PhilippSchoenegger

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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16.76k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
148.916	How much money will the FTX Foundation distribute in 2023?	Continuous
120.310	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
98.327	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ID)	Binary
98.327	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (GUE-NGL)	Binary
98.164	Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?	Binary
97.911	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024?	Binary
97.699	Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?	Binary
97.426	What percentage of black voters will vote for a Republican president in the 2024 US presidential election?	Continuous
97.159	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
96.909	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Greens–EFA)	Binary
96.735	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
96.552	Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?	Binary
96.541	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
96.541	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
96.522	Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?	Binary
96.367	Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?	Binary
96.159	Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination? (Yes) → Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024?	Binary
95.804	Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025?	Binary
95.712	Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
95.498	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
95.476	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Renew)	Binary
95.476	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ECR)	Binary
95.403	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
95.384	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson)	Binary
94.955	Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?	Binary
94.808	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
94.687	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
94.188	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie)	Binary
94.188	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney)	Binary
93.839	By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
93.783	Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?	Binary
93.692	When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?	Continuous
93.360	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
92.756	Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?	Binary
92.723	Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025?	Binary
92.550	By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
91.728	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2024)	Binary
91.716	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas)	Binary
91.627	On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election?	Binary
91.297	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott)	Binary
90.916	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
90.762	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
90.504	By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
90.315	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
90.315	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott)	Binary
89.880	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
89.229	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson)	Binary
88.955	Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023?	Binary
88.809	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida)	Binary
88.268	Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025?	Binary
87.818	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire)	Binary
87.477	Will Meta's Horizon Worlds report more than 500,000 active users for any month of 2023?	Binary
87.454	Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?	Binary
86.718	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
86.507	Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?	Binary
86.432	Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
86.406	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota)	Binary
86.188	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024?	Binary
86.066	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
85.969	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
85.948	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
85.784	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
85.450	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
84.531	Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?	Binary
84.369	Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?	Binary
84.101	Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2025)	Binary
83.969	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024)	Binary
83.876	Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025?	Binary
83.163	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (GUE-NGL)	Binary
83.163	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ID)	Binary
83.081	Will India conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 Indian general elections?	Binary
82.901	Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?	Binary
82.474	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
82.420	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Greens–EFA)	Binary
82.393	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
81.999	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd)	Binary
81.724	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
81.157	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
81.135	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
81.092	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio)	Binary
80.910	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ECR)	Binary
80.900	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
80.608	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez)	Binary
79.865	By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
79.613	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Renew)	Binary
79.587	Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025?	Binary
79.201	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025)	Binary
77.175	Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?	Binary
77.149	Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?	Binary
76.783	Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2023?	Binary
76.442	Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?	Binary
76.309	Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
75.357	Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)?	Binary
74.945	Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025?	Binary
74.779	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico)	Binary
74.660	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?	Binary
74.450	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
74.420	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
74.091	Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?	Binary
73.389	By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
72.961	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
72.157	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
71.695	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1)	Binary
71.692	Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session??	Binary
71.644	Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?	Binary
71.417	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa)	Binary
71.346	Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025?	Binary
71.140	Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?	Binary
71.079	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
71.034	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia)	Binary
70.806	Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?	Binary
70.725	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska)	Binary
70.698	Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?	Binary
70.556	In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?	Binary
70.231	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder)	Binary
70.078	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
69.977	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
69.958	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein)	Binary
69.958	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West)	Binary
69.958	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver)	Binary
68.965	Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023?	Binary
68.925	When will the Republican presidential nominee next win the state of Massachusetts in a US Presidential Election? (2024)	Binary
68.770	What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022?	Continuous
68.051	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2)	Binary
67.746	Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?	Binary
67.138	Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?	Binary
67.050	Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025?	Binary
66.414	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, not optional)	Binary
66.169	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
65.532	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?	Binary
65.165	Will an act such as the JCPA significantly strengthen US news companies' bargaining position before 2025?	Binary
65.020	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?	Binary
64.257	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
64.257	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
64.257	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
64.257	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams)	Binary
64.196	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren)	Binary
64.118	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)	Binary
64.095	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
63.874	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
63.405	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
62.873	What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
62.848	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
62.627	Will any state hold a caucus instead of a primary for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2024?	Binary
62.290	Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?	Binary
61.546	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (European Union)	Binary
61.076	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022?	Continuous
60.884	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur)	Binary
60.840	Will Tether collapse before 2025?	Binary
60.794	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips)	Binary
60.413	Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024?	Binary
60.358	Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025?	Binary
60.163	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
59.997	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, not optional)	Binary
59.505	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
59.490	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas)	Binary
59.490	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah)	Binary
59.304	Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025?	Binary
59.030	Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?	Binary
58.754	Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025?	Binary
58.606	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power)	Binary
58.606	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government)	Binary
57.996	Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?	Binary
57.310	Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Binary
56.995	Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?	Binary
56.447	Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?	Binary
56.116	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
55.565	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
55.464	Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023?	Binary
55.158	Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?	Binary
54.409	Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?	Binary
53.968	Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?	Binary
53.943	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
53.751	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
53.083	Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
52.992	What will be the annual headline CPI inflation in the United States in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
52.642	When will the UK hold its next general election?	Continuous
51.233	Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?	Binary
51.056	By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?	Binary
50.999	Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?	Binary
50.693	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (S&D)	Binary
50.020	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
49.907	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?	Binary
49.893	Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?	Binary
49.335	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado)	Binary
49.222	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, optional)	Binary
49.028	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, optional)	Binary
48.707	Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?	Binary
48.319	What will be the average unemployment in the US from January 2022 to December 2024?	Continuous
47.045	Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?	Binary
46.996	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide))	Binary
46.789	Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?	Binary
46.514	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?	Continuous
46.292	Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025?	Binary
44.764	Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled?	Binary
44.684	When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.?	Continuous
44.517	Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025?	Binary
43.977	Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?	Binary
43.826	Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?	Binary
43.561	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (December 31, 2024)	Continuous
43.291	Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, optional)	Binary
42.980	What will the price of oil be for December 2022?	Continuous
42.834	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI)	Binary
42.710	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
42.586	Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic)	Binary
42.387	Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025?	Binary
42.229	Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024?	Binary
42.086	Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind)	Binary
41.961	Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic)	Binary
41.846	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
41.810	Will Oil Exports account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024?	Binary
41.509	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
41.452	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
41.218	Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025?	Binary
41.057	Will a university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again?	Binary
40.439	Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (K. Starmer (Labour))	Binary
39.786	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023?	Binary
39.353	Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?	Binary
38.829	Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025?	Binary
38.587	Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?	Binary
38.480	Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?	Binary
38.272	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3)	Binary
37.626	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
37.264	Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025?	Binary
36.807	Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?	Binary
36.616	Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?	Binary
35.970	5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025?	Binary
35.697	Will the "Moon Cube" be shown to be non-natural before 2023?	Binary
35.561	Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023?	Binary
35.203	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (September 30, 2024)	Continuous
34.374	Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025?	Binary
34.192	What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022?	Continuous
33.511	Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023?	Binary
33.370	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
33.073	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
32.981	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina)	Binary
32.455	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (March 31, 2024)	Continuous
32.404	When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?	Continuous
32.096	Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (EPP)	Binary
31.866	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
31.442	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (S&D)	Binary
31.000	What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (June 30, 2024)	Continuous
30.548	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey)	Binary
30.265	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
30.080	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan)	Binary
30.008	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?	Binary
29.672	Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023?	Binary
29.622	If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025?	Binary
29.571	Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?	Binary
29.436	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Bankman-Fried)	Binary
29.138	Will Sadiq Khan win re-election in the 2024 London Mayoral Elections?	Binary
28.639	When will Julian Assange be extradited to the US?	Continuous
28.538	Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (R. Sunak (Tories))	Binary
28.074	Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
27.948	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
27.357	Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA before 2025?	Binary
27.289	When will the next German government be formed?	Continuous
27.024	Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?	Binary
26.857	Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?	Binary
26.850	Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?	Binary
26.631	Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023?	Binary
26.602	Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?	Binary
26.064	What retail market share will plant-based milk make up of the total milk category in the US in 2022?	Continuous
25.667	Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023?	Binary
25.479	When will Apple announce the first computer that uses the second generation of their M-series processor (likely to be named the M2)?	Continuous
25.456	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump)	Binary
25.456	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence)	Binary
25.456	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie)	Binary
25.456	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
25.456	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
25.456	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump)	Binary
25.456	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake)	Binary
25.456	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders)	Binary
25.456	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene)	Binary
25.456	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
25.456	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin)	Binary
25.456	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds)	Binary
25.456	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem)	Binary
25.456	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
25.456	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
25.456	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds)	Binary
25.456	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst)	Binary
25.456	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace)	Binary
25.449	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt)	Binary
25.449	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson)	Binary
25.414	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
25.408	Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?	Binary
25.123	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
25.123	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
25.123	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott)	Binary
25.123	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
25.116	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard)	Binary
25.116	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
25.116	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik)	Binary
25.116	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio)	Binary
25.116	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
24.566	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat)	Continuous
24.511	What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500?	Continuous
24.354	Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?	Binary
24.316	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
24.293	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (April 2024)	Continuous
24.199	Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?	Binary
23.830	Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
23.333	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate & House)	Binary
23.326	What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (August 2024)	Continuous
23.109	Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?	Binary
22.399	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
22.367	Will Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024?	Binary
22.296	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate, Dem House)	Binary
22.207	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
22.053	Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (European Union)	Binary
21.985	Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?	Binary
21.853	Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?	Binary
21.626	Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026?	Binary
21.304	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
20.348	Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
19.859	Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan?	Binary
19.813	Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
19.340	What will be the lowest US unemployment rate in 2022?	Continuous
19.237	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York)	Binary
19.237	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD))	Binary
19.132	Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
19.095	Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (BJP)	Binary
19.095	Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (INC)	Binary
18.923	Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?	Binary
18.219	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
17.878	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
17.802	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D))	Binary
17.637	What will be the UK's annual inflation rate in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
17.312	Will UK inflation as expressed by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) exceed 4% before 31 December 2021?	Binary
17.175	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Brazil)	Binary
16.928	When will 100M doses of Moderna's Omicron-specific booster candidate or multi-valent booster candidates be distributed?	Continuous
16.818	What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US, in billions USD, in 2022?	Continuous
16.716	What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review?	Continuous
16.693	What will be the British male life expectancy at birth in 2021 according to the UK Office of National Statistics?	Continuous
16.271	What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?	Continuous
16.033	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
15.862	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
15.376	Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026?	Binary
15.368	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Vietnam)	Binary
15.230	What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (February 2024)	Continuous
15.109	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
14.618	Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?	Binary
13.989	Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?	Binary
13.585	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD))	Binary
13.417	Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?	Binary
13.249	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz)	Binary
13.119	Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?	Binary
12.665	What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
11.512	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD))	Binary
11.386	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (China)	Binary
11.354	Will the Council of the European Union adopt the proposed expansion to climate-focused export credits before 2025?	Binary
11.139	[Short Fuse] Will OSHA's Emergency Temporary Standard vaccine mandate be blocked or struck down by the US Supreme Court?	Binary
11.103	When will the next UK general election take place?	Continuous
10.936	What will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022?	Continuous
10.920	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Thailand)	Binary
10.611	Will India sign the Artemis Accords before 2025?	Binary
10.213	Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models?	Binary
9.883	How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
9.819	What will Lebanon's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?	Continuous
9.700	Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (EPP)	Binary
9.677	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
9.626	Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?	Binary
8.923	Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024?	Binary
8.605	What will be the annual inflation in Latvia in 2022?	Continuous
8.453	Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections?	Binary
8.423	Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026?	Binary
7.207	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024?	Binary
6.885	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Russia)	Binary
6.666	When will Virginia's statewide mask mandate for K-12 schools be rescinded?	Continuous
6.453	Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?	Binary
6.062	Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates?	Binary
5.692	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati)	Binary
5.692	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt)	Binary
5.692	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella)	Binary
5.692	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy)	Binary
5.692	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Emmett Shear)	Binary
5.692	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever)	Binary
5.613	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman)	Binary
5.545	When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?	Continuous
5.451	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate, Rep House)	Binary
5.332	What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?	Continuous
5.077	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Futbol Club Barcelona)	Binary
5.077	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Al-Hilal Saudi Football Club)	Binary
5.077	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Atlético Newell's Old Boys)	Binary
5.077	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Manchester City Football Club)	Binary
5.077	Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Internacional de Fútbol Miami)	Binary
4.868	How many influenza-associated pediatric deaths will there be in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
4.611	Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?	Binary
3.880	Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?	Binary
3.880	When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
3.520	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative)	Continuous
3.486	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Nishad Singh)	Binary
3.301	Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?	Binary
3.219	When will the CDC eliminate quarantine restrictions for close contacts of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
2.947	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (DUP)	Continuous
2.766	Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?	Binary
2.612	What will be The Economist's estimated global excess deaths due to COVID-19 on January 1, 2023?	Continuous
2.512	Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025?	Binary
2.497	What percentage of new COVID-19 deaths that occur before 1 August 2022 will be in long-term care facilities?	Continuous
1.872	In 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent, will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate?	Binary
1.398	When will the UK Labour Party next maintain a 10-point polling lead for a month?	Continuous
1.218	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Greens)	Continuous
0.980	Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026?	Binary
0.793	Before 2025, will the US FDA authorize use of an at-home over-the-counter rapid test for influenza?	Binary
0.741	Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023?	Binary
0.737	Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?	Binary
0.726	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour)	Continuous
0.653	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
0.301	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (China)	Binary
0.122	Will a Navy ship be captured, scuttled, sunk, or critically damaged in the Black Sea before 2025?	Binary
0.118	Will the US CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before August 1, 2022?	Binary
0.100	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Caroline Ellison)	Binary
-0.096	[short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022?	Binary
-0.464	Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026?	Binary
-0.468	Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output No)	Binary
-0.744	Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023?	Binary
-0.949	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Gary Wang)	Binary
-0.975	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Reform)	Continuous
-1.048	What will the number of active volcanos be in 2022?	Continuous
-1.465	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
-2.303	Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024?	Binary
-2.480	Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023?	Binary
-2.517	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023)	Binary
-3.555	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-3.692	What will be the Shiller P/E ratio of the S&P 500 on January 1, 2025?	Continuous
-7.059	When will US government 10-year bond yields next exceed 2-year bond yields?	Continuous
-7.584	Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?	Binary
-8.847	Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?	Binary
-9.013	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
-9.546	Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?	Binary
-9.608	What will US inflation be in 2022?	Continuous
-10.252	Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?	Binary
-10.711	Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?	Binary
-11.127	Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025?	Binary
-11.484	Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-11.972	Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
-12.501	Will the ANC receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election?	Binary
-12.861	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia)	Binary
-13.621	Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?	Binary
-13.954	Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
-14.663	Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?	Binary
-15.499	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
-15.693	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada)	Binary
-17.510	Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?	Binary
-20.873	Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025?	Binary
-21.361	Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025?	Binary
-21.368	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin)	Binary
-22.466	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
-23.428	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
-23.726	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona)	Binary
-24.300	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
-25.534	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-25.714	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania)	Binary
-28.660	Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?	Binary
-32.640	Will Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024?	Binary
-34.236	Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
-34.954	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel)	Binary
-35.619	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested)	Binary
-36.026	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Ukraine)	Binary
-36.204	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House)	Binary
-37.644	Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?	Binary
-38.823	Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023?	Binary
-45.337	Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?	Binary
-54.061	How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022?	Continuous
-59.249	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (Israel)	Binary
-71.288	By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
-74.794	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan)	Binary
-79.448	By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be "alive"?	Binary
-80.976	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-82.717	In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received?	Binary
-86.512	Will the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act (DCCPA) be passed before 2025?	Binary
-92.932	Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022?	Binary
-97.179	Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?	Binary
-99.682	Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025?	Binary
-107.096	Will the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war be publicly available by 2023?	Binary
-107.972	Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI)	Binary
-129.614	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party)	Continuous
-178.164	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
-254.739	Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics?	Binary