borshigida

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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4.538k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
96.599	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
94.708	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
93.891	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
92.233	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
86.685	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
83.717	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
83.652	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
83.348	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
80.645	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
79.569	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
78.224	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
76.624	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
74.847	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
74.103	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
74.029	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
73.162	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
67.071	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
62.097	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
62.006	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
61.910	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023?	Binary
61.266	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
60.850	When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts?	Continuous
57.952	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
57.058	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
56.464	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
56.337	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
56.337	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
56.053	Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula?	Continuous
54.033	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
53.894	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
52.834	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
52.706	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
51.149	Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024?	Binary
50.922	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
50.704	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
49.932	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
49.855	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
49.600	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
49.485	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
49.448	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
49.145	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
49.006	Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024?	Binary
48.920	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
48.418	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
47.895	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
47.889	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
47.675	Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024?	Binary
47.243	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
47.139	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
46.422	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
46.398	Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024?	Binary
46.330	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
46.250	Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024?	Binary
46.136	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
45.050	Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024?	Binary
44.656	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
44.515	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
44.470	Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
43.508	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
42.717	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
40.369	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
39.313	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
38.176	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
37.419	Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024?	Binary
35.334	Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023?	Binary
34.977	Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?	Binary
33.719	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (March 1, 2023)	Binary
33.560	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
33.560	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
31.501	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
31.215	Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024?	Binary
31.202	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
31.179	Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024?	Binary
30.996	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
30.983	Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
30.858	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
30.829	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
29.990	Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
29.048	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
28.425	Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?	Binary
28.064	Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
27.959	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023)	Binary
27.233	Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024?	Binary
26.887	Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024?	Binary
26.390	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
26.073	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
25.906	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
25.369	When will US or NATO forces conduct military operations in Ukraine or Ukraine's occupied regions?	Continuous
25.027	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?	Binary
24.323	Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024?	Binary
23.992	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
21.701	Will the TSA extend or reimpose a mask mandate on public transportation before 2024?	Binary
21.216	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
20.133	If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass?	Binary
20.019	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
18.773	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?	Binary
17.520	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
15.077	Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?	Binary
15.044	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
14.318	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
13.966	Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023?	Binary
13.092	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
12.929	Will Philip Davis cease to be Prime Minister of the Bahamas before January 1, 2024?	Binary
11.154	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
10.900	Will Peter Daszak be the president of EcoHealth Alliance on January 1, 2024?	Binary
10.572	Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023?	Binary
9.235	Will Tsinghua University bar some students from returning to the dorms for the 2023 Spring Semester?	Binary
8.333	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
8.246	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
7.645	When will GPT-4 be announced?	Continuous
7.327	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
7.130	Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?	Binary
7.055	Will Chase Bank send a notice to customers about updates to its security protocols, referencing the threat of social engineering attacks that can be attributed to LLMs, before 2024?	Binary
6.945	Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?	Binary
6.704	Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
6.356	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (David Sacks)	Binary
6.356	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jason Calacanis)	Binary
6.356	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sriram Krishnan)	Binary
6.356	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sheryl Sandberg)	Binary
6.356	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jared Kushner)	Binary
6.356	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (John Legere)	Binary
6.356	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Lex Fridman)	Binary
6.356	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Blake Masters)	Binary
6.356	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Mike Schroepfer)	Binary
6.356	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Peter Thiel)	Binary
6.356	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Steve Davis)	Binary
6.170	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Elon Musk)	Binary
5.045	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
4.741	In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?	Binary
4.363	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?	Binary
3.818	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
3.079	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
2.783	Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023?	Binary
2.732	By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt?	Binary
2.313	Will Andrej Babiš win the next Czech Republic presidental election?	Binary
0.832	Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?	Binary
0.121	Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?	Binary
-	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
-0.504	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
-4.081	Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?	Binary
-4.088	Will Saudi Arabia and Iran restore diplomatic relations by 2024?	Binary
-11.504	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
-13.484	Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
-13.557	Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023?	Binary
-14.789	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
-20.929	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
-21.285	Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023?	Binary
-61.547	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
-62.400	In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?	Binary
-81.355	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-98.767	Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?	Binary