borshigida

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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5.272k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
99.584	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024?	Binary
98.971	Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?	Binary
95.586	Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?	Binary
95.543	Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025?	Binary
92.606	Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024?	Binary
91.261	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?	Binary
90.471	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024?	Binary
90.294	Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?	Binary
88.666	Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
88.613	Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025?	Binary
87.882	Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?	Binary
87.278	Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?	Binary
84.697	Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election?	Binary
84.289	Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025?	Binary
82.607	Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025?	Binary
82.604	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
80.915	Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont?	Binary
79.685	Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025?	Binary
78.809	On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election?	Binary
77.542	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
77.542	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
77.542	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
77.542	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
77.542	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
76.390	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
76.378	Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025?	Binary
74.995	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
74.813	Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025?	Binary
72.737	Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?	Binary
68.114	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott)	Binary
68.114	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
68.114	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein)	Binary
68.114	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West)	Binary
68.114	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver)	Binary
68.046	Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election?	Binary
67.402	Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025?	Binary
67.237	Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?	Binary
66.864	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?	Binary
66.790	Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?	Binary
66.244	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025)	Binary
64.650	Will India conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 Indian general elections?	Binary
64.430	Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?	Binary
64.070	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
64.060	Will Tether collapse before 2025?	Binary
61.832	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
61.761	Will Meta's Horizon Worlds report more than 500,000 active users for any month of 2023?	Binary
58.800	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
57.344	Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024?	Binary
57.069	Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?	Binary
56.494	Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?	Binary
56.399	Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
56.218	Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
55.727	Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025?	Binary
54.241	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
53.694	Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025?	Binary
51.656	Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024?	Binary
51.407	Will average NAEP reading and math scores across 4th and 8th grades decline in 2024 compared to 2022?	Binary
49.111	Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?	Binary
49.049	Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025?	Binary
48.141	Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?	Binary
47.976	Will Libya hold a presidential election before 2025?	Binary
46.196	Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025?	Binary
45.340	Will an act such as the JCPA significantly strengthen US news companies' bargaining position before 2025?	Binary
44.817	Will Spain announce a snap general election before March 2024?	Binary
44.642	Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024?	Binary
44.539	Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025?	Binary
43.946	When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.?	Continuous
42.528	Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?	Binary
41.968	Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?	Binary
41.501	Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025?	Binary
41.428	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
40.736	Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025?	Binary
40.390	Will the UK and India have signed an FTA before the next UK General Election?	Binary
40.108	Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023?	Binary
39.507	Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025?	Binary
38.039	Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025?	Binary
37.383	Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)?	Binary
36.904	Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025?	Binary
36.337	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
33.237	In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?	Binary
33.068	Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?	Binary
32.966	In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state?	Binary
32.849	Will Oil Exports account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024?	Binary
32.778	Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?	Binary
32.518	Will the EPA grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025?	Binary
31.068	Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025?	Binary
29.780	Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?	Binary
29.134	Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025?	Binary
27.892	Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?	Binary
27.517	Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?	Binary
27.114	Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?	Binary
27.051	Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?	Binary
26.807	Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models?	Binary
26.628	Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?	Binary
26.255	Will any state hold a caucus instead of a primary for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2024?	Binary
26.211	Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?	Binary
26.002	Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025?	Binary
25.990	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?	Binary
25.841	Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?	Binary
24.273	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
24.128	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
23.835	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
23.245	Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?	Binary
23.004	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
22.792	In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?	Binary
22.169	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?	Binary
21.807	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
21.370	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
21.161	Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?	Binary
20.835	Will Elon Musk face US federal criminal charges or an SEC civil complaint before 2026?	Binary
17.160	Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?	Binary
17.012	Will Sadiq Khan win re-election in the 2024 London Mayoral Elections?	Binary
17.008	Will the Sacramento Kings advance to the second round of the NBA playoffs in 2024?	Binary
16.198	If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025?	Binary
15.941	Will Ursula von der Leyen be re-appointed as President of the European Commission following the 2024 European elections?	Binary
14.579	Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan?	Binary
12.893	Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?	Binary
12.436	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
12.091	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
11.857	Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023?	Binary
11.606	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
11.606	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
11.581	By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
11.573	Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?	Binary
11.421	By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
11.301	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
10.972	Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?	Binary
10.799	By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?	Binary
10.512	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
10.488	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
10.461	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
10.426	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
10.290	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
10.236	By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
10.157	Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?	Binary
10.120	Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
10.113	Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?	Binary
10.083	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023)	Binary
10.076	Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026?	Binary
10.023	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
9.759	Will Threads support ActivityPub before 2025?	Binary
9.501	By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
9.499	Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024?	Binary
9.455	Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA before 2025?	Binary
9.238	By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
9.230	Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?	Binary
8.227	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
8.077	Will Sweden join NATO before 2025?	Binary
8.066	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
8.066	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
7.956	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
7.708	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
7.415	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
6.902	Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
6.807	Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?	Binary
6.781	Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024?	Binary
6.520	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
6.182	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
5.711	Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?	Binary
5.501	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
5.419	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
5.122	Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026?	Binary
4.919	Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?	Binary
4.629	Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?	Binary
4.597	Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025?	Binary
4.114	Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026?	Binary
3.424	Will the Council of the European Union adopt the proposed expansion to climate-focused export credits before 2025?	Binary
3.068	Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?	Binary
2.749	How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022?	Continuous
2.707	Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?	Binary
2.312	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
2.211	Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025?	Binary
2.194	Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?	Binary
1.798	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?	Binary
1.526	Will Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024?	Binary
1.022	Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?	Binary
0.892	Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
0.627	Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026?	Binary
0.506	Will India sign the Artemis Accords before 2025?	Binary
0.245	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
-	Will the ANC receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election?	Binary
-	Will Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili experience a significant leadership disruption before the next scheduled election?	Binary
-3.901	Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?	Binary
-5.496	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
-9.703	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-12.831	Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025?	Binary
-15.294	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
-17.594	Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025?	Binary
-17.691	Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?	Binary
-18.416	Will the US require and verify reporting of large AI training runs before 2026?	Binary
-18.959	Will Johnathan Davis be re-elected at the 2024 ACT election?	Binary
-19.579	Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before 2025?	Binary
-25.927	Will at least 3 months of third party safety evaluations be conducted on Gemini before its deployment?	Binary
-28.688	Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?	Binary
-35.876	Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025?	Binary
-43.195	Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates?	Binary
-52.594	Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
-57.303	Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025?	Binary
-93.742	Will the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act (DCCPA) be passed before 2025?	Binary
-96.176	In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received?	Binary
-119.073	Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?	Binary
-125.477	Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024?	Binary
-209.799	Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics?	Binary
-218.273	Will the right-wing incumbent BJP win the 2024 national election in India?	Binary