98.452 | Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024? | Binary |
97.909 | Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024? | Binary |
96.014 | In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people? | Binary |
92.722 | Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024? | Binary |
92.588 | Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023? | Binary |
92.529 | Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024? | Binary |
92.411 | Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023? | Binary |
92.184 | Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024? | Binary |
90.085 | In 2023 will the UK hold a general election? | Binary |
87.945 | Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Haiti) | Binary |
86.142 | Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
84.699 | Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024? | Binary |
83.106 | In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court? | Binary |
80.798 | Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
80.672 | On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia? | Binary |
78.566 | Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
78.248 | In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"? | Binary |
78.082 | In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran? | Binary |
77.806 | On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter? | Binary |
76.680 | Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023? | Binary |
76.551 | Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024? | Binary |
76.271 | Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024? | Binary |
75.423 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
74.010 | In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine? | Binary |
73.607 | Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
72.635 | Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024? | Binary |
72.555 | In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan? | Binary |
70.290 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk? | Binary |
67.772 | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
63.732 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United) | Binary |
61.321 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Tennessee Titans) | Binary |
61.233 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol? | Binary |
60.880 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton & Hove Albion) | Binary |
60.572 | Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023? | Binary |
59.246 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
58.711 | Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024? | Binary |
57.772 | Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024? | Binary |
56.763 | Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023? | Binary |
56.600 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Las Vegas Raiders) | Binary |
56.406 | Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024? | Binary |
55.496 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Washington Commanders) | Binary |
55.443 | Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
54.493 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brentford) | Binary |
54.031 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024? | Binary |
53.749 | Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023? | Binary |
53.602 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Aston Villa) | Binary |
53.525 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Fulham) | Binary |
51.519 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
51.311 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Mike Schroepfer) | Binary |
51.310 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (David Sacks) | Binary |
51.310 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sriram Krishnan) | Binary |
51.310 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sheryl Sandberg) | Binary |
51.310 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jared Kushner) | Binary |
51.309 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (John Legere) | Binary |
51.307 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jason Calacanis) | Binary |
51.307 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Lex Fridman) | Binary |
51.307 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Blake Masters) | Binary |
51.306 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Peter Thiel) | Binary |
51.306 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Steve Davis) | Binary |
51.069 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Washington Commanders) | Binary |
50.675 | Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023? | Binary |
50.538 | Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023? | Binary |
50.464 | Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023? | Binary |
50.360 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest) | Continuous |
49.598 | On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK? | Binary |
48.687 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
48.366 | Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024? | Binary |
48.160 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Houston Texans) | Binary |
47.682 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers) | Binary |
47.681 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Crystal Palace) | Binary |
47.516 | Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024? | Binary |
47.380 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest) | Binary |
47.379 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leicester City) | Binary |
47.215 | On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war? | Binary |
47.074 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Detroit Lions) | Binary |
46.602 | Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024? | Binary |
45.994 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (West Ham United) | Binary |
45.993 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Southampton) | Binary |
45.993 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Everton) | Binary |
45.993 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leeds United) | Binary |
45.992 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Bournemouth) | Binary |
45.403 | Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
44.370 | Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024? | Binary |
44.215 | Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024? | Binary |
43.096 | Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024? | Binary |
42.745 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City) | Continuous |
41.976 | How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022? | Continuous |
41.954 | Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023? | Binary |
41.477 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Pittsburgh Steelers) | Binary |
41.462 | On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment? | Binary |
41.425 | On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating? | Binary |
40.732 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Elon Musk) | Binary |
39.935 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia? | Binary |
39.229 | What percentage of people in low-income countries will have recieved at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by January 1, 2023? | Continuous |
39.103 | In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency? | Binary |
39.090 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
38.982 | Will the US provide Ukraine with any fighter aircraft? | Continuous |
38.735 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Jacksonville Jaguars) | Binary |
38.462 | On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour? | Binary |
37.791 | Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024? | Binary |
37.641 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers) | Continuous |
36.941 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Carolina Panthers) | Binary |
36.767 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United) | Binary |
36.636 | How many goals will Erling Haaland score in the Premier League 2022/23 season? | Continuous |
36.109 | Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024? | Binary |
35.250 | On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it? | Binary |
35.239 | When will Zelenskyy next be pictured in a suit on his Instagram? | Continuous |
34.503 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Houston Texans) | Binary |
33.801 | Will the US ban TikTok before 2024? | Binary |
33.427 | Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023? | Binary |
31.896 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Liverpool) | Continuous |
31.561 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (San Francisco 49ers) | Binary |
31.471 | In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)? | Binary |
30.970 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Green Bay Packers) | Binary |
30.820 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Kansas City Chiefs) | Binary |
30.797 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Pittsburgh Steelers) | Binary |
30.020 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City) | Binary |
29.862 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Liverpool) | Binary |
29.518 | Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024? | Binary |
29.440 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Chelsea) | Binary |
29.322 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur) | Continuous |
28.959 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Las Vegas Raiders) | Binary |
28.764 | Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023? | Binary |
26.636 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New York Jets) | Binary |
26.626 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
26.561 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Carolina Panthers) | Binary |
26.171 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
25.477 | Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024? | Binary |
24.370 | Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula? | Continuous |
24.366 | When will US or NATO forces conduct military operations in Ukraine or Ukraine's occupied regions? | Continuous |
23.619 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Southampton) | Continuous |
22.478 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Seattle Seahawks) | Binary |
22.239 | How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024? | Continuous |
22.013 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Buffalo Bills) | Binary |
21.964 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Cleveland Browns) | Binary |
21.864 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Cleveland Browns) | Binary |
21.727 | In 2023 will AI win a programming competition? | Binary |
21.437 | In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China? | Binary |
21.370 | Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024? | Binary |
21.255 | Will Tsinghua University bar some students from returning to the dorms for the 2023 Spring Semester? | Binary |
20.348 | Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
20.091 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New York Giants) | Binary |
19.963 | In 2023, will Tether de-peg? | Binary |
19.659 | In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area? | Binary |
19.293 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Indianapolis Colts) | Binary |
19.132 | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023? | Binary |
18.868 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Detroit Lions) | Binary |
18.853 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Arizona Cardinals) | Binary |
18.793 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New England Patriots) | Binary |
18.754 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Likud) | Binary |
18.080 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2023) | Binary |
18.070 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Philadelphia Eagles) | Binary |
17.986 | Will Bitcoin go up over 2023? | Binary |
17.246 | West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Ghana) | Binary |
17.078 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | Binary |
15.993 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (February 11) | Continuous |
15.880 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Los Angeles Chargers) | Binary |
15.147 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Miami Dolphins) | Binary |
15.069 | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023? | Binary |
15.040 | Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022? | Binary |
14.908 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Denver Broncos) | Binary |
14.633 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New Orleans Saints) | Binary |
14.462 | Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023? | Binary |
13.092 | In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit? | Binary |
13.002 | Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024? | Binary |
12.512 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (January 14) | Continuous |
12.475 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Chicago Bears) | Binary |
12.464 | Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023? | Binary |
12.304 | Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023? | Binary |
12.123 | How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000) | Binary |
11.861 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Philadelphia Eagles) | Binary |
11.749 | What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2023) | Continuous |
11.654 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur) | Binary |
11.283 | Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022? | Binary |
10.985 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leeds United) | Continuous |
10.480 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Tennessee Titans) | Binary |
10.472 | Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023? | Binary |
10.072 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Chicago Bears) | Binary |
9.881 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Seattle Seahawks) | Binary |
9.704 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Baltimore Ravens) | Binary |
9.554 | In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines? | Binary |
8.905 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Minnesota Vikings) | Binary |
8.895 | What share of global payments in 2023 will be in Chinese renminbi? | Continuous |
8.852 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Indianapolis Colts) | Binary |
8.752 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leicester City) | Continuous |
8.722 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024? | Binary |
8.580 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (West Ham United) | Continuous |
8.007 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Everton) | Continuous |
7.988 | When will Boris Johnson no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom? | Continuous |
7.781 | Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination? | Binary |
7.746 | Depending on the US giving Ukraine fighter aircraft, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US aircraft) | Binary |
7.601 | By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine? | Binary |
7.599 | If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023? | Binary |
7.413 | Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024? | Binary |
7.336 | Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%? | Binary |
7.282 | Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2) | Binary |
7.282 | Depending on Ukraine re-taking control of Kherson, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukrainian Control) | Binary |
7.281 | Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (ATACMS provided) | Binary |
7.217 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Green Bay Packers) | Binary |
7.101 | Depending on Ukraine striking targets in Russian territory, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukraine strikes) | Binary |
7.101 | Depending on US/NATO conducting military operations in Ukraine, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US/NATO Ops in UA) | Binary |
6.876 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Los Angeles Rams) | Binary |
6.865 | Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023? | Binary |
6.757 | Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024? | Binary |
6.524 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Arizona Cardinals) | Binary |
6.072 | What will be the annual number of objects launched into space in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
5.939 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Aston Villa) | Continuous |
5.839 | Will Chase Bank send a notice to customers about updates to its security protocols, referencing the threat of social engineering attacks that can be attributed to LLMs, before 2024? | Binary |
5.827 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Buffalo Bills) | Binary |
5.814 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton and Hove Albion) | Continuous |
5.657 | Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024? | Binary |
5.587 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Fulham) | Continuous |
5.341 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Crystal Palace) | Continuous |
5.262 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal) | Continuous |
4.905 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United) | Continuous |
4.791 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023? | Binary |
4.684 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Bournemouth) | Continuous |
4.385 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New Orleans Saints) | Binary |
4.282 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United) | Continuous |
4.187 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New York Jets) | Binary |
4.163 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (February 11) | Continuous |
4.051 | What will China's Corruption Perception Index level be in 2023? | Continuous |
3.824 | How many surveillance cameras per 1000 people will the most surveilled city in China have in 2023? | Continuous |
3.685 | Will Peter Daszak be the president of EcoHealth Alliance on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
3.665 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal) | Binary |
3.131 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Atlanta Falcons) | Binary |
2.846 | Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023? | Binary |
2.642 | In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30? | Binary |
2.617 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (San Francisco 49ers) | Binary |
2.581 | If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass? | Binary |
2.558 | Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023? | Binary |
2.524 | In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset? | Binary |
2.457 | Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023? | Binary |
2.432 | Will the Peoples Democratic Party win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential election? | Binary |
2.221 | Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023? | Binary |
2.168 | What will be the price of 1 ETH on the following dates? (December 31, 2023) | Continuous |
1.982 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (January 14) | Continuous |
1.931 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Denver Broncos) | Binary |
1.852 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (January 28) | Continuous |
1.803 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (January 28) | Continuous |
1.720 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (January 28) | Continuous |
1.610 | What will real GDP growth be in the United States in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
1.544 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (January 28) | Continuous |
1.255 | Will the TSA extend or reimpose a mask mandate on public transportation before 2024? | Binary |
1.249 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Miami Dolphins) | Binary |
1.043 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (January 28) | Continuous |
0.816 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Suella Braverman) | Binary |
0.816 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Theresa May) | Binary |
0.812 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Ben Wallace) | Binary |
0.730 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (January 28) | Continuous |
0.712 | What will be the market cap of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023? | Continuous |
0.580 | Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries? | Binary |
0.455 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Jeremy Hunt) | Binary |
0.234 | [All Questions Now Live!] The Forecasting Our World In Data Tournament has launched! How many forecasters will predict on at least half the questions? (2023 questions) | Continuous |
0.191 | What will be the average annual level of PM2.5 in Beijing, China in 2023? | Continuous |
0.032 | Will Philip Davis cease to be Prime Minister of the Bahamas before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.024 | In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high? | Binary |
0.017 | What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022? | Continuous |
0.006 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New England Patriots) | Binary |
- | Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
- | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Baltimore Ravens) | Binary |
- | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Cincinnati Bengals) | Binary |
- | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Chargers) | Binary |
- | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Dallas Cowboys) | Binary |
- | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Minnesota Vikings) | Binary |
- | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | Binary |
- | Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023? | Binary |
- | Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023? | Binary |
- | Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024? | Binary |
- | Will OPEC raise its forecast for 2023 global oil demand in its January 2023 report? | Binary |
- | In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges? | Binary |
- | Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022? | Binary |
- | Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023? | Binary |
-0.119 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brentford) | Continuous |
-0.261 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (January 14) | Continuous |
-1.373 | Will Andrej Babiš win the next Czech Republic presidental election? | Binary |
-2.305 | Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000? | Binary |
-2.851 | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
-4.268 | In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction? | Binary |
-8.958 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Chelsea) | Continuous |
-9.076 | How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000) | Binary |
-9.912 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New York Giants) | Binary |
-15.806 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Kansas City Chiefs) | Binary |
-22.668 | Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023? | Binary |
-23.576 | Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (March 1, 2023) | Binary |
-37.185 | Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023? | Binary |
-42.931 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023? | Binary |
-44.502 | Will Saudi Arabia and Iran restore diplomatic relations by 2024? | Binary |
-58.925 | Will Finland join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
-73.656 | Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023) | Binary |
-80.521 | Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024? | Binary |
-133.128 | How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000) | Binary |
-217.868 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Jacksonville Jaguars) | Binary |