151.413 | What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2022) | Continuous |
131.747 | What will be the maximum price reached for Ethereum by January 1, 2023? | Continuous |
97.910 | Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023? | Binary |
97.522 | Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023? | Binary |
97.520 | Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023? | Binary |
96.076 | Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022? | Binary |
92.651 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Morocco) | Binary |
90.575 | By February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope successfully see First Light? | Binary |
89.423 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Switzerland) | Binary |
89.318 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Croatia) | Binary |
89.031 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (South Korea) | Binary |
88.913 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Japan) | Binary |
88.552 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Senegal) | Binary |
88.058 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Portugal) | Binary |
87.955 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Australia) | Binary |
87.936 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (United States of America) | Binary |
87.652 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Cameroon) | Binary |
87.569 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Serbia) | Binary |
87.215 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Poland) | Binary |
87.178 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Costa Rica) | Binary |
86.815 | Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022? | Binary |
86.629 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
86.628 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Tunisia) | Binary |
86.331 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Ghana) | Binary |
86.278 | Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022? | Binary |
86.251 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Iran) | Binary |
86.193 | [Short fuse]: Will Russia assume responsibility and apologize for the Przewodów strike before December? | Binary |
86.010 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Wales) | Binary |
85.274 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Canada) | Binary |
85.023 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay) | Binary |
84.990 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Ecuador) | Binary |
84.291 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Qatar) | Binary |
84.092 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Denmark) | Binary |
84.047 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Mexico) | Binary |
82.711 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Netherlands) | Binary |
82.479 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Ben Wallace) | Binary |
82.479 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Nadhim Zahawi) | Binary |
82.479 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Steve Baker) | Binary |
82.479 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Dominic Raab) | Binary |
82.479 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Suella Braverman) | Binary |
82.479 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Grant Shapps) | Binary |
82.479 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Sajid Javid) | Binary |
82.248 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Kemi Badenoch) | Binary |
81.971 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Belgium) | Binary |
80.001 | Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
77.918 | Will Tether collapse before 2023? | Binary |
77.847 | Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022? | Binary |
76.345 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Germany) | Binary |
75.820 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (England) | Binary |
75.080 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Spain) | Binary |
74.628 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023? | Binary |
74.070 | Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023? | Binary |
72.218 | Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
71.768 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023? | Binary |
71.592 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (France) | Binary |
69.579 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Brazil) | Binary |
68.396 | What percentage of monkeypox cases in California will be among cisgender men who are gay/same-gender loving or bisexual? | Continuous |
68.175 | Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023? | Binary |
66.173 | Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Carlos Sainz) | Binary |
66.173 | Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (George Russell) | Binary |
65.783 | Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Lewis Hamilton) | Binary |
65.315 | Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022? | Binary |
65.159 | Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Sergio Perez) | Binary |
61.505 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Michael Gove) | Binary |
61.505 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Jeremy Hunt) | Binary |
61.505 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Priti Patel) | Binary |
61.505 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Boris Johnson) | Binary |
61.390 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Tom Tugendhat) | Binary |
60.867 | Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023? | Binary |
60.201 | Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023? | Binary |
60.124 | Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov) | Binary |
59.001 | What will be the total number of reported monkeypox cases in California as of December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
58.421 | Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023? | Binary |
56.885 | Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Max Verstappen) | Binary |
56.569 | Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Charles Leclerc) | Binary |
56.263 | Will Xi Jinping be re-elected paramount leader in 2022? | Binary |
56.087 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Penny Mordaunt) | Binary |
55.493 | How many countries will confirm at least one case of monkeypox by July 31, 2022? | Continuous |
54.872 | Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023? | Binary |
53.388 | Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Ian Nepomniachtchi) | Binary |
52.164 | Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022? | Binary |
51.917 | What will be the market capitalization of Netflix on December 1, 2022? | Continuous |
51.612 | Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Matthias Blübaum) | Binary |
50.713 | Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Hjörvar Steinn Grétarsson) | Binary |
50.713 | Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Vladimir Fedoseev) | Binary |
50.132 | Will the DART asteroid mission successfully impact in 2022? | Binary |
48.917 | Will a cyber action or series of cyber actions trigger NATO’s Article 5 in 2022? | Binary |
43.723 | What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Europe as of July 1, 2022? | Continuous |
41.949 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Rishi Sunak) | Binary |
39.089 | Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Wesley So) | Binary |
38.027 | Will the British pound trade below $1 before 2023? | Binary |
36.911 | Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
35.891 | Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022? | Binary |
33.315 | Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Magnus Carlsen) | Binary |
32.606 | Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Liz Truss) | Binary |
32.059 | Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022? | Binary |
31.886 | What percentage "yes" will Elon Musk's Twitter poll have for reinstating Trump? | Continuous |
29.068 | Will any of the ongoing BioNTech mRNA cancer vaccine trials proceed to Phase III trials in 2022? | Binary |
28.203 | What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
25.563 | Before 2023, will the US CDC recommend the general use of the monkeypox vaccine for all men who have sex with men in the US? | Binary |
25.342 | What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (November 1, 2022) | Continuous |
24.726 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Philadelphia Phillies) | Binary |
24.521 | Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection in 2022? | Binary |
22.352 | Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022? | Binary |
21.148 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (San Diego Padres) | Binary |
20.477 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Cleveland Guardians) | Binary |
19.808 | Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022? | Binary |
18.583 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Seattle Mariners) | Binary |
16.902 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Atlanta Braves) | Binary |
16.433 | Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022? | Binary |
16.062 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (New York Yankees) | Binary |
15.851 | Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023? | Binary |
15.341 | Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023? | Binary |
15.303 | Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022? | Binary |
15.291 | Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023? | Binary |
14.962 | Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022? | Binary |
14.724 | [short-fuse] Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics? | Binary |
14.408 | How many people in Russia will be arrested for participating in anti-war protests before 2023? | Continuous |
14.264 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Tampa Bay Rays) | Binary |
14.077 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (St. Louis Cardinals) | Binary |
13.951 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Toronto Blue Jays) | Binary |
12.959 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (New York Mets) | Binary |
11.944 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Texas Rangers) | Binary |
11.943 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Oakland Athletics) | Binary |
11.943 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Los Angeles Angels) | Binary |
11.942 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Kansas City Royals) | Binary |
11.942 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Detroit Tigers) | Binary |
11.941 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Boston Red Sox) | Binary |
11.941 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Baltimore Orioles) | Binary |
11.940 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (San Francisco Giants) | Binary |
11.940 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Colorado Rockies) | Binary |
11.940 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Arizona Diamondbacks) | Binary |
11.940 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Pittsburgh Pirates) | Binary |
11.939 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Cincinnati Reds) | Binary |
11.939 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Chicago Cubs) | Binary |
11.938 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Washington Nationals) | Binary |
11.938 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Miami Marlins) | Binary |
11.765 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Minnesota Twins) | Binary |
11.764 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Chicago White Sox) | Binary |
11.762 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Milwaukee Brewers) | Binary |
10.784 | In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults answered “Yes” to the statement, “Do you think it could ever be possible for robots/AIs to be sentient?” | Continuous |
10.748 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Los Angeles Dodgers) | Binary |
8.557 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022? | Binary |
7.869 | Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022? | Binary |
7.510 | [Short Fuse] What percentage "yes" will Elon Musk's Twitter poll have for stepping down as head of Twitter? | Continuous |
5.814 | Keynesian Groupy Contest: interquartile range (KBCs are the best) | Binary |
5.671 | What will total NATO defense spending be in 2022? | Continuous |
5.649 | What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in December 2022? | Continuous |
5.086 | Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022? | Binary |
3.690 | Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022? | Binary |
2.636 | Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
2.259 | Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
2.258 | Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
1.368 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy's image appear on the cover of Time's 2022 Person of the Year issue, more prominently than any other person's image? | Binary |
0.209 | Will Liverpool win the 2021-2022 Premier League? | Binary |
0.043 | By December 31, 2022, will Twitter agree to be taken private by Elon Musk? | Binary |
-2.226 | Keynesian Groupy Contest: interquartile range (KBCs are the best) | Binary |
-2.381 | Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023? | Binary |
-8.271 | Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022? | Binary |
-8.408 | Will the study “Knowledge about others reduces one’s own sense of anonymity” (Nature, 2022) replicate? | Binary |
-9.314 | What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (January 1, 2023) | Continuous |
-12.452 | Will Wales score a goal against England on Tuesday? | Binary |
-18.673 | Will the Metaculus question about Russian troops in Kyiv in 2022 resolve ambiguously? | Binary |
-31.171 | Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Houston Astros) | Binary |
-58.285 | Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
-164.261 | Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Hikaru Nakamura) | Binary |
-242.084 | Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Argentina) | Binary |