norick

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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5.335k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
123.969	How many estimated cases of Marburg virus (MARV) will occur globally in 2022?	Continuous
98.436	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
97.509	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
97.383	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
94.610	Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024?	Binary
94.330	Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024?	Binary
94.228	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
94.053	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
92.136	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
90.403	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
88.308	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
87.046	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
86.952	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
85.715	Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?	Binary
85.691	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
84.585	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination?	Binary
83.643	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
77.028	Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula?	Continuous
76.966	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
76.000	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sheryl Sandberg)	Binary
76.000	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jared Kushner)	Binary
75.999	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (John Legere)	Binary
75.999	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Peter Thiel)	Binary
75.999	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Mike Schroepfer)	Binary
75.998	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Steve Davis)	Binary
75.696	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
75.460	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Lex Fridman)	Binary
75.460	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Blake Masters)	Binary
75.241	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
74.170	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (David Sacks)	Binary
74.030	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
72.677	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jason Calacanis)	Binary
72.648	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023?	Binary
71.356	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
70.194	What will be the UK's annual inflation rate in the following years? (2022)	Continuous
69.679	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sriram Krishnan)	Binary
69.655	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
69.269	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
68.341	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
67.637	Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?	Binary
67.339	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
66.148	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
65.492	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
64.613	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
62.008	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
61.034	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
60.116	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
59.596	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
59.397	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?	Binary
58.503	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
58.241	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
58.226	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
57.850	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
57.617	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
57.562	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
55.998	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
54.953	Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta?	Binary
53.369	Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?	Binary
51.725	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Elon Musk)	Binary
51.468	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
51.128	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
49.989	Will Andrej Babiš win the next Czech Republic presidental election?	Binary
49.875	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
48.479	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
45.830	Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
44.342	How many satellites will be deployed in 2022?	Continuous
43.647	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
43.586	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
43.053	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
42.972	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
42.048	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
41.750	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
41.681	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
40.722	Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024?	Binary
40.164	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
39.677	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
39.517	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
39.324	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
38.696	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
37.678	How many North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
31.634	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
31.442	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
31.383	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
30.228	Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?	Binary
29.723	Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023?	Binary
28.812	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
28.651	Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023?	Binary
28.462	Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2)	Binary
28.110	How many of the companies in China's 'AI Quartet' (not counting SenseTime) will be public before 2024?	Continuous
27.576	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
26.933	When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts?	Continuous
26.484	How many parameters will the latest version of the Chinese Wu Dao AI model have before 2024?	Continuous
25.928	How many surveillance cameras per 1000 people will the most surveilled city in China have in 2023?	Continuous
25.411	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
25.233	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
23.361	Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?	Binary
22.867	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
22.792	Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024?	Binary
22.725	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
22.452	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
21.195	In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?	Binary
20.873	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
20.054	What will be the market cap of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023?	Continuous
18.928	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
18.505	Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024?	Binary
18.453	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
18.222	Will the TSA extend or reimpose a mask mandate on public transportation before 2024?	Binary
18.088	Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
18.059	Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
17.587	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
17.309	In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?	Binary
17.284	Will there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022?	Binary
16.883	Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024?	Binary
16.615	What will China's Corruption Perception Index level be in 2023?	Continuous
15.925	Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024?	Binary
15.755	Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024?	Binary
15.476	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
14.054	Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
13.135	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
12.530	When will Boris Johnson no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
12.277	What share of global payments in 2023 will be in Chinese renminbi?	Continuous
12.134	How many entities will be allowed to use blockchain applications in China by 2024?	Continuous
11.889	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
10.243	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United)	Binary
10.173	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
9.725	What percentage of people in low-income countries will have recieved at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
9.624	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United)	Binary
8.288	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
7.354	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton & Hove Albion)	Binary
7.245	Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?	Binary
6.879	Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?	Binary
5.799	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur)	Binary
4.509	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
3.929	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
3.503	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
2.479	How many goals will Erling Haaland score in the Premier League 2022/23 season?	Continuous
2.274	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Liverpool)	Binary
2.117	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
2.034	Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023?	Binary
1.214	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City)	Binary
1.114	When will GPT-4 be announced?	Continuous
0.881	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brentford)	Binary
0.490	Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023?	Binary
0.352	Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?	Binary
0.002	What will be the average annual level of PM2.5 in Beijing, China in 2023?	Continuous
-0.327	Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024?	Binary
-1.039	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (March 1, 2023)	Binary
-2.772	What rank will "Improving Sino-Western Coordination on Global Catastrophic Risk" be on 80,000 Hours's "highest-impact career paths" list on January 1, 2024?	Continuous
-3.438	Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
-4.146	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
-5.717	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal)	Binary
-7.219	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
-8.184	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
-8.486	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
-10.117	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
-11.198	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
-16.448	Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023?	Binary
-17.999	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
-19.273	Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?	Binary
-22.510	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-31.291	What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (March 1, 2023)	Continuous
-31.801	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023)	Binary
-38.620	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
-46.152	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
-46.230	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
-49.724	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
-78.266	Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?	Binary
-100.958	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
-131.279	Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
-154.806	In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?	Binary
-154.873	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary