exmateriae

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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12.11k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
187.522	How many airborne objects will be shot down in North American airspace in 2023?	Continuous
121.455	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 15)	Continuous
119.349	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Rescued or escaped)	Continuous
98.795	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
97.711	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba)	Binary
96.931	Will France send their military to intervene in the Gabonese coup in 2023?	Binary
96.926	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
96.687	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 100)	Binary
96.687	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 300)	Binary
96.621	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
96.274	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa)	Binary
95.585	Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?	Binary
95.546	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)	Binary
95.402	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
95.374	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 600)	Binary
94.955	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?	Binary
94.939	Will OpenAI release a "product" after ChatGPT before 2024?	Binary
94.694	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
94.643	Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024?	Binary
94.643	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
94.557	When will the next volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland begin?	Continuous
94.551	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
94.359	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
94.136	Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?	Binary
94.055	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
93.399	US Government Shutdown Before 2024? (No) → Johnson Speaker until 2024?	Binary
93.358	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
93.099	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
92.964	Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?	Binary
92.686	Wagner Group Controls Moscow by July 1, 2023? (No) → Ukraine Controls DNR/LNR on Jan 1, 2024	Binary
92.667	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?	Binary
91.996	Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024?	Binary
91.904	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
90.939	Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
90.803	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 1)	Continuous
90.337	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
90.273	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
90.004	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
88.185	Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2024)	Binary
87.644	Will OpenAI Inc. change its mission statement before the following years? (2024)	Binary
86.103	Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023?	Binary
85.727	Russian Coup or Regime Change before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
84.837	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
84.837	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)	Binary
84.837	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)	Binary
84.836	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)	Binary
84.835	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)	Binary
84.833	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)	Binary
84.832	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
84.832	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)	Binary
84.831	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
84.814	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 29)	Continuous
84.547	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)	Binary
84.547	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
84.547	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)	Binary
84.378	When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water?	Continuous
84.277	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
84.229	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
84.064	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
84.058	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
83.908	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
83.692	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
83.221	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
82.844	Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?	Binary
82.720	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
82.395	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sam Altman)	Binary
82.325	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Mark Zuckerberg)	Binary
81.934	Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?	Binary
81.575	In 2023, will a non-European team win the FIFA Club World Cup for the first time since 2012?	Binary
80.144	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
79.837	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
79.086	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sundar Pichai)	Binary
78.993	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Demis Hassabis)	Binary
78.364	Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023?	Binary
77.467	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
74.271	Will the Palestinian Authority declare itself bankrupt before the end of 2023?	Binary
73.755	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
73.446	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Australia)	Binary
73.039	Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?	Binary
72.735	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
72.484	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?	Binary
72.151	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
71.210	Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?	Binary
70.865	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Colombia)	Binary
69.184	Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?	Binary
66.907	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
66.246	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
66.223	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Sweden)	Binary
66.023	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
65.641	Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023?	Binary
64.084	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Netherlands)	Binary
63.898	How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy?	Continuous
63.877	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
63.220	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
62.130	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (France)	Binary
61.992	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (All Other Teams Not Listed)	Binary
61.179	How many Palestinian prisoners/detainees will Israel announce that it will release before 2024?	Continuous
60.794	What will be the annual average retail gasoline price (in 2022 USD per gallon) in the United States in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
60.141	Will a US spot Ethereum ETF be approved in 2023?	Binary
59.887	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Morocco)	Binary
59.753	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Jamaica)	Binary
59.303	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
58.889	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
58.624	How many level 2 or greater public charging stations will be available for light vehicles in the United States at the beginning of the listed year? (2024)	Continuous
58.310	Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22?	Binary
57.605	Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023?	Binary
57.429	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (June 17)	Continuous
56.931	What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023?	Continuous
56.702	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Nigeria)	Binary
56.076	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
55.972	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Denmark)	Binary
55.838	What rating will Bethesda's video game Starfield have on Steam two weeks after release?	Continuous
55.015	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Japan)	Binary
53.416	How much will Donald Trump's Republican primary polling average change two weeks after the first debate?	Continuous
53.120	How many FDIC banks will fail in 2023?	Continuous
52.930	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Africa)	Binary
52.236	Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?	Binary
51.269	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
50.952	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
50.485	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Switzerland)	Binary
50.416	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Dario Amodei)	Binary
49.931	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (England)	Binary
49.251	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Juan Schiaretti)	Binary
49.251	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Myriam Bregman)	Binary
48.998	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Norway)	Binary
47.695	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Florida Panthers)	Binary
47.099	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
46.808	Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?	Binary
46.062	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Boston Celtics)	Binary
45.993	Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?	Binary
45.581	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
45.481	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
45.457	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
45.221	Will a country other than the United States shoot down a high-altitude object before the end of February, 2023?	Binary
44.988	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
44.988	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
44.988	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Nancy Mace (R))	Binary
44.988	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
44.987	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
44.825	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
44.823	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
44.823	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
44.565	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
44.239	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
44.156	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Korea)	Binary
44.000	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
43.622	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?	Binary
42.905	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
42.254	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
42.130	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Italy)	Binary
42.038	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Argentina)	Binary
42.015	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Emmer (R))	Binary
41.645	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Lakers)	Binary
41.542	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023)	Binary
41.490	Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class?	Binary
40.268	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
39.916	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Brazil)	Binary
39.709	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Released by captor)	Continuous
39.548	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
39.470	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Haiti)	Binary
39.458	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (New York Knicks)	Binary
38.964	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?	Binary
38.674	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Portugal)	Binary
38.580	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (China)	Binary
38.054	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
37.497	Will copper prices reach an all-time-high in 2023?	Binary
37.296	Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?	Binary
35.367	How many people will die in the Sudan conflict in 2023?	Continuous
34.991	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
34.903	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Canada)	Binary
34.165	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Philadelphia 76ers)	Binary
34.075	Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29?	Binary
33.524	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Golden State Warriors)	Binary
33.006	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Philippines)	Binary
32.727	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Germany)	Binary
32.593	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
32.345	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (New Zealand)	Binary
32.243	Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season?	Binary
32.179	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
31.790	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
31.655	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Phoenix Suns)	Binary
30.911	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
30.802	Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
30.752	Will Apple announce a Virtual Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
30.559	Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?	Binary
30.442	What will be the annual average retail electricity price (in 2022 US cents per kWh) in the United States in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
30.396	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Panama)	Binary
30.274	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
28.676	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Cole (R))	Binary
27.881	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
26.489	Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2023?	Binary
26.098	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Jan-2024)	Continuous
25.434	Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?	Binary
24.830	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Republic of Ireland)	Binary
24.351	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Vietnam)	Binary
23.411	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (June 3)	Continuous
22.900	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Sacramento Kings)	Binary
21.682	What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in California in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles? (2023)	Continuous
21.514	When will the successor to Kevin McCarthy be elected as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives?	Continuous
21.099	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Zambia)	Binary
21.064	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Costa Rica)	Binary
20.698	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (All other teams)	Binary
20.044	Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?	Binary
19.935	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
19.397	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Memphis Grizzlies)	Binary
17.780	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Cleveland Cavaliers)	Binary
17.427	How many goals will be scored in total across all four Champions League semifinal games in the 2022/23 season?	Continuous
17.339	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Clippers)	Binary
16.646	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Lee Zeldin (R))	Binary
16.584	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Brian Fitzpatrick (R))	Binary
16.427	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Austin Scott (R))	Binary
16.129	Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?	Binary
16.112	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Kukiz'15)	Binary
16.112	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Agreement)	Binary
16.112	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Democratic Left)	Binary
16.112	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Poland 2050)	Binary
16.112	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Confederation)	Binary
16.112	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Polish Coalition)	Binary
16.112	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (New Left)	Binary
15.561	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (New Jersey Devils)	Binary
15.178	Will either the NBA Finals or the Stanley Cup Finals in 2023 go to a game 7?	Binary
13.962	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (United States)	Binary
13.274	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
11.789	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Milwaukee Bucks)	Binary
10.320	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
10.292	Will the statutory debt limit be increased or suspended for at least 30 days in the United States before 2024?	Binary
9.603	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
9.597	Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?	Binary
8.302	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Vegas Golden Knights)	Binary
8.198	Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?	Binary
7.074	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?	Binary
7.030	Will ChatGPT have multiple tiers of capability before 2024?	Binary
6.912	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
5.976	Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023?	Binary
5.321	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
4.526	Will large language models become the state of the art for machine translation in 2023?	Binary
3.772	Will countries commit at least 100 US/German-made modern main battle tanks to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
3.725	Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
2.038	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (NY Rangers)	Binary
0.396	Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.222	Will USDC restore its peg before May 1, 2023?	Binary
-0.045	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
-3.125	When will Joe Biden issue his third veto?	Continuous
-7.048	Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?	Binary
-11.712	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-12.387	Will the Arctic sea ice extent be lower on each day of 2023 compared to that of 2012?	Binary
-18.150	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
-20.011	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
-25.867	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
-41.724	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-46.412	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-48.219	How many ratings will Prince Harry's book Spare have on Amazon on January 20th at 7:00 pm GMT?	Continuous
-49.323	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
-51.957	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (Aug 26)	Continuous
-58.070	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
-68.455	Will Victor Wembanyama make the NBA All-Star Game in his rookie season?	Binary
-81.998	Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
-84.524	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Denver Nuggets)	Binary
-108.669	Will US sovereign debt be downgraded in 2023?	Binary
-136.461	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Spain)	Binary
-139.617	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Mike Johnson (R))	Binary

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Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

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