biak.contramao

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2022

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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1.618k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
98.449	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?	Binary
98.269	Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
98.100	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?	Binary
97.613	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
97.240	Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
96.785	Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?	Binary
96.069	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?	Binary
95.529	Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?	Binary
93.452	Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
92.398	Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
92.144	Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
90.592	Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?	Binary
85.204	Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?	Binary
81.592	Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?	Binary
80.651	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
78.491	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
77.581	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
77.380	How many US troops will be in Europe on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
75.219	Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?	Binary
71.722	Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022?	Binary
71.708	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 25th, 2022?	Continuous
71.549	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Mar 19)	Continuous
71.270	Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
69.657	Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022?	Binary
68.152	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Feb 5)	Continuous
67.286	How many civilian casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War will there be before May 2022?	Continuous
65.109	Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
62.808	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?	Binary
61.382	How many people in Russia will be arrested for participating in anti-war protests before 2023?	Continuous
57.798	Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022?	Binary
56.021	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (May 29, 2022)	Continuous
55.952	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (May 1, 2022)	Continuous
54.144	How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022?	Continuous
50.066	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
48.694	Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
47.569	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Côte d'Ivoire)	Binary
47.078	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 4th of March, 2022?	Continuous
46.984	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
46.858	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Eritrea)	Binary
46.386	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations on Mar 4, 2022?	Continuous
46.144	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Burundi)	Binary
46.143	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Rwanda)	Binary
45.619	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Cambodia)	Binary
45.593	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Feb 5)	Continuous
43.490	If Russia vetoes the UN Security Council vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, will the UN General Assembly override the veto?	Binary
42.865	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Nepal)	Binary
42.505	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Saudi Riyal SAR)	Binary
41.697	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Lesotho)	Binary
40.928	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Djibouti)	Binary
40.927	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Gabon)	Binary
40.927	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Eswatini (Swaziland))	Binary
40.927	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Equatorial Guinea)	Binary
39.754	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Mar 5)	Continuous
39.701	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Honduras)	Binary
39.363	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Angola)	Binary
39.254	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Tajikistan)	Binary
39.254	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Korea DPR)	Binary
39.010	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Nicaragua)	Binary
39.010	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Guatemala)	Binary
38.925	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Mexican Peso $)	Binary
38.924	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Iranian Rial IRR)	Binary
38.567	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Tanzania)	Binary
37.604	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Bolivia)	Binary
37.436	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Indian Rupee ₹)	Binary
36.947	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Zimbabwe)	Binary
36.889	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (El Salvador)	Binary
35.437	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (India)	Binary
34.878	Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?	Binary
34.355	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Chinese Yuan Renminbi ¥)	Binary
33.722	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Feb 5)	Continuous
33.376	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 4th, 2022?	Continuous
32.727	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Kenya)	Binary
31.388	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Papua New Guinea)	Binary
31.388	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Lao PDR)	Binary
31.126	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (European Union Euro €)	Binary
31.125	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Indonesian Rupiah Rp)	Binary
31.125	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Brazillian Real R$)	Binary
31.124	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Bangladeshi Taka ৳)	Binary
30.901	Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
30.675	Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
28.745	Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?	Binary
26.634	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on April 1st, 2022?	Continuous
24.984	Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?	Binary
24.526	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Mar 5)	Continuous
22.923	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022?	Continuous
22.818	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Mar 5)	Continuous
22.454	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Feb 18, 2022?	Continuous
22.426	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Democratic Republic of Congo)	Binary
22.282	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Thai Baht ฿)	Binary
22.282	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Nigerian Naira ₦)	Binary
19.812	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (May 1, 2022)	Continuous
19.591	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Feb 19)	Continuous
19.527	What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in December 2022?	Continuous
16.022	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Jan 22)	Continuous
15.949	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Jan 22)	Continuous
15.027	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Jan 22)	Continuous
13.850	Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?	Binary
13.301	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Feb 19)	Continuous
12.917	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Jan 22)	Continuous
12.695	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Uganda)	Binary
12.211	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Feb 19)	Continuous
12.176	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Pakistan)	Binary
12.176	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Bangladesh)	Binary
12.075	How many border crossings leaving Ukraine will there be in 2022?	Continuous
9.375	Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
7.213	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Jan 22)	Continuous
7.192	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Feb 19)	Continuous
7.098	Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?	Binary
6.785	Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
6.312	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Polish złoty ł)	Binary
3.753	Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?	Binary
2.655	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?	Binary
2.379	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Feb 19)	Continuous
1.845	Will the US sanction Russian oil or gas before 2023?	Binary
0.998	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (May 29, 2022)	Continuous
-1.515	Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-3.989	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Jan 22)	Continuous
-4.307	Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?	Binary
-5.868	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Apr 2)	Continuous
-6.234	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Egyptian Pound £E)	Binary
-12.104	Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-23.620	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Pakistani Rupee ₨)	Binary
-31.812	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Feb 19)	Continuous
-32.165	Will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) exceed 60 on any single day in 2022?	Binary
-37.055	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Feb 5)	Continuous
-40.307	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Mar 19)	Continuous
-60.679	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Turkish Lira ₺)	Binary
-61.915	What will be Virginia’s weekly peak of new confirmed and probable cases before 1 May 2022?	Continuous
-69.991	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Feb 5)	Continuous
-78.335	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Mar 5)	Continuous
-89.646	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 4th, 2022 and April 29th, 2022?	Continuous
-101.068	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Mar 5)	Continuous
-101.837	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Mar 5)	Continuous
-121.695	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Mar 19)	Continuous
-135.456	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous
-150.981	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Mar 19)	Continuous
-158.781	What will be Virginia’s weekly peak of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 May 2022?	Continuous
-166.851	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Mar 19)	Continuous
-171.668	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Feb 5)	Continuous
-183.396	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Mar 19)	Continuous
-200.127	What will total NATO defense spending be in 2022?	Continuous
-204.818	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Apr 2)	Continuous
-213.441	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Apr 2)	Continuous
-213.633	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Apr 2)	Continuous
-213.638	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Apr 2)	Continuous
-213.641	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Apr 2)	Continuous
-227.309	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between February 25th, 2022 and May 20th, 2022?	Continuous