DaAdCh

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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11.75k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
166.658	What will the end of year unemployment rate in South Africa be, according to the Q4 QLFS report, in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
99.437	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
98.911	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
96.452	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
96.331	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 100)	Binary
96.149	Will France send their military to intervene in the Gabonese coup in 2023?	Binary
95.441	Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
95.046	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
94.553	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Yaku Pérez Guartambel)	Binary
94.487	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Bolívar Armijos)	Binary
94.486	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Xavier Hervas)	Binary
93.312	Will the US Housing Market crash in 2023?	Binary
93.194	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?	Binary
93.052	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 300)	Binary
92.993	Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?	Binary
92.959	Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?	Binary
92.809	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
91.553	Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?	Binary
89.992	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
89.570	Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?	Binary
89.318	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
89.093	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Rabiu Kwankwaso)	Binary
87.405	Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
86.963	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
86.176	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
85.470	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
84.464	Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?	Binary
83.557	Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?	Binary
83.249	When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water?	Continuous
83.124	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
82.633	Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?	Binary
82.412	Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024?	Binary
82.116	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
81.710	How many airborne objects will be shot down in North American airspace in 2023?	Continuous
80.603	Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?	Binary
80.383	Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?	Binary
80.119	What will be the highest daily Heat Related Illness (HRI) visit count in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
79.799	Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?	Binary
79.611	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
79.407	Will NASA re-establish communications with Voyager 1 before 1 Jan 2024?	Binary
79.194	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
78.887	Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?	Binary
78.874	Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?	Binary
78.212	Will OpenAI Inc. change its mission statement before the following years? (2024)	Binary
77.047	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 600)	Binary
76.342	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
75.800	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (All Other Teams Not Listed)	Binary
75.263	Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?	Binary
74.687	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
74.665	Will OpenAI release a "product" after ChatGPT before 2024?	Binary
74.470	Will the Palestinian Authority declare itself bankrupt before the end of 2023?	Binary
73.917	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (BBB)	Binary
73.917	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (D66)	Binary
73.917	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (CDA)	Binary
71.746	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?	Binary
71.035	When will bivalent booster uptake in Virginia's 65+ population exceed 50%?	Continuous
69.312	How much money (in US dollars) will GlobalGiving's Morocco Earthquake Relief Fund have raised on September 21, 2023?	Continuous
69.163	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
67.962	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Colombia)	Binary
67.101	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
66.866	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
66.544	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
65.271	Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?	Binary
64.693	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
64.691	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba)	Binary
63.702	Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR COVID-like illness (CLI) visits in Virginia during summer 2023 exceed the same peak during the preceding winter 2022-2023?	Binary
63.467	How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy?	Continuous
63.295	Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?	Binary
62.989	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
62.748	Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate?	Binary
62.195	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?	Binary
61.999	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
61.999	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
61.999	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
61.999	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
61.998	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
61.998	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
61.998	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)	Binary
61.997	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)	Binary
61.997	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)	Binary
61.997	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)	Binary
61.997	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
61.996	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)	Binary
61.996	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)	Binary
61.996	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)	Binary
61.996	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)	Binary
61.620	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
61.491	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
61.489	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
61.460	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
61.301	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
61.046	Will Biden's 538 approval rating be above the following values on the following days? (2023 Dec 31st, ≥ 40%)	Binary
60.017	Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting?	Binary
60.001	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2024)	Binary
59.906	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Nigeria)	Binary
59.860	Will the President of Zimbabwe at the end of 2023 represent the ZANU-PF party?	Binary
59.657	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa)	Binary
59.162	Will Apple release a 15-inch MacBook Air at WWDC on June 5-9, 2023?	Binary
59.062	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
58.921	Will Victor Wembanyama make the NBA All-Star Game in his rookie season?	Binary
57.978	What percentage of Virginia adults will be vaccinated against influenza by the week ending December 30, 2023?	Continuous
57.804	Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2024)	Binary
57.568	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)	Binary
56.931	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Morocco)	Binary
56.694	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Jamaica)	Binary
56.505	US Government Shutdown Before 2024? (No) → Johnson Speaker until 2024?	Binary
56.345	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
54.862	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Arizona Diamondbacks)	Binary
54.768	Will there be more than 10 ministerial resignations in Rishi Sunak’s government before 2024?	Binary
54.666	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Myriam Bregman)	Binary
54.666	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Juan Schiaretti)	Binary
54.376	Will there be more Antarctic sea ice on March 7, 2023 than there was on March 7, 2022?	Binary
54.241	Will either the NBA Finals or the Stanley Cup Finals in 2023 go to a game 7?	Binary
53.881	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Sweden)	Binary
53.269	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Denmark)	Binary
52.727	Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?	Binary
52.617	Will there no longer be any authorized COVID therapeutic in the U.S. in 2023?	Binary
52.503	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
52.133	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Australia)	Binary
50.810	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
50.810	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
50.547	Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?	Binary
49.966	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Africa)	Binary
49.721	Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?	Binary
48.587	Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023?	Binary
48.418	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
48.282	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Ash Regan)	Binary
48.223	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
48.217	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
48.217	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Nancy Mace (R))	Binary
48.024	Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29?	Binary
47.776	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
47.477	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Switzerland)	Binary
47.468	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
47.210	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Norway)	Binary
47.099	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (France)	Binary
46.851	Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2024)	Binary
46.441	Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize?	Binary
45.907	Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?	Binary
45.626	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Emmer (R))	Binary
45.626	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
45.625	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
45.625	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
45.432	In 2023, will a non-European team win the FIFA Club World Cup for the first time since 2012?	Binary
45.172	How many people will die in the Sudan conflict in 2023?	Continuous
44.838	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
42.845	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
42.575	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
42.489	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Haiti)	Binary
42.452	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
42.141	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
42.031	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
41.940	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
41.934	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (China)	Binary
41.833	Will a majority of voters approve Venezuela's referendum on incorporating Guayana Esequiba into Venezuela?	Binary
41.630	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
41.343	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
41.226	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Korea)	Binary
40.671	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (PvdA-GL)	Binary
40.671	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (VVD)	Binary
40.138	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
39.949	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
39.462	Will a mandatory evacuation order be issued for any area of Virginia related to any tropical cyclone in 2023?	Binary
39.088	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Massachusetts for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
38.928	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Argentina)	Binary
38.884	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Italy)	Binary
38.583	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
38.156	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?	Binary
37.892	Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?	Binary
37.529	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (NSC)	Binary
37.317	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
37.003	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
36.366	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Democratic Left)	Binary
36.366	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Confederation)	Binary
36.365	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Kukiz'15)	Binary
36.318	Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?	Binary
36.054	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Philippines)	Binary
35.593	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Portugal)	Binary
35.573	Will the Israeli High Court uphold the "reasonableness" law?	Binary
35.527	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
35.372	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
35.252	Will a US spot Ethereum ETF be approved in 2023?	Binary
35.178	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
35.085	Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?	Binary
34.929	Russian Coup or Regime Change before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
34.818	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Polish Coalition)	Binary
33.419	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Panama)	Binary
33.150	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
32.974	Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class?	Binary
32.391	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (New York Knicks)	Binary
32.245	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Released by captor)	Continuous
32.125	Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season?	Binary
30.926	Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?	Binary
30.691	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
30.486	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Philadelphia Phillies)	Binary
30.336	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Lakers)	Binary
30.230	Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?	Binary
29.609	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
29.397	What will be the size of the 2024 EU Budget?	Continuous
29.216	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (New Zealand)	Binary
28.747	Will the Nigerian Presidential Election on February 25th go to a run-off vote?	Binary
28.430	How many tornado segments will be reported in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
28.162	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Kate Forbes)	Binary
28.150	Will copper prices reach an all-time-high in 2023?	Binary
28.073	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
27.921	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
27.380	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Vietnam)	Binary
26.584	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (February 25)	Continuous
26.383	What will the the total value of property damage (in US dollars) caused by tornados be in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
26.097	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
25.017	Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?	Binary
24.750	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Houston Astros)	Binary
24.355	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
24.124	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Costa Rica)	Binary
24.123	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Zambia)	Binary
23.472	Will the winner of stage 9 of the 2023 Tour De France also hold the yellow jersey at the end of the stage?	Binary
23.323	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Austin Scott (R))	Binary
23.323	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Cole (R))	Binary
23.236	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
23.068	Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
22.580	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
22.170	Will Luisa González receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election?	Binary
21.917	Will the ban on imports of Apple watches with blood oxygen sensors take effect before December 27, 2023?	Binary
21.732	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Republic of Ireland)	Binary
21.637	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
21.235	Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?	Binary
21.005	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Boston Celtics)	Binary
20.883	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
20.736	What percent of US adults will report having received an updated COVID booster vaccine for the 2023-2024 season on the following dates? (December 30, 2023)	Continuous
19.829	What percentage of the vote will Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Presidential Elections’ runoff?	Continuous
19.715	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
19.526	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?	Continuous
19.366	What percentage of the vote will Abdel Fattah El-Sisi win in the first round of the 2023 Egyptian Presidential election?	Continuous
19.308	When will the next volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland begin?	Continuous
18.612	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
18.201	What will the highest monthly count of false English language COVID claims in 2023?	Continuous
18.124	Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
17.985	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
17.971	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Mark Zuckerberg)	Binary
17.954	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
17.417	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
17.398	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
17.358	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sam Altman)	Binary
17.048	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sundar Pichai)	Binary
17.012	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?	Binary
16.965	Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?	Binary
16.775	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2023?	Binary
16.734	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Dario Amodei)	Binary
16.733	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Demis Hassabis)	Binary
16.065	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
16.005	Will the Chinese team at the 64th International Math Olympiad be the top ranked team again?	Binary
15.825	What will be the total daily Heat Related Illness (HRI) visit counts in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
15.545	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (Feb 11)	Continuous
15.121	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Florida Panthers)	Binary
14.827	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Christian Zurita)	Binary
14.615	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Sacramento Kings)	Binary
14.425	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Golden State Warriors)	Binary
14.265	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (New Jersey Devils)	Binary
14.081	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Otto Sonnenholzner)	Binary
14.080	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Jan Topić)	Binary
13.979	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
13.790	When will New York City’s period of consecutive rainy weekends end?	Continuous
13.720	Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024?	Binary
13.074	Will Elizabeth Holmes be in prison on May 31, 2023?	Binary
13.057	Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?	Binary
13.011	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Phoenix Suns)	Binary
12.952	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Canada)	Binary
12.830	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
12.723	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (All other teams)	Binary
12.439	Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?	Binary
12.382	How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (December 2023)	Continuous
12.035	Will at least one mink farm worker die from any strain of bird flu in 2023?	Binary
12.011	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Minnesota Twins)	Binary
11.595	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Brazil)	Binary
11.428	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (0)	Binary
11.345	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
11.153	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Netherlands)	Binary
10.857	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (1)	Binary
10.785	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Sergio Massa)	Binary
10.780	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
10.758	Will the Chandrayaan-3 lander soft-land on the moon?	Binary
10.335	Will Apple announce a Virtual Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
10.181	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Cleveland Cavaliers)	Binary
10.028	Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023?	Binary
10.024	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (United States)	Binary
9.785	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
9.443	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Atlanta Braves)	Binary
9.433	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
9.320	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Hunter Biden (D))	Binary
9.017	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
8.904	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
8.750	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Philadelphia 76ers)	Binary
8.103	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
7.913	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
7.883	Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?	Binary
7.874	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
7.709	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
7.666	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
7.615	Will the total number of people staying in NYC homeless shelters exceed 100,000 for any day of 2023?	Binary
7.564	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Patricia Bullrich)	Binary
7.534	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Japan)	Binary
7.459	Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2023?	Binary
7.399	What percentage of the possession will the winning team have in the Women's World Cup Final?	Continuous
7.123	Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?	Binary
7.090	ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023? (No) → Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023?	Binary
6.928	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
6.913	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Colorado for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
6.567	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
6.565	Will the US Congress approve additional aid for Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
6.501	Will "Epidemiologists" be included on Virginia's next High Demand Occupation List?	Binary
6.267	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
6.206	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
6.161	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Illinois for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
6.120	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Toronto Maple Leafs)	Binary
6.106	Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended?	Binary
6.010	Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023?	Binary
5.927	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
5.888	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Dallas Stars)	Binary
5.825	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
5.706	How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (Labour)	Continuous
5.278	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Missouri for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
5.224	Will the US FDA authorize a new vaccine targeting COVID-19 in 2023?	Binary
5.059	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023)	Binary
5.041	What will be the effective number of political parties in the Netherlands parliament following the 2023 election?	Continuous
4.979	Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)?	Binary
4.927	Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?	Binary
4.628	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Washington for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
4.433	Will large language models become the state of the art for machine translation in 2023?	Binary
4.119	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
3.750	Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?	Binary
3.289	Will countries commit at least 100 US/German-made modern main battle tanks to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
3.285	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
3.285	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
3.242	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
3.217	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
2.945	When will the successor to Kevin McCarthy be elected as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives?	Continuous
2.353	How many Palestinian prisoners/detainees will Israel announce that it will release before 2024?	Continuous
2.278	Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023?	Binary
2.185	Will top institutions participating in the UK’s global AI Safety Summit make concrete and meaningful commitments to advance AI safety?	Binary
2.159	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
2.103	How many workers will go on strike as part of major work stoppages in the US in 2023?	Continuous
1.913	Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?	Binary
1.846	Will GPT-4 exhibit a capability jump for Leetcode questions before 2024?	Binary
1.680	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
1.644	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?	Binary
1.632	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
1.562	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Humza Yusaf)	Binary
1.487	Will the EU Parliament endorse a negotiating mandate for the AI Act before June 16, 2023?	Binary
1.451	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Agreement)	Binary
1.445	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Poland 2050)	Binary
1.432	Will the German Train Drivers' Union (GDL) go on strike again before January 1, 2024?	Binary
1.432	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (New Left)	Binary
1.282	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
1.234	Will Estonia legalize gay marriage in 2023?	Binary
1.128	Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023?	Binary
1.089	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
1.004	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Los Angeles Dodgers)	Binary
0.994	Will Israel still be rated "Free" in the Freedom in the World 2024 Report (covering the year 2023)?	Binary
0.904	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Edmonton Oilers)	Binary
0.853	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
0.814	Will a country other than the United States shoot down a high-altitude object before the end of February, 2023?	Binary
0.675	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Vox)	Binary
0.675	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Podemos)	Binary
0.672	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (NY Rangers)	Binary
0.667	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (LA Kings)	Binary
0.655	How many new businesses will be formed in the US in 2023?	Continuous
0.553	What will the Geopolitical Risk index be for 2023?	Continuous
0.519	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (PSOE)	Binary
0.518	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Tampa Bay Lightning)	Binary
0.506	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (People's Party (PP))	Binary
0.354	What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in California in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles? (2023)	Continuous
0.347	Will year-on-year core inflation in the United States exceed 6% for the year ending in December 2022?	Binary
0.146	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Atiku Abubakar)	Binary
0.056	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
0.011	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Peter Obi)	Binary
-	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
-	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
-	Will the US Supreme Court declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional?	Binary
-	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Denver Nuggets)	Binary
-	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
-	Will the 2023 Presidential Elections in Sierra Leone proceed to a runoff?	Binary
-	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
-	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Luisa González)	Binary
-	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)	Binary
-	Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?	Binary
-	Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?	Binary
-	Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.040	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Bola Tinubu)	Binary
-0.170	Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
-0.941	Will any additional Republican candidates for president drop out before 2024?	Binary
-1.226	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
-2.049	Will Representative George Santos be expelled from the US. House of Representatives before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-2.612	Will the Conservatives hold on to their seat in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election?	Binary
-2.700	Will Ecuador's state of emergency be extended beyond the initial 60 days?	Binary
-4.072	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Vegas Golden Knights)	Binary
-4.133	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
-10.825	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
-12.249	Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
-14.461	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
-15.907	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-18.872	How many ratings will Prince Harry's book Spare have on Amazon on January 20th at 7:00 pm GMT?	Continuous
-23.767	[Short Fuse] How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress?	Continuous
-25.462	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
-30.098	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
-31.506	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-33.010	Will the MONUSCO UN peacekeeping mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo be extended with a military personnel ceiling above 11,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-37.768	Will New York City break its record by going more than 332 days without measurable snow?	Binary
-56.268	Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-56.802	Will US sovereign debt be downgraded in 2023?	Binary
-74.392	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
-87.146	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
-109.030	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
-114.236	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Spain)	Binary
-137.575	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Texas Rangers)	Binary
-159.618	What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) on December 30, 2023?	Continuous
-256.829	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (PVV)	Binary
-721.954	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Daniel Noboa Azín)	Binary

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