rgal

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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1.809k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
52.875	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
52.101	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
48.680	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
43.103	Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
40.568	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?	Binary
37.638	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
36.398	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023?	Binary
35.826	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
33.707	Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023?	Binary
33.548	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
33.547	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
33.228	Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024?	Binary
32.867	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
32.755	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
32.486	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
32.483	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
32.312	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
31.755	Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?	Binary
31.070	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
30.302	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
29.870	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
28.095	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
26.958	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
26.195	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
25.500	Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024?	Binary
23.760	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
23.278	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
22.816	Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024?	Binary
22.267	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
22.203	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
21.930	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
21.898	Will Tsinghua University bar some students from returning to the dorms for the 2023 Spring Semester?	Binary
21.576	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
21.548	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?	Binary
21.025	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
20.437	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
20.062	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
19.868	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
19.291	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
19.291	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
18.709	Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024?	Binary
18.708	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
18.707	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
18.456	Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?	Binary
18.134	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
18.109	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
17.913	Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?	Binary
17.821	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
17.558	Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024?	Binary
17.516	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
17.332	Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
17.295	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
17.203	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
17.203	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
16.706	How many goals will Erling Haaland score in the Premier League 2022/23 season?	Continuous
15.940	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
15.838	Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024?	Binary
15.683	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
15.477	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
15.295	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
15.245	Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
14.774	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
14.576	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
14.573	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
14.390	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
13.996	What percentage of people in low-income countries will have recieved at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
13.919	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
13.902	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
13.738	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
13.644	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
13.474	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination?	Binary
13.065	Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?	Binary
12.818	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
12.568	What price will Coinbase quote for FTX's FTT token on February 1, 2023?	Continuous
12.517	Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024?	Binary
12.305	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
11.999	How much oil will Venezuela produce in 2022?	Continuous
11.711	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
11.653	Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023?	Binary
11.303	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
11.303	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
11.210	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
11.029	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
10.944	Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023?	Binary
10.506	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
10.146	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
9.923	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
9.112	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
7.674	Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023?	Binary
7.270	Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?	Binary
7.018	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
6.921	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
6.759	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
6.686	Will Peter Daszak be the president of EcoHealth Alliance on January 1, 2024?	Binary
6.525	Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?	Binary
5.909	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to adenovirus infection?	Binary
5.626	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
5.549	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
5.225	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
4.906	Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
4.598	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
4.462	Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?	Binary
3.560	Will Andrej Babiš win the next Czech Republic presidental election?	Binary
3.193	Will Philip Davis cease to be Prime Minister of the Bahamas before January 1, 2024?	Binary
3.016	Will the Peoples Democratic Party win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential election?	Binary
2.781	How many politically motivated criminal offenses will be reported in Germany for 2022?	Continuous
2.718	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
1.376	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
1.231	Will the city of Redondo Beach, CA pass a ballot initiative to adopt STAR voting in March 2023?	Binary
1.210	Will there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022?	Binary
1.096	Will OPEC raise its forecast for 2023 global oil demand in its January 2023 report?	Binary
0.563	Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.081	How many FAO domestic food price warnings in spring 2023?	Continuous
-1.421	In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?	Binary
-2.103	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
-2.329	Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?	Binary
-3.466	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
-4.588	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
-5.286	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
-5.415	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
-5.711	Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
-8.353	Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?	Binary
-9.175	What will the Rotten Tomatoes audience score of the upcoming Super Mario movie be?	Continuous
-9.885	Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024?	Binary
-14.108	Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023?	Binary
-30.922	Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023?	Binary
-38.835	Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?	Binary
-46.041	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary