
12.418	If Russia invades Ukraine in 2022, when will the invasion be acknowledged by Russia or the UN?	Continuous
11.755	Will the European Central Bank raise interest rates in 2022?	Binary
11.222	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Jun 26, 2022)	Continuous
11.086	Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?	Binary
7.861	Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
3.285	Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?	Binary
2.547	Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
2.532	Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan in 2022?	Binary
0.919	Will the US sanction Russian oil or gas before 2023?	Binary
-0.752	If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023?	Binary
-3.148	Will Wales score a goal against England on Tuesday?	Binary
-17.090	Will Catherine Cortez Masto be re-elected in the 2022 US Senate election in Nevada?	Binary
-40.913	Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?	Binary
-46.405	How many border crossings leaving Ukraine will there be in 2022?	Continuous
-67.754	Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?	Binary
-71.576	What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in December 2022?	Continuous
-81.872	Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-84.174	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Jun 26, 2022)	Continuous
-91.216	Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-92.952	Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022?	Binary
-104.797	Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022?	Binary
-124.456	Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
-192.704	What will be Putin's approval rating value 3 months after the potential invasion of Ukraine?	Continuous
-208.148	What will total NATO defense spending be in 2022?	Continuous