PhilippSchoenegger

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2022

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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10.77k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
113.706	What percentage "yes" will Elon Musk's Twitter poll have for reinstating Trump?	Continuous
98.321	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?	Binary
97.522	[Short fuse]: Will Russia assume responsibility and apologize for the Przewodów strike before December?	Binary
97.442	Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?	Binary
97.441	Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?	Binary
97.362	Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?	Binary
97.299	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?	Binary
97.125	Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?	Binary
96.956	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
96.810	Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
96.570	Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
95.250	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?	Binary
95.138	Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
95.009	Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
92.209	Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
91.477	Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
88.964	Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
88.928	By December 31, 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?	Binary
88.859	Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?	Binary
88.633	Will Ron DeSantis be re-elected as Governor of Florida in 2022?	Binary
87.739	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Ben Wallace)	Binary
87.739	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Steve Baker)	Binary
87.739	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Dominic Raab)	Binary
87.739	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Suella Braverman)	Binary
87.738	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Grant Shapps)	Binary
87.716	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Kemi Badenoch)	Binary
87.694	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Nadhim Zahawi)	Binary
87.694	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Sajid Javid)	Binary
87.663	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2022)	Binary
87.648	Will Elizabeth Kim win the Democratic primary for New York's 10th congressional district in 2022?	Binary
86.900	Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?	Binary
86.651	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?	Binary
85.743	What will be the maximum price reached for Ethereum by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
85.274	Will Niger experience a coup before 2023?	Binary
84.845	Will Éric Zemmour win the French presidential election in 2022?	Binary
84.283	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Mauritania)	Binary
84.221	Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
83.768	Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022?	Binary
83.083	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Lesotho)	Binary
83.083	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Rwanda)	Binary
82.615	If Russia vetoes the UN Security Council vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, will the UN General Assembly override the veto?	Binary
82.522	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection in 2022?	Binary
82.224	Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022?	Binary
81.817	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Guinea)	Binary
81.817	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Sierra Leone)	Binary
81.817	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Liberia)	Binary
81.817	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Senegal)	Binary
81.817	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Gabon)	Binary
81.810	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Guinea-Bissau)	Binary
81.788	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Zimbabwe)	Binary
80.422	Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?	Binary
80.083	Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?	Binary
79.684	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Korea DPR)	Binary
79.684	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Cambodia)	Binary
79.244	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Eswatini (Swaziland))	Binary
79.195	Will there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)?	Binary
79.102	Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?	Binary
78.469	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Tajikistan)	Binary
78.275	How many subscribers will the Effective Altruism subreddit have on January 1, 2023?	Continuous
77.938	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Djibouti)	Binary
77.599	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Aug 21, 2022)	Continuous
77.505	Before 2023, will Joe Biden announce that he will not run for president in 2024?	Binary
77.239	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Nicaragua)	Binary
77.039	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Burundi)	Binary
77.039	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Tanzania)	Binary
76.936	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?	Binary
76.336	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Bolivia)	Binary
76.336	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Guatemala)	Binary
75.908	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Jul 24, 2022)	Continuous
75.569	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Angola)	Binary
74.634	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Côte d'Ivoire)	Binary
74.426	Will Twitter's board accept an acquisition offer from someone other than Elon Musk before 2023?	Binary
74.364	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Equatorial Guinea)	Binary
73.995	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Morocco)	Binary
73.294	Will Tether collapse before 2023?	Binary
72.699	Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
72.333	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Eritrea)	Binary
71.713	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Iranian Rial IRR)	Binary
71.137	Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022?	Binary
70.927	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Saudi Riyal SAR)	Binary
70.844	Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?	Binary
70.783	Will the British pound trade below $1 before 2023?	Binary
70.579	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Indian Rupee ₹)	Binary
69.561	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Honduras)	Binary
69.406	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (El Salvador)	Binary
69.280	Will Governor Newsom be Reelected Governor of California in 2022?	Binary
68.930	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023?	Binary
68.279	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Kenya)	Binary
68.155	How many people in Russia will be arrested for participating in anti-war protests before 2023?	Continuous
67.425	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Mexican Peso $)	Binary
67.308	Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022?	Binary
66.939	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Nepal)	Binary
66.233	Will J.D. Vance win the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio?	Binary
65.513	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Togo)	Binary
65.428	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Michael Gove)	Binary
65.428	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Priti Patel)	Binary
65.428	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
65.393	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
64.836	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Tom Tugendhat)	Binary
64.699	Will Beto O'Rourke win the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election?	Binary
62.971	Will the DART asteroid mission successfully impact in 2022?	Binary
62.956	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Bangladeshi Taka ৳)	Binary
62.262	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Indonesian Rupiah Rp)	Binary
61.449	Will a Republican be elected governor of Maryland in 2022?	Binary
61.076	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Benin)	Binary
60.622	Will the New York Times place Wordle (or any currently existing part of Wordle) behind a paywall during 2022?	Binary
59.457	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?	Binary
59.050	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (European Union Euro €)	Binary
59.044	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Chinese Yuan Renminbi ¥)	Binary
58.577	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Lao PDR)	Binary
58.366	How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections?	Continuous
58.291	Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?	Binary
57.425	What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of December 31, 2022?	Continuous
56.594	Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev exit the Presidency of Kazakhstan in 2022?	Binary
56.063	Will PredictIt default on its obligation to allow its users to withdraw funds before 2023?	Binary
56.009	Before 2023, will the US CDC recommend the general use of the monkeypox vaccine for all men who have sex with men in the US?	Binary
55.474	What will be the total number of reported monkeypox cases in New York as of December 31, 2022?	Continuous
55.051	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Jul 24, 2022)	Continuous
54.354	Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
54.020	How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022?	Continuous
53.336	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Penny Mordaunt)	Binary
52.655	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Papua New Guinea)	Binary
52.289	Will a cyber action or series of cyber actions trigger NATO’s Article 5 in 2022?	Binary
52.007	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Aug 21, 2022)	Continuous
51.404	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (May 29, 2022)	Continuous
50.628	Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?	Binary
50.445	In 2022, how many people will be charged by US DOJ with seditious conspiracy in connection with the Jan 6 Capitol attack?	Continuous
50.284	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Jun 26, 2022)	Continuous
49.825	Will Russian or Belarusian troops cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts before 2023?	Binary
48.818	Will Stacey Abrams be elected Governor of Georgia in 2022?	Binary
48.659	Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
48.635	How many US troops will be in Europe on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
48.607	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Thai Baht ฿)	Binary
48.523	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
47.763	What will be the total number of reported monkeypox cases in California as of December 31, 2022?	Continuous
46.964	Will Doug Mastriano be elected Governor of Pennsylvania in 2022?	Binary
46.826	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Polish złoty ł)	Binary
46.473	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (May 1, 2022)	Continuous
45.958	Will Leondra Kruger be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
45.923	Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
45.793	Will any single cyberattack in 2022 result in damages over $10 billion?	Binary
45.762	Will Éric Zemmour be in the 2nd round of the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
43.684	Will Princeton cancel in person classes in January 2022?	Binary
43.253	Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023?	Binary
42.791	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Brazillian Real R$)	Binary
42.730	Will EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
41.722	Will there be an armed conflict in the South China Sea before 2023?	Binary
41.293	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (May 29, 2022)	Continuous
40.438	What percentage of monkeypox cases in California will be among cisgender men who are gay/same-gender loving or bisexual?	Continuous
39.976	How many countries will confirm at least one case of monkeypox by July 31, 2022?	Continuous
39.501	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?	Binary
38.207	Will UK initiate its rota load shedding plan during 2022-2023 winter?	Binary
37.983	Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
37.796	Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 before 2023?	Binary
37.511	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (India)	Binary
36.103	What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of August 31, 2022?	Continuous
35.695	Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
35.317	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy's image appear on the cover of Time's 2022 Person of the Year issue, more prominently than any other person's image?	Binary
35.154	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Nigerian Naira ₦)	Binary
34.695	Will China make a successful, major cyberattack on Taiwanese critical infrastructure before December 31, 2022?	Binary
34.157	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Liz Truss)	Binary
34.132	Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
33.454	Will Xi Jinping be re-elected paramount leader in 2022?	Binary
32.744	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Sergio Perez)	Binary
32.744	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Carlos Sainz)	Binary
32.744	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (George Russell)	Binary
32.744	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Lewis Hamilton)	Binary
32.383	What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (September 1, 2022)	Continuous
31.766	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Charles Leclerc)	Binary
31.296	Will Omicron XE be the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the US before June 19, 2022?	Binary
30.260	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Max Verstappen)	Binary
29.610	Will the US claim that a Russian disinformation campaign attempted to influence the 2022 midterm elections?	Binary
29.519	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Europe as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
29.218	Will the Senate Commerce committee reach an agreement on preemption for a federal data security and data privacy law in 2022?	Binary
29.093	Will Ukraine acknowledge having fired the missile that killed two people in Przewodów, Poland, before 2023?	Binary
28.761	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Canada as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
28.374	Will Mehmet Oz win the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania?	Binary
28.351	How many seats will Democrats win in the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Continuous
27.575	How many civilian casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War will there be before May 2022?	Continuous
27.142	Will there be a successful cyberattack on the 2022 FIFA World Cup?	Binary
27.094	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Alex Jones)	Binary
26.588	Will Blake Masters win the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona?	Binary
26.022	Will James Charles have more than 25 million Youtube subscribers by January 1, 2023?	Binary
24.939	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in the United States as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
24.900	Will the US Government designate Russia a "State Sponsor of Terrorism" by 2023?	Binary
24.810	Will any of the ongoing BioNTech mRNA cancer vaccine trials proceed to Phase III trials in 2022?	Binary
24.657	Will Raphael Warnock be re-elected in the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia?	Binary
23.654	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Pakistan)	Binary
23.482	Will Ron Johnson win the 2022 Wisconsin US Senate election?	Binary
23.356	When will Paxlovid be given FDA authorization or approval for patients who are not high-risk?	Continuous
22.820	How many acres will burn in wildfires in California in 2022?	Continuous
22.612	Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
22.384	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Russian Ruble ₽)	Binary
21.895	Will the weights of the 175B parameter model be made publicly available via a leak or hack by 2023?	Binary
21.489	When will China end Covid Zero?	Continuous
21.482	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Argentine Peso $)	Binary
21.273	Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
21.237	Will Facebook decide to make the weights of the 175B parameter model publicly available before 2023?	Binary
20.679	Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?	Binary
19.818	Will average semiconductor chip lead times (amount of time between order and delivery) drop to below 15 weeks at any point before July 1, 2022?	Binary
19.723	Will Rick Caruso be elected Mayor of Los Angeles in 2022?	Binary
19.704	Will the European Central Bank raise interest rates in 2022?	Binary
19.374	Will an impactful penetration of a software supply chain be discovered by a party other than themselves in 2022?	Binary
19.057	Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
19.022	Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?	Binary
18.985	Will the US executive branch attempt to ban or otherwise further limit ransomware payments in 2022?	Binary
18.863	Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut the Kerch Strait Cable before 2023?	Binary
18.502	Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut an undersea internet cable before 2023?	Binary
16.922	Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?	Binary
15.777	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (May 1, 2022)	Continuous
15.540	Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?	Binary
15.181	How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in 2022?	Continuous
14.496	Will a cyberattack using the Log4J exploit cause $20 million in damage to a single target before September 1, 2022?	Binary
14.431	Will a cyberattack directly cause one or more deaths in 2022?	Binary
14.396	What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in December 2022?	Continuous
13.646	Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?	Binary
12.891	What will be the price of 1 ETH on the following dates? (December 31, 2022)	Continuous
12.237	Will more than 20,000 people die within 28 days of a positive Covid test in the UK in 2022?	Binary
12.124	[Short Fuse] What percentage "yes" will Elon Musk's Twitter poll have for stepping down as head of Twitter?	Continuous
11.836	By February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope successfully see First Light?	Binary
11.677	Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
11.264	Will Brandy Bottone, the pregnant woman pulled over in Texas for an HOV lane violation, be found guilty in court?	Binary
11.149	Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?	Binary
10.573	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Donald Trump)	Binary
9.923	When will the Apple Watch Series 8 be available for pre-order?	Continuous
9.655	Will Pakistan default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
8.984	Will Gotabaya Rajapaksa no longer be the President of Sri Lanka before 2023?	Binary
8.273	Will there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)?	Binary
8.066	Will there be a bilateral ceasefire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2023?	Binary
7.478	What will the estimated cybersecurity workforce gap for the United States be on October 15, 2022?	Continuous
7.236	By December 31, 2022, will the US federal government announce an extension of the pause on federal student loan repayments?	Binary
7.050	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Pierre Poilievre)	Binary
7.050	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Scott Aitchison)	Binary
7.050	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Roman Baber)	Binary
7.050	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Jean Charest)	Binary
7.050	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Leslyn Lewis)	Binary
6.994	Will the U.S. Congress pass legislation authorizing at least $50 billion to the semiconductor industry before May 1, 2022?	Binary
5.838	Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022?	Binary
5.814	How many border crossings leaving Ukraine will there be in 2022?	Continuous
5.538	How much crude oil will the US hold in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as of December 2022?	Continuous
5.494	Before 2023, will FTX.US default or suspend payment to at least one FTX.US user?	Binary
5.185	[short-fuse] Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
5.171	When will desktop Intel Arc Alchemist GPUs launch?	Continuous
4.913	Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	Binary
4.749	Will Sarah Palin be elected as US Representative for Alaska in 2022?	Binary
4.683	If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023?	Binary
3.144	Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan in 2022?	Binary
3.091	Will a cyberattack target a major system's data integrity before July 1, 2022?	Binary
3.089	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Marjorie Taylor Greene)	Binary
2.666	What percent of global organizations will experience a successful email-based phishing attack in 2022?	Continuous
2.562	Will the US sanction Russian oil or gas before 2023?	Binary
2.406	Will David Segal win the RI-2 Democratic primary?	Binary
2.341	Will a popular online identity verification service be breached in 2022?	Binary
2.093	Will the ceasefire in Yemen hold for its intended duration?	Binary
1.870	What percent of voters will vote in favor of Sioux Falls' 2022 Slaughterhouse ballot question?	Continuous
0.757	Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
0.685	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Democratic Republic of Congo)	Binary
0.521	Will Ukraine win the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest?	Binary
0.195	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Philadelphia Phillies)	Binary
0.195	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Houston Astros)	Binary
0.064	What will be the US unemployment rate in October 2022?	Continuous
-0.027	By December 31, 2022, will Twitter agree to be taken private by Elon Musk?	Binary
-0.185	Will a DDoS attack of greater than 3.5TPS occur in 2022?	Binary
-0.212	Will the US make any new commitment of over $1M for the prevention of biological weapons deployment at the 2022 BWC Review Conference?	Binary
-0.418	Will Rafael Nadal make it to the semifinals of every Grand Slam in 2022?	Binary
-0.453	Will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) exceed 60 on any single day in 2022?	Binary
-0.503	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Laura Loomer)	Binary
-0.947	Will Queen Elizabeth II abdicate in 2022?	Binary
-1.156	Will the Kenyan Supreme court nullify the results of the 2022 Presidential Election?	Binary
-2.027	Will Catherine Cortez Masto be re-elected in the 2022 US Senate election in Nevada?	Binary
-2.496	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Milo Yiannopoulos)	Binary
-3.202	[short fuse] Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in 2022?	Binary
-4.002	What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (November 1, 2022)	Continuous
-5.421	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Bangladesh)	Binary
-7.724	Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022?	Binary
-9.806	How many ransomware attacks against U.S. educational institutions will be reported in 2022?	Continuous
-13.433	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Jared Taylor)	Binary
-15.384	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Tila Tequila)	Binary
-17.102	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny))	Binary
-17.256	Will the Israeli Labor Party run alone?	Binary
-19.210	Will there be a female Fields Medalist in 2022?	Binary
-19.502	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Jun 26, 2022)	Continuous
-22.513	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Pakistani Rupee ₨)	Binary
-28.137	Will Seattle's Approval Voting ballot initiative (Initiative 134) pass?	Binary
-29.776	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Uganda)	Binary
-32.884	Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?	Binary
-34.828	Will the study “Knowledge about others reduces one’s own sense of anonymity” (Nature, 2022) replicate?	Binary
-36.473	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?	Binary
-37.456	Will Solana be in the top-10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on December 31, 2022?	Binary
-37.653	What will total NATO defense spending be in 2022?	Continuous
-40.514	What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of August 31, 2022?	Continuous
-49.567	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Egyptian Pound £E)	Binary
-66.210	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Turkish Lira ₺)	Binary
-78.456	What will be the market capitalization of Netflix on December 1, 2022?	Continuous
-83.271	Will 2022 venture capital investment in cybersecurity companies surpass 2021?	Binary
-126.341	What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (January 1, 2023)	Continuous
-128.587	Will the UK authorise fourth doses of Covid vaccines for healthy adults in 2022?	Binary
-194.871	Will "Counterfeit Diversity: How Strategically Misrepresenting Gender Diversity Dampens Organizations’ Perceived Sincerity and Elevates Women’s Identity Threat Concerns" (JPSP, 2022) replicate?	Continuous
-212.745	How many states in the United States will report having a case of monkeypox as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
-518.218	Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022?	Binary