| 148.576 | How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024? | Continuous |
| 145.124 | How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 139.690 | How much money will the FTX Foundation distribute in 2023? | Continuous |
| 131.572 | What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be? | Continuous |
| 112.364 | How many active United Nations peacekeeping missions will there be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 111.172 | How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| 108.516 | How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024? | Continuous |
| 105.552 | What will the world population be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 100.427 | How many level 2 or greater public charging stations will be available for light vehicles in the United States at the beginning of the listed year? (2025) | Continuous |
| 99.850 | Room-temp Superconductor Replicated by 2025 (No) → Commercial Room-Temp Superconductor by 2025? | Binary |
| 99.706 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 99.650 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 99.477 | Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025? | Binary |
| 99.394 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 99.167 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 99.137 | Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025? | Binary |
| 99.121 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 99.118 | Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? | Binary |
| 99.096 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 99.048 | When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 hospitalizations fall below 49? | Continuous |
| 99.044 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 98.958 | LLM passes ARA before 2025? (No) → LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 98.881 | India Acts in Pakistan by 2024 Election? (No) → Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025? | Binary |
| 98.843 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 98.843 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 98.843 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
| 98.843 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 98.843 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 98.843 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
| 98.740 | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 98.676 | Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025? | Binary |
| 98.351 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 98.060 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
| 97.817 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government) | Binary |
| 97.457 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 97.157 | Will a lead-apatite class superconductor with a warm Tc be found before 2025? | Binary |
| 96.923 | Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU? | Binary |
| 96.561 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 96.397 | Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025? | Binary |
| 96.087 | Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination? (Yes) → Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? | Binary |
| 96.082 | Trump Removed or Blocked From Primary Ballot? (No) → 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 96.013 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 95.760 | Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023? | Binary |
| 95.576 | Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025? | Binary |
| 95.438 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 95.189 | How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 95.090 | What will be the British male life expectancy at birth in 2021 according to the UK Office of National Statistics? | Continuous |
| 95.039 | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 94.734 | When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify? | Continuous |
| 94.686 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
| 94.510 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 94.492 | If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day? | Binary |
| 94.234 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Terry Gou (Independent)) | Binary |
| 94.209 | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
| 94.029 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power) | Binary |
| 93.770 | When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA? | Continuous |
| 93.310 | Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 93.244 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 93.244 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 93.214 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas) | Binary |
| 93.139 | Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025? | Binary |
| 92.610 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 92.463 | Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025? | Binary |
| 92.436 | Meaningful commitments from UK AI Summit? (No) → ChatGPT available in Europe on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 92.119 | Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025? | Binary |
| 91.562 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Burnley) | Continuous |
| 91.395 | Will OpenAI Inc. change its mission statement before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 91.394 | What percent of Earth's land will be protected for wildlife on the following dates? (2025) | Continuous |
| 91.304 | Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 91.223 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas) | Binary |
| 90.618 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 90.600 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 90.216 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
| 89.906 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Luton Town) | Continuous |
| 89.705 | Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 89.298 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Sheffield United) | Continuous |
| 88.686 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
| 88.488 | Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 88.463 | Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 88.420 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| 88.414 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 87.811 | Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 87.608 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 87.556 | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 87.532 | What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 86.936 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 86.801 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Apr-2024) | Continuous |
| 86.785 | Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 86.717 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 86.573 | Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 86.214 | When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO? | Continuous |
| 85.908 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Borussia Dortmund) | Binary |
| 85.768 | Will 2022 be the hottest year on record? | Binary |
| 85.696 | Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025? | Binary |
| 85.499 | Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023? | Binary |
| 85.306 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Jun-2024) | Continuous |
| 85.290 | Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023? | Binary |
| 85.108 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Indiana Pacers) | Binary |
| 85.017 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah) | Binary |
| 84.783 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 84.385 | Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025? | Binary |
| 84.056 | Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024? | Binary |
| 83.981 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
| 83.981 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 83.581 | When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases fall below 1015? | Continuous |
| 83.354 | Musk Chairman Of Twitter in 2024? (Yes) → Twitter Public Company in May 2024? | Binary |
| 83.241 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 83.241 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 82.770 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Dallas Mavericks) | Binary |
| 82.416 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 82.085 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| 82.010 | Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 81.850 | What will be the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 81.788 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire) | Binary |
| 81.725 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | Binary |
| 81.615 | Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 81.372 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Fulham) | Continuous |
| 81.147 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (New York Knicks) | Binary |
| 81.123 | Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025? | Binary |
| 80.941 | Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023? | Binary |
| 80.936 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan) | Binary |
| 80.437 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Everton) | Continuous |
| 80.250 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Oklahoma City Thunder) | Binary |
| 80.155 | Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022? | Binary |
| 80.002 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Liverpool) | Continuous |
| 79.954 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Cleveland Cavaliers) | Binary |
| 79.734 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024) | Binary |
| 79.456 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota) | Binary |
| 79.427 | Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 79.261 | How many of Virginia's 133 communities will be experiencing moderate or higher levels of community transmission as of 7 March 2022? | Continuous |
| 78.886 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (West Ham United) | Continuous |
| 78.670 | Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025? | Binary |
| 78.485 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 78.152 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 77.815 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 77.815 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Egypt-Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 77.739 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Ukraine-Morocco) | Binary |
| 77.322 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 77.268 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Morocco) | Binary |
| 77.073 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers) | Continuous |
| 76.539 | Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024? | Binary |
| 76.517 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Orlando Magic) | Binary |
| 76.493 | Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly? | Binary |
| 76.366 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Manchester City) | Continuous |
| 76.339 | Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 76.165 | Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 76.066 | Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 76.049 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Newcastle United) | Continuous |
| 75.935 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Ko Wen-je (TPP)) | Binary |
| 74.751 | Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam? | Binary |
| 74.669 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur) | Continuous |
| 74.649 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (May-2024) | Continuous |
| 74.409 | Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 74.312 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Manchester United) | Continuous |
| 74.225 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Mar-2024) | Continuous |
| 74.159 | Will Meta's Horizon Worlds report more than 500,000 active users for any month of 2023? | Binary |
| 74.071 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
| 74.058 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 73.935 | When will the percentage of Virginians who have received a booster dose exceed 50%? | Continuous |
| 73.850 | When will Julian Assange be extradited to the US? | Continuous |
| 73.775 | How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 73.613 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (New Orleans Pelicans) | Binary |
| 73.495 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Los Angeles Clippers) | Binary |
| 73.402 | Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 73.370 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Minnesota Timberwolves) | Binary |
| 73.096 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Arsenal) | Continuous |
| 73.033 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Hou Yu-ih (Kuomintang)) | Binary |
| 72.841 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Jul-2024) | Continuous |
| 72.161 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Philadelphia 76ers) | Binary |
| 72.123 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
| 72.123 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
| 72.123 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
| 71.671 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Brentford) | Continuous |
| 71.537 | 5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 71.528 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Athletico Madrid) | Binary |
| 71.510 | Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024? | Binary |
| 70.888 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Barcelona) | Binary |
| 70.734 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 70.715 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 70.682 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Chicago Bulls) | Binary |
| 70.597 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Brighton And Hove Albion) | Continuous |
| 69.927 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Atlanta Hawks) | Binary |
| 68.945 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Sacremento Kings) | Binary |
| 68.785 | By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 68.654 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 68.568 | Will Erling Haaland score the most goals in the 2023/24 Premier League season? | Binary |
| 68.120 | What will the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth be in the G7 countries in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 67.766 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Aston Villa) | Continuous |
| 67.681 | Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022? | Binary |
| 67.585 | Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023? | Binary |
| 67.417 | Will Tether collapse before 2025? | Binary |
| 67.297 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Phoenix Suns) | Binary |
| 67.194 | What will the total worldwide box office gross be for Avatar 2? | Continuous |
| 66.815 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 66.704 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 66.639 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
| 66.488 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 66.334 | What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 66.332 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 66.060 | Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 66.056 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Brooklyn Nets) | Binary |
| 65.773 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
| 65.742 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Houston Rockets) | Binary |
| 65.410 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 65.367 | When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022? | Continuous |
| 65.250 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023? | Binary |
| 65.141 | Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta? | Binary |
| 65.119 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
| 64.939 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 64.895 | When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur? | Continuous |
| 64.894 | How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 64.683 | Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024? | Binary |
| 64.586 | Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 64.581 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Los Angeles Lakers) | Binary |
| 64.443 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 64.146 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Feb-2024) | Continuous |
| 64.098 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Miami Heat) | Binary |
| 64.082 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Google Deep Mind) | Binary |
| 63.987 | How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022? | Continuous |
| 63.560 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 63.400 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest) | Continuous |
| 63.394 | By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 63.210 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 63.064 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Crystal Palace) | Continuous |
| 62.969 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 62.669 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 62.399 | Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 62.047 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 61.918 | Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta? | Binary |
| 61.809 | When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.? | Continuous |
| 61.596 | Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 61.498 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Toronto Raptors) | Binary |
| 61.185 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Utah Jazz) | Binary |
| 61.088 | What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022? | Continuous |
| 61.072 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 60.886 | What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 60.780 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (PSV) | Binary |
| 60.574 | What percent of the world population will use the internet in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 60.334 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan) | Binary |
| 60.245 | Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 60.213 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Porto) | Binary |
| 60.049 | Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 59.894 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Charlotte Hornets) | Binary |
| 59.119 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Golden State Warriors) | Binary |
| 58.959 | By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 58.798 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023? | Binary |
| 58.417 | Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025? | Binary |
| 58.305 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Arsenal) | Binary |
| 57.924 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Inter Milan) | Binary |
| 57.907 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Minnesota Lynx) | Binary |
| 57.887 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Copenhagen) | Binary |
| 57.669 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024? | Binary |
| 57.545 | Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? | Binary |
| 57.541 | What will annual CO2 emissions be in the United States (in tonnes) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 57.393 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Portland Trail Blazers) | Binary |
| 57.199 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (RB Leipzig) | Binary |
| 56.949 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Sociedad) | Binary |
| 56.948 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lazio) | Binary |
| 56.930 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 56.877 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 56.619 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Memphis Grizzlies) | Binary |
| 56.492 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Napoli) | Binary |
| 56.403 | By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 56.253 | Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 56.071 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 55.684 | Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023? | Binary |
| 55.465 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Bournemouth) | Continuous |
| 55.439 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Bayern Munich) | Binary |
| 55.325 | Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025? | Binary |
| 55.297 | Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024? | Binary |
| 55.134 | By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty? | Binary |
| 54.701 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League? (Chelsea) | Continuous |
| 54.501 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Washington Wizards) | Binary |
| 54.201 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Detroit Pistons) | Binary |
| 53.792 | If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 53.716 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (San Antonio Spurs) | Binary |
| 53.713 | When will the UK hold its next general election? | Continuous |
| 53.514 | Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 53.406 | What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 53.404 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 53.360 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement? | Binary |
| 52.922 | Will a new highly-diamagnetic room-temperature material be found before 2025? | Binary |
| 52.611 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 52.611 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 52.245 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Los Angeles Sparks) | Binary |
| 51.926 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Washington Mystics) | Binary |
| 51.926 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Chicago Sky) | Binary |
| 51.913 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Atlanta Dream) | Binary |
| 51.913 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Milwaukee Bucks) | Binary |
| 51.241 | Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025? | Binary |
| 51.021 | What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 50.872 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska) | Binary |
| 50.872 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa) | Binary |
| 50.872 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado) | Binary |
| 50.827 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 50.648 | Which country will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics? | Multiple Choice |
| 50.496 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 50.155 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
| 50.081 | How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 49.733 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 49.733 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 49.733 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds) | Binary |
| 49.733 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst) | Binary |
| 49.593 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
| 49.593 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
| 49.424 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
| 49.417 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 49.297 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Paris Saint-Germain) | Binary |
| 49.107 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 48.586 | Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025? | Binary |
| 48.502 | By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 47.917 | What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 47.682 | Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates? | Binary |
| 47.456 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 46.727 | When will the Republican presidential nominee next win the state of Massachusetts in a US Presidential Election? (2024) | Binary |
| 46.576 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 46.356 | Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025? | Binary |
| 45.743 | Will 2022 be warmer than 2021? | Binary |
| 44.281 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dwayne Johnson) | Binary |
| 44.281 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mark Cuban) | Binary |
| 43.722 | Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 43.702 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mitt Romney) | Binary |
| 43.659 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Chicago Bears) | Binary |
| 43.552 | What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 43.278 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace) | Binary |
| 43.268 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 43.268 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds) | Binary |
| 43.263 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt) | Binary |
| 43.052 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Manchin) | Binary |
| 42.774 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
| 42.719 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson) | Binary |
| 42.436 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio) | Binary |
| 42.423 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 41.849 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Denver Broncos) | Binary |
| 41.713 | What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 41.649 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Rams) | Binary |
| 41.313 | Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025? | Binary |
| 41.291 | Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election? | Binary |
| 41.012 | Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 40.748 | Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 39.632 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, optional) | Binary |
| 39.575 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 39.399 | Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023? | Binary |
| 39.247 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 38.955 | Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled? | Binary |
| 38.881 | Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 38.880 | Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 38.806 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 38.417 | Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 38.398 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election? | Binary |
| 37.851 | Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 37.797 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Las Vegas Raiders) | Binary |
| 37.658 | What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 37.389 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, optional) | Binary |
| 37.066 | When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally? | Continuous |
| 36.910 | Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? | Binary |
| 36.839 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, optional) | Binary |
| 36.639 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Lai Ching-te (DPP)) | Binary |
| 36.228 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Kansas City Chiefs) | Binary |
| 36.013 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Denver Nuggets) | Binary |
| 35.174 | In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state? | Binary |
| 35.143 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 34.970 | How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 34.909 | How many 8"-equivalent wafers will SMIC ship in each quarter of 2024? (Q3 (ends Sep 2024)) | Continuous |
| 34.613 | Will the "Moon Cube" be shown to be non-natural before 2023? | Binary |
| 33.882 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (San Francisco 49ers) | Binary |
| 33.760 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Arizona Cardinals) | Binary |
| 33.498 | How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 33.366 | Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023? | Binary |
| 33.041 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 32.783 | Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024? | Binary |
| 32.534 | What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022? | Continuous |
| 32.103 | Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025? | Binary |
| 31.878 | What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500? | Continuous |
| 31.811 | When will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022? | Continuous |
| 31.213 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, not optional) | Binary |
| 30.996 | When will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022? | Continuous |
| 30.883 | Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025? | Binary |
| 30.758 | Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 30.700 | What percent of Earth's marine area will be protected for wildlife on the following dates? (2025) | Continuous |
| 30.680 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, not optional) | Binary |
| 30.499 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New York Giants) | Binary |
| 30.457 | Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022? | Binary |
| 30.450 | Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models? | Binary |
| 30.310 | What will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022? | Continuous |
| 30.049 | Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025? | Binary |
| 29.608 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 28.513 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| 28.362 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New England Patriots) | Binary |
| 28.147 | What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022? | Continuous |
| 27.461 | Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 27.369 | What will be the share of global light vehicles sold which are zero-emission vehicles in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 26.906 | Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 26.886 | Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022? | Binary |
| 26.355 | How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue (FY 2025) will come from the Chinese market? (Q3 (FY2025, ends Oct 2024)) | Continuous |
| 26.305 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
| 25.602 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 25.602 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake) | Binary |
| 25.602 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
| 25.595 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik) | Binary |
| 25.339 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 24.675 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey) | Binary |
| 24.675 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York) | Binary |
| 24.594 | Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025? | Binary |
| 24.528 | Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025? | Binary |
| 24.295 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Inflection) | Binary |
| 24.067 | Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024? | Binary |
| 24.000 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Buffalo Bills) | Binary |
| 23.995 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Carolina Panthers) | Binary |
| 23.251 | Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023? | Binary |
| 23.077 | BTC Worth Over 100k USD by 2025? (Yes) → Federal Funds Target Range Upper Limit (December 31, 2024) | Continuous |
| 22.997 | How much of Nvidia's quarterly 2024 revenue (FY 2025) will come from the Chinese market? (Q2 (FY2025, ends Jul 2024)) | Continuous |
| 22.809 | How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023? | Continuous |
| 22.596 | Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont? | Binary |
| 22.399 | By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? | Binary |
| 22.365 | Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? (No) → 2024 US election considered fraudulent? | Binary |
| 21.952 | How much quarterly revenue will SMIC earn from 12" wafers in 2024? (Q3 (ends Sep 2024)) | Continuous |
| 21.939 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 21.886 | Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election? | Binary |
| 21.784 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 20.948 | Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 20.208 | Will an additional state join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 19.938 | When will the next German government be formed? | Continuous |
| 19.442 | Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 19.426 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (December 31, 2024) | Continuous |
| 19.313 | How much quarterly revenue will SMIC earn from 12" wafers in 2024? (Q2 (ends Jun 2024)) | Continuous |
| 18.935 | Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024? | Binary |
| 18.896 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester City) | Binary |
| 18.841 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2025? | Binary |
| 18.608 | Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025? | Binary |
| 18.323 | Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 18.100 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Shakhtar Donetsk) | Binary |
| 18.099 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Newcastle United) | Binary |
| 17.631 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Galatasaray) | Binary |
| 17.621 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Braga) | Binary |
| 17.328 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (AC Milan) | Binary |
| 17.172 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Inflection) | Binary |
| 17.167 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester United) | Binary |
| 16.894 | Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Binary |
| 16.864 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Meta) | Binary |
| 16.202 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD)) | Binary |
| 16.145 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 16.089 | What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal index for the value in December of the listed year relative to the value in December 2020? (2024) | Continuous |
| 16.014 | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (5: Negotiations initiated) | Continuous |
| 15.472 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide)) | Binary |
| 15.364 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
| 15.144 | What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose as of 4 May 2022? | Continuous |
| 14.144 | When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring? | Continuous |
| 13.729 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 13.617 | When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100? | Continuous |
| 13.468 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Meta) | Binary |
| 13.446 | Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 13.389 | Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022? | Binary |
| 13.025 | By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis? | Binary |
| 12.886 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026? | Binary |
| 12.837 | When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022? | Continuous |
| 12.750 | Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023? | Binary |
| 12.509 | Will Norway leave EEA before 2025? | Binary |
| 12.323 | How many North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 12.258 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Ariane 6) | Continuous |
| 12.214 | How many 8"-equivalent wafers will SMIC ship in each quarter of 2024? (Q2 (ends Jun 2024)) | Continuous |
| 12.198 | Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025? | Binary |
| 11.999 | Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023? | Binary |
| 11.937 | Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections? | Binary |
| 11.591 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lens) | Binary |
| 11.534 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Tennessee Titans) | Binary |
| 11.531 | When will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space? | Continuous |
| 11.439 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Sevilla) | Binary |
| 11.414 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Vulcan Centaur) | Continuous |
| 11.245 | What will China’s GDP be in 2023? | Continuous |
| 11.231 | When will OpenAI release an AI that significantly improves on GPT-4's factual accuracy? | Continuous |
| 11.205 | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (4: Negotiations approved) | Continuous |
| 11.122 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Crvena Zvezda) | Binary |
| 11.122 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Feyenoord) | Binary |
| 11.122 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Celtic) | Binary |
| 10.754 | When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers? | Continuous |
| 10.584 | Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024? | Binary |
| 10.517 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (New Glenn) | Continuous |
| 10.255 | What will be the number of conflicts with significant impacts on U.S. interests by 2023? | Continuous |
| 9.585 | What will President Joe Biden's net approval rating be on November 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| 9.238 | What will China's total population be in these years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 9.085 | What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be? | Continuous |
| 9.058 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| 9.014 | What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive? | Continuous |
| 8.827 | Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022? | Binary |
| 8.686 | What will the Men's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be? | Continuous |
| 8.547 | What will Great Britain's maximum solar power capacity (MW) be for October 2024? | Continuous |
| 8.281 | Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 8.195 | What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022? | Continuous |
| 7.599 | How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 7.277 | How many deaths from terrorism in 2020? | Continuous |
| 6.492 | Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024? | Binary |
| 5.758 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati) | Binary |
| 5.758 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever) | Binary |
| 5.758 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt) | Binary |
| 5.758 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella) | Binary |
| 5.758 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy) | Binary |
| 5.758 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Emmett Shear) | Binary |
| 5.684 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman) | Binary |
| 5.640 | Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023? | Binary |
| 5.350 | How many flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, make in its lifetime? | Continuous |
| 5.013 | Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31? | Binary |
| 5.007 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Futbol Club Barcelona) | Binary |
| 5.007 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Internacional de Fútbol Miami) | Binary |
| 5.007 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Al-Hilal Saudi Football Club) | Binary |
| 5.007 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Atlético Newell's Old Boys) | Binary |
| 5.007 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Manchester City Football Club) | Binary |
| 4.884 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour) | Continuous |
| 4.515 | Will the Sacramento Kings advance to the second round of the NBA playoffs in 2024? | Binary |
| 4.069 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (September 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 4.031 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output Yes) | Binary |
| 3.897 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative) | Continuous |
| 3.824 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat) | Continuous |
| 3.402 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output Yes) | Binary |
| 3.285 | What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 21st of January, 2022? | Continuous |
| 2.845 | What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025? | Continuous |
| 2.799 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Greens) | Continuous |
| 2.699 | When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users? | Continuous |
| 2.359 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Renew) | Binary |
| 2.359 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Greens–EFA) | Binary |
| 2.359 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ECR) | Binary |
| 2.359 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ID) | Binary |
| 2.359 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (GUE-NGL) | Binary |
| 2.180 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (EPP) | Binary |
| 2.106 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (S&D) | Binary |
| 1.835 | What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 1.698 | When will Google Bard be generally available in the European Union? | Continuous |
| 1.680 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (RB Salzburg) | Binary |
| 1.647 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Union Berlin) | Binary |
| 1.647 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Benfica) | Binary |
| 1.582 | When will Apple announce the first computer that uses the second generation of their M-series processor (likely to be named the M2)? | Continuous |
| 1.530 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Chargers) | Binary |
| 1.509 | What will the price of oil be for December 2022? | Continuous |
| 1.244 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Antwerp) | Binary |
| 1.233 | Hunter Biden Indicted by Nov 5, 2024? (Yes) → Joe Biden Impeached by House? | Binary |
| 1.215 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Young Boys) | Binary |
| 0.985 | Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 0.760 | Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026? | Binary |
| 0.653 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Alliance) | Continuous |
| 0.644 | Will Labour have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election? | Binary |
| 0.620 | Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022? | Binary |
| 0.455 | Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 0.400 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Reform) | Continuous |
| 0.196 | What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2022? | Continuous |
| 0.063 | Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11? | Binary |
| -0.648 | Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
| -2.349 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party) | Continuous |
| -2.599 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| -3.387 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output No) | Binary |
| -5.407 | Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| -5.615 | What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022? | Continuous |
| -7.567 | Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
| -9.759 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| -10.709 | Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025? | Binary |
| -11.602 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Madrid) | Binary |
| -11.750 | UN Troops In Gaza (No) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -11.853 | Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023? | Binary |
| -11.857 | Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates? | Binary |
| -12.990 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output No) | Binary |
| -15.872 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel) | Binary |
| -16.030 | What will be the share of people living in countries where same-sex marriage is legal in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -16.933 | When will the next UK general election take place? | Continuous |
| -17.471 | How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| -21.381 | Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match? | Binary |
| -24.274 | Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections? | Binary |
| -24.514 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
| -25.534 | Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025? | Binary |
| -28.974 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested) | Binary |
| -39.685 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House) | Binary |
| -39.804 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| -39.840 | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023) | Binary |
| -46.315 | Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025? | Binary |
| -48.291 | What will US inflation be in 2022? | Continuous |
| -53.693 | When will the Mars helicopter Ingenuity stop making successful flights for 6 months? | Continuous |
| -57.981 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Donald Trump) | Continuous |
| -65.944 | Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022? | Binary |
| -67.038 | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (3: Negotiations recommended) | Continuous |
| -68.504 | What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| -74.666 | [short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022? | Binary |
| -75.835 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Boston Celtics) | Binary |
| -101.209 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Philadelphia Eagles) | Binary |
| -105.825 | How many medals will the USA win at Paris 2024? | Continuous |
| -118.718 | Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023? | Binary |
| -126.873 | How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022? | Continuous |
| -131.907 | Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024? | Binary |
| -162.482 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -169.291 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| -177.777 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Houston Texans) | Binary |
| -186.307 | In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received? | Binary |
| -209.275 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| -242.585 | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
| -319.061 | Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025) | Binary |