PhilippSchoenegger

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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11.41k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
121.732	How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (March 2023)	Continuous
99.460	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
98.444	Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?	Binary
98.411	Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024?	Binary
97.648	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Poland 2050)	Binary
97.648	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Agreement)	Binary
97.648	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Kukiz'15)	Binary
97.648	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Democratic Left)	Binary
97.616	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Polish Coalition)	Binary
97.615	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Confederation)	Binary
97.604	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (New Left)	Binary
97.285	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
96.917	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
95.447	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Rabiu Kwankwaso)	Binary
95.294	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
94.975	Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024?	Binary
94.813	Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
94.497	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
93.973	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?	Binary
93.664	Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?	Binary
93.523	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?	Binary
93.308	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
93.268	Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?	Binary
93.153	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
93.040	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
93.014	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
91.752	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa)	Binary
91.612	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
91.293	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
90.409	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba)	Binary
89.524	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
87.971	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
87.478	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
87.323	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
86.934	What will be the size of the 2024 EU Budget?	Continuous
86.339	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
85.476	Will at least one mink farm worker die from any strain of bird flu in 2023?	Binary
84.642	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)	Binary
84.633	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)	Binary
84.623	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
84.623	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)	Binary
84.607	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)	Binary
84.599	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
84.599	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)	Binary
84.599	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)	Binary
84.599	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
84.251	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)	Binary
84.250	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)	Binary
84.247	When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water?	Continuous
84.217	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
84.217	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
84.154	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
83.919	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
83.913	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
83.913	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
83.737	Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?	Binary
83.260	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
83.240	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)	Binary
82.886	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
82.679	Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?	Binary
82.606	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
81.759	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
80.395	How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (June 2023)	Continuous
79.700	Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?	Binary
79.595	Will OpenAI release a "product" after ChatGPT before 2024?	Binary
78.932	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sam Altman)	Binary
78.887	How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (September 2023)	Continuous
78.656	ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023? (No) → Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023?	Binary
78.268	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Mark Zuckerberg)	Binary
78.268	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Demis Hassabis)	Binary
78.268	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sundar Pichai)	Binary
77.634	Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?	Binary
77.394	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
76.718	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
76.679	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
76.521	How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (December 2023)	Continuous
75.737	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Dario Amodei)	Binary
75.677	Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?	Binary
75.615	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
75.239	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
75.229	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
74.676	[Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023?	Binary
74.174	Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?	Binary
74.167	Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?	Binary
74.018	Will there no longer be any authorized COVID therapeutic in the U.S. in 2023?	Binary
72.735	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Ash Regan)	Binary
72.679	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?	Binary
72.297	How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
71.525	Will the President of Zimbabwe at the end of 2023 represent the ZANU-PF party?	Binary
71.125	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Atiku Abubakar)	Binary
70.691	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
70.689	Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023?	Binary
70.286	How many new businesses will be formed in the US in 2023?	Continuous
69.540	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
69.523	Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?	Binary
66.567	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (All Other Teams Not Listed)	Binary
66.376	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
66.147	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
65.383	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
64.507	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
63.946	What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023?	Continuous
63.745	Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?	Binary
63.293	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
63.282	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
62.753	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?	Binary
62.597	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
61.528	What will the Geopolitical Risk index be for 2023?	Continuous
58.226	Will Luisa González receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election?	Binary
57.961	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Law and Justice (PiS))	Binary
56.384	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
54.934	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
54.933	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
54.922	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
54.920	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
54.918	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
53.745	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
53.577	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
52.663	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
52.568	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
52.451	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
52.362	Will there be more than 10 ministerial resignations in Rishi Sunak’s government before 2024?	Binary
52.356	Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?	Binary
52.316	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
49.578	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
48.313	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
48.036	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Civic Platform)	Binary
47.994	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
47.881	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
47.595	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
47.021	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
46.778	Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?	Binary
46.614	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?	Continuous
46.455	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
46.173	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Lakers)	Binary
45.693	Trump participates in first debate? (No) → Trump Polling Change Two Weeks After Debate?	Continuous
44.869	Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?	Binary
42.378	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Podemos)	Binary
41.764	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
41.074	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Vox)	Binary
40.820	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
40.311	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
39.110	Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2023?	Binary
38.152	Will copper prices reach an all-time-high in 2023?	Binary
36.725	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (New York Knicks)	Binary
36.072	Will the EU Parliament endorse a negotiating mandate for the AI Act before June 16, 2023?	Binary
35.738	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
35.192	Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?	Binary
34.834	What will be the value of bilateral US-Taiwan trade in 2023?	Continuous
34.375	Will the statutory debt limit be increased or suspended for at least 30 days in the United States before 2024?	Binary
34.326	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
33.117	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Kate Forbes)	Binary
32.847	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
31.816	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Florida Panthers)	Binary
31.692	How much money (in US dollars) will GlobalGiving's Morocco Earthquake Relief Fund have raised on September 21, 2023?	Continuous
30.789	Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
30.589	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
29.836	Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023?	Binary
29.590	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
29.137	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Colombia)	Binary
27.685	How many FDIC banks will fail in 2023?	Continuous
27.049	Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?	Binary
25.225	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
23.029	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
22.926	How many total seats will the Pheu Thai and Move Forward parties win in the Thailand election?	Continuous
21.258	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
20.913	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Cole (R))	Binary
20.913	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Nancy Mace (R))	Binary
20.913	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
20.913	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
20.913	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
20.913	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
20.913	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
20.912	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
20.912	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
20.828	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Peter Obi)	Binary
20.745	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
19.969	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Sacramento Kings)	Binary
19.760	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
18.533	Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?	Binary
18.146	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
17.356	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Morocco)	Binary
17.115	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Jamaica)	Binary
15.820	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Humza Yusaf)	Binary
15.483	What will the price of November 2023 Dutch TTF natural gas futures (in Euros per megawatt-hour) be on September 29, 2023?	Continuous
14.977	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (New Jersey Devils)	Binary
14.822	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Clippers)	Binary
14.814	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Cleveland Cavaliers)	Binary
14.642	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
14.452	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Denmark)	Binary
14.208	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Nigeria)	Binary
13.973	Will ChatGPT have multiple tiers of capability before 2024?	Binary
13.673	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
13.354	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
13.145	What percentage of the possession will the winning team have in the Women's World Cup Final?	Continuous
13.140	Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?	Binary
12.420	Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case?	Binary
11.882	Debt Limit Increased or Suspended in 2023? (Yes) → U.S. Debt Default Before 2024?	Binary
11.622	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
11.560	Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?	Binary
11.286	Will the Arctic sea ice extent be lower on each day of 2023 compared to that of 2012?	Binary
11.226	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
11.026	Will the winner of stage 9 of the 2023 Tour De France also hold the yellow jersey at the end of the stage?	Binary
10.740	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
10.478	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Africa)	Binary
10.306	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
10.297	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Denver Nuggets)	Binary
8.398	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Norway)	Binary
8.031	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Switzerland)	Binary
6.931	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?	Binary
6.795	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Boston Celtics)	Binary
5.558	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (People's Party (PP))	Binary
5.161	Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?	Binary
4.383	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (PSOE)	Binary
4.375	Will Virgin Orbit file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
4.148	Will countries commit at least 100 US/German-made modern main battle tanks to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
3.893	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Dallas Stars)	Binary
3.635	Will USDC restore its peg before May 1, 2023?	Binary
3.278	Will Israel and Hamas conduct a prisoner exchange involving ≥20 Israelis and ≥20 Palestinians in 2023?	Binary
2.881	Will Sweden's Loreen win the Eurovision Song Contest 2023?	Binary
2.766	[Short Fuse] Will Credit Suisse experience any of the following scenarios before May 2023?	Binary
2.407	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Korea)	Binary
1.977	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Memphis Grizzlies)	Binary
1.735	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (All other teams)	Binary
1.340	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
1.219	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (NY Rangers)	Binary
0.001	Will Apple announce a Virtual Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
-	Erdoğan wins 2023 Turkish Presidential Election? (Yes) → Swedish NATO Membership by 2024?	Binary
-0.775	Will the suspected Chinese surveillance balloon be on the ground before February 11th, 2023?	Binary
-5.103	When will Joe Biden issue his third veto?	Continuous
-5.324	Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-5.579	Will the 2023 Presidential Elections in Sierra Leone proceed to a runoff?	Binary
-5.897	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-5.992	Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?	Binary
-6.497	Will the US Supreme Court declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional?	Binary
-6.858	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Bola Tinubu)	Binary
-7.254	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
-10.401	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-11.641	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-11.765	Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?	Binary
-12.766	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
-14.822	Will the US FDA authorize a new vaccine targeting COVID-19 in 2023?	Binary
-21.587	Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?	Binary
-26.273	Will the total number of people staying in NYC homeless shelters exceed 100,000 for any day of 2023?	Binary
-31.738	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
-43.176	What percentage of the vote will presidential candidate candidate Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Open Primaries Elections?	Continuous
-44.624	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-87.821	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
-94.415	Will US sovereign debt be downgraded in 2023?	Binary
-147.109	Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary

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Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

PhilippSchoenegger

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PhilippSchoenegger