rgal

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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2.673k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
63.720	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
62.552	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
58.441	Will Russia assume the presidency of the UN Security Council on April 1, 2023?	Binary
58.019	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
56.892	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
56.642	Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?	Binary
56.061	Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?	Binary
55.821	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
52.883	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2023?	Binary
52.345	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
51.047	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
50.970	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
50.232	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
49.740	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?	Binary
48.822	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
48.025	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
45.743	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
37.926	Will France send their military to intervene in the Gabonese coup in 2023?	Binary
36.876	Will the US Housing Market crash in 2023?	Binary
36.363	Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023?	Binary
35.640	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
35.427	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
35.416	Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?	Binary
34.031	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
33.989	Will the Palestinian Authority declare itself bankrupt before the end of 2023?	Binary
33.884	Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?	Binary
32.481	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
32.294	Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?	Binary
31.856	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
31.818	Will "All Quiet on the Western Front" win Best Picture - Non-English Language at the 2023 Golden Globe Awards?	Binary
31.769	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
31.603	Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?	Binary
31.476	Will Amritpal Singh be in Indian custody before April 21, 2023?	Binary
31.468	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?	Binary
31.361	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
30.135	Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?	Binary
30.030	Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?	Binary
29.502	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
28.863	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
28.594	In 2023, will a non-European team win the FIFA Club World Cup for the first time since 2012?	Binary
28.510	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?	Binary
27.535	Will OpenAI release a "product" after ChatGPT before 2024?	Binary
27.114	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
27.061	Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?	Binary
26.575	Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29?	Binary
25.907	Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?	Binary
24.885	Will year-on-year core inflation in the United States exceed 6% for the year ending in December 2022?	Binary
24.765	Will Luisa González receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election?	Binary
24.428	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
24.112	Will the Chinese team at the 64th International Math Olympiad be the top ranked team again?	Binary
24.054	Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?	Binary
23.977	Will the OpenAI Tour 2023 plan to visit more than one African destination as of April 10th?	Binary
23.949	[Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023?	Binary
23.209	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
22.778	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
22.437	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
21.913	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
21.817	Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?	Binary
21.775	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?	Binary
21.593	Will a country other than the United States shoot down a high-altitude object before the end of February, 2023?	Binary
21.054	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
20.587	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
20.395	Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class?	Binary
19.585	Will a mandatory evacuation order be issued for any area of Virginia related to any tropical cyclone in 2023?	Binary
19.435	Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?	Binary
19.134	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
19.076	Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?	Binary
18.550	Will either of last year's disc golf champions, Kristin Tattar or Calvin Heimburg, win 1st place in Jonesboro again this year?	Binary
18.139	How many additional H5N1 infections will be reported in wild birds across the United States by the end of March 2023?	Continuous
17.842	Will "Epidemiologists" be included on Virginia's next High Demand Occupation List?	Binary
17.465	Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR COVID-like illness (CLI) visits in Virginia during summer 2023 exceed the same peak during the preceding winter 2022-2023?	Binary
17.461	Will there be more than 10 ministerial resignations in Rishi Sunak’s government before 2024?	Binary
17.275	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
17.121	Will a US spot Ethereum ETF be approved in 2023?	Binary
17.120	Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023?	Binary
17.008	Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season?	Binary
16.947	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
16.861	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
16.364	Will there be more Antarctic sea ice on March 7, 2023 than there was on March 7, 2022?	Binary
16.289	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
15.638	Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?	Binary
15.323	Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting?	Binary
15.100	Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023?	Binary
14.650	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
13.950	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
13.665	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
13.574	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
13.089	Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?	Binary
13.027	Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
12.977	Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024?	Binary
12.778	Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?	Binary
12.733	Will the Chandrayaan-3 lander soft-land on the moon?	Binary
12.460	Will the President of Zimbabwe at the end of 2023 represent the ZANU-PF party?	Binary
12.414	Will GPT-4 exhibit a capability jump for Leetcode questions before 2024?	Binary
12.164	Will top institutions participating in the UK’s global AI Safety Summit make concrete and meaningful commitments to advance AI safety?	Binary
12.071	Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize?	Binary
11.702	Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?	Binary
11.595	Will copper prices reach an all-time-high in 2023?	Binary
11.418	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
10.193	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
10.151	Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?	Binary
9.991	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
9.984	Will the total number of people staying in NYC homeless shelters exceed 100,000 for any day of 2023?	Binary
9.965	How many moves will be played in the first four rounds of the Ding - Nepo FIDE World Chess Championship 2023?	Continuous
9.652	Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate?	Binary
9.396	Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023?	Binary
9.011	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
8.581	Will there no longer be any authorized COVID therapeutic in the U.S. in 2023?	Binary
7.779	Will Victor Wembanyama make the NBA All-Star Game in his rookie season?	Binary
7.414	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
7.410	Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?	Binary
7.204	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
6.600	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
6.332	Will OpenAI release a stateful API to GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
6.206	Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2023?	Binary
6.121	Will the maiden flight of the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 launch successfully and on time?	Binary
6.023	Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?	Binary
5.804	Will Santiago Peña win the Paraguayan presidential election on April 30th?	Binary
5.022	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
4.997	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
4.680	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in January 2023?	Continuous
4.631	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
4.164	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
3.848	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
3.222	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
3.073	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
2.969	What discretionary funding level will President Biden request for NASA in his 2024 budget?	Continuous
2.852	Will the Nigerian Presidential Election on February 25th go to a run-off vote?	Binary
2.476	Will Ecuador's state of emergency be extended beyond the initial 60 days?	Binary
2.474	Will Sweden's Loreen win the Eurovision Song Contest 2023?	Binary
1.956	How many NCAA Division I schools will have both their men’s and women’s basketball teams make the 2023 NCAA Division I Basketball Tournament?	Continuous
1.682	Will the S&P 500 increase or decrease by more than 2% when the Federal Open Market Committee meets on March 21-22, 2023?	Binary
1.644	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
1.366	Will the "Limit, Save, Grow Act" pass the US House of Representatives before May 2023?	Binary
1.346	Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case?	Binary
1.331	Will countries commit at least 100 US/German-made modern main battle tanks to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
0.901	Will USDC restore its peg before May 1, 2023?	Binary
0.865	Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight?	Binary
0.801	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
0.272	Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)?	Binary
-	Will the Israeli High Court uphold the "reasonableness" law?	Binary
-1.140	How many beginners will be in the top 20 of the Point Rankings for Questions Opened in the Last 30 Days on February 28?	Continuous
-1.234	Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
-1.344	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-1.366	Will the March seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States be lower than 3.6%?	Binary
-1.437	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
-2.741	Will large language models become the state of the art for machine translation in 2023?	Binary
-3.441	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
-3.553	Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?	Binary
-5.004	How many ratings will Prince Harry's book Spare have on Amazon on January 20th at 7:00 pm GMT?	Continuous
-6.458	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-8.409	Will the US FDA authorize a new vaccine targeting COVID-19 in 2023?	Binary
-8.843	Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?	Binary
-9.391	Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?	Binary
-9.657	Will New York City break its record by going more than 332 days without measurable snow?	Binary
-9.836	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
-10.024	Will OpenAI reduce the cost of the GPT-4 API by at least 2/3 (<=$0.01/1k prompt tokens for 8k context) before 2024?	Binary
-13.220	Will the author who wins the 2023 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction be a first-time finalist?	Binary
-14.199	Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?	Binary
-14.395	Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship?	Binary
-19.661	Will voting in Twitter polls require verification on April 16, 2023?	Binary
-26.284	Will US sovereign debt be downgraded in 2023?	Binary
-27.469	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-31.605	Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
-31.640	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
-48.249	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary

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Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

rgal

User

rgal