norick

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

12.97k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
145.908	What will be the official death count for the 2023 Hawai'i wildfires as of January 1, 2024?	Continuous
115.600	How many countries will have approved the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
114.159	How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
99.012	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
98.852	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
98.418	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa)	Binary
98.376	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Christian Zurita)	Binary
98.250	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba)	Binary
98.208	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Xavier Hervas)	Binary
98.208	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Bolívar Armijos)	Binary
97.239	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Otto Sonnenholzner)	Binary
96.918	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Yaku Pérez Guartambel)	Binary
96.250	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
96.065	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
95.530	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Jan Topić)	Binary
95.308	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
95.090	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)	Binary
95.078	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
94.609	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Rescued or escaped)	Continuous
94.120	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
93.706	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
93.081	Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
92.678	Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?	Binary
92.110	Will there no longer be any authorized COVID therapeutic in the U.S. in 2023?	Binary
91.477	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
91.112	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
90.717	Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?	Binary
89.588	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
88.088	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
87.991	Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
87.911	How much money (in US dollars) will GlobalGiving's Morocco Earthquake Relief Fund have raised on September 21, 2023?	Continuous
87.660	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?	Binary
87.338	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
86.926	Will NASA re-establish communications with Voyager 1 before 1 Jan 2024?	Binary
86.822	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Mark Zuckerberg)	Binary
86.669	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
86.058	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (New Left)	Binary
86.057	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Polish Coalition)	Binary
86.057	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Kukiz'15)	Binary
86.057	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Democratic Left)	Binary
86.057	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Agreement)	Binary
86.057	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Poland 2050)	Binary
86.057	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Confederation)	Binary
85.897	Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?	Binary
85.709	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
85.583	Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?	Binary
84.858	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
84.853	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
84.847	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
84.721	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
83.889	Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?	Binary
83.788	How many mpox cases will Virginia report in the second quarter of 2023?	Continuous
83.261	Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?	Binary
83.168	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)	Binary
83.168	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)	Binary
83.168	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
83.168	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
83.168	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)	Binary
83.168	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)	Binary
83.168	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
83.167	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)	Binary
83.167	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)	Binary
83.167	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
83.167	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)	Binary
82.892	What percentage of Virginia adults will be vaccinated against influenza by the week ending December 30, 2023?	Continuous
82.843	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sam Altman)	Binary
82.772	US Government Shutdown Before 2024? (No) → Johnson Speaker until 2024?	Binary
82.743	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
82.489	Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?	Binary
82.423	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)	Binary
82.082	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
82.081	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
81.391	Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29?	Binary
81.331	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Demis Hassabis)	Binary
81.324	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
80.961	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
80.960	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
80.923	When will New York City’s period of consecutive rainy weekends end?	Continuous
80.895	Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?	Binary
80.384	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
78.900	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
78.716	What will the Geopolitical Risk index be for 2023?	Continuous
78.600	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
77.611	When will the next volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland begin?	Continuous
76.774	What will be the size of the 2024 EU Budget?	Continuous
76.586	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
76.583	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2024)	Binary
76.453	What will be the value of bilateral US-Taiwan trade in 2023?	Continuous
76.024	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
75.781	What will the annual real GDP growth rate be in the eurozone in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
75.314	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
74.131	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sundar Pichai)	Binary
73.966	Will Luisa González receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election?	Binary
72.551	Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023?	Binary
72.017	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
71.170	Will a mandatory evacuation order be issued for any area of Virginia related to any tropical cyclone in 2023?	Binary
70.953	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
70.258	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
70.118	Will a majority of voters approve Venezuela's referendum on incorporating Guayana Esequiba into Venezuela?	Binary
69.929	Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?	Binary
68.455	Will the US Housing Market crash in 2023?	Binary
65.412	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Juan Schiaretti)	Binary
65.412	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Myriam Bregman)	Binary
64.695	Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22?	Binary
64.535	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
64.168	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (All Other Teams Not Listed)	Binary
63.955	Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?	Binary
63.468	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Dario Amodei)	Binary
61.587	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
61.351	ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023? (No) → Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023?	Binary
61.338	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
61.189	Will the ban on imports of Apple watches with blood oxygen sensors take effect before December 27, 2023?	Binary
59.886	Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?	Binary
59.787	Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?	Binary
59.053	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
58.644	Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?	Binary
57.406	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
57.373	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?	Binary
57.142	How many days will the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in 2023?	Continuous
56.734	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
56.590	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Patricia Bullrich)	Binary
54.883	Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023?	Binary
54.876	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
54.734	When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water?	Continuous
54.453	Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?	Binary
54.280	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
53.611	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
53.073	How many FDIC banks will fail in 2023?	Continuous
52.822	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
52.196	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
51.895	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (August 19)	Continuous
51.861	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
51.638	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
51.619	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
51.234	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
51.205	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
50.655	Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?	Binary
49.895	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
49.731	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
49.730	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
49.710	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
49.557	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Nancy Mace (R))	Binary
49.380	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
49.380	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
49.192	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
49.136	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
48.876	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
48.411	Will the Israeli High Court uphold the "reasonableness" law?	Binary
48.074	What percentage of the vote will Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Presidential Elections’ runoff?	Continuous
47.477	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?	Continuous
47.401	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
46.994	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
46.760	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2023?	Binary
46.634	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
46.466	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
46.083	Will a country other than the United States shoot down a high-altitude object before the end of February, 2023?	Binary
45.944	Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023?	Binary
45.814	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Sergio Massa)	Binary
44.968	What rating will Bethesda's video game Starfield have on Steam two weeks after release?	Continuous
43.907	How many new businesses will be formed in the US in 2023?	Continuous
42.948	Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize?	Binary
42.656	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Emmer (R))	Binary
42.640	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
42.495	Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?	Binary
40.544	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (September 2)	Continuous
40.202	Wagner Group Controls Moscow by July 1, 2023? (No) → Ukraine Controls DNR/LNR on Jan 1, 2024	Binary
40.044	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
40.032	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
39.900	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
39.890	Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?	Binary
39.086	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
39.072	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)	Binary
38.939	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
38.917	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
38.775	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Released by captor)	Continuous
38.443	Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class?	Binary
38.309	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
38.208	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Podemos)	Binary
37.766	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
37.384	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
37.212	Will the statutory debt limit be increased or suspended for at least 30 days in the United States before 2024?	Binary
37.067	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Vox)	Binary
36.969	Will there be more than 10 ministerial resignations in Rishi Sunak’s government before 2024?	Binary
36.922	Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?	Binary
36.806	Will a US spot Ethereum ETF be approved in 2023?	Binary
36.101	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
35.134	What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023?	Continuous
34.642	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
34.493	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
34.472	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
34.165	Trump participates in first debate? (No) → Trump Polling Change Two Weeks After Debate?	Continuous
33.966	How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy?	Continuous
33.053	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Law and Justice (PiS))	Binary
33.053	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Civic Platform)	Binary
32.863	Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?	Binary
31.837	What will the price of November 2023 Dutch TTF natural gas futures (in Euros per megawatt-hour) be on September 29, 2023?	Continuous
31.628	What will be the average partisan vote swing from 2020 to 2023 in state-level special elections held in the US before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
30.645	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
30.304	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Lakers)	Binary
28.982	What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) on December 30, 2023?	Continuous
28.743	Will the Chandrayaan-3 lander soft-land on the moon?	Binary
28.425	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
27.997	How many U.S. jurisdictions will experience "high" or "very high" influenza activity for the week ending January 21, 2023?	Continuous
27.993	Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?	Binary
25.982	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Cole (R))	Binary
24.308	What will be the worldwide 7-day rolling average of confirmed mpox cases for June 30, 2023?	Continuous
24.062	Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting?	Binary
23.717	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
23.647	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
22.196	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
22.088	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Boston Celtics)	Binary
22.011	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
21.901	In 2023, will a non-European team win the FIFA Club World Cup for the first time since 2012?	Binary
21.019	Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023?	Binary
20.897	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
20.787	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
20.731	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (New York Knicks)	Binary
19.783	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
18.934	Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?	Binary
18.852	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
18.423	Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?	Binary
17.930	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
17.486	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
17.465	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Brian Fitzpatrick (R))	Binary
17.299	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Philadelphia 76ers)	Binary
17.266	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Austin Scott (R))	Binary
17.079	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Golden State Warriors)	Binary
16.726	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
16.321	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
15.732	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Lee Zeldin (R))	Binary
15.633	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Phoenix Suns)	Binary
15.432	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Adam Schiff (D))	Binary
15.366	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Katie Porter (D))	Binary
15.333	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Hunter Biden (D))	Binary
15.306	Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?	Binary
15.221	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Barbara Lee (D))	Binary
15.059	When will the successor to Kevin McCarthy be elected as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives?	Continuous
14.611	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Former Senator Barbara Boxer (D))	Binary
14.431	What will NVIDIA's market cap be at the end of 2023?	Continuous
13.828	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
13.772	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Holly Mitchell (D))	Binary
13.249	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D))	Binary
12.101	Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?	Binary
11.946	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
11.176	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Maxine Waters (D))	Binary
11.095	What percentage of the possession will the winning team have in the Women's World Cup Final?	Continuous
10.888	Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023?	Binary
10.822	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
10.614	How many new forecasters will be in the top 20 of the Beginner Tournament at the end of the tournament?	Continuous
10.148	Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
10.048	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary
9.897	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Mayor Karen Bass (D))	Binary
9.864	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Sec. of State Shirley Weber (D))	Binary
9.624	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
9.618	Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?	Binary
8.933	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
8.863	What will the most expensive AI training run be in the following years, in millions of USD? (2023)	Continuous
8.685	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
8.660	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Lateefah Simon (D))	Binary
8.529	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Mayor London Breed (D))	Binary
8.404	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Vegas Golden Knights)	Binary
8.404	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Florida Panthers)	Binary
8.384	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Malia Cohen (D))	Binary
8.346	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
8.089	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Justice Leondra Kruger (D))	Binary
8.084	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
7.757	Will ChatGPT have multiple tiers of capability before 2024?	Binary
7.504	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Angela Glover Blackwell (D))	Binary
7.171	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?	Binary
6.917	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?	Binary
5.650	Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?	Binary
5.507	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023)	Binary
5.331	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (People's Party (PP))	Binary
5.331	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (PSOE)	Binary
4.950	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
4.615	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Sacramento Kings)	Binary
3.618	Will countries commit at least 100 US/German-made modern main battle tanks to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
3.539	Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)?	Binary
3.188	Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season?	Binary
2.190	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
2.128	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Memphis Grizzlies)	Binary
1.228	Will USDC restore its peg before May 1, 2023?	Binary
1.129	Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?	Binary
1.078	Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?	Binary
0.549	Will the suspected Chinese surveillance balloon be on the ground before February 11th, 2023?	Binary
0.001	Will Silicon Valley Bank file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.192	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-3.854	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
-4.071	Will any additional Republican candidates for president drop out before 2024?	Binary
-5.424	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Daniel Noboa Azín)	Binary
-5.766	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
-6.217	What percentage of the vote will presidential candidate candidate Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Open Primaries Elections?	Continuous
-10.330	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Luisa González)	Binary
-14.356	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?	Binary
-17.614	Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?	Binary
-18.937	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-22.706	Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?	Binary
-22.812	Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?	Binary
-23.070	Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended?	Binary
-25.440	Will New York City break its record by going more than 332 days without measurable snow?	Binary
-29.878	Will the Conservatives hold on to their seat in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election?	Binary
-33.179	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
-33.394	Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?	Binary
-33.539	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Laphonza Butler (D))	Binary
-40.101	Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
-40.293	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
-44.808	Erdoğan wins 2023 Turkish Presidential Election? (Yes) → Swedish NATO Membership by 2024?	Binary
-45.655	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-50.770	How many beginners will be in the top 20 of the Point Rankings for Questions Opened in the Last 30 Days on February 28?	Continuous
-51.273	Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-63.333	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
-64.196	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Mike Johnson (R))	Binary
-70.494	Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?	Binary
-76.259	What will be the effective number of political parties in the Netherlands parliament following the 2023 election?	Continuous
-77.038	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
-84.495	Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
-94.279	Russian Coup or Regime Change before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
-95.970	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Denver Nuggets)	Binary
-132.310	Will the MONUSCO UN peacekeeping mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo be extended with a military personnel ceiling above 11,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-137.608	Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?	Binary

MetaculusM

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

norick

User

norick